It Was a Very Big Year For ...

Back in March, I wrote a piece about a few pitchers for whom I declared, "This is going to be a very big year." I would like to revisit what I said back in March and what ultimately happened with each of them. The article, in full, follows with updates.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote this piece about a few position players for whom THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG YEAR. This is something I heard time and again in my recent conversations with John Manuel of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com and others. With the Astros depth increasing, players will need to step up to keep up. For some, it may be a matter of staying healthy. For some, it will be recapturing earlier promise. For some, it will be taking that next step developmentally. Today, let's look at a few pitchers whose ultimate fate in the organization may be either helped or hindered by the year they have.

RHP Paul Clemens
Going into the 2012 season, Paul Clemens was ranked as the number 5 prospect in the Astros system by Baseball America. Coming into the 2013 season, he is ranked at number 27. What happened? Clemens struggled in 20 starts at AAA Oklahoma City (6.73 ERA and 1.741 WHIP) before being demoted to Corpus Christi at the end of the season. Clemens has a great deal of talent and I don't think the 25-year old will be going anywhere even if he  has another subpar year in 2013. However, after seeing him pitch extremely effectively out of the bullpen in Kissimmee during Spring Training, I am convinced that he may eventually get moved in that direction unless he can start showing a more consistent and effective approach in his starts at the higher level.

UPDATE: Clemens made one appearance in Oklahoma City before making his major league debut on April 9th. He was used out of the bullpen with mixed results until struggles in July sent him back to Oklahoma City for a few games. When he got back to Houston, he was used as a starter in his final five appearances compiling a 3.71 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP in those games. As a reliever in Houston, his overall ERA was 6.32 with a 1.447 WHIP. When you back out his six appearances in July (when he was less than effective), that is lowered substantially to a 4.46 ERA and a 1.264 WHIP. None of those numbers are overwhelming one way or the other, but overall it was a decent season for a rookie. One thing I like about Clemens is that he always pitches like he's totally po'd at the world. Somehow, it works for him. Overall, though, I'm still a bit baffled by Clemens and I'm not sure where things will ultimately shake out for him, so I think it is safe to say that 2014 will be another big year for Paul.

RHP Josh Zeid
Josh Zeid is one of those guys that you cannot help but pull for. He is extremely nice and genuine, and he was probably one of the best teammates and biggest cheerleaders on the Hooks team last season. He also has excellent "stuff." What he doesn't have is consistency, but it is my sincerest belief that Zeid's lack of consistency is 99% mental. He needs to master the mental part of the game to get to the next level.

UPDATE: What a difference a season makes! After a solid season with Oklahoma City in which Zeid had a 3.50 ERA and a 1.443 WHIP, he was promoted to Houston where he made his major league debut on July 30th. After a couple of dicey outings early on, Zeid settled in very nicely and allowed only five earned runs in his last 18 appearances (and only one in his last nine outings) to end up with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.373 WHIP after the promotion. More importantly, he wasn't quite as prone to the BIG inning as he had been in 2012 and lowered his batting average allowed from .263 in 2012 to .238 in 2013. I would still like to see him cut back on his walks, but overall it was a good major league debut. When I posited my theory about Zeid's issues being primarily mental, a source told me that I was on to something and that he had seen a huge change in Zeid after his 2012 off-season marriage in that he seemed more relaxed and focused.

LHP Kyle Hallock
Hallock, the 10th round pick in 2011, had a very good freshman season with Tri-City that year but was largely ineffective in his seven appearances at Lexington. He ultimately had surgery to clean out loose bodies in his pitching elbow and was healthy enough to make five rehab appearances at the end of the season. If Hallock proves to be healthy and can recreate his excellent 2011 numbers, the 24-year old could open some eyes this season.

UPDATE: Hallock had a bit of an odd season and was moved five times among four levels. Overall, he did very well early in the season, but suffered in the latter couple of months. I'm only speculating, but I wonder if he was suffering from arm fatigue later in the season since his innings went from 30+ in 2012 (due to the surgery) to 96+ in 2013. Early in the season, Hallock pitched extremely well in Oklahoma City in nine appearances (3.72 ERA and 1.293 WHIP) and he pitched the first five innings of a combined no-hitter in Lancaster in May. But in 12 appearances in July and August at Lancaster and Corpus Christi, he had a whopping 13.35 ERA and a 2.629 WHIP. Whether this was due to fatigue or injury, I don't know, but the vast difference in the halves of the season seem to suggest something of the sort.

RHP Tanner Bushue
Drafted in the second round in 2009, Bushue took a giant step backward in his development in 2012 as he struggled badly at Lexington at the start of the season and was subsequently sent back to extended Spring Training. He ended up back in Greeneville where he made 16 appearances, all but one out of the bullpen, and ended with a 5.65 ERA, a 1.849 WHIP and 10.7 SO/9 at the level. He finished the season very strongly, however, with a 0.57 ERA, 0.894 WHIP and 13.2 SO/9 in August in seven long relief outings. There is still time for Bushue to get back on track as he will only be 22 in June, but coming into his fifth season in the system, he has a lot to prove and he will need to do so quickly and emphatically.

UPDATE: Bushue started off the season well in Tri-City, but did not dominate as he should have playing A-level ball in his fifth professional season. He ended the season with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.082 WHIP in 13 games (seven starts). In a footnote to a story about the Tri-City playoffs, the Albany Times Union reported that Bushue was retiring. And thus appears to end the professional career of the Astros second round pick from 2009 at the ripe old age of 22.

LHP Chris Lee
There are two reasons that the fourth round 2011 pick is probably not in danger of being released if he doesn't have a good season. He won't turn 21 until August and he's a lefty. Lefties always get extra looks. But with the infusion of left-handed pitching into the system by Jeff Luhnow and another draft imminent, he could find himself stuck back in Greeneville for his third season. If he can't find his way out of Greeneville and competing effectively at a higher level by the end of the season, all bets are off. Lee only pitched eight and two-thirds innings in five games in 2012 and had very poor results. He was never officially placed on the disabled list, but did not pitch again after July 26th.

UPDATE: This is my favorite story of the five pitchers profiled. Yes, he was back at Greeneville, but he dominated there. There is no reason to believe that he won't get a shot to play for full season Quad Cities in 2014. And if he pitches anything like he did this season, he should be successful. In 11 games (10 starts), he had a 3.10 ERA and a 1.095 WHIP. I had the opportunity to watch him pitch when I was in Greeneville and I can tell you that he really is an exciting player to watch. He is officially on my radar screen now. My interview with Lee (with copious quotes from Manager Josh Bonifay about Lee) can be found here.

Undoubtedly, 2013 will prove to be a BIG YEAR for many players in the Astros organization. These are just a few that I'm keeping my eye on.