Tuesday, February 27, 2018

2018 Astros Consensus Top 32 Prospect Rankings

All of the major prospect rankings for 2018 are now in (see separate rankings from Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and FanGraphs below). I have taken all of these rankings and compiled them into this 2018 Astros Consensus Top Prospect list.

Forrest Whitley - August 2017
Photo by Jayne Hansen

The top 25 prospects were on at least three of the four rankings and the bottom seven were on two of the four rankings. The consensus rankings are, more or less, an average of the player's rankings on the list, with the exception of BP's "Next 10" which were all assigned a fixed median number (which was averaged with the other rankings) since they were not given an actual numerical ranking. Now that that's clear as mud, here is the consensus ranking list ...

CONSENSUS ASTROS TOP 32 LIST
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (on 4 of 4 ranking lists)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (4/4)
3T. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (4/4)
3T. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (4/4)
5. SS Freudis Nova (4/4)
6. RHP David Paulino (3/4)
7. RHP Jorge Alcala (3/4)
8T. RHP Hector Perez (4/4)
8T. RHP Rogelio Armenteros (4/4)
10. LHP Cionel Perez (4/4)
11. RHP Corbin Martin (4/4)
12. 3B J.D. Davis (4/4)
13. RHP Jairo Solis (4/4)
15. 3B Joe Perez (3/4)
16. SS Jonathan Arauz (4/4)
17T. C Garrett Stubbs (4/4)
17T. LHP Framber Valdez (3/4)
19. OF Ronnie Dawson (3/4)
20. RHP Dean Deetz (3/4)
21. RHP Riley Ferrell (3/4)
22. OF J.J. Matijevic (4/4)
23. OF Myles Straw (4/4)
24. RHP Cristian Javier (3/4)
25. RHP Jandel Gustave (3/4)
The following players were included on only 2 of the 4 rankings used:
27. OF Carlos Machado (2/4)
31. LHP Brett Adcock (2/4)

Others who were listed on only one of the four rankings: C Max Stassi (FG), C Nathan Perry (BP), OF Drew Ferguson (MLBP), LHP Reymin Guduan (FG), 1B A.J. Reed (BA), RHP Tyler Ivey (FG), RHP Elian Rodriguez (BA), RHP Nick Hernandez (FG), RHP Peter Solomon (FG), RHP Brandon Bielak (FG), IF Josh Rojas (FG), RHP Kyle Serrano (FG), 3B Randy Cesar (FG) and SS Deury Carrasco (FG).

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS - December 5, 2017
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (10th on the BP top 101 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (20th on the BP top 101 overall list)
3. RHP J.B. Bukauskas
4. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez
5. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
6. IF Jonathan Arauz
7. OF Gilberto Celestino
8. RHP David Paulino
9. 3B Colin Moran - traded to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole
10. RHP Corbin Martin

BP's Next 10 (not ranked; in alphabetical order)
3B J.D. Davis
OF Carlos Machado
SS Freudis Nova
LHP Cionel Perez
RHP Hector Perez
C Nathan Perry
LHP Patrick Sandoval
RHP Jairo Solis
OF Myles Straw
C Garrett Stubbs
Plus One
OF J.J. Matijevic

BASEBALL AMERICA - January 18, 2018 + Prospect Handbook released in early February
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (10th on the BA top 100 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (15th on the BA top 100 overall list)
3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (62nd on the BA top 100 overall list)
4. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (76th on the BA top 100 overall list)
5. SS Freudis Nova
6. RHP Jairo Solis
7. RHP Hector Perez
8. RHP Jorge Alcala
(3B Colin Moran was between Alcala and Paulino in Handbook; traded to Pittsburgh)
9. RHP David Paulino
10. 3B J.D. Davis
11. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
12. LHP Cionel Perez
13. LHP Framber Valdez
14. 3B Joe Perez
15. RHP Corbin Martin
16. OF Myles Straw
17. C Garrett Stubbs
(OF Jason Martin was between Stubbs and Celestino in Handbook; traded to Pittsburgh)
18. OF Gilberto Celestino
19. OF Ronnie Dawson
20. RHP Dean Deetz
21. SS Jonathan Arauz
22. 1B A.J. Reed
23. RHP Cristian Javier
24. OF J.J. Matijevic
25. RHP Riley Ferrell
26. RHP Jandel Gustave
27. RHP Elian Rodriguez
28. SS Miguelangel Sierra

Note that the above numbers were adjusted to exclude players who were traded.

MLB PIPELINE - February 23, 2018
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (9th on the MLBP top 100 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (17th on the MLBP top 100 overall list)
3. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (76th on the MLBP top 100 overall list)
4. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez
5. SS Freudis Nova
6. LHP Cionel Perez
7. RHP Jorge Alcala
8. RHP David Paulino
9. 3B J.D. Davis
10. RHP Corbin Martin
11. RHP Hector Perez
12. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
13. RHP Jairo Solis
14. 3B Joe Perez
15. OF Ronnie Dawson
16. LHP Framber Valdez
17. OF Drew Ferguson
18. RHP Dean Deetz
19. RHP Cristian Javier
20. RHP Riley Ferrell
21. OF Myles Straw
22. SS Jonathan Arauz
23. OF Gilberto Celestino
24. C Garrett Stubbs
25. OF J.J. Matijevic
26. RHP Jandel Gustave
27. C Chuckie Robinson
28. LHP Brett Adcock
29. 3B/C Abraham Toro-Hernandez
30. RHP Brandon Bailey

FANGRAPHS - February 23, 2018
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (8th on the FG top 100 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (10th on the FG top 100 overall list)
3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (44th on the FG top 100 overall list)
4. RHP J.B. Bukauskas
5. RHP Hector Perez
6. LHP Cionel Perez
7. SS Freudis Nova
8. RHP Corbin Martin
9. 3B J.D. Davis
10. OF Gilberto Celestino
11. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
12. RHP Jairo Solis
13. C Max Stassi
14. RHP Jorge Alcala
15. C Garrett Stubbs
16. SS Jonathan Arauz
17. RHP Riley Ferrell
18. RHP Brandon Bailey
19. 3B Joe Perez
20. LHP Reymin Guduan
21. RHP Dean Deetz
22. 3B/C Abraham Toro-Hernandez
23. OF Ronnie Dawson
24. OF J.J. Matijevic
25. LHP Framber Valdez
26. RHP Jandel Gustave
27. RHP Tyler Ivey
Other Prospects of Note, In Order of Preference
28. LHP Patrick Sandoval
29. RHP Cristian Javier
30. OF Carlos Machado
31. C Chuckie Robinson
32. RHP Nick Hernandez
33. RHP Peter Solomon
34. RHP Brandon Bielak
35. LHP Brett Adcock
36. SS Miguelangel Sierra
37. IF Josh Rojas
38. RHP Kyle Serrano
39. OF Myles Straw
40. 3B Randy Cesar
41. SS Deury Carrasco

>>>>>>><<<<<<<

As a reminder, these were the players who were consensus prospects in 2017. Players had to appear on at least three of the four rankings used and are in order by averaged rankings.

2017 Consensus Top Prospect List

1. RHP Francis Martes - Graduated to MLB
2. OF Kyle Tucker
3. RHP David Paulino - Missed 80 games in 2017 for failed drug test; followed by surgery in October to remove a bone spur from his elbow
4. RHP Franklin Perez - Included in the trade for Justin Verlander
5. RHP Forrest Whitley
6. OF Derek Fisher - Graduated to MLB
7. OF Teoscar Hernandez - Included in the trade for Francisco Liriano
8. OF Ramon Laureano - Traded to A's for Brandon Bailey
9. C Garrett Stubbs
10. OF Daz Cameron - Included in the trade for Justin Verlander
11. SS Miguelangel Sierra
12. 3B J.D. Davis - Has not exceeded rookie limits
13. RHP Jandel Gustave - Missed the majority of the 2017 season after undergoing TJ surgery
14. 3B Colin Moran - Included in the trade for Gerrit Cole

Additionally, these players appeared on two of the four lists and are in order of averaged rankings.

IF Yulieski Gurriel - Graduated to MLB
1B A.J. Reed - Exceeded rookie limits in 2016
OF Gilberto Celestino
SS Anibal Sierra
LHP Cionel Perez
OF Ronnie Dawson
IF Jonathan Arauz
SS Freudis Nova
C Jake Rogers - Included in trade for Justin Verlander
OF Jason Martin - Included in the trade for Gerrit Cole
1B Yordan Alvarez
RHP Brady Rodgers - Had TJ surgery in May 2017
OF Stephen Wrenn
RHP James Hoyt - Graduated to MLB

Also, check out my series on players who are Beyond the Top 30
Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen
Third Basemen
Center Field
Right Field
Left Field
Catchers
Utility Players
LHP
RHP

Monday, February 26, 2018

Astros Farm Report: 2/26

Catching you up on the latest Astros MiLB news ...

WISHING A VERY HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO

Corey Julks - MiLB Headshot

2-26: C Mike Papierski (26)
2-26: RHP Fabricio Reina (18)
2-26: RHP Hector Rondon (30)
2-26: RHP Oscar Severino (20)
2-27: OF Corey Julks (22)
2-27: RHP Felipe Tejada (20)
3-1: LHP Tim Hardy (22)
3-1: C Lorenzo Quintana (28)
3-3: RHP Angel Macuare (18)

ROSTER MOVES/TRANSACTIONS

2-26: C Lorenzo Quintana assigned to Buies Creek (Cuban signed by the Astros last fall)
2-21: RHP Forrest Whitley (Corpus) suspended 50 games for a violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program

I'm disappointed with Whitley because he is super smart and this was a NOT super smart move, but I feel certain that he will learn from the experience and work even harder to overcome the negative stigma. (In other words, he's a good kid. Give him a break. If he does it again, feel free to rip him a new one!)

Plus a couple more free agents (who were Astros last season) have signed with other teams this past week: OF Cameron Maybin (Marlins) and LHP Francisco Liriano (Tigers). Those who remain free agents are:

RHP Tyler Clippard - ended the 2017 season with the Astros
C Eduardo de Oleo - ended the 2017 season with the Fresno Grizzlies
RHP David Martinez - ended the 2017 season with the Fresno Grizzlies
OF Rico Noel - ended the 2017 season with the Fresno Grizzlies

You can check the cumulative Astros offseason transaction list here to see if you've missed any of the posted moves this offseason.

SPRING TRAINING MINOR LEAGUE STANDOUTS

Who were the minor league standouts in the first weekend of Spring Training games? I'm glad you asked ...

RHP Rogelio Armenteros


2B Ryne Birk

NEWS AND LINKS

MiLB has started up a farm system ranking based on position players and started with the bottom 10 systems (which, of course, does not include the Astros!).

MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs both released their top prospect lists last week. I will be updating my Astros consensus top prospect list shortly.

In case you missed it, I started a "Beyond the Top 30" series, looking at both those Astros players who are considered Top 30 prospects and others at each position who may not be top talents (or may grow to be), but will be interesting to watch nonetheless. So far we've looked at ...

Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen
Third Basemen
Center Field
Right Field
Left Field
Catchers - Coming this week (I hope)

OK, Baseball, now that the Olympics are over, you have my full attention. But I do plan to live in the afterglow of this epic win for a little while longer ...

Embed from Getty Images

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Beyond the Top 30: Left Field

As the old year fades away and the new season approaches, it's time to start looking at those players of interest who are beyond the Top 30. These players may not ever make a Top 30 list (or they may), but a combination of projections, actual results, incremental improvements and intangibles keep them in the mix as interesting players to watch. I am not including any players in these posts who have already made their major league debuts since, presumably, anyone reading my blog is already very familiar with those players.

Note: Many of the 2018 player rankings haven't been released yet so I will be using the MLB Pipeline postseason list, the Baseball Prospectus Top 10+ list and Baseball America's Top 10 list (plus their 2018 Prospect Handbook) to denote those players who are currently considered Top 30 type players in the Astros system. Once FanGraphs weighs in and MLB Pipeline posts their 2018 pre-season list, I will post a consensus top prospect list.

[UPDATES TO FINAL 2018 PRE-SEASON RANKINGS SHOWN IN RED.
BA= BASEBALL AMERICA, BP = BASEBALL PROSPECTUS,
FG=FANGRAPHS, MLB = MLB PIPELINE]

[NOTE: Almost all of these players have appeared at multiple outfield positions. For the most part, these lists are based upon the primary position the player appeared at in the 2017 season.]

LEFTFIELDERS IN THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)

Ronnie Dawson - July 2017
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Ronnie Dawson (L/R) - MLB #15, BA #21, FG #23
Ronnie Dawson, the Astros 2nd round draft pick in 2016 out of The Ohio State University, opened a lot of eyes in the second half of the 2017 season, mine included. Check out my interview with Dawson from last summer to see what his coaches and teammates have to say about him (SPOILER: They really like him!). After a tepid April and May at the plate (.213/.295/.343), Dawson broke things open, hitting .314/.401/.490 the rest of the way, peaking in July with a gaudy .373/.448/.618 batting line. In 129 games (116 with Low A Quad Cities and 13 with High A Buies Creek), Dawson collected 26 doubles, five triples, 14 home runs, 67 RBI, 88 runs and 18 stolen bases (11 caught stealing). He walked 59 times to 110 strikeouts, improving on his walk-to-strikeout rate drastically in the latter part of the season (16BB:44K in April/May and 43BB:66K from June on). Dawson has good bat speed, athleticism, power potential and surprising speed on the bases; his hit tool against his fellow lefties is a work in progress. He is a solid, if unspectacular, defensive player who provided errorless defense in his time in left field in 2017. Dawson, who will be 23 in May, is ranked #21 in the Astros system by Baseball America going into the 2018 season and was ranked #30 by MLB Pipeline's 2017 postseason list (they have not released their 2018 rankings yet).

J.J. Matijevic (L/R) - BP #11+, FG #24, MLB #25, BA #26
Coincidentally, Matijevic was another 2nd round pick by the Astros (as compensation for those cheatin' Cardinals!), selected in 2017 out of the University of Arizona. I'm listing Matijevic as a leftfielder simply because that's where he played all but one game in his inaugural season. He was drafted by the Astros as a second baseman, but it is doubtful that he would ever flourish at that position. More likely than not, Matijevic, who is more known for his offense than his defense, will play either left field or first base as his career unfolds. Offensively, Matijevic is expected to build on the work he did later in his college career which propelled him into an elite group of college hitters. Both his hit tool and raw power are ranked as above average while his defense lags behind. In his first professional season, he tailed off later in the season, ending with a .228/.290/.384 line with 14 doubles, seven home runs and a surprising 11 stolen bases (considering scouts find his speed to be "underwhelming") in 53 games with short season A Tri-City and a final six games with Low A Quad Cities. He was ranked #26 by Baseball America in their 2018 Prospect Handbook, #16 by MLB Pipeline in their 2017 postseason ranking and in Baseball Prospectus's "Next 10." Matijevic turned 22 in November.

Note: I included the highly ranked Yordan Alvarez in the first base write-up (see the link at the bottom), but he is as likely to end up in left field as at first base, depending on where he shows the most value in the system.

LEFTFIELDERS BEYOND THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)

Alejandro Garcia - April 2017
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Garcia, one of the Astros Cuban signings in 2015, had an uneven season in 2017. After hitting only .202/.244/.325 in 42 games with AA Corpus, he was promoted to AAA Fresno on June 1st and managed a .269/.312/.356 in his 50 games at that level, despite really fading down the stretch. He had an overall .235/.278/.341 line with 18 doubles, two triples and four home runs in 92 games as compared to his .291/.323/.365 line in 2016 in 94 games (26 games at High A, 51 games at AA and 17 games at AAA). One of the biggest differences between his 2016 and 2017 campaigns was his ability to hit against left-handed pitching. In 2016, Garcia hit .337/.352/.488 against lefties vs. .220/.281/.354 in 2017. Adding to his on-base woes, Garcia rarely walked in 2017 (nine walks to 45 strikeouts in his 92 games). It looks as though his 2017 season might have been a bit of a fluke down season for him (here's his FanGraphs page), so I'll be keeping an eye on him in 2018 to see which Alejandro Garcia shows up.
Key: Consistency! Also, learn that walks are not a bad thing.

Jon Kemmer (L/L)
Kemmer, the Astros 21st round pick in 2013 out of Brewton-Parker College in Georgia, saw his fifth professional season come to an abrupt stop in early August when he was hit by a pitch, resulting in a broken bone in his hand. In his 87 games with AAA Fresno, Kemmer hit an overall .299/.399/.533 with 17 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs, 57 RBI and 44 walks to 95 strikeouts. He was particularly productive in June and July, hitting .362/.486/.652 in 41 games. Kemmer, an aggressive hitter, does have some swing-and-miss in his game (26.5 K%), but when he connects, his power really shows. He had a .234 ISO for 2017 and a 10.1% XBH rate and he can hit the ball with power to all fields. Kemmer is a solid defender in left and can play right as well, but his average arm and his fringe average speed will keep him out of center field. Kemmer has had a couple of injuries that have cut into his playing time, but he has shown that he is a capable power producer in the high minors. At 27 and going into his sixth professional season, he really doesn't have much left to prove in the minor leagues and should get his MLB opportunity in 2018, but his best opportunity may very well be by way of a trade to another organization in which he isn't blocked by so much talent.
Key: Fine-tune both his defense and offense to get the most out of his abilities, and stay healthy! Good reps now will definitely help him later as he waits for the call.

Others to Watch:

Wilson Amador (R/R)
Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2013 for $400,000, Amador was ranked as the #24 international prospect at the time, but an elbow injury that required surgery to repair a growth plate fracture reduced his expected $875,000 bonus by more than half. At the time of his signing, he was cited for his "athleticism and raw tools," particularly his plus arm and plus speed. But he will be entering his fifth professional season in 2018 and has yet to play more than 64 games in a season or any higher than rookie league Greeneville. He showed some progression with the bat over the 2017 season, ending with a .270/.308/.356 line, but he will have to move much more quickly at this point to avoid being left behind. He turned 21 in December.

Kendy Moya (S/R)
I know absolutely nothing about Moya that I can't find on his stats pages, but there are a couple of things that can be found there that intrigue me. For one, he's a switch-hitter who hits more or less equally well from both sides of the plate (more power from the left and higher average from the right). Secondly, his walk-to-strikeout ratio (49 walks to 59 strikeouts) tells me that he's a fairly disciplined hitter. For the 2017 season (his second in the DSL), he hit .241/.400/.327 with eight doubles, three triples, one home run and he stole 12 bases (five caught stealing) in 62 games. Although he played the majority of his games in left, he also played at short, second, third and in right field so he may be a player who ultimately better fits as a utility player. Again, nothing earth-shaking about Moya, but enough to pique my interest. Moya turned 19 in December and certainly needs to be challenged to tougher competition than the DSL in order to see what he can do.

Previous Posts:
Shortstop
Second Base
First Base

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Astros Farm Report: 2/20

Catching you up on the latest Astros MiLB offseason news ...

WISHING A VERY HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO

Rodrigo Ayarza - July 2016
Photo by Jayne Hansen

2-19: OF Josh Reddick (31)
2-20: IF Rodrigo Ayarza (23)
2-20: C Brian McCann (34)
2-20: RHP Justin Verlander (35)
2-23: Marco Van der Wijst (20)

ROSTER MOVES/TRANSACTIONS

Again, nothing exciting happening this past week. The only Astros-related transaction I've seen is that free agent Reid Brignac, former Fresno Grizzlies infielder, signed a minor league deal with the Nationals.

You can check the cumulative Astros offseason transaction list here to see if you've missed any of the posted moves this offseason.

NEWS AND LINKS

Forgot to post this last week. Do you prefer Woodpeckers or Fatbacks?

Another name change, but this one is temporary. The Corpus Christi Hooks will become the Blue Ghosts for one weekend in June.

In case you missed it, I've been gathering the Astros Top Prospect info in one place and will put together a consensus list when everyone has weighed in. Updated with Baseball America's Top 30 going into 2018.

Here is the Astros Spring Training broadcast schedule. Yes, Astros baseball will be available on your radio and/or TV starting this Friday!!!

Lefty Brett Adcock is ready for the coming season. h/t to Sam Levitt

Thomas Eshelman, an under-the-radar piece of the Ken Giles trade to the Phillies, is ready for his close up.

And one last non-baseball item. High-fives to the Shibutani duo!

via GIPHY

In case you missed it, I started a "Beyond the Top 30" series, looking at both those Astros players who are considered Top 30 prospects and others at each position who may not be top talents (or may grow to be), but will be interesting to watch nonetheless. So far we've looked at ...

Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen
Third Basemen
Center Field
Right Field
Left Field - Coming this week

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Beyond the Top 30: Right Field

As the old year fades away and the new season approaches, it's time to start looking at those players of interest who are beyond the Top 30. These players may not ever make a Top 30 list (or they may), but a combination of projections, actual results, incremental improvements and intangibles keep them in the mix as interesting players to watch. I am not including any players in these posts who have already made their major league debuts since, presumably, anyone reading my blog is already very familiar with those players.

Note: Many of the 2018 player rankings haven't been released yet so I will be using the MLB Pipeline postseason list, the Baseball Prospectus Top 10+ list and Baseball America's Top 10 list to denote those players who are currently considered Top 30 type players in the Astros system. Once FanGraphs weighs in, Baseball America publishes their Top 30 and MLB Pipeline posts their 2018 pre-season list, I will post a consensus top prospect list.

[UPDATES TO FINAL 2018 PRE-SEASON RANKINGS SHOWN IN RED.
BA= BASEBALL AMERICA, BP = BASEBALL PROSPECTUS,
FG=FANGRAPHS, MLB = MLB PIPELINE]

[NOTE: Almost all of these players have appeared at multiple outfield positions. For the most part, these lists are based upon the primary position the player appeared at in the 2017 season.]

RIGHTFIELDERS IN THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)

Carlos Machado - August 2016
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Carlos Machado (R/R) - BP 11+, FG 28+
At this point, Machado is noted as a top prospect on only one list, that of Baseball Prospectus who has him as one of their "Next 10." And, although Kyle Tucker and Myles Straw played a considerable number of games in right field in 2017, Machado is the only listed prospect for whom right field was his primary position. Machado was originally signed by the Astros in August 2014, and 2017 was his third professional season. He did have good success at the plate in 2017, hitting a combined .324/.387/.462 with six doubles, four triples and two home runs between 33 games in the Gulf Coast League and eight games with rookie level Greeneville, but personally I feel that he should have been challenged to higher levels at this point in his development. BP really likes his hit tool and feel for hitting, but tempers their enthusiasm by saying that Machado will either need to hit at an elite level or develop more power in order to be successful. Machado will be 20 in June.

RIGHTFIELDERS BEYOND THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)

Carmen Benedetti - July 2017
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Benedetti got off to a slow start in his second professional season in 2017, hitting only .219/.306/.281 in April for Low A Quad Cities, but he made adjustments and by July, he slashed .402/.492/.523 in 28 games, leading to an early August promotion to High A Buies Creek. For the season combined, he hit .268/.341/.415 with 27 doubles, one triple and five home runs. He walked 60 times to 68 strikeouts in 92 games. Benedetti was drafted in the 12th round in 2016 out of the University of Michigan where he was a two-way player. His strong left arm translated into 11 outfield assists in 2017, six of those from right field. Benedetti's plus defense, good on-base skills, great gap power (and plus-plus baseball name) make him one of my favorite follows on this list. He turned 23 in October.
Key: Honestly, Benedetti just needs to keep doing what he's been doing as he climbs the ladder to the higher levels of the organization. With just a little added strength to his already strong frame, I can see some of his gap power translating to more home runs, adding to an already solid portfolio of skills.

Gonzalez signed with the Astros out of Venezuela in July 2016 and played his first professional season in 2017. In 59 games in the Dominican Summer League, he hit .226/.355/.249. Gonzalez really showed improvement as the season progressed, finishing with a .302/.446/.302 line in 16 games in August. At the time he signed, he was lauded for his ability to hit for contact, baserunning instincts, plate discipline and ability to hit to all fields. Gonzalez didn't exhibit much in the way of power (four doubles were his only extra base hits), but he did show really good on-base skills, decent baserunning (11 stolen bases; 8 caught stealing) and solid defensive abilities (no errors in 43 games in right plus six outfield assists, four from right). Oh, and he did all of that at the ripe old age of 17. He will not turn 18 until May 27th.
Key: At his age, the only thing he can really do is keep working, keep listening to his coaches/trainers and have fun!

Corey Julks (R/R)
Drafted in the 8th round in 2017 out of the University of Houston, Julks didn't have the best professional debut, hitting only .176/.311/.235 in 32 games for Tri-City, but he did manage to steal nine bases (two caught stealing) and walk 18 times to only 19 strikeouts. In Baseball America's annual draft report write-up, they called Julks one of the best athletes in the Astros 2017 class, citing his strength, speed and raw power. Prior to the draft, Julks was #500 on BA's Top 500 draft list, but some scouts were concerned about his bat path. All of this tells me that Julks is a work in progress and 2018 will likely be pivotal in defining Julks as a player.
Key: Hone in on the type of player he wants to be and work toward that goal.

Chas McCormick (R/L)
McCormick is one of my "intangibles guys," one whose baseball skills will play up because of his work ethic, intensity, team mentality and other non-baseball skills. McCormick was a senior sign out of Millersville University (PA) in the 21st round in 2017; he held the college record for hits, runs, RBI and triples, and his college coach called him "unbelievably clutch." That translated into a first pro season in which McCormick hit .298/.355/.399 with nine doubles, one triple, two home runs, 22 RBI, six stolen bases (four caught stealing) and 15 walks to only 20 strikeouts in 51 games (the majority of which were at Low A Quad Cities). He also hit .382/.447/.618 with two outs and runners in scoring position. And in nine postseason games, he hit .371/.465/.457 with one double, one triple and seven walks to three strikeouts. Defensively, he was errorless in games at all three outfield positions for the season. He will be 23 on April 19th.
Key: Since McCormick wasn't a top draft pick and, as a senior sign, presumably didn't have a big signing bonus, he doesn't represent a huge financial investment on the part of the Astros. The harsh reality of that is he will have to work twice as hard as higher ranked players to continue moving forward in the organization. But, personally, I think he is up to the job.

Luis Payano (R/R)
The main reason that I'm including Payano on this list is because he was the highest paid international player signed by the Astros in the July 2012 signing period, with a $500,000 pay day, and the Astros will give him every chance to succeed. My main concern with Payano is that he will be entering his 6th season in 2018 and has only played 24 games as high as Low A and has averaged only 46 games per season thus far in his career. In 44 games in 2017 (20 at Tri-City and 24 at Quad Cities), he hit a combined .248/.306/.441 with 11 doubles, one triple and five home runs, peaking at the end of the season (.292/.370/.458 in 21 games in August). At the time he was signed, Baseball America liked Payano for his above average arm, good bat speed and running ability, but thought his raw tools were ahead of his skills. Personally, I have enjoyed watching Payano play. He plays all out and possesses an infectious personality. I would really like to see him succeed.
Key: Payano, who will be 22 on May 12th has to be challenged to higher levels of competition and he will have to show that he is up to the task. And all of that needs to start really accelerating.

Stephen Wrenn (R/R)
Wrenn, drafted out of the University of Georgia in the 6th round in 2016, is definitely one of the stronger defensive players on this list. In 60 games in right field, 45 games in center and 15 games in left in 2017, he was charged with only one error while contributing eight outfield assists. Wrenn hit a combined .258/.332/.365 in 125 games between Quad Cities (42) and Buies Creek (85). It took him a while to catch up with High A pitching, but he did so nicely at the end of the season, hitting .301/.378/.336 in 30 games in August and September. According to Baseball America, Wrenn's swing is geared more for contact than for power and he is a plus runner. His 2017 results reflect that as he collected 17 doubles and six triples to go with his seven home runs, and stole 18 bases (seven caught stealing). He walked 50 times to 112 strikeouts, but his strikeout rate improved in the latter part of the season. Wrenn turned 23 in October.
Key: Work to get the most out of his speed. I can see him collecting more stolen bases, doubles and triples as he finetunes his running game.

Others to Watch:

Bryan de la Cruz (R/R)
Much like Luis Payano, my main concern with de la Cruz is that he hasn't progressed far enough in the system at this point in his career. He ended the season with a decent (but very limited) showing at Quad Cities, but going into his fifth season in 2018, he will need to move much more quickly. He turned 21 in December.

Patrick Mathis (L/L)
Drafted in the 22nd round in 2017 out of the University of Texas, Mathis was hampered by a leg injury in his final year at UT. He put up less than spectacular numbers in his first season, most of which was spent at rookie level Greeneville, but keep an eye out to see what he can do when/if he's completely healthy in 2018. He will be 22 in March.

Ronny Rafael (R/R)
Rafael signed for 1.5 million in July 2014, but after three seasons, he has yet to show that his bat is up to the challenge. Rafael turned 20 in October.

Previous Posts:
Shortstop
Second Base
First Base

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Astros Farm Report: 2/13

Catching you up on the latest Astros MiLB offseason news ...

WISHING A VERY HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO

Gilberto Celestino - August 2016
Photo Courtesy of Bryan Green

2-13: OF Gilberto Celestino (19)
2-14: RHP Jose Rivera (21)
2-15: SS Anibal Sierra (24)
2-16: RHP Fredis Guerrero (22)
2-17: LHP Juan Pablo Lopez  (19)
2-19: OF Josh Reddick (31)


ROSTER MOVES/TRANSACTIONS

You know that it's been a slow offseason when the only Astros-related transaction I've seen over the past week was free agent and former Fresno Grizzlie Jumbo Diaz signing with the Marlins!

You can check the cumulative Astros offseason transaction list here to see if you've missed any of the posted moves this offseason.

NEWS AND LINKS

Let me just leave this here ...

The Fresno Grizzlies will become the Zamunda Lions on June 21st. (Would you be impressed if I told you that I know the guy who wrote the screenplay for Coming to America? Yeah, I didn't think so.)

RHP Brandon Bailey, one of our newest Astros (obtained in the trade for Ramon Laureano with the A's in November), writes a blog. It's well-written and gives a little insight into his personality.

Oh, and one last thing, GIRLS RULE!!!



Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen
Third Basemen
Center Field
Right Field - Coming this week!

Friday, February 9, 2018

Beyond the Top 30: Center Field

As the old year fades away and the new season approaches, it's time to start looking at those players of interest who are beyond the Top 30. These players may not ever make a Top 30 list (or they may), but a combination of projections, actual results, incremental improvements and intangibles keep them in the mix as interesting players to watch. I am not including any players in these posts who have already made their major league debuts since, presumably, anyone reading my blog is already very familiar with those players.

Note: Many of the 2018 player rankings haven't been released yet so I will be using the MLB Pipeline postseason list, the Baseball Prospectus Top 10+ list and Baseball America's Top 10 list to denote those players who are currently considered Top 30 type players in the Astros system. Once FanGraphs weighs in, Baseball America publishes their Top 30 and MLB Pipeline posts their 2018 pre-season list, I will post a consensus top prospect list.

[UPDATES TO FINAL 2018 PRE-SEASON RANKINGS SHOWN IN RED.
BA= BASEBALL AMERICA, BP = BASEBALL PROSPECTUS,
FG=FANGRAPHS, MLB = MLB PIPELINE]

CENTERFIELDERS IN THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)

Myles Straw - August 2017
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Gilberto Celestino (R/L) - BP #7, FG #10, BA #20, MLB #23
Much has already been written about Celestino, who is ranked #15 in the MLB Pipeline 2017 postseason list and #7 by Baseball Prospectus. He will also likely be ranked in the upcoming Baseball America Prospect Handbook as he was ranked #19 by that publication last year. Celestino was signed out of the Dominican Republic in July 2015 for a $2.25 million bonus (plus a $275,000 college fund) and will turn 19 on February 13th. Celestino appeared in 59 games with rookie level Greeneville in 2017, hitting .268/.331/.379 with 10 doubles, two triples, four home runs, 10 stolen bases (two caught stealing) and eight outfield assists (seven of those in center field). He walked 22 times to 59 strikeouts. To summarize what has been written about Celestino, he lacks any one plus-plus tool, but his baseball IQ, aptitude, work ethic and instincts make all of his projected average to above-average tools play way up.

Drew Ferguson (R/R) - MLB #17
I'm including Ferguson as a centerfielder since he played more at that position than right or left in 2017, but MLB Pipeline which has him ranked at #26 finds his range at center to be "fringy" and feels that he would be better suited to right or left. A 19th round draft pick out of Belmont University in 2015, I see the 25-year old as a solid utility outfielder. Ferguson spent the first 84 games of his season with AA Corpus Christi, hitting .292/.390/.426. He was promoted to Fresno on August 1st where he slashed a less robust .223/.304/.320 in his final 29 games of the season. Overall, he collected 25 doubles, nine home runs, 41 RBI, 66 runs scored, 18 stolen bases (six caught stealing) and seven outfield assists (five of those from left field and two from center); he walked 57 times to 98 strikeouts. Much like Celestino, Ferguson's tools play up because of his great baseball IQ, with his hit tool being his strongest asset.

Myles Straw (R/R) - BP #11+, BA #17, MLB #21, FG #28+
Straw is currently ranked #20 on the MLB 2017 postseason list and in the "Next 10" by Baseball Prospectus. I fully expect him to debut in the 2018 Baseball America Prospect Handbook as well (ahem, I'm still waiting for my copy BA!). Straw was a 12th round pick in 2015 out of St. Johns River Community College (FL); he just turned 23 in October. Straw spent all but 13 games of his season with High A Buies Creek, hitting .295/.412/.373 at the level prior to a late season promotion to AA Corpus Christi. The speedy outfielder collected 38 stolen bases (nine caught stealing), 17 doubles, seven triples and one home run in his 127 games. He also walked (94 times) more than he struck out (79 times). Straw's speed is plus-plus and is enough to overcome an, at best, average arm and lack of home run power. He makes good contact with excellent plate discipline.

Kyle Tucker (L/R) - BA #2, BP #2, FG #2, MLB #2
Tucker tops the list with a #15 and #17 overall top prospect designation from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, respectively, and has been ranked #2 in the Astros system behind Forrest Whitley by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Tucker, who turned 21 last month, split his 2017 season between High A Buies Creek (48 games) and AA Corpus Christi (72 games), hitting a combined .274/.346/.528 with 33 doubles, five triples, 25 home runs, 90 RBI and 21 stolen bases (nine caught stealing); he walked 46 times to 109 strikeouts. Drafted in the first round in 2017 out of H.B. Plant High School (Florida), scouts loved his swing from the start and expected him to develop more power. That power output was evident when Tucker went from hitting nine home runs in 2016 to hitting 25 home runs in 2017 in a roughly equivalent number of games. Rodney Linares, the 2017 Manager of the Corpus Christi team noted that, although Tucker has a somewhat unorthodox swing and approach (BP calls Tucker somewhat stiff and passive-aggressive at the plate), he has very good bat-to-ball skills and power. Defensively, Linares lauded Tucker's arm, but held that his accuracy was sometimes questionable. And, although Tucker has been a good base stealer thus far, that is expected to diminish at the higher levels, particularly as he fills out his frame, and that already appears to be the case. Tucker played in 110 games in the outfield in 2017 - 54 (CF), 37 (RF) and 19 (LF); he may very well spend more time in right field in the future and I personally like him better there than in center.

CENTERFIELDERS BEYOND THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)

In his first season after signing out of Venezuela for $300,000 in July 2017, Abreu hit a healthy .286/.377/.345 in 34 games in the Dominican Summer League (and a robust .440/.533/.560 with two outs and runners in scoring position!). According to Oz Ocampo, Astros Special Assistant to the GM, Abreu shows an advanced approach at the plate as well as defensively in center field. Abreu is also said to be a plus runner (seven stolen bases to four caught stealing in his 34 games) with a good arm and nice intangibles. He will be 19 on 6/24.
Keys: In a crowded field of talented outfielders, Abreu will need to work hard to stand out both defensively and offensively. Listed at 6'0" 180#, I would expect Abreu to generate more power as he develops. At a minimum, with his reported speed, he should be able to collect more extra base hits than the five doubles and one triple he had in 2017.

Jake Meyers (R/L)
Meyers batting line for his 42 games with short season A Tri-City was a lackluster .207/.289/.304, but he was definitely heating up toward the end of the season, hitting .313/.377/.513 over his final 15 games, including three of his four doubles and all three of his season home runs. Drafted in the 13th round in 2017 out of the University of Nebraska where he was a two-way player, Meyers is said to be a plus runner (11 stolen bases and two caught stealing) whose speed and above average arm translate well in center field. Meyers will be 22 on 6/18.
Key: Show that he can catch up with and master pitching at the professional level.

Juan Ramirez (L/L)
Ramirez originally signed with the Tigers out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 for $185,000 and came to the Astros after the 2017 season as the PTBNL in the Justin Verlander trade. In his second professional season for the Gulf Coast League Tigers in 2017, Ramirez hit .301/.385/.362 in 42 games. He walked 20 times to only 14 strikeouts and stole 11 bases (seven caught stealing). On the smaller side (Baseball-Reference has him at 5'9" 160#), Ramirez is known more for contact than for power (six doubles and two triples in 2017), but at the time of his signing Baseball America thought he would grow into more power. They also noted that his above average arm could land him in right field. Ramirez will be 19 in April.
Keys: Ramirez is said to have good baseball instincts and he will need to use those to help him get the most out of his average speed and below average power.

Ramiro Rodriguez (L/L)
I am definitely a fan of Rodriguez (at least on paper since I've never actually seen him play), so much so that I named him my Short Season Player of the Year for 2017. Rodriguez was absolutely dominant at the plate while also providing solid defense. Rodriguez spent the vast majority of his season with the Dominican Summer League with a mid-August promotion to the Gulf Coast League. In 58 games, Rodriguez hit .335/.440/.500 with 11 doubles, three triples, five home runs, 24 RBI, 37 runs scored and eight stolen bases (seven caught stealing). He walked 30 times to only 23 strikeouts. Rodriguez signed with the Astros in October 2015 out of Panama.
Key: Rodriguez will be 20 in February and, as good as he was in the DSL, I would like to have seen him play in more than nine games in the States at this point. He should be challenged to higher levels of competition in order to see what he can really do.

Others to Watch:

Yefri Carrillo
Signed during the July 2nd international signing period in July 2017 out of Venezuela for $300,000, I haven't found much information about Carrillo yet, even his age [UPDATE: Carrillo turned 17 in January.], but since he didn't play in 2017, he will likely be 17 going into the 2018 season. Oz Ocampo called Carrillo a legitimate five-tool player with a "great frame and plus athleticism," citing a 70 arm, plus speed and fielding, and a solid bat with power.

Yimmi Cortabarria and Franklin Pinto
I know even less about these two players, both of whom signed in July 2017 for $300,000 out of Venezuela and neither of whom have yet played, but I will be watching them both in the new season. [UPDATE: Cortabarria was 17 in January and Pinto will be 17 in late April.]

Andy Pineda (L/R)
2017 was mostly a season of regression at the plate for Pineda, but he still showed enough promise to be included as a New York-Penn League Mid-Season All Star. Based on his past performance, I can still see him as a solid 4-tool player (lacking power), but going into his fifth season, he will need to catch up to higher levels of pitching and do so much more quickly. Pineda turned 21 in November.

Previous Posts:
Shortstop
Second Base
First Base

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

2018 Astros Consensus Top Prospect List

It is prospect ranking season ... time to start compiling the 2018 Astros Consensus Top Prospect list. Once everyone has weighed in, I will average the rankings from the various sources and compile a consensus list. In the meantime, these are the rankings that have come out so far.

Forrest Whitley - August 2017
Photo by Jayne Hansen

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS - December 5, 2017
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (10th on the BP top 101 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (20th on the BP top 101 overall list)
3. RHP J.B. Bukauskas
4. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez
5. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
6. IF Jonathan Arauz
7. OF Gilberto Celestino
8. RHP David Paulino
9. 3B Colin Moran - traded to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole
10. RHP Corbin Martin

BP's Next 10 (not ranked; in alphabetical order)
3B J.D. Davis
OF Carlos Machado
SS Freudis Nova
LHP Cionel Perez
RHP Hector Perez
C Nathan Perry
LHP Patrick Sandoval
RHP Jairo Solis
OF Myles Straw
C Garrett Stubbs
Plus One
OF J.J. Matijevic

BASEBALL AMERICA - January 18, 2018 + Prospect Handbook released in early February
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (10th on the BA top 100 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (15th on the BA top 100 overall list)
3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (62nd on the BA top 100 overall list)
4. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (76th on the BA top 100 overall list)
5. SS Freudis Nova
6. RHP Jairo Solis
7. RHP Hector Perez
8. RHP Jorge Alcala
(3B Colin Moran was between Alcala and Paulino in Handbook; traded to Pittsburgh)
9. RHP David Paulino
10. 3B J.D. Davis
11. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
12. LHP Cionel Perez
13. LHP Framber Valdez
14. 3B Joe Perez
15. RHP Corbin Martin
16. OF Myles Straw
17. C Garrett Stubbs
(OF Jason Martin was between Stubbs and Celestino in Handbook; traded to Pittsburgh)
18. OF Gilberto Celestino
19. OF Ronnie Dawson
20. RHP Dean Deetz
21. SS Jonathan Arauz
22. 1B A.J. Reed
23. RHP Cristian Javier
24. OF J.J. Matijevic
25. RHP Riley Ferrell
26. RHP Jandel Gustave
27. RHP Elian Rodriguez
28. SS Miguelangel Sierra

Note that the above numbers were adjusted to exclude players who were traded.

MLB PIPELINE - Coming out between late February and early March
Here is the 2017 postseason list.
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (9th on the MLBP top 100 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (17th on the MLBP top 100 overall list)
3. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (76th on the MLBP top 100 overall list)

FANGRAPHS - Release date unknown
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (8th on the FG top 100 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (10th on the FG top 100 overall list)
3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (44th on the FG top 100 overall list)

As a reminder, these were the players who were consensus prospects in 2017. Players had to appear on at least three of the four rankings used and are in order by averaged rankings.

2017 Consensus Top Prospect List

1. RHP Francis Martes - Graduated to MLB
2. OF Kyle Tucker
3. RHP David Paulino - Missed 80 games in 2017 for failed drug test; followed by surgery in October to remove a bone spur from his elbow
4. RHP Franklin Perez - Included in the trade for Justin Verlander
5. RHP Forrest Whitley
6. OF Derek Fisher - Graduated to MLB
7. OF Teoscar Hernandez - Included in the trade for Francisco Liriano
8. OF Ramon Laureano - Traded to A's for Brandon Bailey
9. C Garrett Stubbs
10. OF Daz Cameron - Included in the trade for Justin Verlander
11. SS Miguelangel Sierra
12. 3B J.D. Davis - Has not exceeded rookie limits
13. RHP Jandel Gustave - Missed the majority of the 2017 season after undergoing TJ surgery
14. 3B Colin Moran - Included in the trade for Gerrit Cole

Additionally, these players appeared on two of the four lists and are in order of averaged rankings.

IF Yulieski Gurriel - Graduated to MLB
1B A.J. Reed - Exceeded rookie limits in 2016
OF Gilberto Celestino
SS Anibal Sierra
LHP Cionel Perez
OF Ronnie Dawson
IF Jonathan Arauz
SS Freudis Nova
C Jake Rogers - Included in trade for Justin Verlander
OF Jason Martin - Included in the trade for Gerrit Cole
1B Yordan Alvarez
RHP Brady Rodgers - Had TJ surgery in May 2017
OF Stephen Wrenn
RHP James Hoyt - Graduated to MLB

Also, check out my series on players who are Beyond the Top 30
Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen
Third Basemen
Center Field
Right Field
Left Field
Catchers
Utility Players
LHP
RHP