Quad Cities River Bandits Season Preview

The River Bandits ended their 2014 campaign with a 70-69 record, in 5th place in an 8-team division. With many of the Astros top prospects rising up to the higher levels of the organization, Quad Cities won't see any Top 10 prospects this season, but they will see two players ranked in the Top 20: OF Derek Fisher and RHP Joe Musgrove.

Joe Musgrove - July 2014

Photo by Jayne Hansen

But with that said, I really like this squad. Kevin Comer, Chris Lee, Albert Minnis and Keegan Yuhl all bring Midwest League experience to the table. Comer and Lee, along with Musgrove, will likely anchor this rotation; with a good start to their seasons, any one of those three could merit a promotion to Lancaster long before the end of the season. They will be joined by a 2014 Tri-City trio who all had very good seasons: Austin Chrismon, Bryan Radziewski and Ryan Thompson (my book which is linked below contains some excellent information on these three that I gleaned from Tri-City Pitching Coach Chris Holt).

Several pitchers will be leap-frogging Tri-City. Eric Peterson, Jose Montero and Josh James all had really strong seasons at Greeneville in 2014. Brock Dykxhoorn struggled early with the Greeneville squad, but ended the season with an excellent final month. Daniel Mengden spent limited time with the GCL in 2014 as he was recovering from a stress fracture in his back. Had it not been for the that stress fracture, he likely would have played for Tri-City last season. By all accounts, although Mengden isn't on the current top prospect lists, the former Texas A&M product is expected to breach those lists by season's end. [UPDATE: I totally forgot that Mengden played in 2 games at Tri-City at the end of the season and in the postseason.]

Pitching Coach Dave Borkowski will have three extremely capable catchers on hand to help him get the most out of the pitching staff. Jacob Nottingham, Jamie Ritchie and Alfredo Gonzalez each bring a great deal to the table. I am an unapologetic fan of all three.

Defensively, this infield is going to be very, very solid. I particularly like the middle infield defense of SS Mott Hyde and 2B Alex Hernandez. The offense, however, will be a bit more of a question mark. SS Thomas Lindauer is a solid defender, but he struggled to find consistency with his bat in 2014; he is the only infielder with prior Midwest League experience. Nick Tanielu, who will likely continue his transition to third base, had a great 2014 season at Tri-City and will likely be the offensive star of the infield. Hyde was solid last season as well, but Hernandez struggled. 1B Bryan Muniz was coming on strong at the end of the season for Greeneville, but the start to his career was a little rough. Kristian Trompiz, who has played all over the infield, had an excellent season with the GCL, Greeneville and Tri-City in 2014, but he is only 19. However well he transitions to the level, Trompiz is undoubtedly an exciting player to watch and will likely become a fan favorite.

The outfield, on the other hand, looks to be much stronger offensively. Ryan Bottger and Bobby Boyd both had good overall seasons with the bat and both got their feet wet in the Midwest League. Fisher had a great season in 2014 with Tri-City, although his power has been somewhat slow to develop. Sean McMullen's bat cooled off in 2014 after a very fast start at Greeneville. However, Jorge Martinez looks to offer more from a defensive standpoint than an offensive standpoint at this particular juncture.

The Low A Quad Cities team has the Beloit Snappers (A's), Burlington Bees (Angels), Cedar Rapid Kernels (Twins), Clinton Lumberkings (Mariners), Kane County Cougars (Diamondbacks), Peoria Chiefs (Cardinals), and Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Brewers) as division rivals. Kane County changed affiliations from the Cubs in 2014 to Arizona in 2015. Baseball America has organizational talent rankings for these eight teams as Twins (#4), Diamondbacks (#6), Astros (#14), Cardinals (#16), Brewers (#19), A's (#23), Mariners (#25) and Angels (#28).

Despite the absence of a lot of big name "stars" on this team, I actually have higher hopes for them than I have had since the Astros became affiliated with the River Bandits. The team has a good mix of experience and potential. If pitching and defense really does win games, I think the Quad Cities crew will remain very competitive. If they can catch up to the league offensively sooner rather than later, I think they will be a very solid and well-rounded team. The River Bandits will have a secret weapon this year with new Manager Josh Bonifay. I have watched Bonifay do some incredible things with the Greeneville team the last two seasons, getting the absolute most out of rosters that had a lot of holes in them. I can't wait to see what he can accomplish with this roster.

The River Bandits will start their season on the road against Peoria at 7:00 p.m. tonight. Their home opener will be on Sunday the 12th at 1:15 vs. Clinton.

You will find more detailed information on virtually every player in the Astros minor league system in the 2015 Houston Farm System Handbook. Purchase your copy today!

PRELIMINARY RIVER BANDITS ROSTER (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

PITCHERS

RHP Austin Chrismon
RHP Kevin Comer
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Josh James
LHP Chris Lee
RHP Dan Mengden
LHP Albert Minnis
RHP Jose Montero
RHP Joe Musgrove
RHP Eric Peterson
LHP Bryan Radziewski
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Keegan Yuhl

CATCHERS

Alfredo Gonzalez
Jake Nottingham
Jamie Ritchie

INFIELDERS

Alex Hernandez
Mott Hyde
Thomas Lindauer
Bryan Muniz
Nick Tanielu
Kristian Trompiz

OUTFIELDERS

#Ryan Bottger
*Bobby Boyd
*Derek Fisher
#Jorge Martinez
*Sean McMullen

*Left-handed hitter
#Switch hitter

For more information on where these players came from, see Dustin's post from last week.

Previous Posts
AAA Fresno Grizzlies Season Preview
AA Corpus Christi Hooks Preview
High A Lancaster JetHawks Season Preview

Lancaster JetHawks Season Preview

The JetHawks won their second California League Championship in three years in 2015, ending the season with a 78-62 record. 14 players on the opening day roster were on that Championship team, including MVP Tyler Brunnemann, Astros Top 10 prospect Brett Phillips and Danry Vasquez, among others. They will be joined by another Top 10 prospect, Michael Feliz, as well as highly touted prospects J.D. Davis, A.J. Reed and Adrian Houser.

Brett Phillips - September 2014

Photo by Jayne Hansen

In looking at the lefty pitchers, Brian Holmes will likely anchor the rotation until a presumed promotion to Corpus Christi at some point later in the season. He pitched the entire 2014 season at Lancaster with good results. Evan Grills got his feet wet at the level last season and should improve on his mostly solid results. Randall Fant, who struggled somewhat in 2014, and Blaine Sims, who as a knuckleballer is predictably unpredictable, will be making their Lancaster debuts. Chris Cotton struggled out of the bullpen for Lancaster after his promotion at the very end of the season, but did well in the postseason.

Righthanders (and presumed starters) Michael Feliz, Adrian Houser, Troy Scribner and Edison Frias will all be new to the level and and will all likely have to make adjustments to California League conditions. There may be some ugliness for a couple of these players in April, but I think they are all capable of adapting. On paper, Houser should be helped out by his high groundball rate. They will be joining Gonzalo Sanudo and Zach Morton, both of whom spent a good chunk of 2014 at Lancaster, both of whom spent time in both starting and relief roles and both of whom showed vast improvement at the end of the season. Brunnemann, who had a phenomenal 2014 at Quad Cities and Lancaster, will be joined in the bullpen by Frederick Tiburcio who converted to relief in 2014.

As to the position players, 2014 draft picks J.D. Davis and A.J. Reed are being fast-tracked because of their advanced bats and should enjoy the hitter-friendly confines of The Hangar as well as road trips to High Desert. They will be joining Chase McDonald, who was promoted to Lancaster at the end of 2014, in manning the corner outfield positions. That trio looks to provide a lot of fireworks. The middle infield will be held down by returning players Chan Moon and Jack Mayfield who will be joined by Jose Fernandez who is new to the level. Marc Wik is listed on the roster as a third baseman, but he is actually a utility player who can also play the outfield and second base as well.

All four listed outfielders spent time at Lancaster last year. Look for Danry Vasquez to have a breakthrough season. Look for Brett Phillips to get a mid-season (or earlier) promotion to Corpus Christi. Look for Ronnie Mitchell to continue to surprise people. And look for James Ramsay to continue showing off his excellent defense; the only question is whether or not his bat can catch up on a consistent basis.

Behind the dish, Jobduan Morales will provide solid defense with an emerging bat and Brian Holberton will provide a solid bat with emerging defense.

The Advanced A Lancaster team has the Inland Empire 66ers (Angels), Lake Elsinore Storm (Padres), Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, (Dodgers) and High Desert Mavericks (Rangers) as division rivals. High Desert changed affiliations from Seattle in 2014 to Texas in 2015. Baseball America has organizational talent rankings for these five teams as Dodgers (#3), Rangers (#11), Astros (#14), Padres (#24), and Angels (#28).

I honestly don't know what to expect from this team. I think the offense will be strong, but not quite as strong as last year's ridiculously talented team. But, for me, the pitching is a huge question mark at this point. It will be a matter of how quickly the pitchers who are new to the level will adjust to the level and to the conditions. The team will need someone to step up like Kyle Westwood did in 2014 and provide a steady nucleus to the rotation. Omar Lopez, Quad Cities Manager last season, will be taking the reins at Lancaster and will have the luxury of having already worked with most of these players. Lopez inherits a solid coaching staff and, together, they will undoubtedly field a very competitive team.

The JetHawks will host the San Jose Giants on Thursday, the 9th at 8:30 p.m. CST to open the season. If you are a new JetHawks fan, I guarantee that you will enjoy listening to Jason Schwartz bringing you the action! He is an excellent broadcaster and has become a fan favorite.

You will find more detailed information on virtually every player in the Astros minor league system in the 2015 Houston Farm System Handbook. Purchase your copy today!

PRELIMINARY JETHAWKS ROSTER (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

PITCHERS

RHP Tyler Brunnemann
LHP Chris Cotton
LHP Randall Fant
RHP Michael Feliz
RHP Edison Frias
LHP Evan Grills
LHP Brian Holmes
RHP Adrian Houser
RHP Zach Morton
RHP Gonzalo Sañudo
RHP Troy Scribner
LHP Blaine Sims
RHP Frederick Tiburcio
RHP Andrew Walter (Restricted list)

CATCHERS

*Brian Holberton
#Jobduan Morales

INFIELDERS

J.D. Davis
Jose Fernandez
Jack Mayfield
Chase McDonald
#Chan-Jong Moon
*A.J. Reed
*Marc Wik

OUTFIELDERS

*Ronnie Mitchell
*Brett Phillips
*James Ramsay
*Danry Vásquez

*Left-handed hitter
#Switch-hitter

For more information on where these players came from, see Dustin's post from last week.

Previous Post
AAA Fresno Grizzlies Season Preview
AA Corpus Christi Hooks Preview

Corpus Christi Hooks Season Preview

2014 was a very disappointing season for the Hooks. After making it to the first round of playoffs in 2012 (81-59 record) and 2013 (83-57 record), the Hooks stumbled badly, ending the season with a 67-73 record, far short of a playoff berth.

Look for a huge rebound from that 67-73 record as the Hooks will start the season with six of the Astros Top 10 prospects (SS Carlos Correa, RHP Mark Appel, 3B Colin Moran, OF Teoscar Hernandez, LHP Josh Hader, and RHP Lance McCullers) on their roster. Of those six, four (Appel, Hernandez, Moran and Hader) already have some AA experience under their belt. Correa and McCullers will be making their AA debuts. In addition, Top 10 prospect Vince Velasquez is slated to join the Corpus roster after his return from rehabbing a lat strain suffered in the Arizona Fall League.

Carlos Correa - May 2014

Photo by Jayne Hansen

The pitching on the opening day roster will feature a good amount of AA experience with Mike Hauschild and Chris Devenski in the rotation and lights-out relievers Tyson Perez and Mitch Lambson in the bullpen. Pitching Coach Doug Brocail will also be looking for a comeback season from the once-dominant Travis Ballew in the late innings and will be hoping for Aaron West to show what he can do when healthy. Add in AA rookies Kyle Westwood, Kent Emanuel and Daniel Minor who all had very good seasons in Lancaster last year and top that all off with top prospects Appel, Hader, McCullers (and eventually Velasquez) and you are looking at a very strong staff. Baez is a newcomer to the system (obtained in a trade from Kansas City), but has experience at AA, having pitched in the Texas League last season. Jandel Gustave was recently reported as an addition to the Hooks roster. He may not be ready for the level, but since he was lost and returned via the Rule 5 draft this offseason, I would agree that it is probably the right time to start pushing him more rapidly. I would not be surprised if he starts transitioning towards late-inning relief at some point.

As to the position players, Tyler Heineman, who spent 2014 with Corpus, will be the anchor behind the plate while Roberto Pena and Brett Booth get acquainted with the Texas League. Jon Kemmer will get the chance to prove that his 2014 numbers were not a fluke as he joins Leo Heras, Brandon Meredith and Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield. Hernandez had a solid debut in 23 games in Corpus last season and Meredith was heating up toward the end of the season, putting up a .571 slugging percentage at the end of August.

Tony Kemp may be used in the outfield some this season to add to his versatility, but with the news that Nolan Fontana is being moved to Fresno, Kemp will likely get his share of time at second base, back playing with his early 2014 double-play partner, SS Carlos Correa. Kemp and 3B Colin Moran are proven AA bats and 1B Conrad Gregor was starting to catch up to the league at the end of the season as well. 1B/DH Telvin Nash, repeating the level, will help provide the power, aided by AA newcomer 3B/1B/DH Tyler White while Jio Mier provides seasoned defense at second, short and third base. SS Carlos Correa will bring the excitement.

Although this lineup is loaded, keep in mind that it is very doubtful that Carlos Correa and Mark Appel will tarry long at the level. Don't count on those two (and perhaps a few others on this list) to guide the Hooks to a championship. But the good news is that there are other players waiting in the wings, such as top prospects OF Brett Phillips and RHP Michael Feliz who will be starting the season at Lancaster.

The AA Corpus Christi team has the Frisco Roughriders (Rangers), the Midland Rockhounds (A's) and the San Antonio Missions (Padres) as division rivals. Baseball America has organizational talent rankings for these four teams as Rangers (#11), Astros (#14), A's (#23) and Padres (#24).

It's hard not to be excited about this team. In addition to the loaded roster, the Hooks also have a new skipper in Manager Rodney Linares. Linares guided the Lancaster team to the playoffs for three straight years from 2012 through 2014, winning it all in 2012 and 2014. He has managed the vast majority of these Hooks players in the past. I know that Rodney hates it when I make bold predictions so I'll just say that I think he'll be challenging for a third ring in four years and leave it at that.

The Hooks will start their season on the road at Springfield on Thursday the 9th at 7:10 p.m. CST and will have their home opener on Thursday the 16th at 7:05 p.m., once again playing the Springfield Cardinals.

You will find more detailed information on virtually every player in the Astros minor league system in the 2015 Houston Farm System Handbook. Purchase your copy today!

PRELIMINARY HOOKS ROSTER (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

PITCHERS

RHP R.J. Alaniz (Restricted List)
RHP Mark Appel
RHP Angel Baez
RHP Travis Ballew
RHP Chris Devenski
LHP Kent Emanuel
RHP Jandel Gustave
LHP Josh Hader
RHP Mike Hauschild
LHP Mitch Lambson
RHP Lance McCullers
RHP Dan Minor
RHP Tyson Perez
RHP Vince Velasquez (Will likely start the season on the DL)
RHP Aaron West
RHP Kyle Westwood

CATCHERS

Brett Booth
#Tyler Heineman
Roberto Peña

INFIELDERS

Carlos Correa
*Conrad Gregor
*Tony Kemp
Jio Mier
*Colin Moran
Telvin Nash
Tyler White

OUTFIELDERS

*Leo Heras
Teoscar Hernandez
*Jon Kemmer
Brandon Meredith

*Left-handed hitter
#Switch-hitter

For more information on where these players came from, see Dustin's post from last week.

Previous Post
AAA Fresno Grizzlies Season Preview

Fresno Grizzlies Season Preview

After playing in Oklahoma City for the past four seasons, the Astros AAA affiliate moves to Fresno, California. The OKC RedHawks ended the 2014 season with a 74-70 record, tied for second place in their division while Fresno, a Giants affiliate in 2014, was in last place in their division with a 68-76 record.

As the Fresno Grizzlies, the AAA Astros will now have the Reno Aces (Diamondbacks), the Sacramento River Cats (new Giants affiliate) and the Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners) as their division rivals. Baseball America has organizational talent rankings for these four teams as Diamondbacks (#6), Astros (#14), Mariners (#25) and Giants (#27).

Jon Singleton - March 2014

Photo by Jayne Hansen

The preliminary opening day Fresno roster below (subject to change) only has one of the Astros Top 10 prospects (Domingo Santana), but that situation will probably change by mid-season with the likely promotions of SS Carlos Correa and RHP Mark Appel. Depending on their seasons, these other Top 10 prospects currently on the Corpus Christi roster ... 3B Colin Moran, LHP Josh Hader, RHP Lance McCullers and OF Teoscar Hernandez ... may also make appearances in Fresno at some point during the season. Another Top 10 prospect, RHP Vince Velasquez, is slated for Corpus Christi after he finishes his rehab for a lat strain. Depending on when he gets started, he could also be looking at Fresno by the end of the season.

Depending on how well the Astros bullpen performs, I think it is likely that Jake Buchanan and Kevin Chapman, who are both on the 40-man roster and who both have MLB experience, will be among the first pitchers called upon for help in Houston (RHP Josh Fields will be first, if healthy). Buchanan can either start or relieve as needed, but starters (such as LHP Luis Cruz and RHP Brady Rodgers) will have a harder time finding a spot anytime soon, particularly considering LHP Brett Oberholtzer and RHP Brad Peacock will be the first options considered once they get off the DL. Oberholtzer, Peacock and Fields may appear in Fresno on rehab assignments, but could as easily rehab in Corpus Christi (or other venues) depending on schedules.

The Grizzlies position players who are on the 40-man roster are Stassi, Singleton, Torreyes, Dominguez, Hoes and Santana, with Torreyes being the only one without MLB experience. I would predict that, barring injuries, the first of these to be recalled to Houston would be Singleton. He started out doing quite well in Spring Training before cooling off; once his bat gets hot again, I can't see him biding his time in Fresno.

Of those players who are not currently on the 40-man roster, there are several that may challenge for a roster spot prior to the end of the 2015 season. RHP Jordan Jankowski and LHP Tommy Shirley can start or relieve and, when they are on, they can be devastating. RHP Jason Stoffel really has nothing left to prove at AAA; he was a solid late inning guy at the level last season. 1B/3B Matt Duffy is a sleeper with a consistent bat and solid defense who will be available if Luis Valbuena stumbles. IF/OF Joe Sclafani is a very smart, very versatile, very solid utility player with great instincts. OF Ruben Sosa also has a great deal of versatility in a possible utility role. Both Sclafani and Sosa are switch-hitters which should also help their cause. And, although OF Preston Tucker's big bat and OF Andrew Aplin's spectacular defense will put them on a short list to fill any outfield needs, they will likely have a tougher time because of the VERY crowded Houston outfield.

I'm not going to make any bold predictions this year, but I feel that this will be a very strong team with a good blend of talent and experience. I will predict that there will be A LOT of roster movement throughout the year, but the talent level should actually increase as the season progresses and the top prospects start working their way closer to Houston, and I think their final record will reflect that.

The Grizzlies first game will be at 9:05 CST on Thursday, April 9th. They will host the Las Vegas 51s, the AAA affiliate for the New York Mets.

You will find more detailed information on virtually every player in the Astros minor league system in the 2015 Houston Farm System Handbook. Purchase your copy today!

PITCHERS

RHP Jake Buchanan
LHP Kevin Chapman
LHP Luis Cruz
LHP Darin Downs
RHP James Hoyt
RHP Jordan Jankowski
RHP Brady Rodgers
RHP Richard Rodriguez
LHP Tommy Shirley
RHP Jason Stoffel
RHP Dan Straily
RHP Alex White

CATCHERS

Luis Flores
Max Stassi

INFIELDERS

Matt Dominguez
Matt Duffy
*Nolan Fontana
#Joe Sclafani

*Jon Singleton
Ronald Torreyes

OUTFIELDERS

*Andrew Aplin
L.J. Hoes
Domingo Santana
#Ruben Sosa
*Preston Tucker

*Left-handed hitter

#Switch-hitter

For more information on where these players came from, see Dustin's post from last week.

Quad Cities River Bandits 2014 Season Preview

Over the last few days I've posted season previews for Oklahoma City, Corpus Christi and Lancaster.  The last one up is the Low A Quad Cities River Bandits team. Let me just say this. If pitching and defense really does win games, this Quad Cities bunch is going to win a ton!

The pitching depth on this team is ridiculous. Let's look at the tandems first, taking note of their 2013 stats. Michael Feliz (1.96 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, 10.2 SO/9, 6.00 SO/BB) debuted on a lot of Astros Top 10 prospect lists this off-season. He teams up with Evan Grills, a 21-year old lefty from Canada who made great strides in his development in 2013. He had a 3.34 ERA and a 1.258 WHIP. They both pitched for Tri-City last season.

The second tandem is Adrian Houser (3.42 ERA, 1.340 WHIP) and Gonzalo Sanudo (1.16 ERA, 0.621 WHIP, 11.9 SO/9, 12.75 SO/BB). Pitching for Tri-City in 2013, Houser halved his walk rate from the prior season. Sanudo pitched out of the 'pen for Greeneville and Tri-City in 2013 and is being converted to a starter this season. He walked only four batters in 38+ innings pitched.

Next up is the duo of Andrew Thurman (3.86 ERA, 1.361 WHIP, 9.8 SO/9) and Chris Lee (3.10 ERA, 10.95 WHIP, 9.9 SO/9).  Thurman spent his first professional season in Tri-City and Lee pitched in Greeneville in 2013.

Last but certainly not least is the tandem of Kent Emanuel and Jandel Gustave. Emanuel didn't see much professional action in 2013 after having pitched a full season and on into the College World Series for the University of North Carolina. In four starts with the Gulf Coast League Astros, Emanuel had a 0.00 ERA and a 0.889 WHIP. Jandel Gustave pitched in Greeneville in 2013 and has started getting some attention from prospect followers due to his high octane fastball. He had a 2.68 ERA, a 1.397 WHIP and struck out 10.1 batters per nine innings. He will, however, need to get his walks under control.

Jandel Gustave - August 2013

Photo by Jayne Hansen

And let me assure you, the bullpen is equally impressive:

Tyler Brunnemann - 3.38 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 12.0 SO/9, 6.50 SO/BB
Patrick Christensen - 2.57 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12.2 SO/9, 7.33 SO/BB
Chris Cotton - 1.74 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 2 BB in 31 IP
Albert Minnis - 2.57 ERA, 1.143 WHIP
Zach Morton - 1.75 ERA, 0.877 WHIP
Andrew Walter - 1.66 ERA, 0.711 WHIP, 7.20 SO/BB (5 BB in 38 IP)

Since Morton and Cotton both had a few starts in 2013, they should be available for that role in the event anyone stumbles. Christensen, Minnis and Morton had the highest rates of groundball outs in 2013 and I could see any of those three getting the call to Lancaster if needed.

The 2013 Quad Cities pitchers had a cumulative 3.62 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 8.0 SO/9 and a 2.76 SO/BB rate. If the 2014 staff performs anywhere close to what they did last season, look for them to improve in all of those categories.

As a team, I think this 2014 staff is extremely strong defensively. Outfielders James Ramsay and Brett Phillips were both cited recently by Baseball America for their defensive abilities. The entire infield and catching staff are strong as well.

The cumulative batting line for the 2013 team was .247/.338/.362. Conrad Gregor and Tyler White beat all three of those marks handily in their 2013 campaigns. Brett Booth, Chase McDonald and James Ramsay also had very strong seasons at the plate. Brian Holberton didn't hit particularly well for average, but was among the best in on-base and slugging. Tanner Mathis had the best on-base percentage of the group and one of the highest batting averages. Austin Elkins and Brett Phillips should also beat the team's on-base mark from last season.

Jobduan Morales had a tough season in 2013, hitting far below his career marks so I look for improvements from him. Hopefully, Jack Mayfield and Jon Kemmer will make the necessary adjustments to improve on their first season numbers. Chan Moon's .263/.327/.335 batting line from 2013 is probably about what you can expect from him in 2014 as well.

Overall, I think this team will have a batting average similar to 2013 and a slightly lower slugging percentage, but will get on base at a substantially higher pace.

Last season's team finished with a record of 81-57. I think this team is going to outperform that number on the strength of pitching and defense. I'm going to go with a 85-55 record and once again playoff bound. Back-to-back Midwest League Championships are not out of the question. Make it happen, Omar!

This is the opening day roster. The season schedule can be found here, game video is available here, and the radio feed is available here with Marco LaNave calling the action. 

PITCHERS
Tyler Brunnemann
Patrick Christensen
Chris Cotton*
Kent Emanuel*
Michael Feliz
Evan Grills*
Jandel Gustave
Adrian Houser
Chris Lee*
Albert Minnis* - not on opening day roster
Zach Morton
Gonzalo Sanudo
Andrew Thurman
Andrew Walter

CATCHERS
Brett Booth - not on opening day roster
Brian Holberton*
Jobduan Morales#

INFIELDERS
Austin Elkins#
Conrad Gregor*
Jack Mayfield
Chase McDonald
Chan Moon*
Tyler White

OUTFIELDERS
Jon Kemmer*
Tanner Mathis*
Brett Phillips*
James Ramsay

*Left-handed

#Switch hitter

Oklahoma City RedHawks 2014 Season Preview

Earlier this week, I posted my Season Previews for the AA Corpus Christi Hooks and for the Advanced A Lancaster JetHawks. Today, we'll look at the AAA Oklahoma City RedHawks.

[NOTE: This is all subject to change as rosters are not 100% final at this point. Additionally, LHP Raul Valdes made it through waivers and was outrighted to OKC which complicates matters a little further.]

The pitching for the RedHawks should be very strong, anchored by several pitchers who played in a significant number of games at that level in 2013. The four initial tandem pairs will be Rudy Owens and Mike Foltynewicz; Jake Buchanan and Paul Clemens; David Martinez and Bobby Doran; and Nick Tropeano and Collin McHugh. That's an impressive line-up of talent, plus Asher Wojciechowski, Alex White and Kyle Weiland are all waiting in the wings. That trio will start the season on the DL.

Of those starters, Buchanan, Clemens, Doran, Owens and McHugh have all had enough time at AAA that they should benefit from the experience and be able to build on it. The collective team ERA for Oklahoma City last season was 4.29 and the WHIP was 1.395. Buchanan and Doran were able to beat those marks in their time with the RedHawks in 2013, as did McHugh in his time at AAA in 2013. Clemens had a slightly higher ERA (4.50) than the collective, but a lower WHIP (1.267), plus his experience at the major league level should serve him well.

Owens only appeared in four games before injury derailed his season, but his 2012 AAA ERA was 3.48 with a WHIP of 1.190. Owens also pitched extremely well in winter ball in the Dominican Republic during the off-season. David Martinez has the least experience at AAA of those pitchers mentioned thus far. He struggled in two of his three outings at the level, but Martinez dominated in AA, putting up a 2.02 ERA and a 0.997 WHIP in 26 games (18 starts) at Corpus Christi.

Mike Foltynewicz and Nick Tropeano have no prior AAA experience. Tropeano had a 4.11 ERA and a 1.339 WHIP in 28 appearances in Corpus Christi while Folty had a 2.87 ERA and a 1.229 WHIP in 23 appearances at Corpus, after starting his season in Lancaster. Both will likely need to make adjustments to the AAA level, but I have no reason to believe that won't happen. In Folty's case, based upon his Spring Training performance, that adjustment may not take long.

The bullpen should be pretty steady, anchored by Josh Zeid and Jason Stoffel, both of whom had significant experience at AAA last season. And of course Zeid, Darin Downs, Chia-Jen Lo and Jose Cisnero all have major league experience as well. Lo actually leap-frogged Oklahoma City last season, getting the call directly from Corpus so this will be his first experience at the level. Patrick Urckfitz only pitched in 10 games at AAA last season, but his transition was solid. One key to the success of this particular group is keeping their walks down. In particular, Cisnero and Zeid tended to walk more than their share of batters last season.

The 2013 RedHawks team had a collective batting average of .271/.347/.403. This group should outperform that line. Just look at an opening day roster that features Max Stassi, Carlos Perez and Ryan McCurdy behind the dish as compared to Cody Clark, Jason Jaramillo and Chris Wallace on last year's opening day roster. That is definitely an offensive (and defensive) upgrade. Perez played 75 games at AAA last season and was solid offensively and Stassi crushed pitching at AA Corpus before making his major league debut. McCurdy isn't flashy with the bat, but he can get on base consistently.

George Springer and Jon Singleton should provide a lot of offense, at least until they hit Houston. Springer will presumably move up first, but Singleton shouldn't be too far behind. Utility player Ruben Sosa has a little prior experience at AAA in which he held his own. Gregorio Petit hit a very nice .292/.344/.380 in 134 games at AAA in 2013. Adron Chambers had a .252/.338/.387 batting line at AAA in 2013, but actually hit better at that level in 2012 -- .319/.405/.403. Austin Wates only played in 15 games at Oklahoma City last year before a fractured forearm derailed his season, but Wates has always been able to hit at every level. I don't think AAA will deter the career .304/.377/.424 hitter. Japhet Amador got 10 games under his extra large belt in Oklahoma City last year. How he will adjust over the long run as he transitions from the Mexican League is a wild card.

George Springer - March 2014

Photo by Jayne Hansen

That leaves Erik Castro, Jonathan Meyer, Ronald Torreyes and Domingo Santana as the only remaining players on the team with no experience above AA. Castro is one of those under-the-radar guys. He hit .280/.368/.480 in AA in 2013, and I think he will make the quickest adjustment of these four to the AAA level. I don't have a good enough feel for Torreyes to say how quickly he will adjust. Torreyes hit a combined .269/.329/.368 at AA with the Cubs and Astros organizations. Santana (.252/.345/.498 at AA) and Meyer (.260/.318/.403 at AA) will likely be slower to make the necessary adjustments to AAA pitching than Castro, but I feel certain that both will quickly provide some extra-base excitement for the team.

One thing that I am struck by is that Singleton and Castro are the only left-handed hitters in this line-up. They are joined by the switch-hitter Sosa as the only real options from the left side of the plate. Left-handed OF Preston Tucker, who will start the season at Corpus, could very well be slated for Oklahoma City as soon as Springer gets to Houston.

It is very difficult to predict any minor league team's season, but it is most difficult to predict AAA as the opening day roster and closing day roster will look very, very different. Several of these players will end the season in Houston. Some will likely be traded or released. However, with that said, I'm game to make a prediction.

Last season, the RedHawks ended the year with a 82-62 record or a .569 win percentage. I think that the 2014 team will be an upgrade over 2013 in both pitching and offense, but particularly in pitching with Wojciechowski, White and Weiland adding their contributions at some point. I'm going out on a limb and saying that the RedHawks will end the season with an 86-54 record and will bring home some hardware this season.

This is the opening day roster as we know it today. I will update it with any changes that may be made before tonight's opening game which will be on the road vs. Round Rock. The schedule can be found here and all games will be available on MiLB.tv.

PITCHERS
Jake Buchanan
Jose Cisnero
Paul Clemens
Bobby Doran
Darin Downs*
Mike Foltynewicz
Chia-Jen Lo
David Martinez
Collin McHugh
Rudy Owens*
Jason Stoffel
Nick Tropeano
Pat Urckfitz*
Josh Zeid

CATCHERS
Ryan McCurdy
Carlos Perez
Max Stassi

INFIELDERS
Japhet Amador
Erik Castro*
Jonathan Meyer
Gregorio Petit
Jon Singleton*
Ruben Sosa#
Ronald Torreyes

OUTFIELDERS
Adron Chambers
Domingo Santana
George Springer
Austin Wates

* - denotes left-hander

# - denotes switch-hitter

Lancaster JetHawks 2014 Season Preview

Yesterday, I posted the season preview for Corpus Christi. With the Advanced A Lancaster preliminary roster coming out yesterday, let's move on to previewing the JetHawks. This one isn't going to be as easy to predict as last year's, but I'll give it a go.

This morning Eric Smith of the Antelope Valley Press tweeted out the information on how the tandem rotation will line up. Vincent Velasquez and Kyle Westwood will be paired up. Lance McCullers and Kyle Smith; Josh Hader and Chris Devenski; and Mark Appel and Mike Hauschild  will round things out. Two things stand out when I look at the rotation ... youth and the distinct absence of lefties. Josh Hader, who will be 20 next month, is the only lefty in the mix. Kyle Smith with 24 Advanced A starts under his belt (but only 5 in the California League) and Chris Devenski with 21 appearances (10 starts) in High A will be the grizzled veterans, followed by Mike Hauschild (8 games/7 starts) and Vincent Velasquez (3 starts).

Lance McCullers - March 2014

Photo by Jayne Hansen

Right or wrong, the first thing I look at when it comes to the pitching staff in Lancaster is the pitcher's ground ball rate. Keeping the ball on the ground isn't a guarantee of success there, but extreme flyball pitchers can get hurt quickly in the California League unless they have very good command and can locate their pitches well. With that said, a few of the starters appear to be well suited to pitch in The Hangar, at least on paper.

Of the eight starters, Mark Appel, Lance McCullers, Kyle Westwood and Mike Hauschild have the most pronounced ground ball tendencies. Velasquez was a groundball pitcher at Quad Cities, but that didn't translate to his three 2013 starts for Lancaster. Josh Hader had a high groundball rate at Quad Cities as well, but over the season prior to coming to the Astros, the rate of ground ball outs to fly ball outs was much more even. McCullers and Hader had the highest walk rates of the group of eight starters in 2013 and that is something to keep an eye on.

Chris Devenski and Kyle Smith have slight tendencies toward fly ball outs, and they will both give up a few long balls at The Hangar. Devenski allowed 13 home runs in 75+ innings at Lancaster last season and Smith allowed four in his 23+ innings there. The key for each of them will be to limit the damage as much as possible to solo shots. Both pitchers let their walk rates creep up a bit in their time in Lancaster which could present a problem if they don't keep the free passes in check, but Smith and Devenski are also both capable of getting a timely strikeout when they need one. Devenski is probably the biggest question mark in the rotation as he did not fare particularly well in Lancaster in 2013.

It is probably a given that Mark Appel will not linger long at the level, and I can see Kent Emanuel taking his place if he does well at Quad Cities, giving the JetHawks another lefty rotation arm. Lefty Brian Holmes is another possibility after he completes his current rehab. The sleeper in this rotation is Kyle Westwood. His first season with Tri-City was nothing short of remarkable and I think he is an excellent fit for this team and this league.

There is a tremendous amount of talent in this rotation, but no matter how much talent these players have, they will have to make adjustments. The California League is a tougher environment than the Midwest League, the competition is tougher and the players have to get used to conditions ranging from cold, cold nights in April to brain-scorching sun and heat in August. They have to get used to long commutes to many of the venues, sitting on a hot bus for a couple of hours after a game instead of getting to crash in a comfy hotel room. With all of that said, however, I fully expect this rotation to make those adjustments and to be the biggest strength of this team.

I have a couple of concerns about the JetHawks bullpen. Jamaine Cotton has flyball tendencies and his low strikeout to walk rate gives me pause. He may struggle initially, but I am hoping that he can make the necessary adjustments quickly. Similarly, Mitch Lambson is definitely a flyball pitcher, but Lambson is more prone to get a strikeout when needed. His walk rate ticked up in 2013 and I'd like to see him get a handle on that. I think newcomers J.D. Osborne and Juan Minaya are much better suited to pitching at The Hangar. Osborne has very high ground ball and strikeout rates (but needs to work on his walks), as does Minaya to a lesser extent.

That leaves us with Michael Dimock, Tyson Perez and Daniel Minor. Dimock shows what a flyball pitcher can do in the California League with decent command. His numbers weren't flashy, but he limited walks and only allowed five home runs in 41+ innings for Lancaster. He should be able to build on that and will likely anchor the bullpen. Perez and Minor have both started extensively (and were a part of tandems last season), but both were more effective in relief. Perez had a 4.25 ERA and 1.323 WHIP with 15 walks to 42 strikeouts as a reliever as compared to a 7.69 ERA and 2.046 WHIP with 28 walks to 22 strikeouts as a starter. Minor had a 2.49 ERA and a 1.362 WHIP and his strikeout rate was almost double when he appeared in relief at Quad Cities.

The cumulative ERA for the 2013 Lancaster team was 5.09 and the WHIP was 1.447. I think the 2014 starting rotation will improve on those marks easily, but I'm not quite so sure about the bullpen.

On the offensive side, only four of these position players have spent any time at Lancaster in the past. Brandon Meredith has the most experience at Lancaster, having played there all last season. Despite a slow start in 2013, he ended the season hitting .279/.399/.507 with 25 doubles, five triples, 16 home runs and 68 RBI in 105 games. Reports are that Meredith will be converting to first base. I have full faith in Meredith's bat, but getting comfortable at first base will be an adjustment for him.

The others with experience at Lancaster include Carlos Perdomo, Dan Gulbransen and Roberto Pena. Perdomo is a utility player who hit a very solid .294/.369/.385 in Lancaster in 2013. Gulbransen got a late start to his season, but breezed through first Tri-City and then Quad Cities before playing his final 16 games in Lancaster and hitting .302/.333/.540 (.502 slugging for his season). Pena has only played in 21 games in Lancaster and that was back in 2012. In 86 games in 2013 in Quad Cities, he hit .249/.297/.354. Pena does have a little pop in his bat and he has made incremental improvements at the plate, but it is his excellent skills behind the plate that give any team he plays on a distinct edge at that position.

Then you have Justin Gominsky who missed all of 2013 with a wrist injury and will likely have to shake off some rust; Jake Rodriguez who has only played 32 professional games, hitting .209/.320/.291 at Tri-City; and Tony Kemp who has only played in 75 professional games, hitting a combined .273/.366/.345 for Tri-City and Quad Cities. I think Kemp will adjust quickly with his aggressive style of play, but the other two are wild cards at this point.

They are joined by four-year minor league veteran Jordan Scott who hit .255/.342/.321 in 125 games in Quad Cities. Scott has decent on-base skills and provides some good speed in the outfield and on the base paths, but he would not be considered a power hitter. California League conditions may provide him with a little more pop though.

The final four on the roster have enormous potential, but they are all very young. The least of my worries is Carlos Correa. As a matter of fact, my only worry with Carlos is what happens to the team when he is quickly promoted to Corpus Christi. Correa hit .320/.405/.467 in 117 games at Quad Cities in 2013, and he will hit in Lancaster with no problem. Rio Ruiz is also 19 (he'll be 20 in May). Ruiz didn't have quite the slash line that Correa did in Quad Cities (.260/.335/.430 in 114 games), but he showed continuous improvement throughout the season culminating in a fantastic post-season.

Danry Vasquez just turned 20 in January. He hit .284/.331/.400 in 129 games in the Midwest League in 2013. Teoscar Hernandez, at 21, is the greybeard of this foursome. Hernandez hit a solid .271/.328/435 in 123 games for Quad Cities, but he also struck out 135 times. Correa, Ruiz, Hernandez and Vasquez are all considered among the top prospects in the organization, but there will likely be a period of adjusting to the level.

I think I'm valid in having some concerns about this offense, at least initially, simply due to inexperience, youth or a combination of those two factors. I am not saying that they won't succeed (the California League is, after all, a very good hitter's league overall), but I do think that Hitting Coach Darryl Robinson will have his work cut out for him to maximize the potential for each of these hitters.

The 2013 Lancaster team had a cumulative batting line of .289/.384/.469. That will not be repeated with this group of players, primarily because that kind of cumulative OBP is almost unheard of. The 2013 team was very special in that regard. Meredith and Correa may get on-base at that clip, and Kemp and Perdomo may come close, but the others are not as likely to get on base at that impressive a pace. I think batting average and slugging may be down slightly from 2013 as well, but not by a wide margin.

Before I make my predictions, I would like to caution against irrational exuberance when it comes to this team. Yes, you have two first overall draft picks on the team (along with a number of top prospects), but those two will likely not be in Lancaster very long. Secondly, I would like to reiterate this one point. THEY ARE YOUNG. I went back to look at my season preview for the team last year. The average age of the preliminary roster from last year on opening day was approximately 23 years, 1 month for pitchers and 23 years, 4 months for position players. The average age of the 2014 preliminary roster on opening day? Approximately 21 years, 4 months for pitchers and 22 years, 1 month for position players. Let me repeat. THEY ARE YOUNG. Please adjust your expectations accordingly.

Trying to predict this team's record is very difficult for me. I keep going back to the 2013 Quad Cities team since so many of these players were on that team for part or all of the season. Much like that Quad Cities team, I don't think this team will completely dominate the league, and much like that team, I think they will struggle at times. But I think they will just keep hanging in there like that team did last year. They may not win either half of the season, but I do think they'll still get to the playoffs.

Okay, here goes. Last year's team had an 82-58 record. I think the 2014 JetHawks will have a 78-62 record, will find a back door to get into the playoffs and will get their shot at the California League Championship. With that said, I hope that all of my concerns are unfounded, no one struggles, and they surprise me and win 100 games. I guarantee you that is what Manager Rodney Linares and company will be working toward.

This is the opening day roster as we know it today. I will update it with any changes that may be made before Thursday's opening game which will be at home vs. Lake Elsinore. The schedule can be found here and the radio feed is available here with the inimitable (and ever entertaining) Jason Schwartz calling the action.

PITCHERS
Mark Appel
Jamaine Cotton
Chris Devenski
Michael Dimock
Josh Hader*
Mike Hauschild
Mitch Lambson*
Lance McCullers
Juan Minaya
Daniel Minor
J.D. Osborne*
Tyson Perez
Kyle Smith
Vincent Velasquez
Kyle Westwood

CATCHERS
Roberto Pena
Jake Rodriguez

INFIELDERS
Carlos Correa
Tony Kemp*
Brandon Meredith
Carlos Perdomo
Rio Ruiz*

OUTFIELDERS
Justin Gominsky
Dan Gulbransen*
Teoscar Hernandez
Jordan Scott*
Danry Vasquez*

*Left-handed

#Switch hitter

Corpus Christi Season Preview and Preliminary Roster

The minor league rosters have been slow to come out, but yesterday evening Greg Rajan of the Corpus Christi Caller Times tweeted out the PRELIMINARY Corpus Christi roster. There are 27 players listed so there will still be a couple of moves to be made, but we can now see the general make-up of the team. The preliminary roster is shown below.

We are starting to see the cream rise to the top of the system with the talent at Corpus Christi and Oklahoma City and it's easy to get excited about future possibilities with players such as Brady Rodgers, Andrew Aplin, Tyler Heineman and Delino DeShields getting their first taste of AA.

Four of the pitchers who I assume will be a part of the tandem rotation have experience at AA and four will be new to the level. Luis Cruz made a splash in his four appearances in Corpus, tossing a two-hit complete game shutout in only his third appearance at the level. Fellow lefty David Rollins was also promoted from Lancaster to Corpus Christi late in the season. In six starts, Rollins had a 4.36 ERA and a 1.455 WHIP. He will definitely improve upon those numbers in 2014. Matt Heidenreich struggled on and off with injuries and ineffectiveness during the 2013 season, but he seemed to right the ship in his excellent work in the Arizona Fall League. Reports are that he has re-claimed some lost velocity. The group is rounded out by grizzled veteran Ross Seaton who struggled at Oklahoma City and ended up back in Corpus Christi for his final 10 appearances of the season in which he managed a 4.77 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP.

They will be joined by right-handers Brady Rodgers and Aaron West, and lefties Colton Cain and Tommy Shirley. Rodgers and West are both better than their California League stats would indicate (as is normally the case). After pitching in those very tough environs, I think the transition to AA for these two control pitchers will go very smoothly. Rodgers only walked 23 batters in 112 innings. West was even stingier, issuing only 17 free passes in 108+ innings.

[UPDATE: The tandems have been set according to Greg Rajan of the Corpus Christi Caller Times. They will be Rodgers/Cain, Rollins/West, Cruz/Seaton, Shirley/Heidenreich.)

Brady Rodgers - May 2013

Photo by Jayne Hansen

I'm not sure what to predict for Colton Cain because of the unusual season he had last year. He started the season in Quad Cities and struggled badly at first, but ended up dominating there prior to his promotion to Lancaster. In five starts at Lancaster to end the season, he had a 3.24 ERA and a 1.260 WHIP, excellent numbers for that league. Tommy Shirley quietly went about having a great season in Lancaster. In 27 appearances (nine starts), he had a 3.35 ERA and a 1.195 WHIP.

Four of the bullpen pitchers have experience at the level. Andrew Robinson (who dominated late in the season last year), Jorge de Leon and Alex Sogard should all be solid out of the 'pen. T.J. Geith was somewhat inconsistent in his 13 appearances, but he has had success at every level and will likely make the necessary adjustments. Travis Ballew and Jordan Jankowski will join them from Lancaster. Ballew has a wicked slider which he used to accumulate 21 saves last season. He had 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Jankowski started the season in Quad Cities as a part of a tandem rotation, but ended up working solely out of the 'pen from mid-July on. He had a 3.05 ERA and a 1.082 WHIP for the season.

The cumulative team ERA for Corpus in 2013 was 3.84 and the WHIP was 1.295. Despite the talent on the 2014 team, this group will be hard-pressed to match those marks unless a few of them have the kind of dominant seasons that Asher Wojciechowski, Jake Buchanan, David Martinez and Mike Foltynewicz had last season at that level. However, I think they could come close.

The cumulative 2013 batting line for Corpus Christi was .255/.331/.417. The 2014 group of players as a whole is going to CRUSH that on-base number if they even come close to their 2013 output. They should also beat that batting average pretty handily and should be able to nudge the slugging percentage up a bit as well. This team may not be quite as dominant in pitching as the 2013 squad, but they should more than make up for it at the plate.

Out of this group, Rene Garcia had the most success at this level in 2013, hitting. 304/.348/.419 in 73 games in Corpus last season. Matt Duffy (.295/.380/.475 career) and Preston Tucker (.303/.373/.506 career) spent limited time at AA in 2013 and I look for both of them to improve quickly as they adjust to the level. (Tucker will likely be the player promoted to Oklahoma City when George Springer gets the call to Houston.) Leo Heras only played in 10 games at Corpus in 2013 with lackluster results, but he is a .316/.380/.480 career hitter in the Mexican League. He may not be able to hit quite that well against Texas League pitching, but if he can make the necessary adjustments, he could be very interesting to watch.

Kike Hernandez was coming on at the end of the season and should be able to improve on his .236/.297/.375 batting line. Jio Mier had a very tough year at the plate (.194/.293/.265). He will never have a gaudy slash line, but he is certainly capable of more than that.

But now let's look at the new blood coming in. This group has some excellent offensive numbers and not all of that can be attributed to the Lancaster effect. In particular, look at the on-base percentage for each; it's pretty impressive. The new players and their stats from the 2013 Lancaster team are: M.P. Cokinos (.313/.395/.475), Tyler Heineman (.286/.361/.476), Nolan Fontana (.259/.415/.399), Joe Sclafani (.302/.396/.474), Andrew Aplin (.278/.376/.424), Delino DeShields (.317/.405/.468) and Chris Epps (.275/.381/.503). Wow! I know that none of these players will start out hitting quite that well, with the possible exception of Cokinos who doesn't appear to be human, but the potential staggers the mind.

To me, it's not a question of whether or not this team will be good. It will. The question is when. There will be a learning curve and adjustments to be made, but I have trouble seeing this group ever really struggle. The nucleus of the team comes from the 2013 Lancaster team, a team that was extremely tight and extremely effective. Add to that the likelihood of Mark Appel and Carlos Correa appearing with the Hooks at some point in the not so distant future, and one can't help but get excited. I'm going to boldly predict that this group will outperform the 2013 Corpus team who went 83-57 and won both halves of the season. I'm saying 88-52 and a trip to the Championship. Make it so!

This is the opening day roster as we know it today. I will update it with any changes that may be made before Thursday's opening game which will be on the road in Tulsa. The schedule can be found here and all games will be available on MiLB.tv.

PITCHERS

Travis Ballew

Colton Cain*

Luis Cruz*

Jorge de Leon

T.J. Geith*

Matt Heidenreich

Jordan Jankowski

Andrew Robinson

Brady Rodgers

David Rollins*

Ross Seaton

Tommy Shirley*

Alex Sogard*

Aaron West

CATCHERS

Rene Garcia

Tyler Heineman#

INFIELDERS

M.P. Cokinos
Matt Duffy

Nolan Fontana*

Enrique Hernandez

Jio Mier

Joe Sclafani#

OUTFIELDERS

Andrew Aplin*

Delino DeShields

Chris Epps*

Leo Heras*

Preston Tucker*

*Left-handed
#Switch-hitter