Tuesday, November 5, 2013

It Was a Very Big Year For ...

Back in March, I wrote a piece about a few players for whom I declared, "This is going to be a very big year." I would like to revisit what I said back in March and what ultimately happened with each of them. Last week, I looked at a few pitchers. This week it's position players. The article, in full, follows with updates.

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Over the last couple of weeks, I've talked to John Manuel of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com and others about many of the players in the Astros farm system, both prospect and non-prospect alike. One phrase kept coming up time and time again. "This is going to be a big year for (fill-in-the-blank)." I found myself saying it as well.

With the Astros depth increasing, players will need to step up to keep up. For some, it may be a matter of staying healthy. For some, it will be recapturing earlier promise. For some, it will be taking that next step developmentally. Here are just a few position players for whom THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG YEAR.

1B/DH Chase Davidson
Davidson turned 23 in January and has only played 53 games professionally to date. Davidson was originally drafted in the third round by the Astros in 2008 but did not sign; they re-drafted him in 2011 in the 41st round. In his first season, he hit .327/.417/.630 with 13 doubles, two triples, 11 home runs and 44 RBI in 44 games. He also struck out 53 times. In 2012, he only appeared in nine games with Tri-City in June before disappearing off the radar for the remainder of the year. At 23, he will need to get healthy, stay healthy and move quickly through the system before time starts working against him.

UPDATE: Time is now officially working against Chase Davidson. He will be 24 in January and he has yet to advance beyond Low A. Davidson only appeared in 10 games for Quad Cities this season, the last of which was on April 23rd. Presumably, he was injured (although I don't know that for a fact). In three professional seasons, Davidson has only played in 63 games. In his 10 games this season (42 at-bats), he hit .238/.289/.381 with three doubles, one home run and five RBI. He walked twice and struck out 21 times in those 10 games. To put it bluntly, I find it increasingly difficult to find a path forward for Mr. Davidson.

SS Jonathan Villar
Yes, Villar has all of the tools but he has yet to put them all together consistently. He needs to show more focus defensively. He has a tendency to speed up the game and make mental errors in the field. Prior to breaking his hand in July, Villar's bat did show signs of coming around but he lost valuable developmental time. Villar won't turn 22 until May so he still has plenty of time to put it all together, but if he doesn't take that next step forward, he could find himself jockeying for position in the Astros depth charts.

UPDATE: Villar spent the first 91 games of the season with Oklahoma City where he definitely made inroads with the bat, hitting .277/.341/.442 with 16 doubles, eight triples, eight home runs, 51 RBI and 31 stolen bases. He then made his major league debut on July 22nd, and in 58 games in Houston, he hit .243/.321/.319 with nine doubles, two triples, one home run, eight RBI, 18 stolen bases and one spectacularly embarrassing baserunning move. But to his credit, he also did this. Overall, I feel as though his baserunning and his bat lived up to expectations at the major league level, but there were still signs that Villar's internal defensive clock needs adjustment. His 16 errors tied for fifth in the American League, despite playing in significantly fewer games than the other category leaders. And before you SABR-types jump on me for using errors, I looked up his UZR for the Astros and it was -8.1 which isn't exactly great either (albeit based on a relatively small sample size). With all that said, personally I thought that he looked better in the field than he did when I saw him in Corpus Christi last season. Ultimately, if he can be more consistent defensively, it will go a long way towards his realization of sustained success at the major league level.

SS Jio Mier
Speaking of which, Jio Mier could be the one to challenge Villar, but he has to stay healthy and he has to continue the progress he made last season (before  a bad hamstring injury) and later in the Arizona Fall League. He missed a large chunk of the 2012 season due to the injury, but it appeared that he was finally putting things together at the plate, hitting .292/.396/.409 at Lancaster and .297/.333/.422 in the Arizona Fall League. If Villar falters and Mier continues his progress and stays healthy, things could get interesting. Mier won't be 23 until August. Did I mention that he really needs to stay healthy?

UPDATE: Jio, Jio, Jio. What can I say? I really like Jio. I'm really rooting for him, but his bat was a definite disappointment in the 2013 season. Everyone I spoke with when I was in Corpus Christi this summer simply raved about Jio's defense and that's precisely what I saw on the field, but what I saw in the batter's box was discouraging. In 104 games, he hit .194/.293/.265 with 10 doubles and five home runs. As far as I know, he was healthy all season so his lack of production can't be blamed on that. I refuse to give up on Jio, but he is going to have to make very big strides at the plate in the coming season because, frankly, there is a great deal of talent coming up through the system looking to challenge him.

C/OF Mike Kvasnicka
I'm not even sure where to start with Kvasnicka. His development seems to have been stunted by his moves from catcher to third base back to catcher and now, apparently, to right field. Kvasnicka had a horrible start to his 2012 season, but seemed to have gotten into a groove at the plate about the time he was moved to right field. He also found his home run stroke, tripling his home run output from prior years. But the fact remains that he is 24 years old and hasn't gotten above Low A yet. He will need to come to Spring Training prepared to show that he belongs and will need to contribute immediately wherever he is placed.

UPDATE: Well, Kvasnicka did have a very big year ... for another team. Traded to the Twins for RHP Gonzalo Sanudo in March, Kvasnicka didn't make his season debut until June, reportedly due to a wrist injury, but played extremely well in 69 games for the High A Fort Myer Miracles, hitting .282/.341/.460 with 13 doubles, two triples, nine home runs and 40 RBI. He played most of his games, by the way, in right field.

1B/DH Telvin Nash
Telvin Nash just turned 22 last month. He needs to do two things. He needs to replicate his home run power outside the hitter-friendly confines of Lancaster and he needs to cut down on the strikeouts. If Nash is promoted to AA this season, I think he will find that the more advanced pitchers will take advantage of the holes in his swing. He will have to find a way to adjust. The recent news that Nash lost 30 pounds during the offseason tells me that he is highly motivated. That is encouraging.

UPDATE: Nash gets an incomplete for the season, but the news is mostly positive. He last played on July 18th and was ultimately placed on the DL for the remainder of the season. Since he didn't advance beyond Lancaster, we still don't know whether or not his power will translate away from The Hangar. But one thing he did accomplish was cutting down on his strikeouts. Nash struck out in over 44% of his plate appearances in 2012. He cut that down to approximately 34.5% in 2013. Still a lot of strikeouts, but a huge improvement! And he improved his walk rate as well. His improved discipline at the plate didn't hamper his home run production so that is encouraging as well. In 62 games, he hit .246/.357/.500 (as compared to .224/.316/.494 in 2012) with 10 doubles, 16 home runs and 48 RBI.

1 comment:

  1. In my opinion the Astros wasted Kvasnicka. He begged them to play outfield. He hit so much better, but the org and he turned sour on each other and it was a good move on both parties' parts to make the trade. Good liuck to Mike and Sanudo. In other news, Villar had one hit in winter ball yesterday and got picked off of 1B. 1oldpro

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