Home Run, Strikeout and Walk Rates in the Astros System

Astros fans are currently licking their wounds after a very disappointing 2013 season. One of the most disappointing factors to the season was the strikeout rate. Not only did the team set a single season record for most strikeouts, 1B/LF/DH Chris Carter struck out a whopping 212 times and became the third all-time single season leader in the category.

Home run hitters by their very nature tend to be more prone to the strikeout. I was curious about the rate of strikeouts in the major leagues vs. the minor leagues in the Astros system, particularly for those who have the ability to hit the long ball. I looked at every player in the system who had a minimum of 10 home runs for the season and looked at the percentage of their plate appearances that resulted in a home run, a strikeout or a walk. If a player split their time between the major leagues and minor leagues, I included those separately (except for Max Stassi who only had 8 PA at the MLB level). These are the results, sorted from low to high by strikeout rates.



*The majority of the stats for Japhet Amador and Leonardo Heras are from their time in the Mexican League this season.

As you can see from the chart, there are several players with modest power in the Astros minor league system whose strikeout rates are manageable -- M.P. Cokinos, Tyler Heineman, Kike Hernandez, Leo Heras and Rio Ruiz among them. Among these, Ruiz is arguably the most likely to develop more power. In light of this, his good walk rate and manageable strikeout rate are very encouraging.

Then you have a group with more significant power and strikeout rates under 20% -- Japhet Amador, Preston Tucker, Matt Duffy and Brandon Meredith. Meredith boasts a phenomenal walk rate as well.

Following them is a group with varying amounts of power and strikeout rates between 20% and 25% -- Jonathan Meyer, Max Stassi, Erik Castro, Mike Martinez, Teoscar Hernandez and Chris Epps. Castro and Epps, in particular, balance out their strikeouts with good walk rates.

Finally, let's look at three of those with higher strikeout rates in 2013. Jon Singleton's season was not reflective of what he's done in the past. I have included a chart below that shows lifetime stats for all of the players in question. Singleton struck out at a far greater clip than his 22% lifetime rate and I feel certain that he will adjust in 2014. George Springer's strikeout rate in Oklahoma City for the last 62 games of the regular season was 24.4% as compared to a 29.7% rate in the first 73 games of the season. He will likely continue to strike out at around a 25% rate, but if he can give you 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI a year while also drawing walks 12 to 13% of the time, you'll probably take that. Domingo Santana only turned 21 in August so it is not inconceivable that he will improve on his strikeout rate, but with over 2000 career plate appearances under his belt, what you see may be what you get.

You can draw your own conclusions from these charts, but I think that there are several players in the minor league system today who will prove to be capable of providing home run power without being at risk of setting a single season strikeout record.