Saturday, March 31, 2018

2018 Astros MiLB Opening Day Roster Breakdown

Offering a little insight on the Astros opening day rosters, including where the players came from, where they were in 2017 (and how they did) and those who are considered to be top prospects going into the 2018 season ...

* = Left-handed
# = Switch-hitter

Rankings Noted per the following sources:
BA = Baseball America
BP = Baseball Prospectus
FG = FanGraphs
MLB = MLB Pipeline

FRESNO - AAA

This should be a really strong team. Except for Chris Nunn, Antonio Nunez and Kyle Tucker, all of the players on this team have had at least some experience at AAA and nine of them have had MLB experience.

PITCHERS

Rogelio Armenteros - BP #5, FG #11, BP #12, MLB #12
  • Astros 9/14 Cuban signing
  • 2017: 14 games in AA; 10 games in AAA (2.04 ERA/1.043 WHIP/123.2 IP combined)
*Buddy Boshers
  • 1/18 waiver claim from the Twins; originally Angels 4th round 2008 (Calhoun Community College - AL)
  • 2017: 38 games in MLB (4.89 ERA/1.343 WHIP/35 IP); 18G in AAA (3.68 ERA/16.36 WHIP/14.2 IP)
Jacob Dorris
  • Astros 6/15 NDFA (Texas A&M Corpus Christi)
  • 2017: 23 games in AA; 20 games in AAA (3.00 ERA/1.222 WHIP/72 IP combined)
*Kent Emanuel
  • Astros 3rd round 2013 (UNC - Chapel Hill)
  • 2017: 16 games in AA; 9 games in AAA (5.72 ERA/1.745 WHIP/116.1 IP combined)
*Reymin Guduan - FG #20
  • Astros 9/09 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 22 games in MLB (7.88 ERA/2.250 WHIP/16 IP); 39 games in AAA (5.87 ERA/1.630 WHIP/46 IP)
Mike Hauschild
  • Astros 33rd round 2012 (University of Dayton)
  • 2017: 4 games in MLB for Rangers as Rule 5 pick (11.25 ERA/2.000 WHIP/8 IP); 18 games in AAA (4.58 ERA/1.528 WHIP/90.1 IP)
Francis Martes
  • 7/14 trade with Marlins; originally signed by Marlins 12/12 (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 8 games in AAA (5.29 ERA/2.103 WHIP/32.1 IP); 32 games in MLB (5.80 ERA/1.509 WHIP/54.1 IP)
Brendan McCurry
  • 11/15 trade with A's; originally A's 22nd round 2014 (Oklahoma State University)
  • 2017: 35 games in AAA (4.43 ERA/1.410 WHIP/44.2 IP)
*Chris Nunn
  • Astros 2017 Rule 5 Draft (minor league phase); originally Padres 24th round 2012 (Lipscomb University - TN)
  • 2017: 1 game in Independent League (1.80 ERA/1.000 WHIP/5 IP); 4 games in AA (4.76 ERA/1.353 WHIP/17 IP)
David Paulino - MLB #8, BP #8, BA #10
  • 9/13 PTBNL in 7/13 trade with Tigers; originally signed 9/10 by Tigers (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 6 games in MLB (6.52 ERA/1.483/29 IP) followed by suspension and DL stint
Matt Ramsey
  • 12/17 Astros Free Agent signing; originally Rays 19th round 2011 (University of Tennessee)
  • 2017: 48 games in AA; 5 games in AAA (5.26 ERA/1.530 WHIP/49.2 IP combined)
Cy Sneed
  • 11/15 Trade with Brewers; originally Brewers 3rd round 2014 (Dallas Baptist University)
  • 2017: 22 games in AA; 4 games in AAA (5.97 ERA/1.587 WHIP/114.2 IP combined)
Andrew Thome
  • Astros 6/15 NDFA (University of North Dakota)
  • 2017: 4 games in High A; 28 games in AA; 8 games in AAA (4.10 ERA/1.399 WHIP/59.1 IP combined)
Trent Thornton
  • Astros 3rd round 2015 (UNC - Chapel Hill)
  • 2017: 4 games in AA; 21 games in AAA (5.21 ERA/1.409 WHIP/131.1 IP combined)
CATCHERS

Tim Federowicz
  • 12/17 Astros Free Agent signing; originally Red Sox 7th round 2008 (UNC - Chapel Hill)
  • 2017: 77 games in AAA (.300/.366/.463); 13 games in MLB (.231/.286/.692)
*Garrett Stubbs - FG #15, BP #16, BA #18, MLB #24
  • Astros 8th round 2015 (University of Southern California)
  • 2017: 75 games in AA; 23 games in AAA (.232/.328/.321 combined)
INFIELDERS

*Tony Kemp
  • Astros 5th round 2013 (Vanderbilt University)
  • 2017: 118 games in AAA (.329/.375/.470); 17 games in MLB (.216/.256/.243)
Jack Mayfield
  • Astros 6/13 NDFA (University of Oklahoma)
  • 2017: 70 games in AA; 42 games in AAA (.283/.327/.500 combined)
Antonio Nunez
  • Astros 18th round 2014 (Western Oklahoma State College)
  • 2017: 114 games in AA (.223/.316/.270)
*A.J. Reed - BA #24
  • Astros 2nd round draft 2014 (University of Kentucky)
  • 2017: 127 games in AAA (.261/.358/.525); 2 games in MLB (.000/.000/.000)
Tyler White
  • Astros 33rd round 2014 (Western Carolina University - NC)
  • 2017: 111 games in AAA (.300/.371/.528); 22 games in MLB (.279/.328/.525)
OUTFIELDERS

Drew Ferguson - MLB #17
  • Astros 19th round 2015 (Belmont University)
  • 2017: 84 games in AA; 29 games in AAA (.275/.369/.400 combined)
Alejandro Garcia
  • Astros 7/15 Cuban signing
  • 2017: 42 games in AA; 50 games in AAA (.235/.278/.341 combined)
*Jon Kemmer
  • Astros 21st round 2013 (Brewton-Parker College - GA)
  • 2017: 87 games in AAA (.299/.399/.533)
*Kyle Tucker - BA #2, BP #2, FG #2, MLB #2
  • Astros 1st round 2015 (H.B. Plant H.S. - Tampa, FL)
  • 2017: 48 games in High A; 72 games in AA (.274/.346/.528)
CORPUS CHRISTI - AA

There are no real surprises to me on this team (except I did think Riley Ferrell might start his season at AAA). Lorenzo Quintana bears watching as one of the recent Cuban signings; 2018 will be his first taste of affiliated ball. Also worth watching is how Nick Tanielu bounces back in his first full season following ACL surgery. Honestly, the combination of talent and experience on this team will make it fun to watch, but don't expect all of these players to linger at AA.

PITCHERS

Akeem Bostick
  • Astros 1/15 trade with Rangers; originally Rangers 2nd round 2013 (West Florence H.S. - Florence, SC)
  • 2017: 4 games in High A; 18 games in AA (4.06 ERA/1.334 WHIP/99.2 IP combined)
Brock Dykxhoorn
  • Astros 6th round 2014 (Central Arizona College)
  • 2017: 25 games in AA (4.62 ERA/1.500 WHIP/99.1 IP)
Riley Ferrell - FG #17, MLB #20, BA #27
  • Astros 3rd round 2015 (Texas Christian University)
  • 2017: 2 games in High A; 36 games in AA (3.67 ERA/1.204 WHIP/54 IP combined)
Ralph Garza
  • Astros 26th round 2015 (University of Oklahoma)
  • 2017: 20 games in High A; 15 games in AA; 1 game in AAA (4.22 ERA/1.500 WHIP/64 IP combined)
*Ryan Hartman
  • Astros 9th round 2016 (Tennessee Weslayan College)
  • 2017: 9 games in Low A; 16 games in High A (3.64 ERA/1.215 WHIP/108.2 IP combined)
Kevin Hill
  • Astros 25th round 2016 (University of South Alabama)
  • 2017: 14 games in Low A; 10 games in High A; 2 games in AA (1.95 ERA/0.990 WHIP/64.2 IP combined)
Josh James
  • Astros 34th round 2014 (Western Oklahoma State College)
  • 2017: 21 games in AA (4.38 ERA/1.461 WHIP/76 IP)
*Cionel Pérez - FG #6, MLB #6, BA #13, BP #16
  • Astros 12/16 Cuban signing
  • 2017: 12 games in Low A; 5 games in High A; 4 games in AA (4.13 ERA/1.292 WHIP/93.2 IP combined)
Erasmo Pinales
  • Astros 5/13 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 21 games in Low A; 12 games in High A (3.39 ERA/1.131 WHIP/61 IP combined)
Yoanys Quiala
  • Astros 6/15 Cuban signing
  • 2017: 12 games in High A; 12 games in AA (2.57 ERA/1.187 WHIP/108.2 IP combined)
*Sean Stuzman
  • Astros 6/16 NDFA (Dallas Baptist University)
  • 2017: 16 games in Low A; 13 games in High A; 4 games in AA (2.28 ERA/1.075 WHIP/67 IP)
*Framber Valdez - BA #14, MLB #16, FG #25
  • Astros 3/15 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 13 games in High A; 12 games in AA (4.16 ERA/1.387 WHIP/110.1 IP combined)
*Alex Winkelman
  • Astros 21st round 2015 (Southeast Missouri State University)
  • 2017: 8 games in High A; 18 games in AA (3.21 ERA/1.370 WHIP/103.2 IP combined)
CATCHERS

Lorenzo Quintana
  • Astros 10/17 Cuban signing
  • 2017: Did not play
Jamie Ritchie
  • Astros 13th round 2014 (Belmont University)
  • 2017: 76 games in AA (.256/.382/.335)
INFIELDERS

*Ryne Birk
  • Astros 13th round 2016 (Texas A&M)
  • 2017: 81 games in High A; 37 games in AA (.266/.325/.430 combined)
Randy César
  • Astros 7/11 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 27 games in Low A; 83 games in High A (.297/.350/.403 combined)
Alex DeGoti
  • Astros 15th round 2016 (Barry University - FL)
  • 2017: 34 games in Low A; 70 games in High A; 5 games in AAA (.236/.341/.356 combined)
Taylor Jones
  • Astros 19th round 2016 (Gonzaga University)
  • 2017: 50 games in Low A; 55 games in High A (.222/.314/.321 combined)
Arturo Michelena
  • Astros 7/11 international signing (Venezuela)
  • 2017: 32 games in High A; 52 games in AA (.218/.278/.262 combined)
Nick Tanielu
  • Astros 14th round 2014 (Washington State University)
  • 2017: DL for most of year; 2 rehab games in Rookie League (.400/.500/.600)
OUTFIELDERS

*Yordan Alvarez - BA #3, FG #3, BP #4, MLB #4
  • Astros 8/16 trade with the Dodgers; originally Dodgers Cuban signing 6/16
  • 2017: 32 games in Low A; 58 games in High A (.304/.379/.481)
*Carmen Benedetti
  • Astros 12th round 2016 (University of Michigan)
  • 2017: 69 games in Low A; 23 games in High A (.316/.421/.452 combined)
Myles Straw - BP #16, BA #17, MLB #21
  • Astros 12th round 2015 (St. Johns River Community College - FL)
  • 2017: 114 games in High A; 13 games in AA (.290/.405/.360 combined)
Stephen Wrenn
  • Astros 6th round 2016 (University of Georgia)
  • 2017: 42 games in Low A; 83 games in High A (.258/.332/.365 combined)
BUIES CREEK - HIGH A

Of particular note on this team are the three 2017 draft picks (Brandon Bielak, Corbin Martin and Patrick Mathis) who are bypassing Low A Quad Cities completely; it will be interesting to see if they are all up to the challenge. One thing that stands out is how few of these players have significant experience above Low A. There is a lot of talent on this team, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them start off a bit slowly and pick up as the season continues. On the flip side, Jorge Alcala and Hector Pérez will likely hit the ground running; if they can fine-tune their control/command, they will be promoted quickly.

PITCHERS

*Brett Adcock - MLB #28
  • Astros 4th round 2016 (University of Michigan)
  • 2017: 5 games in Low A; 20 games in High A (3.93 ERA/1.226 WHIP/107.2 IP combined)
Jorge Alcala - MLB #7, BA #8, FG #14
  • Astros 12/14 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 6 games in Low A; 16 games in High A (3.05 ERA/1.061 WHIP/109.1 IP combined)
Brandon Bailey - FG #18, MLB #30
  • Astros 11/17 trade with A's; originally A's 6th round 2016 (Gonzaga University)
  • 2017: 15 games in Low A; 9 games in High A (3.26 ERA/1.088 WHIP/91 IP combined)
Jesús Balaguer
  • Astros 4/17 Cuban signing
  • 2017: 3 games in Rookie League; 5 games in Short Season A; 10 games in Low A (2.73 ERA/1.061 WHIP/33 IP combined)
Brandon Bielak
  • Astros 11th round 2017 (University of Notre Dame)
  • 2017: 2 games in Rookie League; 8 games in Short Season A (0.80 ERA/0.772 WHIP/33.2 IP combined)
Ronel Blanco
  • Astros 4/16 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 22 games in Low A; 1 game in High A (3.38 ERA/1.466/88 IP combined)
Justin Ferrell
  • Astros 36th round 2014 (Connors State College - OK)
  • 2017: 28 games in High A (4.26 ERA/1.372 WHIP/82.1 IP)
Carson LaRue
  • Astros 14th round 2016 (Cowley County Community College - KS)
  • 2017: 20 games in Low A; 4 games in High A (3.60 ERA/1.133 WHIP/120 IP)
Corbin Martin - FG #8, BP #10, MLB #10, BA #16
  • Astros 2nd round 2017 (Texas A&M)
  • 2017: 2 games in Rookie League; 8 games in Short Season A (2.20 ERA/0.888 WHIP/32.2 IP combined)
Hector Pérez - FG #5, BA #7, MLB #11, BP #16
  • Astros 7/14 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 4 games in Low A; 21 games in High A (3.44 ERA/1.453 WHIP/107.1 IP)
Abdiel Saldaña
  • Astros 10/13 international signing (Panama)
  • 2017: 25 games in Low A; 4 games in High A (3.39 ERA/1.362 WHIP/90.1 IP combined)
*Kit Scheetz
  • Astros 6/17 NDFA signing (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University)
  • 2017: 2 games in Rookie League; 6 games in Short Season A; 4 games in Low A (1.72 ERA/1.021 WHIP/47 IP combined)
Carlos Sierra
  • Astros 1/16 Cuban signing
  • 2017: 4 games in Low A; 25 games in High A (2.83 ERA/1.099 WHIP/57.1 IP combined)
CATCHERS

#Carlos Canelon
  • Astros 4/14 international signing (Venezuela)
  • 2017: 16 games in Short Season A; 8 games in AA (.162/.259/.203 combined)
Chuckie Robinson - MLB #27
  • Astros 21st round 2016 (University of Southern Mississippi)
  • 2017: 108 games in Low A (.274/.330/.463)
INFIELDERS

Osvaldo Duarte
  • Astros 7/13 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 47 games in Low A; 28 games in High A (.192/.282/.308 combined)
*Josh Rojas
  • Astros 26th round 2017 (University of Hawaii at Manoa)
  • 2017: 52 games in Low A; 4 games in AAA (.261/.319/.478 combined)
*Troy Sieber
  • Astros 24th round 2016 (St. Leo College - FL)
  • 2017: 2 games at Short Season A; 55 games in Low A (.289/.403/.457 combined)
Anibal Sierra
  • Astros 7/16 Cuban signing
  • 2017: 9 games in Low A; 104 games in High A (.201/.271/.290 combined)
#Abraham Toro-Hernandez - FG #22, MLB #29
  • Astros 5th round 2016 (Seminole State College - OK)
  • 2017: 32 games in Short Season A; 37 games in Low A (.246/.364/.496 combined)
Kristian Trompiz
  • Astros 7/12 international signing (Venezuela)
  • 2017: 25 games in Short Season A; 40 games in Low A; 17 games in AA (.275/.340/.322 combined)
OUTFIELDERS

*Ronnie Dawson - MLB #15, BA #21, FG #23
  • Astros 2nd round 2016 (The Ohio State University)
  • 2017: 116 games in Low A; 13 games in High A (.278/.363/.437 combined)
*Patrick Mathis
  • Astros 22nd round 2017 (University of Texas at Austin)
  • 2017: 46 games in Rookie League; 3 games in Short Season A (.231/.311/.324 combined)
Chas McCormick
  • Astros 21st round 2017 (Millersville University of Pennsylvania)
  • 2017: 8 games in Rookie League; 39 games in Low A; 4 games in High A (.298/.355/.399 combined)
Luis Payano
  • Astros 7/12 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 20 games in Short Season A; 24 games in Low A (.250/.308/.444 combined)
QUAD CITIES - LOW A

HOO-BOY! The River Bandits may be in for a tough start to their season. Between the inexperience of many of these players, the wildness of some of these pitchers and an opening day game time temperature that will be flirting with freezing, it could get ugly. The good news is that there is a ton on talent on the team ... it's just a little raw so the team should improve continuously. I don't see a lot of fast promotions on the pitching staff (by mid-May), other than maybe Cristian Javier (who I thought might start the season with Buies Creek), the more polished J.B. Bukauskas and perhaps Patrick Sandoval if he continues with last season's improvements. As far as position players, it is likely that some of the college drafted players will move more quickly than others, but it's just going to depend on who steps up.

PITCHERS

*Adam Bleday
  • Astros 27th round 2017 (University of Pennsylvania)
  • 2017: 9 games in Rookie League; 4 games in Short Season A (3.40 ERA/1.267 WHIP/45 IP combined)
J.B. Bukauskas - BP #3, MLB #3, BA #4, FG #4
  • Astros 1st round 2017 (UNC - Chapel Hill)
  • 2017: 1 game in Rookie League; 2 games in Short Season A (2.70 ERA/1.200 WHIP/10 IP combined)
Robert Corniel
  • Astros 7/12 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 3 games in Short Season A; 15 games in Low A (4.15 ERA/1.471 WHIP/34.2 IP combined)
Tyler Ivey - FG #27
  • Astros 3rd round 2017 (Grayson County College - TX)
  • 2017: 1 game in Rookie League; 11 games in Short Season A (5.63 ERA/1.461 WHIP/38.1 IP combined)
Cristian Javier - MLB #19, BA #25
  • Astros 3/15 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 4 games in Short Season A; 8 games in Low A; 2 games in High A (2.25 ERA/1.083 WHIP/60 IP combined)
Colin McKee
  • Astros 18th round 2016 (Mercyhurst College - PA)
  • 2017: 17 games in Short Season A (3.51 ERA/1.268 WHIP/41 IP)
*Parker Mushinski
  • Astros 7th round 2017 (Texas Tech University)
  • 2017: 13 games in Short Season A (3.60 ERA/1.367 WHIP/30 IP)
Yohan Ramírez
  • Astros 6/16 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 17 games in Low A; 2 games in High A; 1 game in AA (4.66 ERA/1.500 WHIP/75.1 IP combined)
César Rosado
  • Astros 12/14 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 2 games in Short Season A; 7 games in Low A (4.03 ERA/1.138 WHIP/29 IP)
Carlos Sanabria
  • Astros 3/14 international signing (Venezuela)
  • 2017: 19 games in Low A (4.46 ERA/1.512 WHIP/80.2 IP)
*Patrick Sandoval - BP #16
  • Astros 11th round 2015 (Mission Viejo H.S. - Mission Viejo, CA)
  • 2017: 4 games in Short Season A; 9 games in Low A; 1 game in High A (4.09 ERA/1.362 WHIP/61.2 IP combined)
Peter Solomon
  • Astros 4th round 2017 (University of Notre Dame)
  • 2017: 1 game in Rookie League (0.00 ERA/0.000 WHIP/1 IP) 
*Cole Watts
  • Astros 31st round 2017 (Skyline Junior College - CA)
  • 2017: 12 games in Rookie League (6.68 ERA/1.742 WHIP/31 IP)
CATCHERS

Gabriel Bracamonte
  • Astros 3/14 international signing (Venezuela)
  • 2017: 28 games in Short Season A; 12 games in Low A (.239/.301/.348 combined)
#Michael Papierski
  • Astros 9th round 2017 (Louisiana State University)
  • 2017: 37 games in Short Season A (.198/.377/.380)
INFIELDERS

Jake Adams
  • Astros 6th round 2017 (University of Iowa)
  • 2017: 48 games in Short Season A (.170/.280/.388)
Marcos Almonte
  • Astros 2/14 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 84 games in Low A (.248/.276/.382)
#Jonathan Arauz - BP #6, FG #16, MLB #22, BA #23
  • Astros 12/15 trade with the Phillies; originally Phillies international signing in 8/14 (Panama)
  • 2017: 33 games in Short Season A; 36 games in Low A (.242/.336/.319 combined)
Cody Bohanek
  • Astros 30th round 2017 (University of Illinois at Chicago)
  • 2017: 47 games in Rookie League; 10 games in Low A (.246/.353/.332 combined)
Roman Garcia
  • Astros 19th round 2017 (University of San Diego)
  • 2017: 48 games in Rookie League (.277/.342/.457)
Adrian Tovalin
  • Astros 16th round 2017 (Azusa Pacific University - CA)
  • 2017: 18 in Rookie League; 36 in Short Season A (.218/.294/.396 combined)
OUTFIELDERS

Bryan de la Cruz
  • Astros 9/13 international signing (Dominican Republic)
  • 2017: 40 games in Short Season A; 10 games in Low A; 10 games in AA (.244/.290/.333 combined)
Corey Julks
  • Astros 8th round 2017 (University of Houston)
  • 2017: 32 games in Short Season A (.176/.311/.235)
*J.J. Matijevic - BP #16, FG #24, MLB #25, BA #26
  • Astros 2nd round 2017 (University of Arizona)
  • 2017: 53 games in Short Season A; 6 games in Low A (.228/.290/.384 combined)
Jake Meyers
  • Astros 13th round 2017 (University of Nebraska at Lincoln)
  • 2017: 42 games at Short Season A (.207/.289/.304)
THE MISSING

The following players didn't make the opening day rosters for the full season teams. There are others, but these are the most noteworthy.

RHP Dean Deetz (MLB #18, FG #21, BA #22) - restricted list
Ended the 2017 season in AAA

RHP Jose Luis Hernandez
On DL for all of 2017

RHP Nick Hernandez - DL?
Ended the 2017 season in AA

RHP Enoli Paredes
Went on the DL in June 2017

1B Jon Singleton - restricted list
Ended the 2017 season in AA

RHP Ryan Thompson - DL?
Ended the 2017 in AA

RHP Forrest Whitley (BA #1, BP #1, FG #1, MLB #1)  - restricted list
Ended the 2017 season in AA

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Beyond the Astros Top 30 Prospects: Right-Handed Starters

This will be the final post of a series looking at those players of interest who are beyond the Astros Top 30 (or 32 ... see below). These players may not ever make a Top 30 list (or they may), but a combination of projections, actual results, incremental improvements and intangibles keep them in the mix as interesting players to watch. I am not including any players in these posts who have already made their major league debuts since, presumably, anyone reading my blog is already very familiar with those players.

Now that all of the major players (Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline and Baseball America) have weighed in with their Astros Top Prospect Lists, I've integrated all of the rankings into one consensus top prospect ranking that includes 32 Astros players (16 were ranked on all four lists, nine were on three of four and the final seven were on two of four). I highly recommend checking out the included links for all of the great information provided.

Although I have covered over 130 players in these posts, there will be someone in the system who will emerge seemingly from nowhere to wow us. That is the beauty of baseball. Everyone from the number one pick to the 40th draft pick to the Rule 5 draft pick to the non-drafted free agent to the top international prospect to the undersized Venezuelan kid who signed for $15,000 -- all of them get the chance to put on a uniform and show us what they can do. Some will outperform their talent by sheer force of will and work ethic. And some top talents will slowly fade away. It can be enthralling to watch an underdog succeed and it can be heartbreaking to see a favorite prospect fail. But watching that journey is a blast.

[UPDATES TO FINAL 2018 PRE-SEASON RANKINGS SHOWN IN RED.
BA= BASEBALL AMERICA, BP = BASEBALL PROSPECTUS,
FG=FANGRAPHS, MLB = MLB PIPELINE]

Note: Although I included all of the left-handed pitchers in my previous post, I will be dividing the right-handers into relievers and starters due to the sheer number of pitchers I am covering. Those listed as starters are either currently being used primarily in that role or appear to be headed in that direction.

RIGHT-HANDED STARTERS IN THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)


Hector Pérez - July 2016
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Jorge Alcala - MLB #7, BA #8, FG #14
Alcala didn't sign with the Astros until he was 18. Now 22, the flame-throwing right-hander has come a long way, but reportedly still has some work to do in refining his control and command. Along with a mid to high 90's fastball that touches up to 102 (and is said to be an 80 by FanGraphs on the 20-80 scale), Alcala features a slider that is characterized as inconsistent and a changeup that is a work in progress. MLB Pipeline, who also notes that Alcala has a curveball in his repertoire, is higher on Alcala's breaking pitches than some of the other sources. In any event, Alcala will need to fine-tune both his pitch repertoire and his command of those pitches to remain in the rotation. But an 80 fastball will definitely play up in the 'pen if he goes that route. Alcala started his 2017 season in Low A Quad Cities, but soon earned a promotion to High A Buies Creek in mid-May. In a total of 22 appearances (18 starts), he had a 3.05 ERA and a 1.061 WHIP, walking 45 and striking out 95 in 109.1 innings. He will be 23 in July.

Rogelio Armenteros - BP #5, FG #11, BA #12, MLB #12
Armenteros was ranked higher by Baseball Prospectus (#5) than the other outlets (#11 from FanGraphs and #12 from MLB Pipeline and Baseball America) primarily because BP placed a higher value on Armenteros deception, ability to throw five pitches for strikes and ability to locate to either side of the plate. And, although, Forrest Whitley is considered a much more elite prospect, Armenteros was WTHB's 2017 Pitcher of the Year due to his sheer dominance and present results. At the time I wrote:
There were a number of very good pitching performances in the Astros minor league system in 2017, but no one was quite as dominant as Rogelio Armenteros. Armenteros split his season between Corpus Christi and Fresno and compiled a 10-4 record with a 2.04 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP and 38 walks to 146 strikeouts in 123.2 innings. His stats were almost identical at the two levels with the main difference being an astonishing 8-1 record in his 10 starts at the higher level.
In any event, his plus change up, plus control/command and overall pitchability have most pundits agreeing that Armenteros has very little left to prove in the minors and should be able to contribute as a back of the rotation starter in Houston whenever he is needed. Originally from Cuba, Armenteros was signed by the Astros in September 2014 and he will be 24 in June.

Brandon Bailey - FG #18, MLB #30
Bailey, acquired in a November 2017 trade with Oakland for OF Ramon Laureano, squeaked on to the prospect list with a #18 ranking from FanGraphs and a #30 out of 30 from MLB Pipeline while Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus remained agnostic. Originally drafted by Oakland in the sixth round in 2016 out of Gonzaga, Bailey split his 2017 season between the Low A Midwest League and the High A California League, compiling a 3.26 ERA and a 1.088 WHIP with 31 walks to 120 strikeouts in 91 innings. Bailey features a low 90's fastball which MLB Pipeline likes for its "riding life" (FG calls it "flat-planed" so I suppose it depends on who you talk to), a plus change up, an above average curveball and a slider that FanGraphs calls "fringy." Most think that he will ultimately end up in the bullpen due to his smaller stature and the effort in his delivery. Bailey will be 24 in October.

J.B. Bukauskas - BP #3, MLB #3, BA #4, FG  #4
Although there is some concern about his durability and high effort delivery, there is no question among scouts that Bukauskas has the stuff to make the big leagues. If he can develop his rarely used changeup and refine his fastball command, he is expected to become a #3 starter. If he can't, his plus-plus fastball and slider will serve him well in late-inning relief. The Astros have every intention of developing Bukauskas as a starter, but his back-up plan makes him a valuable prospect for the organization. He is ranked either the #3 or #4 top prospect in the organization in the referenced rankings. Drafted 15th overall in the first round of the draft in 2017 out of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Bukauskas only pitched 10 innings in his inaugural season, one outing with the rookie level Gulf Coast League and two with short season Tri-City. He will be 22 in October.

Cristian Javier - MLB #19, BA #25, FG #28+
Signed out of the Dominican Republic in March 2015, Javier spent the majority of his season with Low A Quad Cities where he was 1-0 in two postseason starts, helping propel the River Bandits to the Midwest League Championship. For the season, he was 3-0 with one save, a 2.25 ERA, 1.083 WHIP and 27 walks to 80 strikeouts in 60 innings. His solid season reflects the progress that he has made with all of his pitches, but can be attributed as much to his poise and savvy on the mound as his pitch repertoire. Javier features a high 80's to low 90's fastball with late life, a curveball and slider that flash plus and a change up that lags behind the others, but shows signs of improvement. Since he has yet to pitch more than 60 innings in his three pro seasons, he will need to be stretched out to eat up more innings if he is to remain in the rotation, but some project his stuff as playing up in relief. His highest ranking was from MLB Pipeline who had him at #19 going into the 2018 season. Javier turned 21 earlier this week.

Corbin Martin - FG #8, BP #10, MLB #10, BA #16
Martin, drafted in the second round in 2017 out of Texas A&M (as compensation for those cheatin' Cardinals) was ranked as high as #8 (FanGraphs) and as low as #16 (Baseball America), with a couple of 10's thrown in, going in to the 2018 season. Unfortunately, these guys are all over the map when it comes to discussing his offspeed offerings, but they all seem to agree that Martin's fastball is a quality low to mid-90's offering (although Baseball Prospectus thinks it plays down due to fringy command and lack of movement) that will bump up in velocity in the 'pen. His curveball, according to these sources, either projects plus-plus (MLB Pipeline), flashes plus (Baseball Prospectus), is behind his slider (Baseball America) or isn't even mentioned (FanGraphs). The projections on his slider and change up are similarly confusing. Hopefully, I will catch up with Martin during the season and find out for myself! In any event, most think that fine-tuning his command/control will be key to staying in the rotation where he is projected to be a #3 or #4 starter. In his first season, Martin made his first appearance with Tri-City before missing two weeks and then heading to the Gulf Coast League for two outings (possible injury?) before returning to Tri-City to finish out his season. Overall, he had a 2.20 ERA and 0.888 WHIP, allowing nine walks to 43 strikeouts and a .174 batting average in 32.2 innings. Martin just turned 22 in late December.

Hector Pérez - FG #5, BA #7, MLB #11, BP #11+
If Pérez can figure out how to time his delivery in order to produce more consistent results, he could be a dominant top of the rotation starter, but based on his 2017 season, that is a big "if." Ranked as high as #5 by FanGraphs, Pérez's electric fastball sits in the mid-90's, touches 98 or 99 and projects as a plus-plus pitch. His curveball, slider and split-change should all be plus major league pitches as well. The only question is whether or not Pérez can find the strike zone with all of his offerings on a more consistent basis. Pérez signed out of the Dominican Republic in July 2014 and in his third professional season in 2017, Pérez had a 3.44 ERA, a 1.453 WHIP and 78 walks to 128 strikeouts in 107.1 innings between Low A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek. Obviously, that high walk rate will need to be tamed, but his incredible talent dictates that the Astros will give Pérez every opportunity to figure it out. He will be 22 in early June.

Jairo Solis - BA #6, BP #11+, FG #12, MLB #13
Solis is at the opposite end of the spectrum from Pérez when it comes to command and the ability to throw strikes, and what he did in his first professional season at the ripe old age of 17 is nothing short of remarkable. Solis blew through three levels, ending his season with rookie level Greeneville. He combined for a 2.64 ERA and a 1.174 WHIP with 21 walks to 69 strikeouts in 61.1 innings. Since signing out of Venezuela in July 2016 for $450,000, Solis added a few ticks to his fastball (low to mid-90's, touching 96) and could add even more as he continues to develop physically. But, honestly, with his great pitchability, clean mechanics and late life on his fastball, the added velo would just be gravy. He also throws a slider that shows promise as a plus offering and has a good feel for his changeup. Solis was ranked as high as #6 by Baseball America going into the 2018 season, and he just turned 18 in December. Be still, my heart!

Forrest Whitley - BA #1, BP #1, FG #1, MLB #1
Honestly, there is zero point in me offering a big write up on Whitley because he has been written up by every prospect pundit in the industry, all of whom have ranked him the number one prospect in the Astros organization. But I will tell you this. Yes, he is legit. Yes, he screwed up (50-game suspension for a positive test for an undisclosed banned substance). Yes, he will learn from the experience, keep his head down and move on (if he doesn't and it happens again, feel free to pull out the pitchforks and torches). Yes, his season is delayed. But he's going to be very, very good and you will like him very, very much.


RIGHT-HANDED STARTERS BEYOND THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)

Yohan Ramírez - July 2017
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Brandon Bielak - FG #28+
Drafted out of Notre Dame in the 11th round in 2017, Bielak impressed in his first professional season, going 2-1 with one save, a 0.80 ERA and a 0.772 WHIP in 10 appearances between the rookie level Gulf Coast League and short season A Tri-City. In 33.2 innings, he walked five while striking out 42. Bielak is said to have a low 90's fastball with good sink, along with a curveball and changeup that are projected as average to a tick above average. Most pundits see Bielak in an eventual middle relief role, but if he even comes close to holding hitters to a .174/.206/.198 line as he did in 2017, his pitchability could keep him in the rotation mix. He will be 22 on Monday.
Keys: Keep missing bats and developing his offspeed.

Akeem Bostick
Bostick was drafted by the Rangers out of his Florence, South Carolina high school in 2013 and was ranked #11 in the Rangers system going in to the 2014 season. Unfortunately, his road up through the minors had a few bumps and those continued following his January 2015 trade to the Astros for Carlos Corporan. There were more ups and downs following his promotion to AA Corpus Christi in late April last season, but Bostick ended it on a good note as the Texas League Pitcher of the Week for the final week of the season. Overall, he had a 4.06 ERA and a 1.334 WHIP with 26 walks to 74 strikeouts in 99.2 innings. Bostick has a solid pitch repertoire but has been somewhat inconsistent in his delivery, in how the ball comes out of his hand. That inconsistency has led to Bostick getting hit hard at times. After a pretty solid winter season in Mexico, Bostick will be looking to prove himself as he heads into his sixth pro season.
Key: Consistency!!!

Humberto Castellanos
In his second professional season, Castellanos made three relief appearances with Tri-City before ending up in rookie league Greeneville for the bulk of the season. That does not appear to have been a demotion (considering he was lights out in Tri-City), but rather an opportunity to get Castellanos more innings and a chance to start. Whatever the reason, he had a very nice season, going 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA, a 1.152 WHIP and nine walks to 40 strikeouts in his 46 innings (and he provided three scoreless innings in his one postseason appearance). When he was first signed out of Mexico in 2015, Baseball America found him to be impressive for his age with outstanding control and a fastball in the low 90's. Castellanos will be 20 in early April.
Key: Build on his early success. I'd like to see him continue in a starting rotation, but with so many talented pitchers leading to a relative dearth of open rotation spots, he may need to overperform to claim one.

José Luis Hernández
Hernández, not to be confused with José Antonio (below), was signed by the Astros out of Mexico in March of 2015. After putting up a very impressive 2.94 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 125.1 innings (24BB:127SO)  between Low A Quad Cities and High A Lancaster in 2016, Hernández sat out 2017 on the DL. (I don't know the nature of his injury.) Prior to the injury, Hernández was said to feature a high 80's to low 90's fastball, curveball, slider and a changeup with fade (Baseball America). I hope to see Hernández back in the saddle in 2017. He will be 23 in May.
Keys: Get (and stay) healthy and miss a few more bats (9 hits per 9 innings in 2016).

Tyler Ivey - FG #27
Ivey got some love from FanGraphs as they ranked him #27 in the Astros system, but he was pretty much ignored by the other prospect pundits, probably due to his lackluster debut. Drafted in the 3rd round in 2017 out of Grayson County College (TX), Ivey spent the vast majority of his inaugural season with short season A Tri-City, compiling a less than spectacular 5.63 ERA and 1.461 WHIP with 14 walks to 44 strikeouts in 38.1 innings. But his improvement to a 2.70 ERA and 1.100 WHIP over his last five appearances (20 innings), along with his workhorse reputation (120 innings in his final year in college), low 90's fastball that touches 95 and plus curveball have me looking for a better overall season in 2018. Ivey will be 22 in May.
Key: Ivey is going to have to miss a whole lot more bats. Overall, he did better in this regard later in the season, but he will have to be more consistent.

Josh James
I have long been a fan of James. He works hard, has a great pitcher's build and is aggressive on the mound. His 2017 season with AA Corpus Christi was a tale of two seasons. From April through July, James had a 2.81 ERA and a 1.203 WHIP in 67.1 innings and he earned a Texas League All-Star nod. Then, after missing the first two weeks of August, James only managed 8.2 innings over his final four appearances, going 0-4 with a 16.62 ERA and a 3.461 WHIP. It doesn't take a "rocket surgeon" to see that something was amiss with Mr. James at the end of the season. I don't have any recent notes regarding James's pitch repertoire, but I previously had him with a low to mid-90's fastball and a plus slider that may play up in a move to the bullpen. James, who was drafted in the 34th round in 2014 out of Western Oklahoma State College, recently turned 25 earlier this month.
Key: I honestly think that in this pitching-rich Astros organization, James's best opportunity may be a move to the bullpen. If that happens, as I think it may, he will need to embrace that opportunity.

Carson LaRue
LaRue continues to surprise me. He has a slight build and doesn't look like a workhorse, someone who would throw in the low-90's up to 94 or so, but he does just that. Aside from the fastball that he locates well, LaRue mixes in a plus slider as well as a curveball and changeup that he is working to fine-tune. LaRue spent the vast majority of his 2017 season with the Low A Quad Cities squad, going 12-4 with one save, a 2.86 ERA and a 1.033 WHIP in 20 appearances before his mid-August promotion to High A Buies Creek which didn't go quite as swimmingly (5.12 ERA, 1.655 WHIP in four games). For the season, he pitched 120 innings, fourth most in the Astros minor league system. Drafted out of Cowley County Community College (KS) in the 14th round in 2016, LaRue just turned 22 earlier this month.
Keys: Keep showing good consistency and the ability to locate and mix pitches well. And keep making incremental improvements with the off-speed repertoire. And do all of that while steadily climbing the ladder through the system. Easy breezy!

Ángel Macuare
When Macuare signed for $695,000 out of Venezuela in July 2016 (ranked #40 by Baseball America in the 2016 international class), Oz Ocampo of the Astros praised Macuare's solid command and feel for pitching, projecting him to have two plus pitches with a low to mid-90's fastball and a hard curveball that generates a lot of swing-and-miss. His first professional season in the Dominican Summer League wasn't exactly impressive, but wasn't disastrous either (4.85 ERA, 1.618 WHIP, 16BB:36SO, 29.2 IP). And considering he just turned 18 on March 3rd, I will definitely be keeping an eye on him.

Ángel Ortega
Another Ángel who signed out of Venezuela in July 2016, this Ángel didn't get quite as big a payday as the last one, signing for "only" $180,000. At the time of his signing, Ortega was said (by Oz Ocampo) to have advanced pitchability and command for his age, featuring a high 80's fastball, as well as a change up and curveball that he can throw for strikes. He lived up to that good assessment in 2017 in the Dominican Summer League where he had a 1.54 ERA and a 0.986 WHIP in 23.1 innings and held batters to a .145 average. Definitely a small sample size and he only made two starts, but he was being stretched out in the latter part of the season. In any event, pretty good for a 17-year old who just turned 18 in November.

Enoli Paredes
Paredes, unfortunately, went on the DL in early June last season for undisclosed reasons after an eye-popping start with Low A Quad Cities that resulted in his Midwest League All-Star nod. In eight games (six starts) for the River Bandits, he had a 2.11 ERA and a 0.887 WHIP in 38.1 innings, holding hitters to a .163 batting average. That is made all the more remarkable by the fact that 2017 was only his second season and he made the leap directly from the Gulf Coast League, bypassing Greeneville and Tri-City altogether. I know very little about Paredes, but at the time of his October 2015 signing out of the Dominican Republic, Baseball America noted a 94 mph fastball, hard curveball, changeup with sink and "bouncy" athleticism.
Key: Get healthy and pick up where he left off!

Yoanys Quiala
Quiala's transition to AA Corpus Christi following his mid-June promotion from High A Buies Creek didn't always go smoothly, but he seemed to have pretty much tamed the beast by season's end. Cumulatively, Quiala had a very nice 2.55 ERA and a 1.180 WHIP in 108.2 innings. He walked 24 and struck out 92. Prior to his signing in June 2015, the Cuban native was said by Baseball America to feature a 90-95 fastball, touching 97 and a plus slider with late bite, to go along with a changeup and splitter. One thing I've noticed about the Cuban contingent is the extreme work ethic from most. After seeing Quiala in Quad Cities in 2016, I hardly recognized him when I saw him next in August 2017. He had transformed himself, easily losing 25 pounds or more, and adding a lot of muscle. I would not bet against the 2017 Carolina League All-Star as he keeps progressing through the system.
Key: Keep the hits under control. Quiala allowed a highly elevated hit rate when he was first promoted to Corpus Christi. He had it under control by the end of the season, though, and kept the walks under control throughout.

Yohan Ramírez
Ramírez is another player, like Paredes, who jumped from the Gulf Coast League in his first season to Low A Quad Cities in his second in 2017, but not before making three very successful spot starts at High A Buies Creek and AA Corpus Christi first (which tells me that the Astros like him very much!). Ramírez started off the season very well; in his first 11 appearances, he had a 2.47 ERA and a 1.237 WHIP in 43.2 innings, holding batters to a .201 average. But in his last nine regular season appearances, that ballooned to a 7.67 ERA and 1.863 WHIP (.303 BA) in 31.2 innings. His season may have been uneven, but with electric stuff that he can crank up to 98 or 99, you will be well served to keep an eye on him. 2017 Quad Cities Manager Russ Steinhorn said that Ramírez reminds him of Jandel Gustave -- the same kind of build with a quick arm, throwing hard with a good slider. I think Ramírez may open some eyes in 2018, but may ultimately land in a bullpen role. He will be 23 in May.
Key: Keep more guys off base more consistently.

Elian Rodríguez - BA #29
The Cuban-born Rodríguez did appear on one of the top prospect lists, at #29 out of #30 in Baseball America's Prospect Handbook. But others have backed away from him due to the poor control that resulted in a 7.46 ERA, 2.211 WHIP and 30 walks to 19 strikeouts in 25.1 innings in his first season with the Dominican Summer League. He's a hard thrower with a fastball that tops out at 97 and a hard slider. He also has a good pitcher's build and plus athleticism, but MLB Pipeline noted that he is "more power than polish" as they dropped him off their top list for Astros prospects going in to the 2018 season. Signed in June 2017 for $2,000,000, Rodríguez turned 21 earlier this month.
Key: Right now, his future development hinges on just one thing. Throw strikes!!

Matt Ruppenthal
Drafted in the 17th round in 2017 out of Vanderbilt, Ruppenthal had a nice freshman season, going 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.394 WHIP in 23.2 innings with short season A Tri-City. He walked only eight batters while striking out 29, but the 9.5 hits per nine innings was less than optimal. He did improve in that regard, however, allowing a .314 batting average in July, but only a .237 average in August. Although Ruppenthal was a reliever at Vanderbilt, the Astros had him start all but one of his outings in 2017. At the time of the draft, Baseball America touted his plus curveball, a fastball that he can deliver at 94 to 95 (but locates better a notch or two lower) and a changeup that he will need to develop to stay in the rotation. Ruppenthal will be 23 in October.
Keys: Keep developing his pitch repertoire and (stop me if you've heard this before) miss more bats!

Heitor Tokar
Although it is highly unlikely that I will get the opportunity to see Tokar until 2019 at the very earliest, I can't wait! Tokar, who only turned 17 in October, signed out of Brazil in July for $300,000. Baseball America had him as the #50 overall top prospect in the 2017 international class and called him an "enormous pitcher with a heavy build," an apt descriptor for a 6'7" 250# pitcher (and that was when he was still 16!). Oz Ocampo of the Astros projects Tokar as a power starter with a fastball that is currently in the high 80's to low 90's, a solid changeup and two breaking pitches (curveball and slider) that he can throw for strikes. He is also said to have a nice repeatable delivery and advanced pitchability for his age. I expect him to start his season in the Dominican Summer League more due to his age than anything else.

Others to Watch (in alphabetical order):

Ronel Blanco
Blanco is an older prospect who will be 25 in August, but has only two professional seasons under his belt. After spending the majority of his 2016 season in the Dominican Summer League, he skipped ahead to Low A Quad Cities where he made all but one of his 2017 appearances. That is a big jump and Blanco had mixed results, but was improving late in the season, including collecting a career-high 10 strikeouts in his 6.2 inning championship-clinching postseason win over Fort Wayne. The bad news is that Blanco sees A LOT of traffic. He will have to rein in the walks and miss a whole lot more bats. Look for the Astros to continue moving him aggressively.

Jose Bravo
Bravo signed with the Astros out of Mexico in July 2016 and had a nice inaugural season in 2016 in the Dominican Summer League (2.90 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, 2BB:25SO, 31IP) as a 19-year old, but then sat out the entire 2017 season (which often means TJ surgery, but I don't have any confirmation of that). Bravo will be 21 in June and I'll be keeping an eye out for him to see what he does.

Chad Donato
Although Donato was drafted in the 11th round in 2016 out of West Virginia University, he didn't make his professional debut until July 2017, just over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Through six appearances with the Gulf Coast League and four appearances with rookie level Greeneville, he had a solid season with a 2.78 ERA, a 1.330 WHIP and 13 walks to 44 strikeouts in 32.1 innings. Prior to the injury, Donato was said to have a low 90's fastball and a plus curveball with good depth. A few months further removed from TJ surgery, Donato should be interesting to watch. He will be 23 in early June.

Tanner Duncan
If you like underdogs (and who doesn't?), you've got to love Duncan's story. He was signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2017 playing Club Baseball at East Carolina. In 11 appearances with the Gulf Coast League last season, he was 1-2 with one save, a 2.17 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and issued eight walks to 31 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. Yes, he was a bit long in the tooth for the Gulf Coast League, but I will be watching for him in 2018 and rooting him on nonetheless! Duncan will be 24 in August.

Fredis Guerrero
Guerrero had a great first pro season, starting with 10 appearances in the Dominican Summer League followed by a nice transition to the States with three outings in the Gulf Coast League. Overall, he was 4-1 with two saves, a 2.11 ERA and a 1.066 WHIP with 12 walks to 49 strikeouts in 55.1 innings. The one thing that keeps me from getting too excited about him, though, is that he turned 22 in February, a tad old for a second year Latin player. However, if he can build on his early success and move quickly, he could be interesting to watch.

José Antonio Hernández
Anytime I see an 18-year old put up a good season as did Hernández in his second professional season in the Dominican Summer League, I start to pay attention. Although Hernández faded a bit down the stretch, he still managed a solid 3.86 ERA and 1.243 WHIP, allowing 14 walks and 44 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. Originally signed out of Venezuela in May 2016, Hernández will be 19 in June.

Ronaldo Marrero - Released April 2018
Marrero is a 22-year old convert to pitching. He was originally in the Phillies organization and signed with the Astros in January 2017. Although it was a small sample size, Marrero was extremely good in the Dominican Summer League (2.45 ERA and 0.709 WHIP in 18.1 innings) and extremely NOT good after his promotion to the Gulf Coast League (9.00 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in 7 innings). What can I say? I like a good underdog story so I'll be keeping an eye on Marrero.

Medina spent a couple of seasons in the Astros organization as a middle infielder before he too converted to pitching. Medina only made a couple of starts, but they were at the end of the season after he'd been stretched out in the latter part of the season. He had a 2.86 ERA and 1.448 WHIP in 38.2 innings (all in the Dominican Summer League), improving to 0.47 ERA and a 1.107 WHIP in his 19 innings in August (five appearances, two starts). Again, I will be rooting for the underdog! Medina will be 21 in September.

Although 2017 was technically the second pro season for Mejias, he only pitched three innings in his first season in 2016. His season was uneven, but he showed enough promise as an 18-year old that he bears watching. Marrero was at his best in July before backsliding a bit in August and ended the season with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP in 51.2 innings in the Dominican Summer League. He will be 19 in May.

Although a 3.29 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 27.1 innings isn't something to write home about, doing that at 17 in your first pro season isn't too shabby. Oberto will definitely need to rein in the hits and the walks, but his 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings is enough to make me pay attention.

Robles had a pretty good track record in his first two professional seasons, but stumbled a bit in his third between Greeneville and Tri-City (4.73 ERA, 1.519 WHIP in 51.1 innings). He did, however, seem to turn a corner late in the season (although his walk rate was still on the high side). He will need to keep improving to stay in the rotation, but he only turned 20 in November so he still has time. Robles was signed out of Mexico in July 2014.

Rodríguez will be 22 in June and is headed into his fourth season. His third was pretty successful, going 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP, walking only 12 while striking out 59 in 58.1 innings between rookie level Greeneville and short season A Tri-City. The only real quibble I have with Mr. Rodríguez is that he tends to run into a few too many bats, but at least he makes up for it with that nice, low walk rate. He just really needs to be moved faster at this point in his development. It will be up to him to respond accordingly.

Signed out of Venezuela in June 2016, Rodríguez transitioned from the Dominican Summer League (where he had been very dominant) to the Gulf Coast League in his second season in 2017. There was a bit of an adjustment to the higher level, but when all was said and done, he ended the season with a 2.05 ERA and a 1.158 WHIP, 17 walks to 63 strikeouts in 57 innings. Since he will be 21 in April, he needs to be challenged to higher levels of competition in 2018.

Rosado started his season with short season A Tri-City, but was quickly promoted to Low A Quad Cities where he struggled at times. But how much of that has to do with the higher level of competition and how much has to do with the injuries that kept him sidelined for a decent chunk of the season is anyone's guess. The career 2.96 ERA and 1.267 WHIP through three seasons is reason enough for me to keep an eye out to see what Rosado can do in 2018 if healthy. He will be 22 in June.

Abdiel Saldaña
Saldaña is one of my intangibles guys. He has great leadership qualities and uses his English skills to  help the communication flow between coaching staff, catchers and players. (If he doesn't make it as a player, I think he would be a fine coach!) For the season, he had a 3.39 ERA and a 1.362 WHIP in 90.1 innings between Low A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek. He started the season slowly (and in relief), but played well enough from May forward to earn a rotation spot for Quad Cities in July. He struggled a bit following his mid-August promotion to Buies Creek, but overall it was a solid season. Saldaña turned 22 earlier this month.

Previous Posts:
Shortstops
Second Base
First Base
Utility Players

Monday, March 26, 2018

Astros Farm Report: 3/26

Catching you up on the latest Astros MiLB news ...

The Farm Report will be abbreviated today because I'm trying to finish up the last post in my Beyond the Top 30 series on right-handed starters. SPOILER: There are a ton of talented pitchers in the Astros system and the last post is going to be super-sized!!

WISHING A VERY HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO

Cristian Javier - April 2017
Photo by Jayne Hansen

3-26: RHP Cristian Javier (21)
3-26: LHP Ricardo León (17)
3-28: IF/OF Marcos Almonte (22)
3-30: 3B Alex Bregman (24)
3-30: RHP Willy Collado (20)
3-30: OF Jake Marisnick (27)
4-01: OF César Cortez (19)

ROSTER MOVES/TRANSACTIONS

There were a few minor league releases announced on Sunday ...
  • IF Rodrigo Ayarza - Signed as a MiLB free agent by the Astros in May 2014; originally signed by the Rangers out of Panama in June 2012
  • LHP Matt Bower - Drafted in the 23rd round in 2015 out of Washington State University
  • IF Wander Franco - Signed by the Astros out of the Dominican Republic in July 2013
  • C Anthony Hermelyn - Drafted in the 4th round in 2015 out of the University of Oklahoma
  • 1B Dexture McCall - Drafted in the 31st round in 2014 out of Hillsborough Community College (FL)
  • LHP Salvador Montaño - Signed by the Astros out of the Dominican Republic in November 2013
  • LHP Nathan Thompson - Drafted in the 27th round in 2016 out of Oklahoma Baptist University
  • 3B Brody Westmoreland - Drafted in the 30th round in 2016 out of the College of Southern Nevada
In addition, it appears that the Astros have re-signed Free Agent C Eduardo de Oleo and have assigned him to AA Corpus Christi

You can check the cumulative Astros offseason transaction list here to see if you've missed any of the posted moves this offseason. I will be updating this list until the minor league season starts on April 5th.

NEWS AND LINKS

Over the last few weeks, I've been rolling out a "Beyond the Top 30" series, looking at both those Astros players who are considered Top 30 prospects and others at each position who may not be top talents (or may grow to be), but will be interesting to watch nonetheless. So far we've looked at ...

Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen
Third Basemen
Center Field
Right Field
Left Field
Catchers
Utility Players
Left-Handed Pitchers
Right-Handed Relievers
Right-Handed Starters - Coming this week

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Beyond The Astros Top 30: Right-Handed Relievers

As the old year fades away and the new season approaches, it's time to start looking at those players of interest who are beyond the Astros Top 30 (or 32 ... see below). These players may not ever make a Top 30 list (or they may), but a combination of projections, actual results, incremental improvements and intangibles keep them in the mix as interesting players to watch. I am not including any players in these posts who have already made their major league debuts since, presumably, anyone reading my blog is already very familiar with those players.

Now that all of the major players (Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline and Baseball America) have weighed in with their Astros Top Prospect Lists, I've integrated all of the rankings into one consensus top prospect ranking that includes 32 Astros players (16 were ranked on all four lists, nine were on three of four and the final seven were on two of four). I highly recommend checking out the included links for all of the great information provided.

[UPDATES TO FINAL 2018 PRE-SEASON RANKINGS SHOWN IN RED.
BA= BASEBALL AMERICA, BP = BASEBALL PROSPECTUS,
FG=FANGRAPHS, MLB = MLB PIPELINE]

Note: Although I included all of the left-handed pitchers in my previous post, I will be dividing the right-handers into relievers and starters due to the sheer number of pitchers I will be covering. Those listed as relievers are either currently being used in relief or appear to be headed in that direction.

RIGHT-HANDED RELIEVERS IN THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)


Riley Ferrell - November 2017
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Dean Deetz - MLB #18, FG #21, BA #22
Deetz is new to this list, having only converted full time to the bullpen late in the 2017 season at AAA Fresno (1.56 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in nine appearances), but the move was not unexpected since he will be able to focus on his plus fastball/slider combo and relegate his less than effective changeup to the dustbin. Deetz continued working in relief in the Arizona Fall League to help acclimate him to the role, but an 80-game suspension which came down in January will delay any further development as a reliever until late in the season. Although Deetz's pitches play up in relief, particularly due to a bump in velocity directly resulting from the shorter stints (fastball sits mid 90's and can touch 97 or 98 in relief), his walk rate tends to spike with the higher velo as well as his ability to locate takes a hit. Although it was a small sample size, Deetz did appear to get the walks under control in the AFL as he allowed only four walks to 23 strikeouts in 11 innings of work. Perhaps he found his sweet spot between velocity and command. Unfortunately, we will have to wait and see. Deetz was drafted by the Astros in the 11th round in 2014 out of Northeast Oklahoma A&M and turned 24 in November. He was ranked #18 by MLB Pipeline, #21 by FanGraphs and #22 by Baseball America going into the 2018 season.

Riley Ferrell - FG #17, MLB #20, BA #27
Ferrell was ranked #20 in the Astros system by Baseball America going in to 2016, but fell off the list in 2017 as a May 2016 surgical repair to an aneurysm in his throwing shoulder severely limited his playing time. After making 38 appearances in 2017, all but two with the AA Corpus Christi team, Ferrell hit the rankings again -- #17 by FanGraphs, #20 by MLB Pipeline and #27 by Baseball America. Ferrell uses a mid-90's fastball that touches 98 to set up a plus slider that is virtually unhittable when his command is on. Ferrell compiled a 3.67 ERA and a 1.204 WHIP in 2017, walking 14 and striking out 60 in 54 innings but improved to a 2.45 ERA and 0.775 WHIP from July forward. He ended the season with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.243 WHIP, allowing only a 0.75 batting average in his final nine appearances. His Arizona Fall League season was more of a mixed bag. His critics want to see better control/command from him, but I think he made really good strides in that area in 2017. With a little more consistency, he should be headed to Houston by season's end. Ferrell was drafted in the third round in 2015 out of Texas Christian University and he turned 24 in October.

RIGHT-HANDED RELIEVERS BEYOND THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)

Erasmo Pinales - July 2016
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Jesús Balaguer
Signed in April 2017, Balaguer is one of a growing contingent of Cuban players in the Astros system. Reported to have a 95-mph fastball at the time of his signing, I know virtually nothing else about Balaguer except that his results in his first season in the States were enough to pique my interest. He breezed through three games with rookie level Greeneville and five games with short season A Tri-City before he was finally challenged in his 10 appearances at Low A Quad Cities. For the season, he compiled a 2.73 ERA and a 1.061 WHIP, walking 15 and striking out 53(!) in 33 innings. Batters hit .175/.271/.263 against him; he converted four of his five save opportunities; he stranded 13 of 14 inherited runners; and he provided five innings of scoreless relief in three appearances in the postseason. Balaguer will be 25 in August so expect to see the Astros continue to push him through the system quickly.
Key: Balaguer will need to show that he can compete against more and more experienced hitters as he moves up through the system.

Dorris has a fantastic back story and knows that, as a non-drafted free agent, he's playing with "house money" so he may as well enjoy himself. That attitude shows both on and off the field as the unorthodox sidearmer has bucked the odds so far to make it to AAA Fresno in his third pro season in 2017. Dorris started the season with 23 appearances at AA Corpus Christi before an early July promotion to Fresno, compiling a 4-2 record with three saves, a 3.00 ERA, a 1.222 WHIP in a total of 43 outings. He walked 28 while striking out 75 in 72 innings. And his numbers actually improved at the higher level (1.87 ERA, 1.040 WHIP and .185 BA).
Key: Historically, Dorris has struggled against lefty hitters and 2017 was no exception; southpaws hit .300/.398/.470 against him. He will need to figure out how to keep those pesky lefties in check in order to keep his forward momentum going.

Although used as a starter throughout the first four seasons of his pro career, Dykxhoorn was moved to the bullpen at the end of the 2017 season. That may have been a temporary move to facilitate the addition of high profile pitchers Forrest Whitley and Cionel Perez, but a permanent move to relief may turn out to be a good move for Dykxhoorn who has routinely put up better numbers in relief (through the back end of a tandem rotation or otherwise). For the season (all games with AA Corpus Christi), Dykxhoorn had a 5.45 ERA and a 1.579 WHIP in 76 innings as a starter (33 walks to 60 strikeouts) and a 1.93 ERA and a 1.243 WHIP in 23.1 innings of relief (7 walks to 24 strikeouts). That leads me to think that he lacks a consistent third pitch and his stuff may be a better fit for the 'pen. Dykxhoorn, who will be 24 in July, was drafted in the sixth round in 2014 out of Central Arizona College.
Key: If Dykxhoorn goes back to the rotation, he will have to find more consistency because when he gets hit, he has a tendency to get hit hard.

In each of the last two seasons, Ferrell started out in the rotation, but ended up relegated primarily to the bullpen later in the season where his stuff played up. In 31.1 innings as a starter in 2017, he had a 7.18 ERA, a 1.619 WHIP and 12 walks to 25 strikeouts. In 51 innings out of the bullpen, he had a 2.47 ERA, a 1.176 WHIP and 17 walks to 64 strikeouts. 2018 will be the fifth season for the 2014 36th rounder out of Connors State College (OK) and he needs to be challenged to AA. Put him in the Hooks bullpen and give him a chance to sink or swim by the Bay. Ferrell will be 24 next month.
Key: Leave him in the bullpen and challenge him to the higher levels!

Nick Hernandez - FG #28+
Hernandez's second season began with an excellent 24 appearances with High A Buies Creek in which he compiled a 1.59 ERA and a 0.853 WHIP in 34 innings (11 walks to 48 strikeouts). His numbers after his early July promotion to AA Corpus Christi weren't quite as flashy (thanks in part to one particularly brutal outing); in 24.2 innings, Hernandez had a 5.84 ERA and a 1.297 WHIP (15 walks to 22 strikeouts). And although his walk rate and home run rate were elevated (he allowed four home runs in the aforementioned brutal outing) at the higher level, he was still the go-to guy in high leverage situations, stranding inherited bases loaded situations on four separate occasions out of his 11 appearances. Hernandez was drafted in the 8th round in 2016 out of the University of Houston; he turned 23 in December.
Key: Other than keeping those walks in check, I think Nick just needs to keep being Nick! It's worked well so far for him.

Hill spent the majority of his season with Low A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek with a short but successful fill-in stint at AA Corpus Christi thrown in. For the season, he had a 1.95 ERA and a 0.990 WHIP in 64.2 innings (26 appearances), walking 21 and striking out 68. If that wasn't good enough for you, from June 18th forward, he held batters to a .149 batting average with a 0.70 ERA and a 0.780 WHIP. With numbers like that, Hill isn't getting the notice that he deserves! Hill was drafted in the 25th round in 2016 out of the University of South Alabama where he had a reputation for great command and pitch sequencing. He will be 26 in August.
Key: Hill needs to be challenged. He should start the season in AA, but if he is able to come even close to his 2017 results, he should get kicked up to AAA sooner rather than later.

McCurry's 2017 season was more than a bit uneven, starting rough and ending rough but peaking with an excellent July (0.00 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in 11 games, 15.1 innings). Overall, he was 4-2 with six saves, a 4.43 ERA and a 1.410 WHIP, walking 12 and striking out 52 in 44.2 innings (35 appearances) for AAA Fresno. Known for using varying arm angles for deception, McCurry wasn't able to fool quite as many hitters in 2017 as his hit rate per nine innings spiked to an unsustainable 10.3. McCurry was originally drafted by Oakland in the 22nd round in 2014 and came to Houston in the November 2015 Jed Lowrie trade. He turned 26 in January.
Key: Consistency (and missing a few more bats)! McCurry has been incredibly dominant at times, but he hasn't been able to sustain that yet at the AAA level. He's had an excellent Spring Training and I hope to see him carry that over into the regular season.

I have been a fan of Pinales since I saw him in Tri-City in 2016. He can throw so many different pitches at widely varying speeds, can crank up the velo when needed, generates a lot of ground ball outs and swing-and-miss, and is almost as effective against lefties as right-handers. His 3.69 ERA (21 games with Low A Quad Cities and 12 games with High A Buies Creek) is inflated by a couple of bad outings. He only allowed multiple runs in five of his 33 appearances. He had a 1.131 WHIP and allowed a .198 batting average in 61 innings, walking 26 and striking out 63. He can give you multiple innings, close (six saves in 2017) and should be able to make a spot start since he was used as a starter prior to 2017. I really like his versatility. Pinales was signed in May of 2013 and will be going in to his sixth season, having turned 23 in November.
Keys: Now that Pinales has been moved to the bullpen, he should be able to move more quickly (and needs to). He was able to lower his walk rate in the second half of the season last year; I would like to see him maintain that.

Thome started the 2017 season with four appearances in High A Buies Creek and then spent the remainder of the season shuttling back and forth between AA Corpus Christi (28 games) and AAA Fresno (8 games). Thome performed well with Corpus Christi, going 4-4 with seven saves, a 2.85 ERA and a 1.195 WHIP (13BB:33SO in 41IP) and less well at Fresno, thanks in large part to one dreadful outing (in an overall dreadful 22-1 loss) in which he allowed five earned runs in one inning of work. Thome isn't a flamethrower, but has good sink on his fastball and induces a ton of ground balls. Thome was signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2015 and turned 25 in January.
Keys: Hit the ground running to show that he can compete against AAA hitters. His hit rate in Fresno last season, although a limited sample size, was far too high. As a NDFA, he almost needs to outperform draft picks; missing more bats is vital.

Thompson had a very similar season to Thome's, shuttling back and forth between AA Corpus Christi (31 games) and AAA Fresno (6 games) with similar results. Thompson was 2-3 with six saves, a 2.59 ERA, a 1.186 WHIP and 11 walks to 59 strikeouts in 59 innings at the lower level. And like Thome, one disastrous outing at the higher level (seven runs in one inning) really blew up his numbers. Also like Thome, Thompson needs to miss a few more bats. But one thing that really sets Thompson apart is his ability to strand inherited runners. He kept 26 of his 31 inherited runners from scoring. Thompson also gets his share of groundball outs, but his side arm delivery generates a nice amount of swing-and-miss through its deception. Thompson was drafted by the Astros in the 23rd round in 2014 out of Campbell University (NC) and will be 26 in June.
Keys: Miss more bats, improve his splits against lefties and prove he can compete in AAA. He was Mr. Consistent at AA; he needs to replicate that at AAA.

Others to Watch (in alphabetical order):

José Betances
Although Betances didn't make a good first impression in 2017 (eight walks and one strikeout in 2.2 innings), the sample size is just too tiny to make too much out of it, especially considering the young Dominican just turned 18 in October. When signed for around $280,000 last July, Oz Ocampo of the Astros described Betances as having a low to mid-90's swing-and-miss fastball and a hard slider, both of which project as plus pitches.

Robert Corniel
At first blush, Corniel's 2017 numbers may not seem very impressive (4.15 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 18 bullpen appearances, 34.2 innings), but considering that he made all but three of those appearances in Low A Quad Cities after spending 2016 in the Dominican Summer League, that he had a 1.35 ERA and 0.975 WHIP (.146 BA) in his final eight games, and that he converted two saves in his four postseason appearances while allowing zero runs, he suddenly becomes more interesting. Corniel, who will be 23 in June, was originally signed in July 2012 and missed the 2014 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Luís de Paula
Signed in November 2016, de Paula got off to a good start in his first pro season in the Dominican Summer League, collecting four saves with a 1.38 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in 19 appearances (26 innings). However, he struggled at times with walks and he was 21 in November which means that he'll need to be moved more aggressively.

Brendan Feldmann
Feldmann, a non-drafted free agent out of Lindenwood University in Missouri, was kept in the rookie level Gulf Coast League despite allowing his only earned run of the season in his first of 12 appearances. He only pitched 16.2 innings, but that may very well have been by design to limit his workload as he pitched 121 innings, including four complete games, in his final year with Linwood. In any event, his 2-1 record with two saves, a 0.54 ERA, a 0.600 WHIP (one walk to 21 strikeouts) and the fact that he stranded 10 of 13 inherited runners is enough for me to say, "Watch this space!," regardless of where he pitches in 2018 and in what role. Feldmann will be 24 in April.

Ángel Heredia
It is not an exaggeration to say that 2018 is a make or break year for Heredia as it will be his seventh season in the Astros organization. Heredia was out from late May of 2016 to mid-August 2017 and, although I don't recall ever hearing that he had Tommy John surgery, the timeline would fit. He only appeared in seven rehab appearances at the end of the season between the Gulf Coast League and Tri-City. A small-sized pitcher, Heredia has shown some promise in the past, but he will have to hit the ground running this season to maintain his roster spot in AA Corpus Christi. He will be 26 in July.

Martin, drafted in the 20th round in 2017 out of the University of Nashville, did make three starts in his 12 appearances so a relief role is still a maybe, but he did fare somewhat better in relief. His 3.86 ERA and 1.439 WHIP are somewhat inflated by one bad outing, the final of his season. When signed, he was said to have a high 80's to low 90's fastball, a changeup that projects as above average and the ability to spot the ball to both sides of the plate. Martin was a short season A Tri-City All-Star in his first season and I'll be interested to see what he does in his sophomore season. Martin turned 23 in December.

McKee has one of the lower hit rates and one of the higher walk rates in the system. If he can rein in the walks, he could be interesting to watch. Drafted in the 18th round in 2016 out of Mercyhurst College (PA), McKee has a good pitcher's build and features a low 90's fastball and a plus slider. In 41 innings (17 appearances) in 2017 for short season A Tri-City, he had a 3.51 ERA and a 1.268 WHIP, walking 33 and striking out 53. Batters hit .137/.303/.194 against him; I will be keeping my eye on that middle number in 2018. McKee will be 24 in June.

Ramsey was signed by the Astros as a minor league free agent in December 2017 (after spending time in the Rays, Marlins and Brewers organizations). He spent most of his 2017 season with the AA Biloxi team as a 27-year old (he turned 28 in September), going 3-3 with 27 saves, a 3.65 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP, walking 18 and striking out 58 in 44.1 innings. It's hard for me to get too excited about someone his age who has only pitched in five games at AAA and who has been less than stellar in Astros Spring Training games, but since he was ranked highly in the Marlins organization going into 2015 before getting derailed by back issues, I will give him the benefit of a doubt.

Sierra had a successful season in 2017, compiling a 3-2 record with two saves, a 2.83 ERA and a 1.099 WHIP in 29 appearances between Low A Quad Cities (4 games) and High A Buies Creek (25 games). He walked 24 while striking out 60 in 57.1 innings of work and held batters to a .186/.273/.290 line. HOWEVER, he allowed 17 of 24 inherited runners to score. Sierra may have had a great season, but he needs to get better at putting out fires. The Cuban-born right-hander will be 24 in October.

Peter Solomon - FG #28+
Solomon may get an audition as a starter in the Astros organization, but since he primarily pitched in relief for Notre Dame in his final season before getting drafted in the fourth round, I'm including him with the relief corps. And since he only pitched one inning in his first pro season, there's no way to really know. Solomon is said to have a low to mid-90's fastball, a fringy slider and a curveball that flashes plus. However, there are a whole lot of buts in the scouting reports. He's had shoulder issues, control problems, needs to add bulk to his projectible frame and struggled in a starting role with Notre Dame. I will be keeping an eye on him, but it appears that he has a few hurdles to overcome when he gets down to work in 2018. He will be 22 in August.

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