This morning Eric Smith of the Antelope Valley Press tweeted out the information on how the tandem rotation will line up. Vincent Velasquez and Kyle Westwood will be paired up. Lance McCullers and Kyle Smith; Josh Hader and Chris Devenski; and Mark Appel and Mike Hauschild will round things out. Two things stand out when I look at the rotation ... youth and the distinct absence of lefties. Josh Hader, who will be 20 next month, is the only lefty in the mix. Kyle Smith with 24 Advanced A starts under his belt (but only 5 in the California League) and Chris Devenski with 21 appearances (10 starts) in High A will be the grizzled veterans, followed by Mike Hauschild (8 games/7 starts) and Vincent Velasquez (3 starts).
Lance McCullers - March 2014
Photo by Jayne Hansen
Right or wrong, the first thing I look at when it comes to the pitching staff in Lancaster is the pitcher's ground ball rate. Keeping the ball on the ground isn't a guarantee of success there, but extreme flyball pitchers can get hurt quickly in the California League unless they have very good command and can locate their pitches well. With that said, a few of the starters appear to be well suited to pitch in The Hangar, at least on paper.
Of the eight starters, Mark Appel, Lance McCullers, Kyle Westwood and Mike Hauschild have the most pronounced ground ball tendencies. Velasquez was a groundball pitcher at Quad Cities, but that didn't translate to his three 2013 starts for Lancaster. Josh Hader had a high groundball rate at Quad Cities as well, but over the season prior to coming to the Astros, the rate of ground ball outs to fly ball outs was much more even. McCullers and Hader had the highest walk rates of the group of eight starters in 2013 and that is something to keep an eye on.
Chris Devenski and Kyle Smith have slight tendencies toward fly ball outs, and they will both give up a few long balls at The Hangar. Devenski allowed 13 home runs in 75+ innings at Lancaster last season and Smith allowed four in his 23+ innings there. The key for each of them will be to limit the damage as much as possible to solo shots. Both pitchers let their walk rates creep up a bit in their time in Lancaster which could present a problem if they don't keep the free passes in check, but Smith and Devenski are also both capable of getting a timely strikeout when they need one. Devenski is probably the biggest question mark in the rotation as he did not fare particularly well in Lancaster in 2013.
It is probably a given that Mark Appel will not linger long at the level, and I can see Kent Emanuel taking his place if he does well at Quad Cities, giving the JetHawks another lefty rotation arm. Lefty Brian Holmes is another possibility after he completes his current rehab. The sleeper in this rotation is Kyle Westwood. His first season with Tri-City was nothing short of remarkable and I think he is an excellent fit for this team and this league.
It is probably a given that Mark Appel will not linger long at the level, and I can see Kent Emanuel taking his place if he does well at Quad Cities, giving the JetHawks another lefty rotation arm. Lefty Brian Holmes is another possibility after he completes his current rehab. The sleeper in this rotation is Kyle Westwood. His first season with Tri-City was nothing short of remarkable and I think he is an excellent fit for this team and this league.
There is a tremendous amount of talent in this rotation, but no matter how much talent these players have, they will have to make adjustments. The California League is a tougher environment than the Midwest League, the competition is tougher and the players have to get used to conditions ranging from cold, cold nights in April to brain-scorching sun and heat in August. They have to get used to long commutes to many of the venues, sitting on a hot bus for a couple of hours after a game instead of getting to crash in a comfy hotel room. With all of that said, however, I fully expect this rotation to make those adjustments and to be the biggest strength of this team.
I have a couple of concerns about the JetHawks bullpen. Jamaine Cotton has flyball tendencies and his low strikeout to walk rate gives me pause. He may struggle initially, but I am hoping that he can make the necessary adjustments quickly. Similarly, Mitch Lambson is definitely a flyball pitcher, but Lambson is more prone to get a strikeout when needed. His walk rate ticked up in 2013 and I'd like to see him get a handle on that. I think newcomers J.D. Osborne and Juan Minaya are much better suited to pitching at The Hangar. Osborne has very high ground ball and strikeout rates (but needs to work on his walks), as does Minaya to a lesser extent.
That leaves us with Michael Dimock, Tyson Perez and Daniel Minor. Dimock shows what a flyball pitcher can do in the California League with decent command. His numbers weren't flashy, but he limited walks and only allowed five home runs in 41+ innings for Lancaster. He should be able to build on that and will likely anchor the bullpen. Perez and Minor have both started extensively (and were a part of tandems last season), but both were more effective in relief. Perez had a 4.25 ERA and 1.323 WHIP with 15 walks to 42 strikeouts as a reliever as compared to a 7.69 ERA and 2.046 WHIP with 28 walks to 22 strikeouts as a starter. Minor had a 2.49 ERA and a 1.362 WHIP and his strikeout rate was almost double when he appeared in relief at Quad Cities.
The cumulative ERA for the 2013 Lancaster team was 5.09 and the WHIP was 1.447. I think the 2014 starting rotation will improve on those marks easily, but I'm not quite so sure about the bullpen.
On the offensive side, only four of these position players have spent any time at Lancaster in the past. Brandon Meredith has the most experience at Lancaster, having played there all last season. Despite a slow start in 2013, he ended the season hitting .279/.399/.507 with 25 doubles, five triples, 16 home runs and 68 RBI in 105 games. Reports are that Meredith will be converting to first base. I have full faith in Meredith's bat, but getting comfortable at first base will be an adjustment for him.
The others with experience at Lancaster include Carlos Perdomo, Dan Gulbransen and Roberto Pena. Perdomo is a utility player who hit a very solid .294/.369/.385 in Lancaster in 2013. Gulbransen got a late start to his season, but breezed through first Tri-City and then Quad Cities before playing his final 16 games in Lancaster and hitting .302/.333/.540 (.502 slugging for his season). Pena has only played in 21 games in Lancaster and that was back in 2012. In 86 games in 2013 in Quad Cities, he hit .249/.297/.354. Pena does have a little pop in his bat and he has made incremental improvements at the plate, but it is his excellent skills behind the plate that give any team he plays on a distinct edge at that position.
Then you have Justin Gominsky who missed all of 2013 with a wrist injury and will likely have to shake off some rust; Jake Rodriguez who has only played 32 professional games, hitting .209/.320/.291 at Tri-City; and Tony Kemp who has only played in 75 professional games, hitting a combined .273/.366/.345 for Tri-City and Quad Cities. I think Kemp will adjust quickly with his aggressive style of play, but the other two are wild cards at this point.
They are joined by four-year minor league veteran Jordan Scott who hit .255/.342/.321 in 125 games in Quad Cities. Scott has decent on-base skills and provides some good speed in the outfield and on the base paths, but he would not be considered a power hitter. California League conditions may provide him with a little more pop though.
The final four on the roster have enormous potential, but they are all very young. The least of my worries is Carlos Correa. As a matter of fact, my only worry with Carlos is what happens to the team when he is quickly promoted to Corpus Christi. Correa hit .320/.405/.467 in 117 games at Quad Cities in 2013, and he will hit in Lancaster with no problem. Rio Ruiz is also 19 (he'll be 20 in May). Ruiz didn't have quite the slash line that Correa did in Quad Cities (.260/.335/.430 in 114 games), but he showed continuous improvement throughout the season culminating in a fantastic post-season.
Danry Vasquez just turned 20 in January. He hit .284/.331/.400 in 129 games in the Midwest League in 2013. Teoscar Hernandez, at 21, is the greybeard of this foursome. Hernandez hit a solid .271/.328/435 in 123 games for Quad Cities, but he also struck out 135 times. Correa, Ruiz, Hernandez and Vasquez are all considered among the top prospects in the organization, but there will likely be a period of adjusting to the level.
I think I'm valid in having some concerns about this offense, at least initially, simply due to inexperience, youth or a combination of those two factors. I am not saying that they won't succeed (the California League is, after all, a very good hitter's league overall), but I do think that Hitting Coach Darryl Robinson will have his work cut out for him to maximize the potential for each of these hitters.
The others with experience at Lancaster include Carlos Perdomo, Dan Gulbransen and Roberto Pena. Perdomo is a utility player who hit a very solid .294/.369/.385 in Lancaster in 2013. Gulbransen got a late start to his season, but breezed through first Tri-City and then Quad Cities before playing his final 16 games in Lancaster and hitting .302/.333/.540 (.502 slugging for his season). Pena has only played in 21 games in Lancaster and that was back in 2012. In 86 games in 2013 in Quad Cities, he hit .249/.297/.354. Pena does have a little pop in his bat and he has made incremental improvements at the plate, but it is his excellent skills behind the plate that give any team he plays on a distinct edge at that position.
Then you have Justin Gominsky who missed all of 2013 with a wrist injury and will likely have to shake off some rust; Jake Rodriguez who has only played 32 professional games, hitting .209/.320/.291 at Tri-City; and Tony Kemp who has only played in 75 professional games, hitting a combined .273/.366/.345 for Tri-City and Quad Cities. I think Kemp will adjust quickly with his aggressive style of play, but the other two are wild cards at this point.
They are joined by four-year minor league veteran Jordan Scott who hit .255/.342/.321 in 125 games in Quad Cities. Scott has decent on-base skills and provides some good speed in the outfield and on the base paths, but he would not be considered a power hitter. California League conditions may provide him with a little more pop though.
The final four on the roster have enormous potential, but they are all very young. The least of my worries is Carlos Correa. As a matter of fact, my only worry with Carlos is what happens to the team when he is quickly promoted to Corpus Christi. Correa hit .320/.405/.467 in 117 games at Quad Cities in 2013, and he will hit in Lancaster with no problem. Rio Ruiz is also 19 (he'll be 20 in May). Ruiz didn't have quite the slash line that Correa did in Quad Cities (.260/.335/.430 in 114 games), but he showed continuous improvement throughout the season culminating in a fantastic post-season.
Danry Vasquez just turned 20 in January. He hit .284/.331/.400 in 129 games in the Midwest League in 2013. Teoscar Hernandez, at 21, is the greybeard of this foursome. Hernandez hit a solid .271/.328/435 in 123 games for Quad Cities, but he also struck out 135 times. Correa, Ruiz, Hernandez and Vasquez are all considered among the top prospects in the organization, but there will likely be a period of adjusting to the level.
I think I'm valid in having some concerns about this offense, at least initially, simply due to inexperience, youth or a combination of those two factors. I am not saying that they won't succeed (the California League is, after all, a very good hitter's league overall), but I do think that Hitting Coach Darryl Robinson will have his work cut out for him to maximize the potential for each of these hitters.
The 2013 Lancaster team had a cumulative batting line of .289/.384/.469. That will not be repeated with this group of players, primarily because that kind of cumulative OBP is almost unheard of. The 2013 team was very special in that regard. Meredith and Correa may get on-base at that clip, and Kemp and Perdomo may come close, but the others are not as likely to get on base at that impressive a pace. I think batting average and slugging may be down slightly from 2013 as well, but not by a wide margin.
Before I make my predictions, I would like to caution against irrational exuberance when it comes to this team. Yes, you have two first overall draft picks on the team (along with a number of top prospects), but those two will likely not be in Lancaster very long. Secondly, I would like to reiterate this one point. THEY ARE YOUNG. I went back to look at my season preview for the team last year. The average age of the preliminary roster from last year on opening day was approximately 23 years, 1 month for pitchers and 23 years, 4 months for position players. The average age of the 2014 preliminary roster on opening day? Approximately 21 years, 4 months for pitchers and 22 years, 1 month for position players. Let me repeat. THEY ARE YOUNG. Please adjust your expectations accordingly.
Trying to predict this team's record is very difficult for me. I keep going back to the 2013 Quad Cities team since so many of these players were on that team for part or all of the season. Much like that Quad Cities team, I don't think this team will completely dominate the league, and much like that team, I think they will struggle at times. But I think they will just keep hanging in there like that team did last year. They may not win either half of the season, but I do think they'll still get to the playoffs.
Okay, here goes. Last year's team had an 82-58 record. I think the 2014 JetHawks will have a 78-62 record, will find a back door to get into the playoffs and will get their shot at the California League Championship. With that said, I hope that all of my concerns are unfounded, no one struggles, and they surprise me and win 100 games. I guarantee you that is what Manager Rodney Linares and company will be working toward.
This is the opening day roster as we know it today. I will update it with any changes that may be made before Thursday's opening game which will be at home vs. Lake Elsinore. The schedule can be found here and the radio feed is available here with the inimitable (and ever entertaining) Jason Schwartz calling the action.
PITCHERS
Mark Appel
Jamaine Cotton
Chris Devenski
Michael Dimock
Josh Hader*
Mike Hauschild
Mitch Lambson*
Lance McCullers
Juan Minaya
Daniel Minor
J.D. Osborne*
Tyson Perez
Kyle Smith
Vincent Velasquez
Kyle Westwood
CATCHERS
Roberto Pena
Jake Rodriguez
INFIELDERS
Carlos Correa
Tony Kemp*
Brandon Meredith
Carlos Perdomo
Rio Ruiz*
OUTFIELDERS
Justin Gominsky
Dan Gulbransen*
Teoscar Hernandez
Jordan Scott*
Danry Vasquez*
*Left-handed
#Switch hitter
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.