Beyond the Top 30: First Base

As the old year fades away and the new season approaches, it's time to start looking at those players of interest who are beyond the Top 30. These players may not ever make a Top 30 list (or they may), but a combination of projections, actual results, incremental improvements and intangibles keep them in the mix as interesting players to watch. I am not including any players in these posts who have already made their major league debuts since, presumably, anyone reading my blog is already very familiar with those players.

Note: Many of the 2018 player rankings haven't been released yet so I will be using the MLB Pipeline postseason list, the Baseball Prospectus Top 10+ list and Baseball America's Top 10 list to denote those players who are currently considered Top 30 type players in the Astros system. Once FanGraphs weighs in, Baseball America publishes their Top 30 and MLB Pipeline posts their 2018 pre-season list, I will post a consensus top prospect list.

[UPDATES TO FINAL 2018 PRE-SEASON RANKINGS SHOWN IN RED.

BA= BASEBALL AMERICA, BP = BASEBALL PROSPECTUS,

FG=FANGRAPHS, MLB = MLB PIPELINE]

FIRST BASEMEN IN THE TOP 30

Yordan Alvarez - May 2017

Photo Courtesy of Rich Guill

Yordan Alvarez (L/L) - BA #3, FG #4, BP #4, MLB #4

OK, technically Alvarez spent more time in left field than at first base in 2017, but since there are a TON of outfield prospects in the Astros system and Alvarez is the only one from the current lists who spent time at first base, I'm calling him a first baseman (at least for now). Alvarez, a 20-year old Cuban who came to the Houston system in an August 2016 trade with the Dodgers for RHP Josh Fields, was ranked as the third best prospect in the Astros system by Baseball America last week (Baseball Prospectus and MLB postseason rankings have him at number 4). The reason that he is ranked so highly is because of his bat. He provides average defense at first base with an average arm and below average speed, so it was his 2017 offensive line of .304/.379/.481 in 90 games split between Quad Cities and Buies Creek that set him apart. Alvarez hits with authority to all fields and his power (17 doubles, three triples and 12 home runs) should continue to develop with more experience. His bat control and strike zone discipline have worked very well for him so far in his professional career.

FIRST BASEMEN BEYOND THE TOP 30 (in alphabetical order)

Troy Sieber - July 2017

Photo by Jayne Hansen

Jake Adams (R/R)
Adams, drafted by the Astros in the 6th round in 2017 out of the University of Iowa, did not have a very auspicious freshman professional season (.170/.280/.388). But as a unanimous Big 10 Player of the Year and semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award, he has earned the opportunity to show the Astros what he can do in the new season. The bad news? He only collected 28 hits in 48 games for short season A Tri-City in 2017. The good news? 16 of those 28 hits were for extra bases (six doubles and 10 home runs). As a matter of fact, his first professional home run was a monster 425-foot shot in his first professional at-bat. There was more good news in that Adams cut waaayyyy down on his strikeouts later in the season (a total of 24 walks to 68 strikeouts in 48 games). Adams just turned 22 in December.
Keys: Work on his plate discipline and long swing, putting more balls into play and cutting his strikeouts down to a manageable level. Also, he reportedly will need to work on his footwork at first base.

Roman Garcia (R/R)
Garcia, drafted 13 rounds lower than Adams in the 19th round out of the University of San Diego had the kind of solid first season one would have liked to see from Adams. Granted Garcia's season was with the lower level Rookie League Greeneville team, but Garcia was able to show more plate discipline and keep the strikeouts reasonably within check while putting up a .277/.342/.457 line (eight doubles, one triple and seven home runs) in his 48 games. He also finished the season very strongly with a .337/.356/.530 line in 23 games in August, plus an excellent postseason. Garcia was a solid defender at first in his inaugural season. Garcia turned 22 this past November.
Key: Keep strikeouts in check (48 strikeouts to 14 walks in 48 games in 2017) while putting the ball in play at the higher levels.

Colton Shaver (R/R)
I find Shaver, the Astros 2017 39th round draft pick out of Brigham Young, to be very intriguing. With a .215/.332/.423 batting line and 25 walks to 63 strikeouts in his first 49 professional games (between Greeneville and Tri-City), Shaver certainly has his work cut out for him when it comes to plate discipline, but he has legitimate power. Shaver peaked in July (16 games in Greeneville and five games in Tri-City), hitting .275/.420/.609 with two doubles and seven of his 10 home runs. Shaver also collected the first and second walk-off grand slams in Tri-City history in 2017. With a bat that big, you have to root for the 39th round pick! Shaver really tailed off at the end of the season as first year players sometimes do. I'll be interested to see what he can do in his sophomore season.
Key: Work on plate discipline and strikeout rate without sacrificing a ton of power.

Troy Sieber (L/R)
I am a big fan of Sieber for all of his intangibles. He is smart, a very hard worker, a good clubhouse guy and a leader on the field. He started the season at Extended Spring Training taking additional instruction, but it only took two games at short season A Tri-City to convince the Astros that he was ready for full season A Quad Cities where he spent the remaining 54 games of his season. For the season, he compiled a .289/.403/.457 batting line with 37 walks to 49 strikeouts. His power (12 doubles and seven home runs) is developing and he shows the aptitude to hit to all fields. Sieber ended the season extremely well, hitting .343/.478/.514 in 20 games in August and .333/.478/.389 in five postseason games. Sieber is a very physical player who will use his body to keep the ball in front of him, if necessary, as he works to finetune his defensive game. The 2016 24th round draft pick out of St. Leo College (FL), will be 23 in June.
Keys: Sieber is working to drive the ball more. He will need to keep making adjustments, both offensively and defensively, as he climbs the ladder and faces more polished competition at the higher levels.

Final Notes:

• I went back and forth about 20 times as to whether or not to include Hooks 1B Dex McCall on this list. Ultimately, I decided that I needed to see more consistency from him. At 24 later this month, going into his fifth professional season, I need to see more consistency for average, power and in his on-base skills in 2018. At this point in his development, he needs to prove that he can be a major league first baseman and I don't believe that he has yet done that. I hope for him to prove me wrong in 2018! [McCall was released prior to the 2018 season.]
• I will also keep an eye on Angel Tejeda who hit .304/.398/.411 in 45 games between the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League. It was, however, Tejeda's third professional season and his first promotion to the U.S. Since he will be 20 later this month, any enthusiasm I have for him is somewhat tempered.

Previous Posts:
Shortstop
Second Base

Astros Minor League Depth - First Base

[4/13/14 UPDATE: Jesse Wierzbicki, Chase Davidson and Victor Tavarez are no longer in the organization. Brandon Meredith has been converted to first base; his 2013 stats can be found in the left field post.]

It's time to take a look at the Astros minor league depth, position by position, as we approach Spring Training. Today, we will look at first base.

I have split the players into two camps, those who finished the season at Advanced A Lancaster or higher and those who finished the season at Quad Cities A or lower. The embedded charts show first basemen in the organization ranked from high to low in terms of OPS. I am not including players who spent time at the major league level in 2013. The age shown is the player's current age.



First, let's look at the players who ended the season at the higher levels. Japhet Amador obviously leads the list with a very healthy OPS, but most of his 2013 play occurred in the Mexican League. He only played in a handful of games at Oklahoma City at the end of the season following his signing. He (arguably) did well in the Arizona Fall League, but his one walk to 17 strikeouts in 18 games is of some concern. After the AFL, Amador played in the Mexican Pacific winter league and all of his numbers were down, but he did at least draw a few more walks.

Jon Singleton's numbers for 2013 did not live up to Jon Singleton's standards, but I see zero cause for alarm. In this video interview from the Rookie Career Development Program, Singleton notes that due to the suspension and jumping up to AAA from AA, he spent most of his season making adjustments and never really felt comfortable at the plate. Fast forward to winter ball in Puerto Rico ... Singleton put up a .933 OPS. Last week, Jonathan Mayo anointed him the top first base prospect in all of baseball.

Jon Singleton - June 2013

Photo by Jayne Hansen

Erik Castro showed that his power at Lancaster was not a fluke with his 28 doubles and 18 home runs at Corpus Christi. Telvin Nash's season was abbreviated due to injury, and he still struggled with strikeouts (although he didn't strike out at quite the rate he did in 2012). Nash will only be 23 in February so he still has time to mature as a hitter. Jesse Wierzbicki spent the final 25 games of the season at Lancaster and his numbers dropped off slightly over those games.

That leaves us with unsung hero M.P. Cokinos. Cokinos was, up until this season, a catcher, and he still caught on occasion in his time at Lancaster in 2013. But Rodney Linares wanted Cokinos' bat in the lineup on a regular basis so he split his season, for the most part, between first base and DH (with a few outfield appearances as well). He boasts a very healthy OBP and a very low strikeout rate, only whiffing 41 times in 109 games.



Yonathan Mejia leads the list in OPS from the lower levels, thanks in large part to excellent numbers in the Gulf Coast League which led to his promotion to Tri-City for the final three games of the regular season. He only turned 21 in September.

Conrad Gregor (fourth round pick out of Vanderbilt) and Chase McDonald (12th round pick out of East Carolina University in North Carolina) are next on the list, each putting up solid numbers in their first seasons as professionals. They have each established a good foundation on which to build.

Chase McDonald - August 2013

Photo by Jayne Hansen

Hector Roa had a .423 slugging percentage with the Dominican Summer League team, leading to his promotion to the Gulf Coast League for the final six games of the season where, coincidentally, he played in the outfield rather than at first base. He turns 19 in March. Victor Tavarez barely got his feet wet and spent more time as DH (16 games) than he did at first base. He is also currently 18.

Chase Davidson only played in 10 games, all at DH, before disappearing for the rest of the year after the game on April 23rd, presumably due to an injury of some kind. He just turned 24 last week. Bobby Borchering had been at AA in 2012, but did not make it out of Quad Cities in 2013. Considering his age and what he should have done in Low A ball, it's hard to be very encouraged about the former first round pick.

Next Up: Third Base

Astros Minor League Depth - First Base

It's time to take a look at the Astros minor league depth, position by position, as we approach Spring Training. Today, we will look at the first basemen in the organization who had the best seasons in 2012.

The embedded chart shows first basemen in the organization ranked from high to low in terms of OPS. I have noted their current age, the last level at which they played and, if they spent significant time at multiple positions, that information is included as well. I am not including players who spent time at the major league level in 2012, such as Brett Wallace.

Erik Castro, who barely leads this list over Jonathan Singleton, divided his time almost equally between 1B and DH in 2012. I would caution against those who are inclined to dismiss Castro as a prospect because of the "Lancaster effect" and the fact that he will be 25 going in to the 2013 season. He was 100% healthy in 2012 for the first time since injury sidetracked his career in 2010. I can certainly see Castro successfully moving up in the system in 2013. He may even get back to playing third base as well which would only add to his versatility and value to the organization. One key for him is to cut down on his strikeout rate.

At first glance, you may be unimpressed by Zach Johnson's .238 batting average, but look a little closer. Johnson was tied with Castro for an organization-leading 108 RBI. He got those RBI any way he could, including grounding into force outs and an organization-leading 14 sac flies, and productive outs don't exactly boost a player's batting average. His 38 doubles ranked in the organization behind only the 39 doubles hit by Brandon Barnes before his call-up to Houston. 

The only one of these players who is new to the organization is Michael Martinez, a 2012 draftee who had a solid debut season with Greeneville. Jesse Wierzbicki in his second season with the Astros and Rafael Valenzuela in his third year both had good seasons as well. Valenzuela was an integral part of the Lancaster team's late run to the playoffs and Wierzbicki was named MVP of the Tri-City team.

One surprise for me from this list was that Jean Batista actually spent more time at first base than he did at either of the middle infield positions as he has in the past. It may just be a temporary situation as players jockey for playing time, but interesting to watch in any event.

Jonathan Singleton, of course, just got popped with a 50-game suspension for testing positive for what has been widely reported as marijuana. He will be allowed to participate in Spring Training, and his suspension will start once the season begins.

One player who doesn't appear on this list who will bear watching in 2013 is Chase Davidson. He only played in a handful of games in 2012, all at DH, before sitting out the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury. When I interviewed Jeff Luhnow in November, he mentioned that he was eager to see what Davidson could do once healthy.

Tuesday: Second Base