Nance M. is back to share her thoughts about prospects and expectations or, to coin a phrase, prospectations.
>>>>>>><<<<<<<
The best thing about baseball is that everybody has their
own twist of enjoying the game and participating as a fan. Ultimately, all that matters is wins and
losses and we all want to see our team win. Unfortunately for us Astros fans, the last few seasons have been less
than satisfying in that respect so many of us have been actively seeking other
ways to enjoy our favorite game. Most of
us reading WTHB take great pleasure in following prospects in order to be the
first to pick the next greatest player of the generation (or bust for the
cynics in the audience). We all want to
find our own home grown “Mr. October”. Oh,
God, did I really just make a Yankees reference – please forgive that slip.
Some of us focus on “tools”.
But a lot of players with great “tools” have been a bust. There is a large contingent that I lovingly
(or not) refer to as “Stat Rats” that are enamored with the mathematical side
of the game using advanced statistics to predict success/failure. Some fans just want to read and adopt what
the professionals think. Others might
use less tangible measures such as how they wear their socks or caps.
I am fascinated with the mental side of the game. In addition to looking for players with high
baseball IQ, I try to identify prospects that have “IT”. What is “IT”, you ask? I don’t know if I can
define IT, but a player who has IT, is prepared to not get beat. IT shows in the expression on their face,
their demeanor as they walk onto the field, and in the dugout. IT can overcome a deficiency in tools. IT sometimes defies statistics. For some
reason, I can see IT in pitchers more than position players. It is hard for me
to recognize IT from watching TV (especially since – nope, not going to go
there) and I don’t get the opportunity to see many minor league games in
person. Ultimately, I think IT is
closely correlated with extremely high baseball self-confidence. Former Astros
who rated high on my IT meter? Bagwell,
Biggio, Clemens, Pettite, Wagner, Kent.
Oswalt had IT up until his last year in Houston.
I had the pleasure of talking to Quinton McCracken about the
pressure that the young players are under when they come up. I am convinced that mental strength, thus
self-confidence, is the most important factor in predicting success or failure
of a prospect. A player must have a very
high level of self-confidence to be successful at the major league level. Baseball is a game of failure. Players have to be able to fail successfully.
If a hitter starts thinking when he is in the batter’s box, he is done and
might as well go sit down. A successful hitter doesn’t think – he reacts. A pitcher can’t get rattled by an error
behind him, that first walk or home run allowed, or that blooper that drops in.
He has to trust himself to get out of a
jam.
That brings me to a philosophical question. Do fans play a role in the success or failure
of young players? I would argue yes,
because we can contribute to or diminish self-confidence. What would it do to your confidence if you
read and heard every day that you were going to be a bust? Most prospects are 20ish
year old kids. Many have never been to
college. It must be a lot of pressure to
know that if you don’t make it as a major leaguer you don’t have any other
marketable skills to earn a living. Most
players in the minor leagues did not sign for huge bonuses. Among those that did, many quickly spent that
money helping family members, paying agents, taxes, etc. or simply wasted it on
toys. What about those who have the
pressure of supporting a wife and family?
Talk about pressure. Most prospects
have toiled in the minor leagues for several years, living below the poverty
line and only getting paid during the season.
I am guessing it is not very easy to find decent off-season jobs since
employers know you will be gone as soon as spring training arrives. How many of
them have parents that can afford to support them during this long process? Not
a lot of confidence building factors here.
I know we tell the players to turn off the noise and not listen/or read
what the fans say. But if you were 20
years old, just becoming famous, how many of you could resist reading what your
fans think of you?
I think there is a tendency among fans to treat prospects like
toys at Christmas. We look through the
catalogue and find players we just have to have. But, then we play with them for a little
while, get bored (or worse yet, break them) and move on to the next new toy. If you were that prospect, what would that do
for your confidence? Baseball is a game
of patience my friends. Rare is the
player that has immediate success at the MLB level.
My resolution for the 2014 season and beyond is to exercise patience
and see if I can help these kids succeed by giving them the opportunity to
learn from failure. I will remember the
role opportunity plays and that 500 ABS in one season is not the same as 500
ABS scattered over 3 seasons for building confidence. I will remember that power is usually the
last tool to develop. I will remember
that control in a pitcher is not solely a function of mechanics. Some pitchers with extreme self-confidence
have a higher walk rate because they will not give in. Now, the 30+ year old guys with lots of
experience? To me, they’re fair game because they should be mature enough to
take it and wear it.
And, yes let the cries of “homerism” ring out. But it seems to me like there are far more
articles predicting failure of a prospect than success. This would be a good exercise for the Stat
Rats. Among the blogs and twitter, what are
the overall PA (positive articles) and NA (negative articles) for all top 100
prospects? Not individually, but
collectively. Ultimately, performance is
the true measure of success. But for me,
a prospect’s ability is not usually representative in a players first continuous
year at the MLB level. But hopefully, the Baseball Gods will look favorably
upon enough of our youngsters that we will have many happy Octobers for the next
10 years or more.
