Thursday, March 31, 2016

Opening Day Decisions are O.D.D.

Welcome Raymond Desadier to WTHB as he pens his first contribution (the first of many, I hope!). And give him a follow on twitter @desadier19.

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Each new baseball season brings another year of fans questioning the decisions made by their favorite team. While it would seem to the casual observer that the opening day roster should be filled with the 25 best players or, at the very least, the 25 most deserving based on prior performance as well as spring statistics, it is never that simple.

For the Astros, there will be some very deserving players making AAA Fresno their home at the outset of the 2016 season, but this does not mean they will not be contributing at some point in 2016. General Manager Jeff Luhnow and field manager A.J. Hinch are tasked with managing their roster to be successful over a 162 game marathon rather than merely winning the first week in April. This coupled with contractual restrictions limits them on who stands on the chalk line on April 6, and leads to some ODD decisions.

A.J. Reed - May 2015
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Take Wandy Rodriguez for example: while he did have a remarkable spring until a rough outing Monday, there are others such as Michael Feliz, James Hoyt (despite Wednesday's tough outing), and Chris Devenski who you could argue are more deserving of a roster spot and offer greater upside. However, the Astros brass are planning for the entire season and would much rather have all four of these arms at their disposal. Wandy’s veteran status has earned him the right to decline minor league assignments so the only way to ensure he remains an Astro is to put him on the 25-man roster at the outset.

While it is likely disappointing for Feliz, Hoyt, Devenski, and others to miss out on the Opening Day festivities, they can still be difference makers. Take Carlos Correa for example: he did not make it to Houston until June yet still became a key factor in making playoffs en route to winning the Rookie of the Year award.

Speaking of Rookie of the Year candidates, one could also argue A.J. Reed deserves to be the Opening Day first baseman after an impressive spring. While most anyone will agree Reed has greater upside than Tyler White, White has earned the job not only this spring but also with his career performance. He deserves the shot not only to send a message to all Astros farmhands that their hard work will be rewarded, but also to determine just what he can do in the major leagues. If White continues to hit the way he has then he could be the designated hitter of the future, or stay at first should Reed turn out to be a bust. At the very least, he could perform well enough to become a valuable asset to trade. Adding both to the roster would be detrimental to their development because they both need to be in the lineup every day.

The same could be said of Colin Moran at third base. While Luis Valbuena is an outstanding defender and is capable of belting 25 home runs, his hitting still leaves much to be desired. However, Valbuena is a known quantity, and a team in contention would much rather have someone like him than an unknown such as Moran. The rebuild is over: we are playing for keeps now!

Something else to consider: spring statistics are extremely misleading. Rarely does the star of the Grapefruit League go on to win the MVP or Cy Young. Asher Wojciechowski had an outstanding performance in Spring 2015 but struggled mightily during the regular season in Houston. Sure Devenski has dominated and Reed and Moran have raked, but none of them have played a regular season game in AAA. Even players with extensive AAA experience struggle at the top level so it is naïve to think any of these players are the exception.

There are also the financial ramifications of them becoming Super Two players, which results in having to pay these players millions rather than thousands of dollars a year earlier. Whether you object to this strategy or not, the fact of the matter is Jim Crane and Luhnow are running a business and avoiding Super Two status is a sound business decision.

So while you may find some of the Opening Day Decisions rather ODD, just know there is a method to the madness.

Raymond Desadier
3/30/16

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Minor League Releases: 3/28

This is the part I hate. Particularly when I've had the pleasure of interviewing (and getting to know) six of the names on the list. Tyler Brunnemann is, apparently, being picked up by the Angels organization. I hope to see the rest get an opportunity with another affiliate as well.

LHP Steve Naemark - Released 3/28
RHP Jose Montero - Released 3/28
1B/OF Ryan Bottger - Released 3/28
RHP Kyle Westwood - Released 3/28
RHP Tyler Brunnemann - Released 3/28
RHP Austin Chrismon - Released 3/28
C Brian Holberton - Released 3/28
LHP Jordan Mills - Released 3/28
OF Sean McMullen - Released 3/28
RHP Samil de los Santos - Released 3/21

I wish each and every one of them the best of luck.


UPDATE 3/31: Per Evan Drellich, IF Joe Sclafani, RHP Travis Ballew, and RHP Jake Buchanan have also been released. Buchanan has agreed to a Minor League deal with the Cubs.

UPDATE 4/2: After scouring the transactions pages of all the affiliates on MiLB.com, RHPs Zac Grotz and Michel Martinez were released.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Astros Farm Report: 3/28

I opine on the Singleton/White and Heineman/Pena situations below. But first things first ...

WISHING A VERY HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO

3-28: IF Marcos Almonte (20)
3-30: SS Alex Bregman (22)
3-30: OF Jake Marisnick (25)
4-1: OF Cesar Cortez (17)

TWEETS OF THE WEEK

Astros Farm Twitter is in good shape for the season!




TRANSACTIONS

I heard from a good source that a few minor league players were released over the weekend, but the only moves that have been confirmed are the following. I will post further information when it has been verified.

LHP Neal Cotts - Released 3/25
RHP Troy Scribner - Traded to the Angels for cash considerations 3/26

NEWS AND LINKS

When I wrote last week's Farm Report, Tyler White was hitting .344/.389/.500. Four games later, make that .366/.460/.585. I know that it's "only Spring Training," but Holy Toledo!!!

Honestly, I do believe that Jon Singleton will get it together and will have a long, successful major league career. But it looks increasingly likely that his career will be with a team other than the Astros. I truly like Singleton personally. Yes, he's made mistakes in the past, but he has worked very hard over the last two years to make up for those mistakes. But, with that said, if he can't get it done at the major league level, he will likely lose that chance for the Astros permanently later this year when A.J. Reed takes that spot and gets his opportunity to show what he can do.

In the meantime, Tyler White has more than proven himself at the plate and has (as I predicted) shown himself to be a serviceable fielder who works hard and gives it his all whether playing at first or third. He can also DH until Evan Gattis makes it back from the DL. Everyone loves an underdog, especially one who is as modest and hard-working as White. Well, White is the ultimate underdog, drafted in the 33rd round in 2013 and possessing a less than optimal physique for the job. I truly hope that he is given the opportunity to show what he can do for the Astros to start the season. He has certainly earned it.

Another question mark as Spring Training winds down is who Houston's backup catcher will be with Max Stassi on the disabled list. I am extremely high on Tyler Heineman, but after much thought, it would probably make more sense for Roberto Pena (I just can't call him Bert!) to get the job IF the Astros decide not to go outside the system. Pena has profiled more as a backup catcher to this point with his bat lagging behind his strong defensive abilities so it would make sense for him to break in to the major leagues in that role. Heineman, on the other hand, has shown a strong enough bat over the years (along with solid defensive abilities) that he should be capable of earning a front line catching position at some point. I think Heineman would benefit from a little more time at AAA to further develop his offense. Then again, I think it is more likely that the Astros go outside the system for a backup backstop, but I believe that they have two very good options in-house.

In other news ...

The ValleyCats crew catches up with Jon Kemmer at Spring Training and brings us this fun interview.

And the love for Tyler White just kept coming with Evan Drellich penning one of his last pieces before moving on. He also weighed in on the backup catcher race.

And this piece just confused me since it was posted last week, but the video (and the story) appeared to be from 2014. Still a good piece on Tyson Perez's roping heritage.

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Nothing but 5-star reviews and this was the best one yet!
How someone can take all this information and keep it organized, let alone readable, is worthy of our admiration. The stats are out there for any of us to find, but few take the time. Luckily, the author, Jayne Hansen, is one of the few. But then she takes the stats and smooths out the edges off with her observations, interviews, and intuition. Like a great general manager, she combines the science and human element into a winning combination. If you are an Astros fan, it's a look into the future. If you are a fan of the Grizzlies, Hooks, et.al., it's what is coming to your town, in some cases in a matter of days. Enjoy!
Get yours today!


Friday, March 25, 2016

Looking at the Evan Gattis Trade

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution published this article on Tuesday focusing on former Astros RHP Mike Foltynewicz and his road to recovery from a blood clot and related surgery last year. His first appearance of the spring season in a split squad game was rated a solid "Holy Cow!"

Mike Foltynewicz - March 2013
Photo by Jayne Hansen

That led me to wonder how all the players from that January 2015 trade with Atlanta are faring since they left the Astros fold.

RHP Mike Foltynewicz is, according to the above article, expected to be able to join the Braves as soon as mid-April. He split his 2015 season between AAA Gwinnett and Atlanta. With Gwinnett, he was 1-6 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.376 WHIP. He walked 26 and struck 63 in 56.2 innings. For the Braves, Folty was 4-6 with a 5.71 ERA and a 1.627 WHIP, walking 29 and striking out 77 in 86.2 innings. Through two Spring Training appearances, Foltynewicz has a 4.76 ERA and a 0.882 WHIP in his 5.2 innings of work. He is 24.

RHP Andrew Thurman has only appeared in one Spring Training game with the big league club at this point, but he was perfect in that one inning. The former 2013 second rounder's 2015 season was a tale of two seasons. He was putting up very nice numbers in his first six appearances in High A (2.51 ERA and 1.206 WHIP in 32.2 IP), but then this happened. Thurman missed almost two months to the disabled list after the bus accident. After coming back, he put up a 5.02 ERA and a 1.413 WHIP in his final 13 appearances of the season and his Arizona Fall League Campaign was mostly forgettable. Thurman was ranked #28 in the Braves system in Baseball America's 2016 Prospect Handbook. He is also 24.

3B Rio Ruiz struggled in his first taste of AA for the Braves (.229/.331/.318 in 126 games), but this article from the Atlanta paper reports a newly focused and more mature Ruiz showed up for Spring Training this year. In six games with the big league club, he has hit .400/.455/.500. Ruiz, who turns 22 in May, was ranked #17 in the Braves system by Baseball America going in to the 2016 season.

In return for Foltynewicz, Thurman and Ruiz, the Astros obtained DH Evan Gattis and minor league right-hander James Hoyt. Gattis hit .246/.285/.463 with 20 doubles, a mind-boggling 11 triples and 27 home runs in his first season for the Astros in 2015. He is currently working his way back from an injury (sports hernia) and is not expected to be ready by opening day. Gattis is 29.

Hoyt's 3.49 ERA and 1.204 WHIP for AAA Fresno in 2015 is somewhat misleading as he was significantly stronger in the second half of the season. He built on that with an excellent showing in Venezuelan winter ball which I spoke with him about in this December 2015 interview. In eight Spring Training appearances, Hoyt is 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA and a 0.840 WHIP. He has held hitters to a .071 batting average. He was ranked #27 in the Astros system by Baseball America going in to the 2016 season despite being much older than the average prospect at 29 years of age (see the linked interview for more on that as well).

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Monday, March 21, 2016

Astros Farm Report: 3/21

Spring Training is in full swing and it's just 16 days until the Astros four minor league affiliates start their seasons! Here's what's happening in Astros MiLB land.

WISHING A VERY HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO

3-21: OF Andrew Aplin (25)
3-22: RHP Ezequiel Madera (20)
3-23: RHP Adam Whitt (23)
3-23: IF Chan Moon (25)
3-23: LHP Steve Naemark (26)
3-24: RHP Jacob Dorris (23)
3-25: LHP Neal Cotts (36)
3-26: RHP Cristian Javier (19)
3-27: 1B Felix Lucas (19)

Andrew Aplin - Birthday Boy

TWEETS OF THE WEEK


Join the crowd, Eric!
NEWS AND LINKS

The World Baseball Classic Qualifying Rounds in Mexicali and Panama City were played over the last few days. A couple of current Astros minor league pitchers were on the roster for Spain: Rogelio Armenteros (2.0IP 9.00ERA 2.000WHIP) and Carlos Sierra (1.1IP 0.00ERA 1.500WHIP). The Spanish team lost to Colombia and France in the double elimination.

OF Leo Heras played for the Mexican team. In three games, Heras hit .333/.429/.833 and contributed a two-run home run in the finale last night as Mexico defeated Nicaragua to advance to the March 2017 World Baseball Classic.

Friend of the blog and former Astro farmhand, lefty Alex Sogard, was on the Czech Republic team for the second time, having appeared for them during the last WBC. In 6.2 innings, he had a 0.00 ERA and a 0.750 WHIP. The Czech team was eliminated, but received accolades for the progress they made since their last appearance in the Classic, particularly their pitching.

In Spring Training action, Tyler White continues to do his thang. He's doing what he has done since drafted. He's hitting like crazy (.344/.389/.500 in 14 games). I know that it's a small sample size, but inquiring minds want to know if he might not get that elusive 40th roster spot. Probably not, with the need for a backup catcher, but it's certainly one of the biggest stories of the spring.

In the meantime, Michael Feliz is reminding everyone that he would like a chance to join Fiers, Feldman, Fister and Fields when the Astros break camp. He has appeared in four games (one start) and has compiled a 0.00 ERA and a 1.300 WHIP in 10 innings, striking out eight and walking three. This fact was brought to you by the letter "F."

Jose de Jesus Ortiz had some good pieces on up-and-comers RHP David Paulino and RHP Joe Musgrove on what they took away from big league camp. And, of course, Tyler White continues to impress.

From Evan Drellich, we find that A.J. Reed has been getting shifted on for years.

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo weighs in on the depth of the Astros system, despite trades and graduations.

And a reminder that being a minor leaguer isn't all fun and games.

Friday, March 18, 2016

Checking in on RHP James Hoyt

RHP James Hoyt is having a nice spring for himself as he looks to impress A.J. Hinch and company. He currently has a 1.69 ERA and 1.125 WHIP and has held batters to a .105 batting average in his five appearances out of the bullpen. Here is what I wrote about him in the 2016 Houston Farm System Handbook:

RHP James Hoyt
  • B/T: R/R
  • H/W: 6’5” 220#
  • Born: 9/30/86 in Boise, Idaho
  • Age on 4/1/16: 29
  • Acquisition: Obtained, along with C Evan Gattis, in a January 2015 trade that sent 3B Rio Ruiz, RHP Mike Foltynewicz and RHP Andrew Thurman to the Braves; originally signed by the Braves in November 2012
  • 2014: 5th Season (3rd in affiliated ball); Fresno (AAA); missed approximately one month from mid-May to mid-June
BASIC PITCHING INFO
Year
Level
W-L
IP
G
GS
SV
2013
A+/AA
3-3
82.1
39
3
1
2014
AA/AAA
3-3
59.2
52
0
7
2015
AAA
0-1
49.0
47
0
9
All
-
6-7
191.0
138
3
17
BASIC STATS PLUS FIP AND BABIP
Year
Level
IP
ERA
FIP
WHIP
AVG
BABIP
2013
A+
49.2
4.89
2.81
1.289
.213
.321
2013
AA
32.2
2.48
2.58
0.918
.147
.195
2014
AA
31.2
1.14
1.83
0.916
.170
.261
2014
AAA
28.0
5.46
4.50
1.857
.314
.400
2015
AAA
49.0
3.49
2.02
1.204
.246
.362
All
-
191.0
3.58
-
1.225
-
-
BB, SO AND HR STATS
Year
BB/9
SO/9
HR
HRR
HR/9
2013
4.2
11.5
4
8
0.4
2014
3.6
11.6
5
5
0.8
2015
2.0
12.1
1
1
0.2
All
3.4
11.7
10
14
0.5
Additional 2015 Stats:
  • SO%: 44.9 (58 SOS; 8 SOL)
  • P/S%: 66.5
  • BQS%: 45.5 (5 of 11)
  • IRS%: 42.9 (3 of 7)
  • SB%: 100 (7 of 7)
  • PO: 0
  • DP: 0
  • E: 0
  • High GS: N/A

Awards/Honors/Rankings:
  • Ranked #30 in the Braves system by Baseball America going in to the 2014 season
  • 2014 Southern League Midseason All-Star
  • Astros July 2015 Fresno Pitcher of the Month
  • Ranked #27 in the Astros system going in to the 2016 season

Postseason Stats:
2015 Fresno (Pacific Coast League): 0-0 with 3 saves, a 1.08 ERA and a 0.600 WHIP in 7 games (8.1IP)

2015 Fall/Winter League Stats:
Venezuelan Winter League: 1.86 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in 19 games (19.1IP)

Narrative:
Hoyt has an interesting back story (see link below) and didn’t even start playing affiliated baseball until he was 26 years old. He spent his third affiliated season playing for the Astros AAA Fresno Grizzlies affiliate, a team that won both the Pacific Coast League Championship and the AAA National Championship, and had a very good season, compiling a 3.48 ERA and a 1.204 WHIP with 9 saves in 47 appearances. However, after spending almost a month on the disabled list from mid-May to mid-June, Hoyt really kicked it into gear. Following that DL stint, he had a 1.56 ERA and a 0.837 WHIP in his final 33 regular season games.

Hoyt works off of a mid-90’s fastball coupled with a hard slider, but toward the end of the season, he started working on adding a splitter to the mix. He refined that pitch in his excellent winter ball stint in Venezuela and credits it with much of his success. Hoyt had the highest strikeout per nine inning rate of all qualified pitchers in the Astros system in 2015 and the second lowest FIP.

With the addition of the splitter to his already impressive arsenal, Hoyt will likely get the opportunity to help out in the Minute Maid Park bullpen at some point in 2016.

Extras:

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For information on 272 additional players in the Astros system, get your copy of the 2016 Farm System Handbook today! It is compatible with Android and IOS and can be downloaded to your desktop, laptop, tablet and smart phone, or you can just read it in the cloud! Click below for a super-sized preview.

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Astros Farm Report: 3/13

Nothing but five-star reviews!!! Here are just three of them:
The amount of information is staggering, but presented in a way that's easy to read. A must-have for Astros fans who don't want to look like bandwagoners.
Jayne Hansen has done it again! She is a human encyclopedia of Astros knowledge. This book is great because Jayne lends her knowledge, sense of humor, and fantastic photos to you...and for 10 bucks, it's an absolute steal!
A wealth of information presented in an easy to read format. A must for any Astros fan who wants to keep up on what's happening in the Minors. Well done!
Get yours today!


Now back to our regularly scheduled programming ...

WISHING A VERY HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO

3-13: RHP Abdiel Saldana (20)
3-13: 1B Randy Vasquez (20)
3-14: IF Marwin Gonzalez (27)
3-15: C Max Stassi (25)
3-16: LHP Reymin Guduan (24)
3-17: RHP Cesar Valdez (31)

TWEETS OF THE WEEK
TRANSACTIONS

A few new signings of Latin players came out recently:

P Jesus Bernaez
SS Samir Caraballo (previously reported in November)
SS Eduardo Guzman
P Juan Infante
P Kilvio Peralta

There is no readily available information on Venezuelan players Bernaez and Infante (even whether they are righties or lefties), but fellow countryman Guzman did play in the Venezuelan winter league in 2015, hitting .323/.373/.355 in 25 games in the Liga Paralela. He also played in one game for the big league club, collecting a double. The signing of Colombian-born Caraballo was first reported in November. Kilvio Peralta (alternately Quilvio) is a 19-year old Dominican. A rough translation of what was written about him says:
Quilvio Peralta, is described by Roman Ocumarez, scout Houston Astros as "an athlete with an amazing physique and great ease, which in their assessments has shown to have excellent straight and a very good mix of pitches, this promise be a player with a great future in professional baseball."
The 2015-2016 Offseason Transactions Master List has been updated here.

NEWS AND LINKS

In case you missed it, James from Astros County, Eric from Climbing Tal's Hill and I all weighed in on the upcoming season over at Cards Conclave. We were all on our good behavior and didn't mention Chris Correa or hacking.

And another in case you missed it can be found here as I talked all about Astros prospects with Eric Huysman last week Talking Stros.

And a third in case you missed it is my interview with Astros RHP Ryan Deemes. Yes ma'am!

Everybody is on the Tyler White train now. I wish I'd seen that coming. Oh that's right. I did! Speaking of which, White isn't currently on the 40-man roster, but he'd like to be:


A look at how the upcoming Astros Spring Training move to West Palm Beach is a part of a big shake-up in the Grapefruit League.

Bregman, Davis, Fisher and Kemmer were the first players to be re-assigned to minor league camp. Ortiz had the story. Ortiz also had a great piece in today's Chronicle about Juan Minaya's perseverance in his quest to master English.

Don't forget. Tyler White isn't the only player I identified as a Really Good Player before Baseball America and the like caught on. See who's coming next!