Lexington Preview

Now that the Lexington opening day roster has been set, I've looked at the assigned players and their 2011 stats in order to make at least an educated guess as to how that team will do in 2012.  First, the bad news ...

This team, as a whole, doesn't look to create any more offense than the 2011 Lexington team, at least not on paper.  As a group, they have a BA and OBP that is slightly higher than the 2011 team, but a significantly lower slugging percentage.

Several things need to happen in order to see better offensive output.  First of all, Matt Duffy, Emilio King and Jordan Scott (in particular) need to avoid a major fall-off from their 2011 numbers.  Secondly, Roberto Pena, Delino Deshields and Alex Todd need to make at least an incremental improvement in offensive numbers.  Finally, if some of the doubles power shown by Mike Kvasnicka and Matt Duffy could translate into home run power, that would go a long way toward shoring up the Lexington offense.

As far as the pitching goes, that is more of a good news situation.  As a group, the opening day roster pitchers for Lexington had a 4.12 ERA and a 1.380 WHIP for 2011 as compared to the 2011 Lexington staff which compiled a 4.63 ERA and a 1.413 WHIP.  In looking at the projected starters, it is even better as they compiled a 4.06 ERA and a 1.373 WHIP in 2011 (as compared to the five main starters at Lexington for 2011 who had a 4.62 ERA and a 1.387 WHIP).

However, as a group, the projected 2012 Lexington starters only had a .396 win percentage in 2011 as opposed to the Lexington 2011 starters who had a .428 win percentage.  But the entire 2012 Lexington pitching line-up had a .480 win percentage in 2011, higher than the 2011 Lexington staff's .449 win percentage.  Let's move on before your eyes glaze over completely.

What will it take for this pitching staff to succeed?  Kyle Hallock and Nick Tropeano need to build on their very strong freshman seasons.  Mike Foltynewicz and Tanner Bushue need to take that next step in their development as they repeat this level (and Bushue needs to stay healthy).  The bullpen also has to share the load.  None of the projected starters, other than Foltynewicz, pitched more than 85.1 innings in 2011, but that shouldn't be a huge problem with former starters Quevedo and Cruz in the bullpen.  Strong relief performances from Chowning and Diaz will help as well.

Last season culminated in 59 wins and 79 losses, a .428 win percentage.  I believe that they will improve that record due to an upgraded pitching staff, but I still have concerns about their offense.  I think a reasonable projection for this season would be 65 wins and 75 losses, a .464 win percentage, but I hope they prove me spectacularly wrong (in a good way).