The wonderful thing about the New Year is that it represents a slate wiped clean. It doesn’t matter what happened in the prior year. You feel that you have the power within you to make the New Year a better year than the last in one way or another, to make yourself better in one way or another. But we’re often very unrealistic in our resolutions and that sets us up for failure. Personally, I could resolve to floss every single day, but that would make me a liar within a week, and my dentist will attest to that.
But I think New Year’s Day and the idea of the blank slate particularly resonates with baseball fans. Because of the schedule, enough time has passed that the wounds from a rough season have started to heal and the hope represented by Spring Training beckons in the not so distant future. We have already passed the Baseball Solstice.
One of my followers on twitter asked me for my New Year’s prediction on how many more games the Astros will win in 2014 than they won in 2013. I chuckled and said, “Ask me after Spring Training. We don’t even know who will be on the team on Opening Day!” I will probably pull a prediction out of some bodily orifice at some point before the season starts, but there are so many variables going in to this season, that one can really only prognosticate at one’s own peril.
GM Jeff Luhnow has been working over the offseason to shore up a few holes, in particular the bullpen that blew a league high 29 saves in 2013. On paper, I really like what he’s done, but in reality, we all know that one injury, one career worst season can derail the most solid of plans. Luhnow’s resolution to have a better bullpen in 2014 is dependent on the whim of the baseball gods.
Things tend to happen, in baseball as in life, in their own way and in their own time. As one player fails, another succeeds. And it isn’t always the player you expect. Many prospect followers had written off Brett Oberholtzer before he put up an ERA of 2.76 and a 1.102 WHIP in 13 appearances (2.24 ERA and 1.057 in 10 starts) in his rookie season.
And then there is Josh Zeid. I first “talked” to Josh in an email interview in March 2012 and then I met him in Corpus Christi later that year. I loved talking to Josh and I loved watching him pitch. (His enthusiasm is infectious and he is seriously one of the biggest cheerleaders on every team he’s ever been on.) But his results on the mound in 2012 had me shaking my head at times. I knew he had the talent, but his inconsistency had me worried. Fast forward to 2013 and he was one of the most consistent bullpen arms in Oklahoma City and earned his way to a July call up to Houston where he not only survived, but thrived. Did anyone seriously anticipate all of that prior to the 2013 season?
My point, and yes there is one, is sometimes it’s just best to sit back and enjoy the journey. I trust that between the strength of the Astros farm system and the offseason moves made by Luhnow, we will see improvement on the field in 2014. How much? I truly believe that even Sig Mejdal and his Decision Scientists can’t really quantify the improvements because, you know, life and stuff happens. [Note to self: Try to trademark the band name “Sig and the Decision Scientists.”]
But that’s one of the reasons that I love looking at the lower levels of the farm system. Even the most talented of prospects sometimes flame out. The beauty of having depth in the system is that we get to watch an Andrew Aplin or a Brett Phillips or a Kyle Westwood or a Gonzalo Sanudo (or many, many others) and know that there are reserves on the way if the current crop of talent stumbles. There will be heroes from unexpected quarters over the next few years.
We, as Astros fans, should definitely expect a better year in 2014 than we saw in 2013, but there are no guarantees and no magic formulas. Baseball, much as life, is messy. Sometimes you win; sometimes you lose. Sometimes you catch a break; sometimes you don’t. But as long as you’re headed in the right direction, it’s OK. Let’s be realistic in our expectations and maybe, just maybe, we’ll be pleasantly surprised in 2014.
But I think New Year’s Day and the idea of the blank slate particularly resonates with baseball fans. Because of the schedule, enough time has passed that the wounds from a rough season have started to heal and the hope represented by Spring Training beckons in the not so distant future. We have already passed the Baseball Solstice.
One of my followers on twitter asked me for my New Year’s prediction on how many more games the Astros will win in 2014 than they won in 2013. I chuckled and said, “Ask me after Spring Training. We don’t even know who will be on the team on Opening Day!” I will probably pull a prediction out of some bodily orifice at some point before the season starts, but there are so many variables going in to this season, that one can really only prognosticate at one’s own peril.
GM Jeff Luhnow has been working over the offseason to shore up a few holes, in particular the bullpen that blew a league high 29 saves in 2013. On paper, I really like what he’s done, but in reality, we all know that one injury, one career worst season can derail the most solid of plans. Luhnow’s resolution to have a better bullpen in 2014 is dependent on the whim of the baseball gods.
Things tend to happen, in baseball as in life, in their own way and in their own time. As one player fails, another succeeds. And it isn’t always the player you expect. Many prospect followers had written off Brett Oberholtzer before he put up an ERA of 2.76 and a 1.102 WHIP in 13 appearances (2.24 ERA and 1.057 in 10 starts) in his rookie season.
And then there is Josh Zeid. I first “talked” to Josh in an email interview in March 2012 and then I met him in Corpus Christi later that year. I loved talking to Josh and I loved watching him pitch. (His enthusiasm is infectious and he is seriously one of the biggest cheerleaders on every team he’s ever been on.) But his results on the mound in 2012 had me shaking my head at times. I knew he had the talent, but his inconsistency had me worried. Fast forward to 2013 and he was one of the most consistent bullpen arms in Oklahoma City and earned his way to a July call up to Houston where he not only survived, but thrived. Did anyone seriously anticipate all of that prior to the 2013 season?
My point, and yes there is one, is sometimes it’s just best to sit back and enjoy the journey. I trust that between the strength of the Astros farm system and the offseason moves made by Luhnow, we will see improvement on the field in 2014. How much? I truly believe that even Sig Mejdal and his Decision Scientists can’t really quantify the improvements because, you know, life and stuff happens. [Note to self: Try to trademark the band name “Sig and the Decision Scientists.”]
But that’s one of the reasons that I love looking at the lower levels of the farm system. Even the most talented of prospects sometimes flame out. The beauty of having depth in the system is that we get to watch an Andrew Aplin or a Brett Phillips or a Kyle Westwood or a Gonzalo Sanudo (or many, many others) and know that there are reserves on the way if the current crop of talent stumbles. There will be heroes from unexpected quarters over the next few years.
We, as Astros fans, should definitely expect a better year in 2014 than we saw in 2013, but there are no guarantees and no magic formulas. Baseball, much as life, is messy. Sometimes you win; sometimes you lose. Sometimes you catch a break; sometimes you don’t. But as long as you’re headed in the right direction, it’s OK. Let’s be realistic in our expectations and maybe, just maybe, we’ll be pleasantly surprised in 2014.
Personally, it is with great reluctance that I bid adieu to
2013. It was a year of wonderful things for me. A year in which I made many,
many new friends and got to know the old friends just a little bit better. A
year in which I found great happiness in the most unexpected of places. A year
which taught me that you’re never too old to learn new things and to follow new
dreams.
But forge ahead into the New Year, I will. And I will do so
with the knowledge that new adventures await, that many of the strangers from
yesterday will become the friends of tomorrow. I will leave you with one
piece of advice. Follow your passion. Follow your dreams. You never know where
they will lead, but I guarantee it’s one helluva fun ride getting there.
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