Wednesday, January 23, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Los Angeles Dodgers

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 935 | Signed 553 | Pitchers Signed 275 | Position Players Signed 278
Total WAR 299.5
Total Players to MLB 86

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 3 to MLB | WAR 9.4 | High WAR 10.2, C David Ross, 7th rd
1999 | 5 to MLB | WAR 32.5 | High WAR 31.6, OF Shane Victorino, 6th rd
2000 | 5 to MLB | WAR 1.5 | High WAR 4.6, RHP Joel Hanrahan, 2nd rd
2001 | 1 to MLB | WAR 11.2 | High WAR 11.2, OF Edwin Jackson, 6th rd
2002 | 6 to MLB | WAR 62.3 | High WAR 37.1, 2B Russell Martin, 17th rd
2003 | 9 to MLB | WAR 47.4 | High WAR 22.2, OF Matt Kemp, 6th rd
2004 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.0 | High WAR 2.6, RHP Javy Guerra, 4th rd
2005 | 8 to MLB | WAR 1.3 | High WAR 4.2, OF Scott Van Slyke, 14th rd
2006 | 2 to MLB | WAR 67.1 | High WAR 64.6, LHP Clayton Kershaw, 1st rd
2007 | 2 to MLB | WAR 1.0 | High WAR 1.5, RHP Chris Winthrow, 1st rd
2008 | 8 to MLB | WAR 17.1 | High WAR 11.4, SS Dee Gordon, 4th rd
2009 | 2 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR 0.0, OF Blake Smith (2nd rd) & RHP Steve Ames (17th rd)
2010 | 6 to MLB | WAR 11.3 | High WAR 7.5, OF Joc Pederson, 11th rd
2011 | 4 to MLB | WAR (0.2) | High WAR 0.1, RHP Scott Barlow, 6th rd
2012 | 8 to MLB | WAR 19.3 | High WAR 13.7, SS Corey Seager, 1st rd
2013 | 5 to MLB | WAR 6.5 | High WAR 8.3, 1B Cody Bellinger, 4th rd
2014 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.9) | High WAR 0.3, LHP Caleb Ferguson, 38th rd
2015 | 2 to MLB | WAR 2.7 | High WAR 3.3, RHP Walker Buehler, 1st rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date, both individual and total, is from 2006 with LHP Clayton Kershaw (1st round, 64.6 WAR)  providing the most bang for the buck. The only other signed player from that draft class to make it to the bigs was RHP Bryan Morris (1st round, 2.5 WAR) but Morris was traded to Pittsburgh in a three-team, six-player July 2008 trade prior to making his MLB debut. Kershaw has been with the Dodgers for his entire career (11 seasons to date) and has received seven All-Star nods, one National League MVP (2014) and one NL Gold Glove (2011). In addition, Kershaw has been awarded the NL Cy Young Award three times (2011, 2013, 2014).

2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 32 Signed | 13 Pitchers | 19 Position Players
25 College | 25 Signed | 10 Pitchers | 15 Position Players
8 JC/CC | 5 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 4 Position Players
7 HS/NS | 2 Signed | 2 Pitchers | 0 Position Players

Notable: The Dodgers failed to sign three of their top 16 picks, most notably first round pick Mississippi HS RHP J.T. Ginn.

PITCHERS
Of the 13 pitchers signed (8 RHP, 5 LHP), all but two (2nd round college right-hander Michael Grove and junior college lefty Julian Smith, 15th round) logged at least some playing time. Five of these pitchers were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (all to Full Season A). Three of the pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Dodgers. (Another 2018 draft pick, 2nd rounder RHP Josiah Gray who was obtained from the Reds in a December 2018 trade, also appears on the Dodgers Top 30 prospect list.) One pitcher, 20th round RHP Caleb Sampen, was traded to the Rays in January 2019.

Top Prospects

RHP Michael Grove, 2nd round, West Virginia University, DNP

LHP John Rooney, 3rd round, Hofstra University, A
20 IP | 8 G / 8 GS | 1.80 ERA | 1.100 WHIP | 8 BB : 21 K

RHP Braydon Fisher, 4th round, Clear Falls HS (TX), Rk
22 IP | 11 G / 9 GS | 2.05 ERA | 1.364 WHIP | 9 BB : 19 K

Noteworthy Debut

LHP Austin Drury, 34th round, University of North Florida, A
29.2 IP | 17 G / 0 GS | 1.21 ERA | 0.809 WHIP | 6 BB : 28 K

In total, the Dodgers 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.65 ERA and a 1.306 WHIP over 285.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All 19 position players signed (2 1B, 2 2B, 3B, SS, 10 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. Seven of the players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (all to Full Season A). None of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Dodgers.

Noteworthy Debut

OF Drew Avans (L/L), 33rd round, Southeastern Louisiana University, A
60 G | .284/.386/.502/.888 | 35 BB : 43 K | 20 SB : 5 CS | 6 2B / 5 3B / 10 HR | 51 RBI

OF Matt Cogen (L/R), 30th round, Belmont University, A
56 G | .313/.403/.550/.953 | 29 BB : 39 K | 11 2B / 6 3B / 9 HR | 53 RBI
(Cogen only played in two games at Full Season A)

1B Dillon Paulson (L/L), 13th round, University of Southern California, Rk
58 G | .272/.385/.522/.908 | 42 BB : 51 K | 20 2B / 3 3B / 10 HR | 61 RBI
(Paulson led the entire 2018 Draft class in RBI)

In total, the Dodgers 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .275/.367/.433/.800 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies

COMING NEXT
San Diego Padres

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Colorado Rockies

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

COLORADO ROCKIES

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 952 | Signed 592 | Pitchers Signed 319 | Position Players Signed 273
Total WAR 327.8
Total Players to MLB 88

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 8 to MLB | WAR 68.9 | High WAR 44.8, 3B Matt Holliday, 7th rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 15.8 | High WAR 11.2, RHP Jason Jennings, 1st rd
2000 | 9 to MLB | WAR 23.0 | High WAR 15.6, SS Clint Barmes, 10th rd
2001 | 2 to MLB | WAR 2.8 | High WAR 1.9, SS Jayson Nix, 1st rd
2002 | 7 to MLB | WAR 11.2 | High WAR 9.6, LHP Jeff Francis, 1st rd
2003 | 3 to MLB | WAR 5.2 | High WAR 3.0, 3B Ian Stewart, 1st rd
2004 | 12 to MLB | WAR 44.2 | High WAR 17.9, OF Dexter Fowler, 14th rd
2005 | 2 to MLB | WAR 45.4 | High WAR 44.1, SS Troy Tulowitzski, 1st rd
2006 | 3 to MLB | WAR 6.4 | High WAR 5.6, RHP Will Harris, 9th rd
2007 | 3 to MLB | WAR (1.7) | High WAR 2.7, LHP Matt Reynolds, 20th rd
2008 | 3 to MLB | WAR 15.0 | High WAR 16.1, OF Charlie Blackmon, 2nd rd
2009 | 6 to MLB | WAR 41.4 | High WAR 33.1, 3B Nolan Arenado, 2nd rd
2010 | 6 to MLB | WAR 12.4 | High WAR 12.6, OF Corey Dickerson, 8th rd
2011 | 4 to MLB | WAR 19.6 | High WAR 11.4, SS Trevor Story, 1st rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 1.4 | High WAR 2.5, RHP Scott Oberg, 15th rd
2013 | 6 to MLB | WAR 4.6 | High WAR 6.6, RHP Jon Gray, 1st rd
2014 | 4 to MLB | WAR 11.9 | High WAR 11.5, LHP Kyle Freeland, 1st rd
2015 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.3 | High WAR 0.3, SS Garrett Hampson, 3rd rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date, both individual and total, is from 1998 with OF Matt Holliday leading the way. Holliday started his MLB career with the Rockies (2004 through 2008) before being traded to Oakland for OF Carlos GonzalezRHP Huston Street and LHP Greg Smith. The value that the Rockies received in that trade (mostly due to Gonzalez's long tenure with the Rockies) worked out to be fairly equivalent to their loss of Holliday. Holliday was a three-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger during his time with the Rockies. After only a short time with Oakland, Holliday was traded to the Cardinals where he continued to have success for several years. Most recently Holliday re-signed with the Rockies as a free agent in July 2018. He is currently a free agent.

After Holliday, the two most productive players from the Rockies 1998 Draft class are OF Juan Pierre (13th round, 17.1 WAR) and OF Jody Gerut (2nd round, 7.2 WAR). Gerut never played for the Rockies, having been traded to the Indians in 2001, but Pierre played for Colorado from 2000 through 2002 before being traded to the Marlins.

Nipping at Holliday's heels for high individual WAR is SS Troy Tulowitski (1st round, 2005, 44.1 WAR). Tulowitzki played for the Rockies for 10 seasons prior to his July 2015 trade to the Blue Jays. He was a five-time All-Star, earning two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers during his time with Colorado.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 33 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 15 Position Players
31 College | 31 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 13 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
8 HS/NS | 1 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 1 Position Player

Notable: The Rockies received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A). They forfeited their second round pick for signing free agent RHP Wade Davis, but that was offset by a second round compensation pick awarded to them for losing free agent RHP Greg Holland to the Cardinals. Colorado signed all of their top 33 picks. The first miss was 33rd round Florida HS RHP Nick Pogue.

PITCHERS
Of the 18 pitchers signed (10 RHP, 8 LHP), all but two (college right-handers Mitchell Kilkenny, 2nd round and Andrew Quezada, 7th round) logged at least some playing time. None of these players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. One player debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Rockies, in the Top 10.

Top Prospects

🔟 LHP Ryan Rolison, 1st round, University of Mississippi, Rk
29 IP | 9 G / 9 GS | 1.86 ERA | 0.793 WHIP | 8 BB : 34 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Ryan Feltner, 4th round, The Ohio State University, Rk
30.2 IP | 9 G / 9 GS | 0.88 ERA | 0.652 WHIP | 4 BB : 39 K

In total, the Rockies 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.70 ERA and a 1.322 WHIP over 435.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All but one the 15 position players signed (1B, 4 2B, 2 3B, SS, 5 OF, 2 C) logged at least some playing time, with the exception being 25th round college 2B Robbie Metz. None of the players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. Two of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Rockies, one as a Top 10 prospect.

Top Prospects

🔟 1B Grant Lavigne (L/R), 1st round, Bedford HS (NH), Rk
59 G | .350/.477/.519/.996 | 45 BB : 40 K

SS Terrin Vavra (L/R), 3rd round, University of Minnesota, SSA
44 G | .302/.396/.467/.863 | 26 BB : 40 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

There were actually quite a few noteworthy debuts, but my enthusiasm is somewhat tempered by the lack of promotion of these college players.

OF Niko Decolati (R/R), 6th round, Loyola Marymount University, Rk
69 G | .327/.414/.532/.947 | 34 BB : 56 K | 15 2B / 3 3B / 11 HR | 56 RBI

2B Coco Montes (R/R), 15th round, University of South Florida, Rk
69 G | .333/.413/.513/.926 | 35 BB : 69 K | 18 2B / 3 3B / 8 HR | 42 RBI

In total, the Rockies 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .291/.371/.479/.850 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks

COMING NEXT
Los Angeles Dodgers

Monday, January 21, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Arizona Diamondbacks

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 954 | Signed 656 | Pitchers Signed 315 | Position Players Signed 341
Total WAR 400.2
Total Players to MLB 104

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 6 to MLB | WAR 12.6 | High WAR 8.1, LHP Javier Lopez, 4th rd
1999 | 5 to MLB | WAR 23.8 | High WAR 16.8, 1B Lyle Overbay, 18th rd
2000 | 8 to MLB | WAR 30.9 | High WAR 31.0, RHP Brandon Webb, 8th rd
2001 | 6 to MLB | WAR 32.3 | High WAR 17.5, 2B Dan Uggla, 11th rd
2002 | 5 to MLB | WAR 5.3 | High WAR 4.5, C Chris Snyder, 2nd rd
2003 | 4 to MLB | WAR 12.9 | High WAR 10.4, OF Carlos Quentin, 1st rd
2004 | 6 to MLB | WAR 25.2 | High WAR 17.1, SS Stephen Drew, 1st rd
2005 | 4 to MLB | WAR 40.3 | High WAR 35.0, SS Justin Upton, 1st rd
2006 | 9 to MLB | WAR 63.6 | High WAR 54.5, RHP Max Scherzer, 1st rd
2007 | 9 to MLB | WAR 15.0 | High WAR 7.1, RHP Josh Collmenter, 15th rd
2008 | 6 to MLB | WAR 18.5 | High WAR 9.2, LHP Wade Miley, 1st rd
2009 | 12 to MLB | WAR 70.5 | High WAR 40.1, 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 8th rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 14.3 | High WAR 17.4, OF Adam Eaton, 19th rd
2011 | 5 to MLB | WAR 21.5 | High WAR 14.2, RHP Trevor Bauer, 1st rd
2012 | 3 to MLB | WAR 7.5 | High WAR 6.4, 3B Jake Lamb, 6th rd
2013 | 7 to MLB | WAR 3.1 | High WAR 3.6, RHP Brad Keller, 8th rd
2014 | 2 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 0.3, RHP Touki Toussaint, 1st rd
2015 | 2 to MLB | WAR 2.7 | High WAR 2.9, SS Dansby Swanson, 1st rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of RHP Max Scherzer (2006, 1st round, 54.5 WAR). Scherzer appeared in 46 games for the D'Backs between 2008 and 2009 (2.7 WAR) before being included in a three-team trade in December 2009 that sent Scherzer to the Tigers. The Diamondbacks ended up with a half season of RHP Edwin Jackson (0.2 WAR) and three and a half seasons of RHP Ian Kennedy (8.9 WAR) when all was said and done. Factoring in the players received when Jackson and Kennedy were traded doesn't alter the landscape very much and the trade looks very, very lopsided in retrospect. Scherzer broke through in a big way in 2013, winning the American League Cy Young Award that year. He has been named to the All-Star team every year from 2013 through 2018 and won two additional Cy Young Awards in 2016 and 2017 for the Nationals.

The high total WAR was in 2009, thanks in large part to the success of 1B Paul Goldscmidt (2009, 8th round, 40.1 WAR). Goldschmidt made his debut for Arizona in 2011 and played in eight seasons for the Diamondbacks prior to his December 2018 trade to the Cardinals. Goldschmidt was an All-Star from 2013 through 2018 and earned four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves for the D'Backs. 11 other players from that 2009 Draft Class made it to the bigs with the second most productive player being OF A. J. Pollock (1st round, 20.0 WAR). Pollock has spent his entire career to date with Arizona and is currently a free agent.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 29 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 11 Position Players
31 College | 26 Signed | 17 Pitchers | 9 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 0 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 0 Position Players
8 HS/NS | 3 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 2 Position Players

Notable: The Diamondbacks received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A). Arizona failed to sign their top pick (California HS SS Matt McLain), but signed the next 23 picks.

PITCHERS
Of the 18 pitchers signed (17 RHP, 1 LHP), all but one (college lefty Tyler Holton, 9th round) logged at least some playing time. Only one player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A). Three of the pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Diamondbacks.

Top Prospects

RHP Jackson Goddard, 3rd round, University of Kansas, SSA
29 IP | 14 G / 13 GS | 4.03 ERA | 1.069 WHIP | 12 BB : 27 K

RHP Matt Mercer, 5th round, University of Oregon, SSA
29 IP | 13 G / 13 GS | 3.10 ERA | 0.966 WHIP | 7 BB : 38 K

RHP Levi Kelly, 8th round, IMG Academy (FL), Rk
6 IP | 4 G / 4 GS | 0.00 ERA | 0.833 WHIP | 2 BB : 6 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Kyler Stout, 18th round, Oral Roberts University, A
32.1 IP | 23 G / 0 GS | 2.23 ERA | 1.206 WHIP | 17 BB : 53 K | 6 Saves

In total, the Diamondbacks 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.09 ERA and a 1.230 WHIP over 422 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All 11 position players signed (2 1B, 2 2B, 3B, 2 SS, 2 OF, 2 C) logged at least some playing time. None of the players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. Three of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Diamondbacks, two as Top 10 prospects.

Top Prospects

🔟 OF Jake McCarthy (L/L), 1st round, University of Virginia, SSA
58 G | .288/.375/.443/.818 | 23 BB : 41 K | 21 SB : 8 CS | 17 2B / 4 3B / 3 HR

🔟 OF Alek Thomas (L/L), 2nd round, Mount Carmel HS (IL), Rk
56 G | .333/.395/.463/.858 | 24 BB : 37 K | 12 SB : 5 CS | 14 2B / 6 3B / 2 HR

SS Blaze Alexander (R/R), 11th round, IMG Academy (FL), Rk
55 G | .329/.417/.538/.955 | 31 BB : 52 K | 10 SB : 3 CS | 19 2B / 5 3B / 5 HR

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

1B Zack Shannon (R/R), 15th round, Delta State University, Rk
54 G | .354/.439/.677/1.116 | 28 BB : 43 K | 17 2B / 3B / 14 HR | 55 RBI

In total, the Diamondbacks 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .288/.374/.440/.815 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

COMING NEXT
Colorado Rockies

Saturday, January 19, 2019

NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

In conjunction with the MLB Draft Deep Dive series that I've been rolling out over the last couple of weeks (see links below), the following is a down and dirty summary of the early 2018 draft results for the NL Central.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL 2018 DRAFT SUMMARY

PITCHING

Pitcher Breakdown
STL: 18 Signed | 17 C | 1 JC/CC | 14 RHP | 4 LHP
CIN: 17 Signed | 14 C | 3 HS | 15 RHP | 2 LHP
PIT: 16 Signed | 14 C | 2 HS | 13 RHP | 3 LHP
CHC: 15 Signed | 12 C | 2 JC/CC | 1 HS | 12 RHP | 3 LHP
MIL: 13 Signed | 7 C | 2 JC/CC | 4 HS | 9 RHP | 4 LHP

Cumulative Stats for 2018 Draft Class (Pitchers)
CHC: 3.34 ERA | 1.282 WHIP | 250.1 IP | 13 Active Pitchers
MIL: 3.86 ERA | 1.313 WHIP | 330.2 IP | 12 Active Pitchers
STL: 4.03 ERA | 1.304 WHIP | 618.1 IP | 17 Active Pitchers
PIT: 4.22 ERA | 1.348 WHIP | 474 IP | 16 Active Pitchers
CIN: 4.73 ERA | 1.396 WHIP | 467.2 IP | 16 Active Pitchers

Position Player Breakdown
STL: 20 Signed | 17 C | 3 HS | 2 1B | 4 2B | 3 3B | 2 SS | 5 OF | 4 C
CHC: 17 Signed | 12 C | 1 JC/CC | 4 HS | 1B | 2 2B | 2 3B | 3 SS | 9 OF
PIT: 17 Signed | 16 C | 1 HS | 2 1B | 2 2B | 3B | 2 SS | 7 OF | 3 C
CIN: 12 Signed | 7 C | 2 JC/CC | 3 HS | 1B | 3B | SS | 5 OF | 4 C
MIL: 9 Signed | 2 C | 1 JC/CC | 6 HS | 2 SS | 4 OF | 3 C

Cumulative Stats for 2018 Draft Class (Position Players)
STL: .260/.353/.392/.745 | 19 Active Players
CIN: .258/.351/.396/.747 | 12 Active Players
PIT: .255/.354/.389/.743 | 17 Active Players
CHC: .255/.338/.353/.690 | 17 Active Players
MIL: .254/.360/.369/.729 | 9 Active Players

MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects
MIL: 5 Total (HS RHP, JC/CC LHP, HS SS*, HS OF*, HS OF)
STL: 4 Total (C RHP*, C LHP, C 1B, HS 3B*)
CIN: 3 Total (HS RHP, C 3B*, HS OF*)
CHC: 3 Total (C SS*, 2 HS OF)
PIT: 2 Total (HS RHP, C OF*)

*Top 10

NL CENTRAL DRAFT CLASS NOTES: PITCHERS

The Cubs pitchers may have the best cumulative pitching stats, but they only had two pitchers exceed 30 innings and none of them were promoted above Short Season A so it's hard to get a good handle on the group. And it's really difficult to get too excited about the Reds pitching class as they not only put up lackluster numbers, but all but one of them put up those numbers for rookie league teams. In addition, the Reds traded one of their best pitching prospects (RHP Josiah Gray) to Los Angeles. The Cardinal's group of pitchers deserves an incomplete for their inaugural season with prospect RHP Griffin Roberts pitching only 9.2 innings (and now serving a 50-game suspension) and LHP Steven Gingery, another highly ranked prospect, sitting out the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. The Brewers 2018 Draft pitching class skews young and raw, so it will take time to see how the high school and juco players from the class develop, but in the meantime, Milwaukee was fairly aggressive in promoting some of their higher round college players and most responded nicely. There could be a nice payoff from one or two of the college players as they wait for the younger pitchers to mature. On the other side of the coin, the Pirates 2018 pitching class is college-heavy. Although their cumulative stats weren't the best of this division, there were a number of pitchers who outperformed the rest of the group with excellent seasons. I like the depth of this group and think that some of these college pitchers will move quickly through the Pirates system.

NL CENTRAL DRAFT CLASS NOTES: POSITION PLAYERS

The Brewers went young on their position players as well. Of the nine players signed, only two are college players. Those two college players had very good freshman seasons and, as would be expected, the younger players were a mixed bag. This class is very much a high risk/high reward proposition, particularly considering that two of these high school prospects are on the Brewers top 10 prospect list and expectations will be high. The Reds have a good mix of younger and older players and, overall, they performed well. However, all but two of the players did not appear above rookie level so it is going to be hard to judge some of those performances until the players are challenged to a higher level of play. However, the Reds top prospect from this class, college 3B Jonathan India (5th overall pick), did get his feet wet in Full Season A. The Cubs were much more college-heavy with their 2018 picks, but they also had a couple of high round high school picks. The top two picks in the class played well but in a very limited number of games. Overall, the class looks to be top heavy and not terribly deep (but only in terms of early results). The Pirates class only included one high school player way down in the 30th round. Top round picks were challenged to higher levels with mixed results, but the experience should prove to be valuable in their development. As a whole, the class performed as would be expected considering their age and level of play. St. Louis was very aggressive in promoting their players, including the promotion of their top 2018 pick, HS 3B Nolan Gorman. The Cardinals class exhibited a lot of depth with several players outperforming expectations.

Chicago Cubs Draft Review
Cincinnati Reds Draft Review
Milwaukee Brewers Draft Review
Pittsburgh Pirates Draft Review
St. Louis Cardinals Draft Review

Friday, January 18, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: St. Louis Cardinals

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 939 | Signed 742 | Pitchers Signed 385 | Position Players Signed 357
Total WAR 502.4
Total Players to MLB 122

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 7 to MLB | WAR 66.6 | High WAR 44.9, OF J.D. Drew, 1st rd
1999 | 8 to MLB | WAR 133.6 | High WAR 100.0, 3B Albert Pujols, 13th rd
2000 | 5 to MLB | WAR 39.4 | High WAR 38.9, C Yadier Molina, 4th rd
2001 | 6 to MLB | WAR 33.0 | High WAR 35.0, RHP Dan Harren, 2nd rd
2002 | 4 to MLB | WAR 3.3 | High WAR 2.4, RHP Kyle McClellan, 25th rd
2003 | 7 to MLB | WAR 29.1 | High WAR 15.1, SS Brendan Ryan, 7th rd
2004 | 4 to MLB | WAR (2.2) | High WAR 0.4, 2B Jarrett Hoffpauir, 6th rd
2005 | 6 to MLB | WAR 28.3 | High WAR 19.8, OF Colby Rasmus, 1st rd
2006 | 11 to MLB | WAR 50.5 | High WAR 14.0, OF John Jay, 2nd rd
2007 | 11 to MLB | WAR (3.0) | High WAR 1.9, 3B Daniel Descalso, 3rd rd
2008 | 9 to MLB | WAR 20.9 | High WAR 14.7, RHP Lance Lynn, 1st rd
2009 | 10 to MLB | WAR 51.3 | High WAR 25.9, 3B Matt Carpenter, 13th rd
2010 | 9 to MLB | WAR 3.7 | High WAR 3.3, SS Greg Garcia, 7th rd
2011 | 6 to MLB | WAR 14.8 | High WAR 10.9, 2B Kolton Wong, 1st rd
2012 | 8 to MLB | WAR 16.8 | High WAR 7.3, 3B Stephen Piscotty, 1st rd
2013 | 3 to MLB | WAR 2.9 | High WAR 2.4, LHP Marco Gonzalez, 1st rd
2014 | 4 to MLB | WAR 2.2 | High WAR 2.3, RHP Jack Flaherty, 1st rd
2015 | 3 to MLB | WAR 10.7 | High WAR 6.5, 3B Paul DeJong, 4th rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.5 | High WAR 0.5, RHP Dakota Hudson, 1st rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date (BY FAR!!) is that of 1B/DH Albert Pujols (1999, 13th round, 100.0 WAR) which, in turn, drives the high total WAR for 1999 as well. Seven other players signed by the Cards that year made it to the bigs, but only OF Coco Crisp (7th round, 28.5 WAR) made a really significant contribution to the total WAR for that year's draft class. Crisp, however, never played for the Cardinals, having been dealt to Cleveland in 2002 in return for one final season of LHP Chuck Finley in St. Louis. Five of the other six played for St. Louis for varying amounts of time with OF Chris Duncan (1st round, 2.8 WAR) the only of the non-Pujols seven to earn a World Series ring with the Cardinals in 2006. But obviously Pujols was the biggest contributor from that draft class and spent his most productive years with the Cardinals, compiling a 86.6 WAR with that team before signing with the Angels as a free agent in December 2011. Named National League Rookie of the Year in 2001, Pujols went on to make nine All-Star appearances as a Cardinal as well as earning six Silver Sluggers, two Gold Gloves and World Series rings in 2006 and 2011. He was also named National League MVP in 2005, 2008 and 2009. Not bad for a 13th rounder.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 38 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 20 Position Players
34 College | 34 Signed | 17 Pitchers | 17 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 0 Position Players
5 HS/NS | 3 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 3 Position Players

Notable: The Cardinals received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A). They also forfeited their second round pick as a result of signing free agent RHP Greg Holland, but received a supplemental second round pick as compensation for losing free agent RHP Lance Lynn to the Twins. St. Louis signed all of their first 29 picks and 38 of 41 picks. However, 37th round pick college C Christian Caudle was reported to have signed, but was immediately released when his physical showed heart irregularities.

PITCHERS
Of the 18 pitchers signed (14 RHP, 4 LHP), all but one (college lefty Steven Gingery) logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (although that consisted of only one inning at Advanced A) and two debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Cardinals, one as a Top 10 prospect. Unfortunately, that Top 10 prospect will be sitting out 50 games in 2019 (see below). Three of the Cardinal's lower round picks were released in December (RHP Troy Montemayor, 25th round; RHP Ty Cohen, 31st round; and RHP Chris Rivera, 33rd round).

Top Prospects

🔟 RHP Griffin Roberts, 1st round, Wake Forest University, A+
9.2 IP | 8 G / 2 GS | 5.59 ERA | 1.034 | 4 BB : 13 K
(Suspended 50 games for failing a second test for a drug of abuse)

LHP Steven Gingery, 4th round, Texas Tech, DNP
Gingery had Tommy John surgery in March 2018

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Michael Baird, 23rd round, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, SSA
44.2 IP | 12 G / 4 GS | 1.61 ERA | 0.739 WHIP | 5 BB : 44 K

In total, the Cardinals 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.03 ERA and a 1.304 WHIP over 618.1 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
With the exception of Caudle (see above), all remaining 19 position players signed (2 1B, 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 SS, 5 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. Six players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (four to Full Season A and two to Advanced A). Two of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Cardinals, one as a Top 10 prospect.

Top Prospects

🔟 3B Nolan Gorman (L/R), 1st round, Sandra Day O'Connor HS (AZ), A
63 G | .291/.380/.570/.949 | 34 BB : 76 K | 13 2B / 3B / 17 HR
(Gorman led the entire 2018 Draft class in home runs)

1B Luken Baker (R/R), 2nd round, Texas Christian University, A
45 G | .319/.386/.460/.846 | 19 BB : 35 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

OF Justin Toerner (L/L), 28th round, California State University Northridge, A+
67 G | .312/.410/.385/.795 | 34 BB : 45 K

In total, the Cardinals 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .260/.353/.392/.745 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates

COMING NEXT
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

Thursday, January 17, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Pirates

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 937 | Signed 553 | Pitchers Signed 287 | Position Players Signed 266
Total WAR 297.9
Total Players to MLB 86

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.2 | High WAR 7.0, LHP Joe Beimel, 18th rd
1999 | 3 to MLB | WAR 8.5 | High WAR 8.8, C Ryan Doumit, 2nd rd
2000 | 5 to MLB | WAR 68.1 | High WAR 35.6, 3B Jose Bautista, 20th rd
2001 | 8 to MLB | WAR 28.3 | High WAR 12.3, LHP Zach Duke, 20th rd
2002 | 6 to MLB | WAR 10.8 | High WAR 6.8, OF Nyjer Morgan, 33rd rd
2003 | 6 to MLB | WAR 17.4 | High WAR 11.9, LHP Paul Maholm, 1st rd
2004 | 3 to MLB | WAR 19.8 | High WAR 20.5, C Neil Walker, 1st rd
2005 | 3 to MLB | WAR 51.3 | High WAR 42.0, OF Andrew McCutchen, 1st rd
2006 | 6 to MLB | WAR 7.6 | High WAR 8.2, RHP Jared Hughes, 4th rd
2007 | 4 to MLB | WAR 12.4 | High WAR 11.7, LHP Tony Watson, 9th rd
2008 | 6 to MLB | WAR 22.2 | High WAR 7.5, SS Jordy Mercer, 3rd rd
2009 | 5 to MLB | WAR 5.7 | High WAR 6.6, 2B Brock Holt, 9th rd
2010 | 4 to MLB | WAR 7.1 | High WAR 7.8, RHP Jameson Taillon, 1st rd
2011 | 6 to MLB | WAR 18.8 | High WAR 17.4, RHP Gerrit Cole, 1st rd
2012 | 3 to MLB | WAR 1.1 | High WAR 0.6, SS Max Moroff, 16th rd
2013 | 6 to MLB | WAR 10.3 | High WAR 4.9, SS Adam Frazier, 6th rd
2014 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.3) | High WAR (0.1), RHP Alex McRae, 10th rd
2015 | 5 to MLB | WAR (1.4) | High WAR 0.3, LHP Daniel Zamora, 40th rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of OF Andrew McCutchen (2005, 1st round, 42.0 WAR), but the high total WAR is from 2000, a draft which featured OF/3B Jose Bautista (35.6 WAR, 20th round), RHP Chris Young (17.3 WAR, 3rd round), OF Nate McLouth (6.4 WAR, 25th round), LHP Sean Burnett (5.8 WAR, 1st round) and RHP Ian Snell (3.0 WAR, 26th round). Bautista was lost to the Orioles in the 2003 Rule 5 Draft, but eventually ended up being traded back to the Pirates (after enduring three more moves in the following few months) in July 2004. Unfortunately, Bautista wasn't All-Star Bautista until he headed to Toronto a few seasons later. Chris Young never played for the Pirates, having been traded to the Expos for RHP Matt Herges in December 2002 (Herges was released in March 2003 without throwing a pitch for the Pirates). McLouth had the most success of the group in a Pirates uniform, earning an All-Star nod and a Gold Glove in the fourth of his five seasons with the Pirates (5.1 WAR in 515 games), but the remaining trio (Bautista, Snell and Burnett) combined for a whopping 1.8 WAR in their limited time with the Bucs. McCutchen, however, definitely earned his keep in nine seasons with the Pirates, appearing in five All-Star games, collecting one Gold Glove and four Silver Sluggers and being named the National League MVP in 2013. McCutchen was traded to the Giants in January 2018 and signed with the Phillies as a free agent in December 2018.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 33 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 17 Position Players
31 College | 30 Signed | 14 Pitchers | 16 Position Players
0 JC/CC | 0 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 0 Position Players
10 HS/NS | 3 Signed | 2 Pitchers | 1 Position Player

Notable: The Pirates received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A), but failed to sign that pick (HS RHP Gunnar Hoglund).  They did, however, sign all remaining picks in the first 21 rounds.

PITCHERS
Of the 16 pitchers signed (13 RHP, 3 LHP), all logged at least some playing time. Two players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A) and one debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Pirates.

Top Prospects

RHP Braxton Ashcraft, 2nd round, Robinson HS (TX), Rk
17.2 IP | 5 G / 5 GS | 4.58 ERA | 1.189 WHIP | 5 BB : 12 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Logan Stoelke, 9th round, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, A
22.2 IP | 20 G / 0 GS | 1.59 ERA | 0.750 WHIP | 9 BB : 35 K | 7 Saves

In total, the Pirates 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.22 ERA and a 1.348 WHIP over 474 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 17 position players signed (2 1B, 2 2B, 3B, 2 SS, 7 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. Five players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (three to Full Season A and two to Advanced A). One of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Pirates as a Top 10 prospect.

Top Prospects

🔟 OF Travis Swaggerty (L/L), 1st round, University of South Alabama, A
52 G | .239/.322/.383/.705 | 22 BB : 58 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

OF Danny Amaral (R/R), 14th round, UCLA, SSA
58 G | .244/.329/.382/.712 | 23 BB : 46 K | 25 SB : 6 CS

There were several noteworthy debuts by college players at the rookie level as well, but Amaral played at a slightly higher level and led the entire 2018 draft class in stolen bases.

In total, the Pirates 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .255/.354/.389/.743 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers

COMING NEXT
St. Louis Cardinals

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Milwaukee Brewers

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 938 | Signed 616 | Pitchers Signed 332 | Position Players Signed 284
Total WAR 356
Total Players to MLB 84

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 2 to MLB | WAR 9.5 | High WAR 9.7, SS Bill Hall, 6th rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 23.4 | High WAR 23.3, RHP Ben Sheets, 1st rd
2000 | 2 to MLB | WAR 14.6 | High WAR 14.4, OF Corey Hart, 11th rd
2001 | 6 to MLB | WAR 26.4 | High WAR 28.4, SS J.J. Hardy, 2nd rd
2002 | 6 to MLB | WAR 32.0 | High WAR 23.6, 1B Prince Fielder, 1st rd
2003 | 6 to MLB | WAR 18.1 | High WAR 11.8, 2B Rickie Weeks, 1st rd
2004 | 5 to MLB | WAR 57.3 | High WAR 34.0, OF Lorenzo Cain, 17th rd
2005 | 6 to MLB | WAR 68.8 | High WAR 46.4, 3B Ryan Braun, 1st rd
2006 | 3 to MLB | WAR 7.2 | High WAR 7.8, RHP Jeremy Jeffress, 1st rd
2007 | 7 to MLB | WAR 19.8 | High WAR 19.1, C Jonathan Lucroy, 3rd rd
2008 | 6 to MLB | WAR 24.2 | High WAR 15.1, 3B Brett Lawrie, 1st rd
2009 | 8 to MLB | WAR 32.5 | High WAR 12.1, OF Khris Davis, 7th rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 7.4 | High WAR 4.1, RHP Jimmy Nelson, 2nd rd
2011 | 7 to MLB | WAR 1.3 | High WAR 1.1, RHP Taylor Jungman, 1st rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.1 | High WAR 9.2, OF Mitch Haniger, 1st rd
2013 | 3 to MLB | WAR (0.2) | High WAR 0.1, 1B Garrett Cooper, 6th rd
2014 | 1 to MLB | WAR 1.0 | High WAR 1.0, RHP Brandon Woodruff, 11th rd
2015 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR (0.1), RHP Eric Hanhold, 6th rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.7 | High WAR 0.7, RHP Corbin Burnes, 4th rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of OF Ryan Braun (2005, 1st round, 46.4 WAR) and the high total WAR is also from 2005. Braun has spent his entire career with the Brewers (12 seasons to date), appearing in six All-Star games and earning five Silver Sluggers, the National League Rookie of the Year in 2007 and the National League MVP in 2011. The only other big impact player signed in the Brewers 2005 Draft class is OF Michael Brantley (7th round, 22.7 WAR). Brantley was traded to Cleveland (along with three other players) as the PTBNL in a July 2008 deal that sent LHP C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers. Sabathia was a rental player who ultimately was not able to help the Brewers in their postseason efforts (the Brewers lost the NLDS to the Phillies 3-1). Since the other players in that trade had minimal or no impact in the majors, that trade can be seen as a very good half season of pitching for the Brewers up against all or parts of 10 seasons, three All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger for Cleveland. If the Brewers had gone deep into the postseason in 2008, they would likely have taken that deal every time ... but they didn't. Brantley signed with the Astros as a free agent in December 2018.

2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 22 Signed | 13 Pitchers | 9 Position Players
11 College | 9 Signed | 7 Pitchers | 2 Position Players
7 JC/CC | 3 Signed | 2 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
22 HS/NS | 10 Signed | 4 Pitchers | 6 Position Players

Notable: The Brewers received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round B) and forfeited one pick (third round) for signing free agent OF Lorenzo Cain. They signed their top 10 picks, but only signed 5 of their next 10. The highest unsigned pick was 11th round college RHP Davis Daniel.

PITCHERS
Of the 13 pitchers signed (9 RHP, 4 LHP), all but one (college right-hander Drew Rasmussen, 6th round) logged at least some playing time. Four players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (all to Full Season A) and two of them debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Brewers.

Top Prospects

LHP Aaron Ashby, 4th round, Crowder College (CC), A
57.2 IP | 13 G / 10 GS | 3.59 ERA | 1.301 WHIP | 17 BB : 66 K

RHP Justin Jarvis, 5th round, Lake Norman HS (NC), Rk
19 IP | 10 G / 3 GS | 6.63 ERA | 1.474 WHIP | 4 BB : 18 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP J.T. Hintzen, 10th round, Florida Southern College, A
39.2 IP | 17 G / 1 GS | 2.95 ERA | 1.109 WHIP | 11 BB : 48 K

In total, the Brewers 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.86 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP over 330.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 9 position players signed (2 SS, 4 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A). Three of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Brewers, two as Top 10 prospects.

Top Prospects

🔟 SS Brice Turang (L/R), 1st round, Santiago HS (CA), Rk
42 G | .283/.396/.352/.748 | 31 BB : 34 K | 14 SB : 2 CS

🔟 OF Joe Gray (R/R), 2nd round, Hattiesburg HS (MS), Rk
24 G | .182/.347/.325/.672 | 18 BB : 25 K

OF Micah Bello (R/R), 2nd round, Hilo HS (HI), Rk
39 G | .240/.324/.325/.648 | 18 BB : 41 K | 10 SB : 1 CS

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

C David Fry (R/R), 7th round, Northwestern State University of Louisiana, A
63 G | .312/.400/.550/.950 | 29 BB : 45 K | 15 2B / 2 3B / 12 HR | 57 RBI

In total, the Brewers 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .254/.360/.369/.729 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds

COMING NEXT
Pittsburgh Pirates

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Cincinnati Reds

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

CINCINNATI REDS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 951 | Signed 599 | Pitchers Signed 328 | Position Players Signed 271
Total WAR 289.6
Total Players to MLB 83

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 7 to MLB | WAR 45.4 | High WAR 17.4, OF Adam Dunn, 2nd rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 4.7 | High WAR 4.4, 1B Ben Broussard, 2nd rd
2000 | 4 to MLB | WAR (0.6) | High WAR 0.7, RHP Dustin Moseley, 1st rd
2001 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2002 | 2 to MLB | WAR 69.3 | High WAR 58.8, C Joey Votto, 2nd rd
2003 | 3 to MLB | WAR 3.0 | High WAR 3.4, OF Chris Dickerson, 16th rd
2004 | 4 to MLB | WAR 3.6 | High WAR 4.0, RHP Homer Bailey, 1st rd
2005 | 7 to MLB | WAR 31.0 | High WAR 18.9, OF Jay Bruce, 1st rd
2006 | 9 to MLB | WAR 36.8 | High WAR 24.1, 2B Justin Turner, 7th rd
2007 | 7 to MLB | WAR 43.6 | High WAR 23.8, 3B Todd Frazier, 1st rd
2008 | 5 to MLB | WAR 7.4 | High WAR 9.1, 1B Yonder Alonso, 1st rd
2009 | 6 to MLB | WAR 30.9 | High WAR 15.6, RHP Mike Leake, 1st rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.6 | High WAR 13.5, C Yasmani Grandal, 1st rd
2011 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.6) | High WAR 2.6, LHP Tony Cingrani, 3rd rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.9) | High WAR 0.4, OF Jesse Winker, 1st rd
2013 | 7 to MLB | WAR 4.2 | High WAR 3.4, RHP Michael Lorenzon, 1st rd
2014 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.3 | High WAR 0.3, SS Alex Blandino, 1st rd
2015 | 2 to MLB | WAR (1.1) | High WAR (0.1), SS Blake Trahan, 3rd rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of 1B Joey Votto (2002, 2nd round, 58.8 WAR) and the high total WAR is also from 2002. Votto has spent his entire career with the Reds (12 seasons to date), appearing in six All-Star games and earning the National League MVP in 2010 and a Gold Glove in 2011. The only other signed player from the Reds 2002 Draft class to appear in the big leagues is OF Chris Donorfia (19th round, 10.5 WAR). Donorfia played two seasons for the Reds before being traded to Oakland (April 2007) in a very lopsided trade which gave the Reds a total of 19.2 innings of MLB pitching and a -0.1 WAR.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 29 Signed | 17 Pitchers | 12 Position Players
23 College | 21 Signed | 14 Pitchers | 7 Position Players
3 JC/CC | 2 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 2 Position Players
15 HS/NS | 6 Signed | 3 Pitchers | 3 Position Players

Notable: The Reds received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round B). They signed their top 12 picks, but failed to sign seven of their next 12 picks with the top holdout being 12th round high school lefty Josiah Sightler (SC).

PITCHERS
Of the 17 pitchers signed (15 RHP, 2 LHP), all but one (college right-hander Noah Davis, 11th round) logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Advanced A) and one of them debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Reds. Another Reds 2018 Draft pick, RHP Josiah Gray (see below), was included in this December 2018 trade to the Dodgers and now appears among their Top 30 prospects.

Top Prospects

RHP Lyon Richardson, 2nd round, Jensen Beach HS (FL), Rk
29 IP | 11 G / 11 GS | 7.14 ERA | 1.828 WHIP | 16 BB : 24 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Josiah Gray, 2nd round, LeMoyne College, Rk
52.1 IP | 12 G / 12 GS | 2.58 ERA | 0.879 WHIP | 17 BB : 59 K
(Traded to the Dodgers in December 2018)

(I would have been more impressed by Gray's debut had the Reds promoted him above the rookie level during the season. But given that the Reds did not have a Short Season A affiliate in 2018, it's somewhat understandable. Byrne, on the other hand, spent his entire 2018 season with the Advanced A Florida State League which makes his numbers play up.)

RHP Mike Byrne, 14th round, University of Florida, A+
21.2 IP | 19 G / 0 GS | 1.25 ERA | 1.338 WHIP | 10 BB : 17 K

In total, the Reds 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.73 ERA and a 1.396 WHIP over 467.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 12 position players signed (1B, 3B, SS, 5 OF, 4 C) logged at least some playing time. Two players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, one to Full Season A and one to Advanced A. Two of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Reds, both as Top 10 prospects.

Top Prospects

🔟 3B Jonathan India (R/R), 1st round, University of Florida, A
44 G | .240/.380/.433/.814 | 28 BB : 44 K

🔟 OF Mike Siani (L/L), 4th round, William Penn Charter School (PA), Rk
46 G | .288/.351/.386/.737 | 16 BB : 35 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

OF Drew Mount (L/R), 16th round, Kansas State University, Rk
65 G | .310/.362/.488/.850 | 18 BB : 40 K | 19 2B / 8 HR | 58 RBI

1B Rylan Thomas (R/R), 26th round, University of Central Florida, Rk
55 G | .257/.400/.492/.892 | 41 BB : 49 K | 12 2B / 10 HR

(Again, these numbers would be more impressive had these two college players been promoted above rookie ball.)

In total, the Reds 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .258/.351/.396/.747 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

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NL East 2018 Draft Summary

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