Showing posts with label Farm System. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Farm System. Show all posts

Friday, March 6, 2015

Reason #10 To Buy My Book: Instant Hipster Cred

Reason #10 in the Top 10 Reasons to buy the 2015 Houston Farm System Handbook: Instant Hipster Cred! John Burgess explains in his foreword to the book.

FOREWORD
by John Burgess

As I walk around city streets and flip through 120 worthless television channels, I've noticed a certain trend with America's youth. Bow ties, suspenders, thick plastic-framed glasses, and Chuck Taylors are all in style. Basically, the same style that would have gotten you an atomic wedgie while I was in school, is now being worn by the "cool kids!" It is actually cool to be a nerd these days.

I say all of this because there is no nerdier franchise in professional sports than the Houston Astros. It's only a matter of time before Minute Maid Park changes its name to Books-A-Million Park and adds an Internet cafe and book nook just beyond Tal's Hill in centerfield. Since taking over as the General Manager of the Houston Astros in December of 2011, mega dork Jeff Luhnow has surrounded himself with like-minded geniuses in the front office, and fully stocked the minor league system with prospects that we can all nerd-out to.

Some of the best prospects in all of baseball are shooting up through the Astros system, and are nearing the time they'll be called to join the major league roster. When that happens, you can bet that all of those trendy wonks will be filling the seats of Minute Maid Park. Astros fans will no longer be the victims of wedgies, swirlies, and name-calling. We will be the "cool kids." The Screech Powerses will become the Zach Morrises!

If you'd like to be ahead of the curve so that you can consider yourself an Astros Hipster, or if you are already an avid Astros fan that's just looking for a great minor league resource, then you are starting in the right place. No one knows the Houston Astros farm system better than the "Mother of the Minors," Jayne Hansen. Jayne is the Creator, Editor, and Senior Staff Writer for the popular "What the Heck, Bobby?" blogsite. Her blog is the go-to source for keeping fans up-to-date on all of the happenings on the Astros' farm.

There is not a single member of the dweeby, Houston Front Office that doesn't know Jayne personally (which makes her a pretty nice person to run around with at the ballpark). In fact, a majority of the Astros bigwigs will admit to visiting "What The Heck, Bobby?" on a regular basis. You can find Jayne roaming the Club area at Minute Maid Park on most game nights. If she's not there, it's likely because she's traveling around the country, watching the minor league guys and recording outstanding interviews with them between games.

I originally "met" Jayne through Twitter. I was a huge fan of her blog and an even bigger fan of her Twitter personality, so when I had the opportunity to start blogging myself I made sure to reach out to her for advice. Since then, we have met several times at Astros games and have struck up a genuine friendship (though she may still rather call it more of an acquaintanceship). Jayne is one of the most quick-witted and intelligent people that I have ever met, and her passion for baseball runs beyond that of even the most devoted fans.

I am honored to know Jayne, and even more honored to write this Foreword for her. I look forward to the day that I can buy her and every other geeky 'stros fan a celebratory beer following Houston's first baseball World Championship. Judging from this book, it'll happen much more quickly that you'd think!

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Please consider purchasing my new e-book, the 2015 Houston Farm System Handbook. The book can be read immediately on your kindle, and can also be read on virtually any computer, tablet or phone by downloading the Free Kindle Reading App from Amazon or from the iTunes store. And if you have an Amazon account, no need to download anything ... just read it on the Kindle Cloud Reader at read.amazon.com.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Astros Top Prospect and Farm System Rankings - UPDATED

Prospect Rankings have been coming out fast and furious and there will be more to come over the next few weeks as Baseball America releases its Top 100 list and Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com releases his Top 20 pre-season list for each organization. I will also expect to see more Farm System Rankings come out in the not-so-distant future. I will update this post as rankings are released and come up with a Consensus Top Prospect List when all the information is available.

Here's what we have so far:

ORGANIZATIONAL TOP PROSPECT LISTS

Baseball America's Organizational Top 10 (1/21/14)
1. SS Carlos Correa
2. OF George Springer
3. RHP Mark Appel
4. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5. RHP Lance McCullers
6. RHP Vincent Velasquez
7. 1B Jon Singleton
8. OF Domingo Santana
9. RHP Michael Feliz
10. RHP Asher Wojciechowski

UPDATE: I got the BA Prospect Handbook in the mail today so I can now reveal their rankings of #11-31 in the Astros system.

11. 3B Rio Ruiz
12. C Max Stassi
13. OF Delino DeShields
14. LHP Josh Hader
15. RHP Andrew Thurman
16. OF Teoscar Hernandez
17. LHP Kevin Chapman
18. RHP Nick Tropeano
19. OF Andrew Aplin
20. SS Nolan Fontana
21. RHP Jake Buchanan
22. RHP Kyle Smith
23. LHP Kent Emanuel
24. LHP Chris Lee
25. OF Leo Heras
26. RHP Gonzalo Sanudo
27. RHP Jandel Gustave
28. LHP Reymin Guduan
29. OF Danry Vasquez
30. OF Brett Phillips
31. 2B/SS Ronald Torreyes

Baseball Prospectus' Organizational Top 10 (11/4/13)
1. SS Carlos Correa
2. OF George Springer
3. RHP Mark Appel
4. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5. 1B Jon Singleton
6. RHP Vincent Velasquez
7. RHP Lance McCullers
8. OF Domingo Santana
9. 3B Rio Ruiz
10. RHP Michael Feliz

Keith Law's ESPN.com Organizational Top 10 (1/30/14) via House of Houston
1. SS Carlos Correa
2. RHP Mark Appel
3. OF George Springer
4. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5. 1B Jon Singleton
6. OF Delino DeShields
7. RHP Vincent Velasquez
8. RHP Lance McCullers
9. 3B Rio Ruiz
10. RHP Michael Feliz

John Sickels (minorleagueball.com) Organizational Top 20 (2/18/14)
1. SS Carlos Correa
2. OF George Springer
3. RHP Mark Appel
4. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5. RHP Lance McCullers
6. RHP Vincent Velasquez
7. OF Domingo Santana
8. RHP Michael Feliz
9. 1B Jon Singleton
10. 3B Rio Ruiz
11. OF Delino DeShields
12. RHP Asher Wojciechowski
13. C Max Stassi
14. RHP Nick Tropeano
15. LHP Josh Hader
16. RHP Kyle Smith
17. RHP Andrew Thurman
18. OF Danry Vasquez
19. OF Teoscar Hernandez
20. SS Nolan Fontana

Jonathan Mayo's MLB.com Organizational Top 20 (coming in March)

OVERALL TOP PROSPECT LISTS

Baseball Prospectus' Top 101 Prospect List (1/27/14)
5. SS Carlos Correa
20. OF George Springer
21. RHP Mark Appel
43. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
57. 1B Jon Singleton

Jonathan Mayo's MLB.com Top 100 (1/23/14)
8. SS Carlos Correa (#3 on SS list)
17. RHP Mark Appel (#6 on RHP list)
21. OF George Springer (#5 on OF list)
50. 1B Jon Singleton (#1 on 1B list)
52. RHP Lance McCullers
54. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
66. OF Delino DeShields

Here's my take on how the 2014 list compared to 2013, as well as how the Astros fared vs. the other AL West teams.

Keith Law's ESPN.com Top 100 Prospect List (1/29/14) via Astros County
4. SS Carlos Correa
11. RHP Mark Appel
19. OF George Springer
70. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
78. 1B Jon Singleton
80. OF Delino DeShields
82. RHP Vincent Velasquez

Fan Graphs Top 100 Prospect List (2/11/14)
9. SS Carlos Correa (#4 on SS list)
14. OF George Springer (#3 on OF list)
26. RHP Mark Appel (#14 on Pitcher list)
55. 1B Jon Singleton (#1 on 1B list)
57. RHP Mike Foltynewicz (#27 on Pitcher list)
67. RHP Vincent Velasquez (#30 on Pitcher list)

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect List (2/19/14)
7. SS Carlos Correa
18. OF George Springer
39. Mark Appel
59. Mike Foltynewicz
77. Lance McCullers
82. Jon Singleton

FARM SYSTEM RANKINGS

Keith Law's ESPN.com Farm System Rankings (1/28/14) via Astros County
2014 - Ranked 1st
2013 - Ranked 4th
2012 - Ranked 27th

Baseball America's Farm System Rankings (coming out in the Prospect Handbook)
However, they had this take in October that ranked the Astros system #2.
2014 - Ranked 5th in the new Prospect Handbook
2013 - Ranked 9th
2012 - Ranked 17th

John Sickels (minorleagueball.com) Farm System Rankings (coming ?)
2014 -
2013 - Ranked 10th
2012 - Ranked 25th

Baseball Prospectus' Farm System Rankings
2014 - Ranked 5th
2013 - Ranked 9th
2012 - Ranked 26th

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Astros Top Prospect and Farm System Rankings

Prospect Rankings have been coming out fast and furious and there will be more to come over the next few weeks as Baseball America releases its Top 100 list and Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com releases his Top 20 pre-season list for each organization. I will also expect to see more Farm System Rankings come out in the not-so-distant future. I will update this post as rankings are released and come up with a Consensus Top Prospect List when all the information is available.

Here's what we have so far:

ORGANIZATIONAL TOP PROSPECT LISTS

Baseball America's Organizational Top 10 (1/21/14)
1. SS Carlos Correa
2. OF George Springer
3. RHP Mark Appel
4. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5. RHP Lance McCullers
6. RHP Vincent Velasquez
7. 1B Jon Singleton
8. OF Domingo Santana
9. RHP Michael Feliz
10. RHP Asher Wojciechowski

Baseball Prospectus' Organizational Top 10 (11/4/13)
1. SS Carlos Correa
2. OF George Springer
3. RHP Mark Appel
4. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5. 1B Jon Singleton
6. RHP Vincent Velasquez
7. RHP Lance McCullers
8. OF Domingo Santana
9. 3B Rio Ruiz
10. RHP Michael Feliz

Keith Law's ESPN.com Organizational Top 10 (1/30/14) via House of Houston
1. SS Carlos Correa
2. RHP Mark Appel
3. OF George Springer
4. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5. 1B Jon Singleton
6. OF Delino DeShields
7. RHP Vincent Velasquez
8. RHP Lance McCullers
9. 3B Rio Ruiz
10. RHP Michael Feliz

John Sickels (minorleagueball.com) Organizational Top 20 (coming soon)

Jonathan Mayo's MLB.com Organizational Top 20 (coming soon)

OVERALL TOP PROSPECT LISTS

Baseball Prospectus' Top 101 Prospect List (1/27/14)
5. SS Carlos Correa
20. OF George Springer
21. RHP Mark Appel
43. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
57. 1B Jon Singleton

Jonathan Mayo's MLB.com Top 100 (1/23/14)
8. SS Carlos Correa (#3 on SS list)
17. RHP Mark Appel (#6 on RHP list)
21. OF George Springer (#5 on OF list)
50. 1B Jon Singleton (#1 on 1B list)
52. RHP Lance McCullers
54. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
66. OF Delino DeShields

Here's my take on how the 2014 list compared to 2013, as well as how the Astros fared vs. the other AL West teams.

Keith Law's ESPN.com Top 100 Prospect List (1/29/14) via Astros County
4. SS Carlos Correa
11. RHP Mark Appel
19. OF George Springer
70. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
78. 1B Jon Singleton
80. OF Delino DeShields
82. RHP Vincent Velasquez

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect List (coming soon)

FARM SYSTEM RANKINGS

Keith Law's ESPN.com Farm System Rankings (1/28/14) via Astros County
2014 - Ranked 1st
2013 - Ranked 4th
2012 - Ranked 27th

Baseball America's Farm System Rankings (coming out in the Prospect Handbook)
However, they had this take in October that ranked the Astros system #2.
2014 -
2013 - Ranked 9th
2012 - Ranked 17th

John Sickels (minorleagueball.com) Farm System Rankings (coming ?)
2014 -
2013 - Ranked 10th
2012 - Ranked 25th

Baseball Prospectus' Farm System Rankings (came out late March in 2013)
2014 -
2013 - Ranked 9th
2012 - Ranked 26th

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

A Conversation with Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow, Part 2

In Part 1 of my conversation with Jeff Luhnow, we discussed the state of the Astros farm system, some Rule 5 considerations, the "piggyback" rotation and the makeup of the Astros bullpen. Today, we continue by talking about the Astros Venezuelan presence, a few minor league standouts, one pitcher who appears to have escaped from "Weiland Island" and more.

Jeff Luhnow - Fan Fest 2013
Photo by Jayne Hansen

JH: In making your rounds of the minor league ballparks during the past season, were there any players that stood out? Maybe someone who wasn’t on your radar previously?

JL: As a General Manager, you spend a lot more time with the big league team than you do with the minor leagues. I read the reports every day, but [it’s helpful] when you get a chance to go out there and see these players in person. You have to take into account that they might have played really well for you while you were there, and who knows if that’s the true player -- the coaches know them a lot better, but I’d say a couple of guys, for me, were standouts at least when I was out watching them. [CF Andrew] Aplin. I liked him the year before, but I think this year watching him in the games that I watched him … defensively, I tried to get my mind around the fact that some of the plays he made were the plays that Gold Glove centerfielders make. That’s the caliber of defense that I saw. It was a limited look, but I was pretty excited about that. [RHP Brady] Rodgers. The fact that he was in that league all year and performed as well as he was able to perform was pretty exciting and I think he will get a chance to prove himself next year in AA.

I also have to say just having come back from Venezuela, [RHP Jamaine] Cotton, I saw him a couple of times this year, but watching him just recently last week in Venezuela … if you look at the numbers he put up at the very end of the season last year, combine that with the stuff right now in Venezuela, I think he’s moved himself pretty far up the list.

The catcher at Quad Cities, [Roberto] Peña could be our best defensive catcher of all. Outstanding looking young man. That team was loaded obviously but I think Peña is sort of an unsung hero on that team because a lot of attention went to the third baseman [Rio Ruiz] and shortstop [Carlos Correa] and centerfielder [Teoscar Hernandez] and so forth.

Tri-City … the pitching in Tri-City. Everybody is going to be talking about [RHP Michael] Feliz. Feliz had a great year and deserves whatever accolades are coming his way. He’s a pretty exciting player, but [RHP Kyle] Westwood is a guy that hasn’t received a lot of attention, but did a really nice job when I was there. Lot of confidence. Looks like he’ll be able to succeed at the higher levels. I really like [CF James] Ramsay out of the draft. He played well. These guys really did a heck of a job. There were a lot of good players from this year’s draft that were exciting.

JH: I know that you and [Director of International] Oz Ocampo have been working to increase the Astros’ presence in Venezuela. How is that going?

JL: It’s something that we’re going to continually evaluate. Oz has done a terrific job of spending a lot of time in Venezuela and that’s the first step, just going down there. Everybody has scouts down there, but when I went down there last year, we met with a lot of the trainers, agents that work down there and what they said is, “Everybody scouts down here, but first of all, you’re the first General Manager to come down here in quite some time, and second of all, a lot of the international directors don’t spend a ton of time down here and when they do come down, they come down for a few days and they won’t travel around the country. So, certain areas of the country, we have to bring the players to you and they may have really long travel schedules and be exhausted by the time they get here and you don’t always see them in the best light.”

So we’ve done a concerted effort to get down there more and both Oz and Mark Russo have spent a significant amount of time in Venezuela in the past year and I think that’s a big step. The Astros had terrific results in Venezuela, but we feel like we haven’t been as good as we have in the past and so part of it is having Oz and Mark spend more time down there, both my visits the last two years and working together with whatever partners we have down there. We just established a partnership with one of the minor league teams to be able to do more than [just have them play] there because during the winter, like right now, having a little more control over how our players are getting developed is an important element for succeeding. So we set up a team with La Guaira in the Paralela League and we’re going to continue to explore opportunities from both the player evaluation standpoint as well as the player development standpoint.

JH: I should probably know this, but I don’t. Who is Mark Russo?

JL: He’s our international crosschecker. He’s probably one of the most important people in our organization and no one’s ever heard of him. He’s terrific though. He travels 250 days a year, internationally, and he spends a lot of time evaluating players and [looking at] 15 and 16 year old players in the Dominican and Venezuela and all over Central America, Asia, etc.

JH: Whose idea was it to send American players to the Dominican Republic and Venezuela this winter? I thought it was a terrific idea.

JL: Allen [Assistant Director of Player Development Allen Rowin] and Q [Director of Player Development Quinton McCracken]. I talked to [Jamaine] Cotton last week when I was down there and he’s really benefiting from the experience. Not only is he getting to pitch in a good league, but just the whole cultural experience of living with the other players down there, being in that country and so forth. The other player that really opened eyes was [OF Brett] Phillips. He really opened eyes. For a guy that basically played for a year in the Appalachian League, they were seriously considering, and had he not come back [for personal reasons], I think he would have been on the big league team down there. When we sent him to Quad Cities, he was only supposed to go there for a couple of weeks to kind of fill in. They loved him so much, they didn’t want to let him go. The plan was for him to go to the Appy League all along [since] he was in the Gulf Coast League last year, [but the Quad Cities crew] said, “No, no, leave him here with us. We’ll take care of him.”

JH: Did anyone stand out during your visit to the Dominican Republic this winter? There are some very interesting pitchers down there.

JL: We had about two or three days of games, but we put a lot of trial players into the games so I [only] saw a couple of our guys, but [we are very] excited about what the guys have been able to do down there in terms of both scouting and continuing to develop the pitchers.

I also went to instructional [league in Florida] and I saw guys like [LHP Reymin] Guduan and [RHP Jandel] Gustave and it’s hard not to get pretty excited when you see those guys. [Note: Both Guduan and Gustave routinely flirt with 100 mph fastballs.]

Junior Garcia … I just saw him in the Paralela League a couple of days ago. He’s a pretty exciting left-handed pitcher. There’s a whole bunch of them that we’re excited about for sure.

JH: Now for some random questions. Do you have a philosophy about what you’re looking for in a DH, or is that evolving? In other words, would you prefer to have a true DESIGNATED hitter or do you like to be able to mix and match?

JL: It’s evolving and I think it depends. [Chris] Carter, I think, can be a good DH. He can also be a good first baseman so it depends on where [Brett] Wallace fits in the equation or anybody else we sign. And we were pretty aggressive pursuing a Cuban free agent this year [1B Jose Abreu] and we didn’t land him, but had we landed him, he would have been our first baseman and that would have naturally moved Carter and Wallace more towards DH and outfield, third base, whatever. I think it’s one of those things you kind of evaluate year by year. If you end up signing a DH only on a multi-year deal, you limit yourself somewhat because those at-bats can be useful for rotating players and giving people rest. I think it will evolve. It kind of depends on your roster and how you want to produce runs and where those guys can play defensively.

JH: I know that player injuries and the status of their rehab are delicate subjects, but can you tell us anything about any of the pitchers that missed the 2013 season?

JL: [RHP] Alex White is very much on schedule. You have Tommy John, you have rehab and you come back and I truly believe Alex White is going to be a big part of our team this year at the big league level. His rehab has been progressing very, very well. There’s a reason why we traded for him and unfortunately we lost a year, but I think that he’s going to be a contributor. We may choose to bring him along slowly in terms of having him be in the bullpen instead of rotation, but he made our team last year. I think there’s a good chance he’ll make our team again this year and if not, he’ll certainly spend a large part of the season up here. I’m excited about that.

JH: You know I have to ask about [OF] George Springer. Is Super Two status a factor or the factor in whether or not Springer makes the team out of Spring Training?

JL: There’s a [whole] process about what makes sense for the player and for the team and what’s the right time so there are no fast rules about it, there are no expectations. He’s going to come to Spring Training and we’re going to evaluate him and evaluate the rest of the team and make a decision. But there are no guarantees he’s going to be on the team opening day. There are no guarantees he won’t be on the team. Really, it’s still to be determined.

JH: One final thing. Please tell me that the Astros are NOT going to get the first draft pick in 2015.

JL: We certainly do not want to have the first pick again next year.

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I keep going back to something that Luhnow said when I talked with him around this time last year.
It seems like sometimes in other sports [when] you rebuild, you’re bad for a year or you’re bad for two years, and then you’re back. In baseball, it’s like turning a battleship around. It’s not something that you can really do very quickly.
Forgive me a cheesy metaphor, but when Jeff Luhnow took over the helm of the U.S.S. Astros two years ago, she had hit a mine, had holes in the hull and was listing badly. She is now heading out to sea, repaired and painted with a full complement of young able-bodied sailors at the ready. The journey is just starting, but all hands are on deck with the same destination as their common goal, and Captain Luhnow has the map.

Thank you for your time and generosity, Captain.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

A Conversation with Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow, Part 1

I wouldn’t really characterize this as an interview with Jeff Luhnow, but rather as a conversation with him. Everyone I know who has met him for the first time is struck by how easy it is to talk with him. He is approachable, self-effacing, good-humored and highly intelligent. And when he talks to you, you never get the feeling that there is someplace he’d rather be.

When we spoke last week, we touched on a wide variety of topics, but we started with the one thing that we discussed last year about this time and which we intend to turn into an annual event.

Jeff Luhnow - Fan Fest 2013
Photo by Jayne Hansen

JH: First things first. I won’t ask you to give a State of the Union address, but tell me what you think about the State of the Astros Farm System.

JL: I think we’re in great shape. Most of the moves that we made over the past two years really have been looking at addressing our future talent and I think a lot of the acquisitions we made, a lot of the trades we made, a lot of the moves we’ve made, have been looking at the pipeline as a whole, trying to plug holes and just trying to increase the quality and the quantity of prospects up and down. And we also had a couple of drafts where we’ve picked at the top and a couple of international signing periods where we’ve been able to deploy some resources, and I think all of that has led to a system that’s in pretty good shape. We’re very healthy right now. Obviously, the proof is in the pudding. Whether or not these players get to the big leagues and perform at a level that helps us accomplish our goals in Houston is ultimately what it’s all about, but as far as all the metrics we have that we can look at, expectations for the players, scouting reports, win-loss records in the minor leagues, prospect rankings, etc., we feel very good about where the system is today.

JH: Two of the areas that you worked to address over the last couple of years were catching and left-handed pitching. Are there any other areas that you feel need to be addressed in terms of depth?

JL: It’s a constant ebb and flow throughout the system and I think we did address the catching depth. We saw that as a potential problem going forward and I think right now, we’re in good shape with three good looking young prospects at the AAA level [Max Stassi, Carlos Perez and Rene Garcia] who project to be major leaguers down the road and behind them, there’s at least one at every level behind them which we like.

Left-handed pitching is always going to be an area we’re going to need to focus on and quite frankly, one of the reasons we added [LHP Luis] Cruz [to the 40-man roster is that] we certainly don’t want to take a chance on losing left-handed starting pitching prospects. So I think we’ve done a nice job of adding depth there. We certainly can use some more left-handed starters throughout the system so that’s something that we’re going to be looking at.

JH: I was a little surprised that Cruz was protected from the Rule 5 Draft because he had spent very little time at AA, but I’ll admit I was pleased with his addition to the 40-man roster.

JL: I think, from our perspective, the way we think about it is we understand the probabilities of different players getting taken and how much time they spent at different levels and all that, but really, the question you have to ask yourself is how are you going to feel on Thursday, December 12th at 10:00 a.m. if that player is taken? Obviously you’ll regret any player getting taken you think has value, but that’s really, at the end of the day, the gut check for us. How are we going to feel if we left that player unprotected and they get taken? Are we going to regret it?

JH: We touched on this last year, but I think it bears repeating. It’s not all that easy to squirrel away a Rule 5 pick on your 25-man roster for a full season. A maximum of only about 8 or 9 players have stuck with the drafting team over the last few years. Realistically, there aren’t that many players who do stick for a full season.

JL: There aren’t, but two of the guys we took two years ago, [SS] Marwin [Gonzalez] and [RHP] Rhiner [Cruz] both stuck and then last year [RHP Josh] Fields and the first baseman [Nate Freiman], although the first baseman went to another team, they both stuck. So we’re responsible for four of those selections which is a pretty big percentage. It’s one of those things that keeping a player on your 25-man roster that another team didn’t seem to think needed to be protected on their 40-man roster, it’s just very difficult to do. And I think that’s part of the issue, but having said that, when you do lose somebody and they’re gone, there’s a reason why these players get selected and so, it’s a low probability event, but it’s a high severity event in that you may lose a pitcher, position player that might end up being a very good player. I mean everybody fears losing a Johan Santana in the Rule 5 draft because it’s happened before.

JH: I talked with [Astros Baseball Analyst] Mike Fast briefly about last year’s Rule 5 Draft and he told me that the Astros were definitely concerned that they might lose Marc Krauss, but ultimately, Fast was told that, although other teams were definitely interested in Krauss, they couldn’t make room on their rosters.

JL: There are certain positions that are easier to carry, but we’re going to cross our fingers. We know eventually someone’s going to get taken from the Astros, whether it’s this year or next year, but we’ll cross our fingers that it’s not somebody who won’t be returned to us or we can’t live without.

JH: Another factor that some people may not think about is how many players are on each team’s 40-man roster already. I looked at the rosters recently and only seven teams had more than one opening at that time.

JL: I think if you don’t have room on your 40-man right now and you try and sign a major league free agent, you’ll have to create room. We look at that also, how many teams are up against their backs, but typically by the time the Rule 5 draft rolls around, over half the teams will have at least one spot. The ones that don’t, obviously, they can’t take anybody.

JH: The piggyback rotation seems to have been a success last season. Is that something that you’re planning on using again in 2014?

JL: We’re going to talk about it, but I really like the results of the piggyback this year. One of the reasons we did it last year was because we had a lot of starting pitcher candidates to evaluate and when you limit yourself to five spots in each level, you really end up putting a lot of potential starters in the bullpen. We have the same issue again this year. I’ve already started the exercise of putting together the rosters for the minor leagues for next year and there are way more than five starters at every level basically, so I think it’s going to be something that we start with out of the gate again. [Minor League Pitching Coordinator] Dyar [Miller] did a terrific job of managing it last year. We’re not beholden to any particular date. If we feel like the AAA staff pares itself down so that it’s five or six guys after a month, we’ll switch after a month. If we feel like all eight guys need to continue to get those innings for the first two months or longer, we’ll continue it. There was sort of a natural transition for the teams when they transitioned off of it last year and we’ll probably do the same thing this year. You don’t want to support an eight-man rotation just to do it. If it makes sense and you have enough starting pitcher candidates you want to evaluate, then do it.

JH: Everyone I spoke with last year during my travels to the various minor league venues really seemed to like the piggyback. The only drawback seems to have been that a few relief pitchers didn’t get much work in the early part of the season.

JL: True, but that’s a double-edged sword. That can go both ways. I’ve seen times when the guys in the piggyback are not making it through their innings and the relievers are having to be used more than they would in a traditional system so it’s both ways. But that’s why we do it. We want the eight most valuable pitchers to get the innings they need to develop, and then you have obviously to prioritize your relievers after that. You may have a potential closer or set up candidate and you make sure they get innings, but really, it’s a good way to make sure the innings go to the right pitchers.

JH: It was helpful that you were able to get a trio of relief pitchers [RHP Andrew Robinson, RHP Jonas Dufek and LHP Alex Sogard] some extra work in the Arizona Fall League, as well as showcasing them. Dufek had a particularly good fall campaign.

JL: It’s great. It really is great. And I think he [Dufek] raised his stock by going out there. They faced a lot of good hitting out there. That’s for sure.

JH: I really want the focus of our conversation to be the minor leagues, but I did want to ask about your plans for the major league bullpen for 2014. I know that it’s tough putting together a major league bullpen when relief pitchers can be so volatile from year to year.

JL: It’s the biggest issue when it comes to relievers that the number of innings that they get is much lower than the number of innings a starter gets. As a part of that, you’re not going to have as good a feel from one year to the next and there is going to be just more variability. And then what they’re asked to do in a number of different circumstances, coming in [for a] short stint with no rest one day to the next and so forth … there are just so many variables involved and it does seem to be an inherent increase of variability from one year to the next relative to both starters and position players so it’s difficult. It’s part art, part science.

Our minor league system was able to produce guys like [LHP Kevin] Chapman and [RHP Chia-Jen] Lo and [RHP Josh] Zeid and [RHP David] Martinez and [RHP Jorge] de Leon, and those guys all have the potential to be really good relievers at the big league level. The ones at the end of the year [who] were the furthest along were Fields and Chapman and Zeid and so you can imagine a major league bullpen with all three of those guys in it next year. And you look down the road, guys like [RHP Jason] Stoffel … he’s got a major league slider … Robinson, Sogard, Dufek, there are other guys. [RHP Jose] Cisnero had a really good beginning of the year up here. There are a lot of guys that could fit in to the mix. [LHP] Rudy Owens, if he’s not a starter could be a reliever. [RHP] Jake Buchanan, same thing. There are a lot of possibilities, but one thing we’re not going to do during the next year, [is having them] exposed and having to rely strictly on these young guys. We can mix and match it and I’m sure Bo [Astros Manager Bo Porter] will do a tremendous job of figuring out which guys to use, but at the end of the day, we do feel like we need a couple of arms that are a little bit more secure and have a little bit more of an established track record to provide some stability in the bullpen.

>>>>>>><<<<<<<

In Part 2 of our conversation (which I will post tomorrow), Luhnow and I talk about topics ranging from the Astros Venezuelan presence to minor league standouts to the DH to Alex White. And, of course, I had to ask him about George Springer.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Astros Minor League Depth - Position by Position

Over the past four weeks, I put together a position-by-position look at the depth of the Astros minor league system. Admittedly, this series is simply a snapshot in time. It looks at the players who had the best seasons in 2012. Some of those players will continue their upward trajectory through the Astros system. Some will fall by the wayside. New and unexpected heroes will emerge. Players will come and players will go as the adventure of following the minor league system continues for another season. I can scarcely wait.

With that said, I'm going to incorporate links to those posts into this one post and keep the link on the front page throughout the season as a reminder of where we started.

First Base

Second Base

Shortstop

Third Base

Right-Handed Starting Pitchers from Full Season Clubs

Right-Handed Starting Pitchers from Short Season Clubs

Right-Handed Relievers from AA and AAA Clubs

Right-Handed Relievers from A and Rookie League Clubs

Left Fielders

Center Fielders

Right Fielders

Left-Handed Starting Pitchers

Left-Handed Relief Pitchers

Catchers

Also, in case you missed these posts from the weekend, I looked at the Astros place in organizational rankings and put together a consensus list of Astros top prospects.

Organizational Rankings of the Astros Farm System

2013 Consensus Astros Top Prospects

Saturday, February 9, 2013

2013 Consensus Astros Top Prospect List

To get a general consensus regarding the Astros top prospects, I took top prospect lists from the Baseball America 2013 Prospect Handbook, John Sickels with Minor League Ball at SB Nation, Fan Graphs, Baseball Prospectus and Jonathan Mayo's 2013 Pre-Season Top 20 Prospect List and averaged the rankings. If a prospect was on at least three of the five lists, he qualified (with the following caveat).

I reached out to John Manuel of Baseball America to find out where Brad Peacock and Max Stassi would rank given that the Prospect Handbook had already been released prior to the Jed Lowrie trade; that information is included in these overall rankings. John Sickels and Jonathan Mayo had already revised their lists to include Peacock and Stassi. Fan Graphs and Baseball Prospectus did not revise their lists to include those two prospects.

Jon Singleton - Corpus Christi June 2012
Photo by Jayne Hansen

1. 1B Jonathan Singleton
2. SS Carlos Correa
3. OF George Springer
4. 2B Delino DeShields
5. RHP Jarred Cosart
6. RHP Lance McCullers
7. RHP Michael Foltynewciz
8. 3B Rio Ruiz
9. RHP Nick Tropeano
10T. OF Domingo Santana
10T. SS Jonathan Villar
12. RHP Brad Peacock
13. SS Nolan Fontana
14. RHP Asher Wojciechowski
15. RHP Vincent Velasquez
16. OF Robbie Grossman
17. RHP Adrian Houser
18. C Max Stassi
19. C Carlos Perez

Two additional prospects were ranked by two of the five: RHP Brady Rodgers and RHP Aaron West.

There were several more who were ranked by one of the five: OF Marc Krauss, OF Ariel Ovando, RHP Jose Cisnero, OF Brett Phillips, LHP Brett Oberholtzer, RHP Ross Seaton, RHP Chia-Jen Lo, OF Andrew Aplin, RHP Josh Fields, OF Austin Wates, RHP Paul Clemens, C Tyler Heineman, LHP Kevin Chapman, RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Kevin Comer, and LHP Colton Cain.

Others who were listed as players to watch by at least one of the five: 1B Nate Freiman, OF Preston Tucker, 3B/OF Bobby Borchering, RHP Alex Gillingham, RHP Matt Heidenreich, LHP Kenny Long, SS Jiovanni Mier, LHP Rudy Owens, RHP Bobby Doran, and OF Teoscar Hernandez.

For reference (and a walk down memory lane), here is the 2012 Consensus List that I put together last year about this time.

Organizational Rankings of the Astros Farm System

Several baseball writers have come out with their organizational rankings of the baseball farm systems as of late. It is gratifying to see that those looking in from the outside are seeing the vast improvement in depth and talent in the Astros system.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball (SB Nation)
2012 Ranking - 25th
2013 Ranking - 10th (revised from 11th after the Jed Lowrie trade)

Baseball America (from the recently released Prospect Handbook)
2012 Ranking - 17th
2013 Ranking - 9th

Keith Law of ESPN (Insider only)
2012 Ranking - 27th
2013 Ranking - 4th

Baseball Prospectus
2012 Ranking - 26th
2013 Ranking - 9th

It is important to note that many of the Astros top prospects came into the system before GM Jeff Luhnow arrived on the scene. Luhnow has done a fantastic job in bringing in new talent and shoring up the depth of the system, but I'm sure that he would be the first to admit that he is also the beneficiary of the growth and maturation of prospects that he inherited. The combination is working.

Luhnow and his team did an incredible job with working the new draft system in 2012, and I expect nothing less from his team in 2013. I would not be surprised to see the Astros become a Top 5 farm system when these rankings come out next year about this time. It is my hope that, once we get there, we stay there for a long time to come.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Jeff Luhnow Interview Part 4

In Part 4 of my interview with Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, we talked about rebuilding and his first year in Houston. Parts 1, 2 and 3 of the interview are here, here and here.
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I asked Luhnow what he thought was the biggest misconception about rebuilding a team. “First of all, I don’t think people understand [that] rebuilding comes in a lot of different forms. There’s rebuilding the major league team -- you could have a bunch of veteran players and you promote the prospects -- that’s technically considered rebuilding, but that’s just getting younger and going with your prospects as opposed to your veterans. That’s one form of rebuilding. And actually there’s also the idea of rebuilding while you’re good at the major league level. That’s something that we did in St. Louis. The team was having a lot of success – ’04, ’05, ’06, back in the playoffs in ’09, so the team really never went through a significant down cycle, but at the same time, there was a tremendous amount of effort going into injecting talent into the minor league system through the international program and the draft and some of the other things that were going on.

But, really, how long it takes to rebuild [is a big misconception]. In order to really understand how long it’s going to take, you need to have a pretty thorough understanding of what the system looks like in the minor leagues compared to other systems. And that can give you a hint as to whether it’s going to be a couple of years or five-plus years. We’ve seen teams like Pittsburgh and Washington and Kansas City (and Tampa Bay did it a while back) pick high in the draft for sometimes five years or more. And then even after that point, it takes a few years for those high-end players to come through the system and reach the big leagues. I think we’re looking at a much shorter time frame, hopefully. There’s a lot that needs to go right for that to happen, but because we were able to do some of the things we did this year with the trades, because we felt like we had a better system than we were being given credit for and because we’re just going to make sure that from now on, we utilize our draft pool and international pool to maximize the impact, [I think we are poised to make that happen]. I think every situation is unique and I think that’s probably the one thing that fans don’t necessarily understand. It seems like sometimes in other sports [when] you rebuild, you’re bad for a year or you’re bad for two years, and then you’re back. In baseball, it’s like turning a battleship around [my emphasis]. It’s not something that you can really do very quickly.”

The final question I had for Luhnow was what he thought about Houston after his first year as the Astros General Manager. “I love the city and I love the team and the fans are great. [Me: And the bloggers are a little insane?] No, the bloggers are great as well (laughter). I really appreciate the passion. It was one thing to have passionate bloggers and people following the minor leagues in St. Louis where the team was in the World Series and all that, but to have it here in Houston... There’s just such a core group of really passionate fans and followers, it’s great.

"I think we have our challenges ahead, but I like the team that we’re building here. We’ve basically replaced the entire front office. We’ve replaced a lot of the scouting, player development, the field staff, and I really believe that we have a staff in place now that can match up against any staff in baseball. And that’s a starting point because it’s a people business and people are the ones that make the decisions. We need to have the right people making the right decisions with the right information. I know it’s been frustrating for our fans to go through two seasons like we just went through and the only thing I can continue to promise (I won’t give a timeline because if I do, I’ll be wrong), but I promise that we are working as hard and as smart as we can to win as many games as quickly as possible at the big league level and, once we get there, [to] sustain that so it’s not a situation where … we made a run at it and now we have to go back and start over again. That’s the goal and I think we’re well on our way. The first year, while on paper at the big league level, may not appear to have been successful, the number of things that we were able to accomplish, setting up the infrastructure and the underlying fundamentals that are going to help us in the future -- it was a huge success. So the key for this next year is to continue to build on that and to allow some of that work to begin to show its fruits."

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I sincerely thank Jeff Luhnow for taking the time to talk with me. Astros fans have been through some very trying times the last few seasons. Personally, I take comfort in knowing that the Astros system is being rebuilt the right way and that a smart, focused and highly motivated individual like Luhnow is in charge. I think he has this battleship turned around. Now it’s just a matter of getting it up to speed. That may take a while, but once we get there, I think we’ll be cruising along smoothly for a long time to come.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Jeff Luhnow Interview Part 3

In Part 3 of my interview with Jeff Luhnow, the topics were more wide-ranging. We talked about some of the problems that come with greater depth, protecting players in the Rule 5 draft, and winter league player control. Parts 1 and 2 are here and here.

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I asked Luhnow about whether he’d been to the Dominican Republic yet to look at the players in the instructional league in hopes I could hear about a player or two who had caught his eye. Alas, he won’t be going until after the winter baseball meetings, but told me that he would be going with Assistant GM David Stearns and Director of Latin American Scouting Oz Campo to “watch a couple games, do a couple tryouts.”

I mentioned something that Lancaster Manager Rodney Linares said to me in talking about the increasing depth in the farm system, calling it “a good mess.” Luhnow agreed that there are challenges, “Once you start to have depth, you put pressure on your 40-man, you have to worry about playing time. That decision [is something] that Quinton [new Director of Player Development Quinton McCracken] and the rest of us will have to make next year as far as who gets what spots, what level, what playing time. [It] becomes a much more important decision when you have a number of prospects and your system is starting to become more robust like ours is, so those decisions will be carefully weighed. It’s always a challenge not to over weigh what you see in Spring Training in two weeks of at-bats or in two weeks of innings pitched because, as we all know, Spring Training is an OK predictor of what’s going to happen during the season, but it’s not perfect and sometimes looking at [the player’s] track record may be just as important.”

I spoke with Luhnow on the 20th shortly before the 40-man roster had been set in advance of the Rule 5 draft. In speaking of the process of protecting players, he said, “I wouldn’t underestimate how difficult it is for a team to keep a player on their 25-man roster all year. It is a challenge. We were able to do it last year in large part because Marwin [Gonzalez] was so important to our team and he really became a regular player, and we have enough bullpen depth where we could pitch [Rhiner] Cruz in certain spots and not necessarily overexpose him so we were fortunate in that way. I think it would be a lot more challenging going forward to protect two more guys this year. We’re certainly going to take players but whether or not we are able to keep them? [It’s] going to be difficult to repeat that.”

I was curious about the level of control that the team has over players who play winter league ball in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, among other places. In particular, I was thinking of how Jimmy Paredes was being used extensively in the outfield in his time in the Dominican Republic. I assumed that this was something that the Astros front office would want as Paredes continues in his transition from second base to the outfield. According to Luhnow, “It’s a negotiation. What we do is whenever we can possibly legally prevent the team from using the player, we usually trigger that using the extreme fatigue clauses so that we can have a little more control over how they’re used. A lot of those players, we were able to say you can’t use them, but then we do allow them to play but under certain conditions. We do that whenever we can and that allows us, especially with pitchers, to dictate the number of innings, how they’re used, how often they can go back-to-back, all those types of things. And then with respect to Paredes, I think it’s a combination of he wanted to play outfield, we talked to the team and we asked them to make sure that he gets extensive playing time out there and it’s also just a good fit for them as well so … it’s a negotiation. There are ongoing relationships that we have with all the winter club teams and they know we’re all in this together for many years. They know if they do something against our wishes this year, it might come back to haunt them next year because we might not let them have the player they want so it’s definitely one of those things where we work collaboratively with a team.

On Thursday: Some final thoughts from Jeff Luhnow on rebuilding and his first year in Houston

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Jeff Luhnow Interview Part 2

In Part 1 of my interview with Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow, he laid out his thoughts on the state of the Astros minor league system and the three dynamics at play in bolstering the system. Today, we dig a little deeper and look at some specific needs and his thoughts on some specific players.

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In conjunction with Luhnow’s analysis of the improvements to the farm system, I also asked him about which areas were most improved, in terms of depth, and which areas he felt still needed work. Here is what he had to say. “Now specifically, the trades were, as you can tell by the players who came back, were really focused on pitching, left-handed pitching wherever possible, but just pitching. There’s such a high failure rate among pitchers in the minor leagues that we really feel like, if you can grab a bunch of pitchers that have already cleared a couple of hurdles and are in that A-ball, AA range, you’re in pretty good shape at that point. I think the goal of a lot of those trades was to substantially add to our depth of good prospects. I don’t think that we necessarily got any premium, top-end prospects in the trades, but then again, we weren’t necessarily trading any top-end major leaguers. We were trading good major leaguers that were ready to contribute now, and in return we got a high quantity of good prospects. I think that was our objective and we accomplished it. Catching was a priority as well. We still feel like we’re thin on catching. [Carlos] Perez helped. Having [Tyler] Heineman have a great year out of the draft helped, but we still have a ways to go. That’s an area where we’re going to continue to look to improve.”

I also asked Luhnow if there were any prospects who stood out for him for one reason or another as he made his rounds of the minor league ballparks this summer. “Yes, I think so. Just to give you an example, [OF Ariel] Ovando. What I knew about him coming in was that he was a toolsy player that got a lot of money [and] didn’t perform relative to the amount of money he got, his signing bonus as an amateur. And I think I was really impressed. I saw him in the winter and then I saw him this year at Greeneville, and I think I was impressed with how he was handling all of that and how he wasn’t letting it bother him. He was going out there and performing. I thought that was important to see. There were a lot of good performances in our minor league systems though, for me, the first time through was just trying to learn who these guys were more than anything and trying to get a sense for the staff. There were certain players that I came in knowing I was going to take a look at, but there were lots of others that ended up catching my attention so it was definitely worthwhile. I think next year I’d like to spend a little more time out there because this year it was maybe two or three days per spot so I didn’t get to see everybody. You go in; you see maybe two or three of the starters. You don’t get to see everybody. I was impressed with [RHP Adrian] Houser when I saw him in Greeneville. I was impressed with [LHP Brett] Oberholtzer when I saw him but there [were] a lot of pitchers I didn’t get to see when I was out there.”

I wondered if there were any higher level prospects who had answered his questions or concerns this season. In particular, I was thinking of RHP Jarred Cosart who, after having a history of injuries, has remained healthy for the last two seasons (with the exception of some minor blister problems). “Cosart – I happened to be there when he had a dominating performance. When you watch him in one of those starts, you sort of put all those concerns aside because he’s got the arm to be … I still believe that he can be a top-of-the-rotation starter because he’s got enough stuff and he seems to maintain it throughout the game so that was good for me to see. I think [RHP] Paul Clemens is another guy that struggled at times this year mightily in AAA. What I had seen in Spring Training was different than what the results were showing during the season. Getting a chance to see him late was important as well because I believe that he’s everything that we saw in Spring Training. It’s just a matter of him gaining the confidence and really developing an approach that allows him to be consistent because he’s got big league stuff. He’s another one that I heard about and had seen a little bit in Spring Training and was curious as to why the results weren’t matching what I had seen. And that happens. I think there [are] a couple of players that I’m curious to see next year that we didn’t get to see this year like [1B Chase] Davidson and [RHP Jack] Armstrong. Those are guys that … when you have players like that, that have either [been] highly touted or drafted high or have had success and then missed basically entire years due to injury, those are the kind of guys you don’t tend to think about or put on lists, but those are guys that when you think towards next year, in the back of your mind [you] have a little bit of a safety net. [If] those guys pitch or hit to their abilities, all of a sudden we have two more guys we’re going to be talking about next year at this time.”

This led me to ask about a couple of the players that missed all or a large part of the season due to injuries. Luhnow didn’t specify what had kept Chase Davidson from missing most of the season, but had a bit more to say regarding Armstrong and RHP Kyle Weiland. “Armstrong should be [ready for 2013]. Weiland, he’s been rehabbing. We just checked in on him about a week ago and he’s getting stronger. It’s just that when you take that much time off, it takes a while to build up the strength. Armstrong was a little more of a routine situation. Weiland was a little bit more of an unexpected, navigating-into-new-territory situation. I’m hopeful that both of them will be ready to go for Spring Training. [More on Armstrong.] I’ve been watching him since he went to high school there in Jupiter when I was with the Cardinals. I would watch him in high school from basically sophomore year all the way through until senior year and watched him at Vanderbilt so I’ve got some history with him. He’s everything you look for in a pitcher, really."

On Wednesday, we hear from Jeff Luhnow regarding issues associated with greater depth in the system, thoughts on the Rule 5 draft and winter league player control.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Jeff Luhnow Interview Part 1 - State of the Astros Farm System

The now one-year-old Astros front office is definitely more blogger friendly than the prior administration, but lest you think that getting a one-on-one phone interview with General Manager Jeff Luhnow doesn’t take persistence, you would be thoroughly mistaken. I first contacted Luhnow toward the end of July and tried to set something up for shortly after the trade deadline, but that didn’t quite materialize. Fast forward through several email reminders (translation: friendly nagging) to Astros media relations, a couple of in-person nudges to Luhnow himself during various encounters and a very-tongue-in-cheek (I promise) allusion to Glenn Close and bunnies, and the day was finally at hand.

On Tuesday, November 20th, Jeff Luhnow was gracious enough to grant me more than a half-hour of his very valuable time. The results of that interview will be split into four parts and published throughout the week. The first part is fairly long, but there was really no way to break it up. It focuses on what I like to think of as a “State of the Union Address” as it pertains to the Astros farm system.

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The first thing that Luhnow talked about was how the Astros farm system had been ranked very lowly by external experts for a number of years, citing in particular Baseball Prospectus’ rankings which had not been higher than 26th (in 2012) out of 30 teams since at least 2007. He emphasized that the Astros “were starting from a fairly low base.” According to Luhnow, “This year, there were really three dynamics that occurred that enabled us to make a significant improvement and this is independent of trying to address any specific need in terms of position because really the system as a whole just needed a big upgrade, a big face lift and needed to start to compete with the better systems in baseball.

“Number one, there were several players that we internally believed were undervalued by the market, by the pundits, players like [2B Delino] DeShields, players like [RHP Vincent] Velasquez, players like [RHP Mike] Foltynewicz, and even to a certain extent some of the recent draft players like [OF George] Springer and so forth. And those players had good years this year and part of that equation was we knew they were good and we knew they would eventually have good years. A lot of these are young players, high school players that underperformed in their first couple of years or first year relative to what our expectations were, but expectations are always very high for top round picks and these are young men that have a long way to go coming out of high school. That dynamic occurs frequently in the industry. Very few first or second round high school players go out and immediately have success and so normally there’s a little bit of a disappointment those first couple of years, and we saw some of that with some of our players. We knew they were better than people were giving them credit for and they proved that this year.

“The other [part of that] dynamic was that we held them back. We didn’t promote them just because they were a year older. We really held firm to the notion that you need to earn the promotion from one level to the next, and the best way to do that is to prove that you have dominated that level and there were several players that hadn’t dominated levels yet that needed to repeat, like DeShields, like Folty, that ended up dominating them this year. So I think there was more inherent talent than people were giving us credit for and it was just a matter of letting that talent show itself, reveal itself, and not pushing it too fast because these are young men that still have a long way to go. So that was … the first dynamic.

“I think the second dynamic that occurred was the draft and the fact that, because we had the benefit of Sig’s [Sig Mejdal, Director of Decision Sciences] group and all the work that they did to help our scouts -- validate the scout’s opinion or challenge the scout’s opinion in some cases -- we ended up with a very robust draft group of proven performers and toolsy prospects. I think that combination was really important for us because the evidence was demonstrated immediately as the proven performers, e.g. the [OF Andrew] Aplins and the [LHP Kenny] Longs and those players came in to the low end of our system and immediately performed the way we expected them to, the way they had their entire careers. That enabled those teams to have more success which just creates more of a mentality that this is a winning organization. So whether it’s Rodgers or [other] pitchers that were in Short Season A, the guys I talked about, guys like Aplin, guys like [OF Preston] Tucker … all those guys came in and did exactly what we expected them to do. But they weren’t the types of players that the Astros had been drafting in prior years. The Astros had focused extensively on tools players with high ceilings and, where we were still able to get some of those guys this year in the form of [3B Rio] Ruiz and [RHP Lance] McCullers and [SS Carlos] Correa, once we got to a certain point in the draft, we focused much more on the players we knew had a proven track record that we thought could advance quickly through our system and help build our depth. So that occurred at the lower end of the system.

“And then, [the third dynamic was] really the trades throughout the season. The trades starting in Spring Training, but all the way through July, enabled us to basically inject -- I think the final number was 17 -- minor league players into our system, everywhere from rookie ball up to AAA, and eventually to big leagues. That was a huge injection of talent, all players that we had determined had already cleared maybe a hurdle or two in the minor leagues. When you’re drafting a player, there [are] a lot of hurdles between where that player is and the big leagues. When you’re trading for a player that’s already been in the minor leagues for a few years, presumably if you’re doing your work properly, [they’ve] already cleared a few of those hurdles and so they’re a little bit of a safer bet. That’s [the case] with players like [LHP Rob] Rasmussen, [3B Matt] Dominguez, [C Carlos] Perez and the rest of the guys that we got from those trades from Pittsburgh and Toronto, etc. Those are all players that had cleared a couple of hurdles and we felt were well-positioned to become prospects or to continue to be prospects.

“Those three dynamics together led to a fairly dramatic improvement in the system and I think evidence of that [is that] we were dead last [in 2011] in terms of win-loss percentage [for the seven domestic minor league affiliates] and this year we’re first. That doesn’t happen by accident. There is a lot of randomness, of course, in win-loss record but to go from worst to first is not an accident. I think it was because of these three dynamics I’m speaking about, and that we did execute against the strategy that George [Astros President George Postolos] and Jim [Owner Jim Crane] have laid out from the beginning. We want to have the best young talent in baseball so we put a lot of resources into that and we’re going to continue to do that and hopefully, whether or not the experts recognize it, we believe we have a system that’s probably close to the top 10, if not in the top 10 now. We have our own metrics of determining that and I think the external validation will be there. We’ll probably at least be in the top half, but that’s not why we do it. The reason we do it is to create major league talent and to shepherd it through our minor league system and create value at the big league level that we can either trade or play and that’s what I think we did a good job of.”

On Tuesday: Luhnow talks about system depth at certain positions and gives us his thoughts on some specific players.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Composition of the Astros System: Overview

Last week I looked at the minutiae of what makes up the Astros system. First I looked at Position Players and then I looked at Pitchers. Now let's put it all together. (All information includes both major league players and minor league players in the Astros system as of the end of the 2012 season. I may be missing one or two players but the underlying data should be pretty darned accurate.)

ASTROS PLAYERS (290)

PLACE OF BIRTH
166 - United States (31 states and the District of Columbia)*
70 - Dominican Republic
21 - Venezuela
13 - Puerto Rico
5 - Panama
4 - Colombia
3 - Nicaragua
1 - Brazil
1 - El Salvador
1 - Mexico
1 - Canada (Ontario)
1 - Taiwan
1 - Virgin Islands
1 - South Korea
1 - Australia

*U.S. Breakdown
35 - California
26 - Texas
19 - Florida
8 - Georgia
7 - Ohio
7 - Illinois
7 - Arizona
5 - Oklahoma
5 - South Carolina
5 - North Carolina
3 - New York
3 - Nebraska
3 - Pennsylvania
3 - Massachusetts
3 - Minnesota
3 - Washington
2 each - Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Maryland, New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia
1 each - Arkansas, Delaware, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Washington DC

WHEN/HOW SIGNED
The dates may be off on an occasional winter signing or a Latin free agent who did not play until the following year, but this should still serve to give you a general idea.
  • 2002 - Latin American Free Agent (1)
  • 2005 - Latin American Free Agents (4); Drafted (2 - 1 college & 1 community college)
  • 2006 - Latin American Free Agents (5); Drafted (2 college)
  • 2007 - Latin American Free Agents (6); Rule 5 (1)
  • 2008 - Drafted (11 - 6 high school, 4 college & 1 community college); Latin American Free Agents (11); Pacific Rim Free Agent (1); U.S. Non-Drafted Free Agent (1); Free Agent (1)
  • 2009 - Drafted (14 - 7 college & 7 high school); Latin American Free Agents (9); U.S. Non-Drafted Free Agents (2); Pacific Rim Free Agent (1); Free Agent (1); Trade (1); Waiver Claim (1)
  • 2010 - Drafted (22 - 11 college, 9 high school & 2 community college); Latin American Free Agents (20); Trades (6); Free Agents (3); U.S. Non-Drafted Free Agents (2); Rule 5 (1); Waiver Claim (1)
  • 2011 - Drafted (30 - 22 college, 4 community college & 4 high school); Latin American Free Agents (15); Trades (12); Free Agents (7); U.S. Non-Drafted Free Agents (4); Waiver Claims (3); Rule 5 (1); Rule 5/Trade (1)
  • 2012 - Drafted (31 - 23 college, 4 community college & 4 high school); Trades (21); Latin American Free Agents (16); Free Agents (10); Waiver Claims (4); U.S. Non-drafted Free Agents (4); Pacific Rim Free Agent (1)
Totals
70 - Drafted out of College
30 - Drafted out of High School
12 - Drafted out of Community College
87 - Latin American Free Agents
3 - Pacific Rim Free Agents
13 - U.S. Non-Drafted Free Agents
40 - Trades
22 - Free Agents
9 - Waiver Claims
3 - Rule 5
1 - Rule 5/Trade

DRAFT PICKS BY ROUND
In addition to those players drafted by the Astros, there have been numerous players added to the system that were drafted by other teams. Here is the breakdown by round of all players in the Astros system that were originally drafted whether by the Astros or by another team.

22 - 1st round
10 - 2nd round
9 - 3rd round
9 - 4th round
5 - 5th round
6 - 6th round
6 - 7th round
8 - 8th round
7 - 9th round
5 - 10th round
4 - 11th round
4 - 12th round
4 - 13th round
3 - 14th round
5 - 15th round
3 - 16th round
3 - 17th round
2 - 18th round
3 - 19th round
2 - 20th round
2 - 21st round
2 - 22nd round
3 - 23rd round
2 - 24th round
3 - 25th round
3 - 27th round
3 - 28th round
3 - 29th round
1 - 30th round
4 - 31st round
2 - 32nd round
1 - 33rd round
1 - 34th round
2 - 35th round
2 - 36th round
2 - 37th round
2 - 38th round
1 - 39th round
1 - 41st round
1 - 45th round
1 - 49th round

BATTERS
87 - Bat right-handed
36 - Bat left-handed
16 - Switch hitters
1 - Unknown (N/A for 2012 Australian signing Connor MacDonald)

POSITION
63 - Infielders primarily
50 - Outfielders primarily
27 - Catchers
111 - Right-handed pitchers
39 - Left-handed pitchers

In looking at the information, a couple of things jumped out at me.
  • I'm really surprised that there isn't a single person in the organization from Louisiana. The closest thing we've got is Brian Bogusevic who was born in Illinois but went to college at Tulane.
  • Almost one quarter of the players (24.1%) are from the Dominican Republic.
  • 17.1% of position players (and 12.1% of the total) were born in California while 12% of the pitchers were born in Texas.
  • Only 3 pitchers out of 17 drafted (Dallas Keuchel, Tanner Bushue and Raul Rivera) remain from 2009 draft while 14 of 19 position players remain.
  • 2009 also appears to have been a subpar year in Latin American free agent signings as only nine players signed that year are still in the system.
Again, I just looked at this information mainly because I find it personally interesting and not to draw any sweeping conclusions. I hope you found it somewhat interesting as well.