Astros Season Predictions - A Few Hits and and Few Misses

Prior to the season, I went out on a limb and made a lot of predictions. Some were hit out of the ballpark and some were as bad as Chris Carter's 212th strikeout of the season. But at least I had the guts (or the stupidity) to put my name on them. Here's how I did.

OKLAHOMA CITY

Prediction: "Last season, the RedHawks ended the year with a 78-65 record in 143 games or a .545 win percentage. I think that the 2013 team will win fewer games with their bats, but the pitching depth will more than make up for that so I predict the team will improve on that record. Let's say somewhere between 82-62 and 85-59 and playoff bound."

Actual: On the money! The RedHawks ended their season with an 82-62 record and made it to the playoffs. The pitching staff did step it up, improving their team ERA from 4.89 to 4.48 and the team WHIP from 1.508 to 1.395. And the hitters did regress somewhat from the prior year, hitting .271/.347/.403 as opposed to their 2012 counterparts who hit .282/.349/.434.

What went wrong? Pitching-wise, let's just say that the names RHP John Ely, LHP Rudy Owens, LHP Wes Musick, RHP C.J. Fick and RHP Jose Valdez all received mentions and were mostly non-factors, as was RHP Jose Cisnero who spent the better part of the season in Houston. Ditto for OF Jake Goebbert from the offensive side. Goebbert was traded to the A's two days after I wrote my season preview.

What went right? RHP Jarred Cosart and LHP Brett Oberholtzer, in particular, did what I thought they would, as did RHP Josh Zeid and LHP Kevin Chapman out of the 'pen. (Coincidentally, I was unsure what would become of RHP Paul Clemens, whether he would be better suited to be a starter or a reliever. That is something about which I am still unclear.) OF Marc Krauss and IF Jose Martinez made the necessary adjustments to the AAA level and OF Robbie Grossman and SS Jonathan Villar did very well in their first season at the level.

Other Factors: Because of the pitching injuries, many additional pitchers who were not on the opening day roster stepped up and contributed, including RHP Asher Wojciechowski, RHP Jake Buchanan and RHP David Martinez among others.

Go here to see my full preview of the RedHawks season.

CORPUS CHRISTI

Prediction: "This one is really, really difficult for me to predict. There are so many variables, but here goes nothing. I think this team will struggle in the first half, similar to last season, but catch on fire in the second half, also similar to last season. I think they will make it to the playoffs, but with fewer wins than last season. In 2012, they were 81-59. In 2013, I predict 78-62."

Actual: Boy, was I ever wrong on this one! The Hooks ended up 83-57 with the best record in the Astros system. They did make it to the playoffs, but fell short in the first round. I thought that the pitching staff would perform worse than the 2012 team who had a 4.06 ERA and a 1.332 WHIP. In reality, the 2013 Hooks had a collective 3.84 ERA and a 1.295 WHIP. I thought the team batting average would be better, but they actually fell from .268 to .255.

What went wrong? RHP Nick Tropeano had modest success for the season, but did not perform as I had anticipated and RHP Matt Heidenreich struggled through injuries and ineffectivness (he will try to re-group in the Arizona Fall League). Offensively, SS Jio Mier had a larger regression from High A Lancaster than I anticipated; IF Kike Hernandez didn't master the AA level; and OF Michael Burgess didn't live up to billing.

What went right? Pitching, pitching, pitching. RHP Asher Wojciechowski, RHP David Martinez and RHP Jake Buchanan simply dominated at the level. C Rene Garcia was one of the best hitters on the team, leading to his promotion to AAA after 73 games. 3B Jonathan Meyer surprised me somewhat with his solid hitting. And OF George Springer was Superman.

Other Factors: C Max Stassi was a huge catalyst on the offensive side once he came off the DL and joined the team. RHP Mike Foltynewicz was a steady contributor after his promotion from Lancaster in May.

Go here to see my full preview of the Hooks season.

LANCASTER

Prediction: "Now for prediction time! Last season's team ERA was 5.00 and the WHIP was 1.458. The 2013 team will beat both of those numbers easily. Last season's team batting line was .283/.353/.448. The 2013 team will have a slightly higher batting average, a modestly higher on-base percentage and a significantly higher slugging percentage. Last year's record was 74-66. This year, I'm calling for a somewhat slow April before things start to take off culminating in a final record of 85-55 and a second California League Championship. I'm not going to be timid in this prediction because even if key players are promoted during the season, there are a ton more talented players waiting in the wings. This is the first time in a very long time that one can say that about the Astros farm system."

Actual: The JetHawks ended up with an 82-58 record and fell in the first round of the playoffs so my hyperbole fell a bit short. The team ERA (5.09) was higher than predicted, but the WHIP (1.447) was slightly lower than last season. I underestimated how The Hangar can hurt more than just a pitcher's feelings with its rather rude tendencies. The team batting line of .289/.384/.469 showed modest gains in all areas.

What went wrong? For one thing, I really expected RHP Alex Gillingham to flourish on this pitching staff as an extreme groundball pitcher in a flyball-friendly park. Instead, he ended up on the DL (Weiland Island?) after pitching only eight innings. I was also concerned about how RHP Chris Devenski's flyball tendencies would translate at The Hangar. They didn't translate well and Devenski ended up back at Quad Cities to end the season. Offensively, not much went wrong other than losing the bats of OF Preston Tucker and 3B Matt Duffy to promotion.

What went right? Several pitchers put up very good seasons. RHP Mike Foltynewicz and RHP Carlos Quevedo didn't last long at The Caster before their promotion to Corpus Christi. LHP Luis Cruz, LHP David Rollins and RHP Jonas Dufek all had very good seasons with the RedHawks before their promotions. As closer, RHP Travis Ballew was dominant for much of the season. RHP Brady Rodgers and RHP Aaron West had solid albeit unspectacular seasons and LHP Tommy Shirley emerged as a promising arm to watch. The offense (and defense) was excellent from the top of the order to the bottom. I had called for 2B Delino DeShields and OF Andrew Aplin to end their seasons in Corpus, but it was Duffy and Tucker instead. Any number of offensive players, including Aplin, DeShields, OF Brandon Meredith, C Tyler Heineman, C/DH/1B M.P. Cokinos, IF Joe Sclafani, OF Chris Epps and SS Nolan Fontana could easily have been promoted.

Other Factors: Commuters. The long, hot, frequent commutes late in the season seemed to take their toll on the team later in the season resulting in streaky play at times.

Go here to see my full preview of the JetHawks season.

QUAD CITIES

Prediction: "Ah, the prediction. So much depends upon how hardy the pitching staff proves to be over the long run. At the risk of sounding like a Debbie Downer, I'm going to predict that this team will go 72-68 and will fall just shy of getting to the playoffs. If, however, everything goes right, no one gets injured, no one gets overly fatigued, I'll predict 78-62, playoff bound as a wild card and winning the whole dang thing." 

Actual: I wasn't too far off on this one at all. When you look at my best case scenario, I was only off by three wins and was dead on in my prediction that they would win the championship as a wild card. Yay me! My biggest concern coming in to the season was the lack of experience in playing a full season's worth of games. The tandem rotation really helped with that aspect in Quad Cities, keeping the pitchers from fatiguing too badly at the end of the season. 

What went wrong? The offense was a bit lackluster at times as several players struggled to adapt to the league. Injuries to LHP Joe Bircher and LHP Brian Holmes kept them out of the rotation for a large chunk of the season.

What went right? SS Carlos Correa showed why he was a number one overall draft pick with a stellar season both offensively and defensively. 3B Rio Ruiz started slowly, but became a true impact player by the end of the season and into the playoffs. Despite striking out too much, OF Teoscar Hernandez showed that he really has the potential of being a 5-tool player. The pitching overall was tremendous with RHP Lance McCullers and RHP Vincent Velasquez anchoring the rotation. RHP Mike Hauschild made a successful transition to starter while RHP Jordan Jankowski seemed to fare better back in the 'pen and both earned late season promotions to Lancaster, along with Velasquez.

Other Factors: The addition of LHP Josh Hader and OF Danry Vasquez, acquired via trade in late July, provided a late season spark that helped shore up the team leading in to the playoffs.

Go here to see my full preview of the River Bandits season.

OTHER PREDICTIONS

I made a number of other predictions along the way (some were extremely tongue in cheek, but some were serious) and I was all over the map on them. Here are some of the best guesses, some of the worst and some in-between ones as well.

Correct Predictions

• I predict that I will spend the entire season trying to remember the name of any members of the A's roster other than Nate Freiman and Erik Sogard (our Alex's brother). Check
• I predict that I will at some point during the season have to be restrained by friends from getting into a physical altercation with another team's fans, in order of likelihood Red Sox, Rangers and Yankees (just kidding, kind of). Check
• I predict that the CSN Houston deal will not get done this season, resulting in an explosion of subscriptions to MLB.tv and proxy server services. Check
• I predict that both @AstrosCounty and @HouCounterplot will be heavily medicated or institutionalized by the end of the season in response to the stupid things that national sports writers have to say about the Astros. Check
• I predict that a minimum of four minor league teams will make the play-offs and that a minimum of two will bring home championships. On the money
• I predict that the fans who are loyal to the Astros will be rewarded, much as we were rewarded in yesterday's exhibition game, by more and more glimpses of the future. Seeing Mike Foltynewicz absolutely dealing, Domingo Santana crushing the ball, Delino DeShields motoring around the bases, George Springer making dazzling plays in the outfield, Jon Singleton showing great plate discipline and drawing walks, and Carlos Correa scalding line drives through the holes -- seeing more and more of all that as this year progresses and into next year will certainly be my reward. Check - See Cosart, Oberholtzer, Matt Dominguez, etc.
• And, finally, I predict that, after the season is said and done, The Integrity of the Game™ will not have been damaged by anything that the Astros have done or not done, and Houston will be one year closer to being a perennial winner. Check

Note that I also predicted in an interview with another blog that Matt Dominguez would be a breakout impact player for the team this year. You can agree or disagree with that, but I think I was correct.

Partially Correct Predictions

• I predict that Bud (don't call me Chuck) Norris will not be traded this season and that he will transfer his Cardinal killer ways to the Angels. A trade in the off-season? That's another thing. Wrong about the trade, but very right about the Angels. 3-0 with an 0.32 ERA and a 0.964 WHIP in four starts.
• I predict that Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, George Springer, Domingo Santana and Jose Martinez will all make their major league debuts, most as September call-ups. I predict that Jonathan Villar will not make the cut until next year. Two right, four wrong ... yikes!
• I predict that Nick Tropeano will be in Oklahoma City before the end of the year and Mike Foltynewicz will be in Corpus by June. One right, one wrong.

Totally Wrong Predictions

• I predict that Jimmy Paredes will be traded. Nope
• I predict that attendance will continue to plummet, culminating in the Twins game on Tuesday, September 3rd, on which date the players, staff and vendors will outnumber the paying customers. Not quite. This was the 10th lowest attendance at 13,500. The lowest? April 24th against Seattle was only 11,686.
• I predict that we will see Jonathan Singleton in Houston permanently by the trade deadline as Carlos Pena exits stage left. Yeah, that didn't happen.
• I predict that Jordan Lyles will be back when Phil Humber is either traded or released. I predict the same for Dallas Keuchel as it pertains to Erik Bedard. Nope and nope.
• I predict that the Astros will surprise a lot of people, including Astros fans with their aggressiveness and hard-nosed style of play. I don't believe that they will lose 100 again this year or be in last place in the standings, but that's as far as I'm willing to go. Sigh ... not even close.

Not Correct ... Yet

• I predict that Nolan Ryan will be forced out of the Rangers organization as anything but a figurehead and his response will be to throw out the first pitch to Jon Daniels and then get him in a headlock.
• I predict that Bo Porter will stare down Peter Gammons, causing Gammons to spontaneously combust.

And now I will make a final prediction. Next season, I won't make as many predictions.