Some Observations on the Astros and the Upcoming Rule 5 Draft

In order for minor league players to be protected, they will need to be added to 40-man rosters and reserve lists by November 20th in advance of the Rule 5 draft which will be held on December 12th at the winter meetings. As of today, the Astros 40-man roster stands at 36 players, not counting Alex White who is still shown as being on the 60-day DL (which doesn't count against the 40). Jon Singleton has already been added and is included in the 36. There still may be another move or two to free up some extra room in order to protect current Astros players who are now Rule 5 eligible and to give Jeff Luhnow room to add one or two Rule 5 draftees of his own (keeping in mind that the Astros have the first selection). Let's take a look at some of the higher profile players who will merit consideration for a 40-man roster spot.

PITCHERS
Since players taken in the Rule 5 draft have to remain on the drafting team's 25-man roster for the full season*, pitchers are taken much more frequently than position players simply because it's fairly easy to use a pitcher sparingly out of the bullpen. Position players can't be tucked away quite so neatly if they struggle. With that said, here are three pitchers who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft who merit consideration for a roster spot and my ramblings on a few more interesting names.

RHP Asher Wojciechowski/Starter - Wojciechowski is as close to a slam dunk for protection on the 40-man roster as probably anyone in the system for two reasons. He had a terrific season in 2013 and he is more or less major-league ready. He led the Astros minor league system with 160 innings pitched and ended the season with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.150 WHIP between Corpus Christi and Oklahoma City. His last 21 starts were for the AAA team. He struck out 131 batters and walked only 51 for the season. I cannot envision any scenario in which he is NOT placed on the 40-man roster.

RHP Jake Buchanan/Starter - Jake Buchanan is a very different pitcher from Wojciechowski (more of a groundball pitcher pitching to contact), but he is equally deserving of a roster spot for most of the same reasons. Buchanan also had a very good season and is also major-league ready, at least in my eyes. His 158+ innings ranked second in the Astros minor league system. He only pitched in 12 games at AAA this season, but he was ready for the level long before he was finally promoted. Buchanan ended his season with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.099 WHIP, striking out 99 and walking 22. I believe that he will be protected, but he may not be seen by others as major-league ready due to his limited time at AAA.

RHP Andrew Robinson/Reliever - Robinson is a guy that I would probably claim in the Rule 5 draft if he was left unprotected. As I noted above, bullpen guys are easier to tuck away if they struggle, but I have no reason to believe that Robinson couldn't make the leap from AA Corpus Christi to a major league bullpen. His plus fastball and big curveball are weapons that would help him make that leap. With the tandem pitching rotation, Robinson showed signs of rust early in the season, but once he was used regularly, he put up some excellent numbers. For the full season, Robinson had a 3.28 ERA and a 1.236 WHIP. In the last three months of the season, he had a 1.69 ERA and a 0.991 WHIP. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Astros protect him. He is currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League.

Other Pitchers - There are several other pitchers who, if not protected on the 40-man roster, will make attractive targets. Lefty Luis Cruz was part of a combined no-hitter in May in Lancaster and threw a complete game shutout in one of his first games for Corpus Christi. I don't believe that he would be taken simply because he doesn't have much experience above High A yet, but lefty starters are always in demand. Alex Sogard and Pat Urckfitz are bullpen lefties that could draw some interest. Sogard struggled some this season, but Urckfitz had a solid year and ended it in AAA Oklahoma City. Tommy Shirley is another intriguing lefty, but due to injuries earlier in his career, he hasn't pitched above High A so I believe he's safe.

On the other hand (literally), Bobby Doran is another big durable right-handed innings-eater who seems to always fly under the radar despite putting up solid numbers. He split his season between Corpus Christi and Oklahoma City, making his last eight starts at the AAA level. I don't believe that he will be protected, but it will be a calculated risk. I was somewhat surprised last season that righty reliever Jason Stoffel was not protected. He had a solid season in 2013, not quite as dominant as his 2012 campaign, but he could be targeted as well if not protected. I've been high on Corpus Christi reliever Carlos Quevedo for quite some time. I am convinced that he will eventually pitch in a long relief/spot starting role out of a major league bullpen, whether that happens for the Astros or some other team.

POSITION PLAYERS
As I noted above, position players are not taken as often as pitchers in the Rule 5 draft. Those who are taken are usually very close to being major-league ready. But even if a player isn't ready for the bigs, leaving a top prospect unprotected could prove too tempting for other teams. Here are three players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft who may merit consideration for the 40-man roster and my musings on a few other players.

RF Domingo Santana - I think Santana would be one of those players who would prove too big a temptation if he wasn't protected. If he was left unprotected and if he was claimed in the Rule 5 draft, I don't think he would stick with the claiming team because, in my opinion, he isn't quite ready for prime time, but the fact remains that he does have a ton of talent. In 112 games at AA Corpus Christi this season, he hit .252/.345/.498 with 23 doubles, two triples and 25 home runs. How do you not protect a guy that does that?

C Rene Garcia and C Carlos Perez - I'm going to group these two together. I really can't see how the Astros will be able to find room on the 40-man roster to protect both players, but I also can't imagine leaving two AAA backstops unprotected after the catching woes incurred by the team this season. Both players split their seasons between AA and AAA. Perez hit .271/.332/.356 with 18 doubles and three home runs in 91 games. He had a 48% caught stealing rate for the season. Garcia hit .293/.336/.394 with 20 doubles, one triple and five home runs, also in 91 games. Garcia, however, didn't fare quite as well at the plate at AAA as Perez did. Garcia's caught stealing rate was 46% for the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of these players protected, but I would be flabbergasted to see both simply because I don't believe that room will be available.

Other Position Players - 3B Jonathan Meyer and 1B Erik Castro are two players who I don't think will be protected this year, but who may get some attention if they aren't. They both had solid seasons at the plate in Corpus Christi and both are plus defenders. Before OF Austin Wates' season-ending fractured forearm, I would have said that Wates would need to be protected, but I don't believe that will happen now.

FINAL THOUGHTS
There are some other interesting players who are eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft this year, but some of those players either had rough seasons and/or some haven't spent any significant time (or any time at all) above High A. Obviously, not everyone can be protected on the 40-man roster. Some players will be added to the 38-man AAA reserve list so that they will not be subject to the minor league phases of the Rule 5 draft. If those AAA reserve players are drafted, it will have to be in the major league phase of the draft in which case the players will have to remain on the drafting team's 25-man roster for the whole season*. So the Astros will have to determine which players are more likely to "stick" with another team as they make those decisions.

Last season Marc Krauss was left unprotected and, according to one member of the Astros brain trust, that gave them some anxious moments. But when all was said and done, although there was definite interest in Krauss, it came down to another team's inability to find room on their 25-man roster for a full season. It's simply not that easy to do and that's why so very few players are drafted in the Rule 5 draft and stick with a team. It's also the case that often minor league fans overvalue prospects. We may think much more highly of a player than the other teams' front offices do. When all is said and done, the Astros front office will take some risks in leaving players unprotected, but it will be a highly educated guess based on many factors. I will leave the heavy lifting up to them.

*If the player doesn't stay on the 25-man roster, he will have to be put through waivers. If claimed, the new team will be subject to the same conditions regarding that player. If not claimed, the player will be offered back to the team from which they were drafted.