Part 1 of 4 - Are We Getting Any Better?

Where is the Astros farm system in terms of rebuilding?  That seems like a fairly straightforward question, but it turns out that there are so many factors involved that, in my analysis, one thing led to another and to another and to another.  I’m still not sure that I know the answer to the question, but I think I now have a better understanding of the system as a whole.  Read on to be frustrated and encouraged, often simultaneously.

2011 was not only a bad year for the Astros major league club, it was also a bad year for the Astros minor league teams as a whole.  How bad?  Out of 30 farm systems, this is how we ranked as a whole in six areas:

Win Percentage – 30 out of 30

ERA – 30 out of 30

WHIP – 30 out of 30

BA – 18 out of 30

OBP – 19 out of 30

SLG – 23 out of 30

It's nice to see that we're not dead last in the hitting categories, but the rankings are not exactly encouraging.  When I saw those numbers, I questioned whether or not we were actually getting any better.  I sensed that we were, but if so, what could explain this.  Here is part of what I found.

Knowing that it takes several years for players to work their way through the system and knowing that the Astros drafts were almost universally panned from 2002 through 2007, I went back to look at the attrition rate at three years and at five years out, what prominent players, if any, came from that class and who remains in the Astros system from that class.

2002

53% out of system in three years

70% out of system in five years

Still in system - None

Notable players – Mitch Talbot

2003

68% out of system in three years

88% out of system in five years

Still in system – None

Notable players – Jason Hirsh, Josh Anderson

2004

52% out of system in three years

82% out of system in five years

Still in system – Brad James (free agent) & J.R. Towles (free agent)

Notable players – Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist, Troy Patton, Drew Sutton, J.R. Towles

2005

63% out of system in three years

78% out of system in five years

Still in system – Brian Bogusevic, Brandon Barnes, Koby Clemens (free agent)

Notable players – Brian Bogusevic, Tommy Manzella

2006

64% out of system in three years

86% out of system in five years

Still in system – Sergio Perez, Jimmy VanOstrand, Bud Norris, Chris Johnson

Notable players – Bud Norris, Chris Johnson

2007

79% out of system in three years

91% out of system in five years

Still in system – Collin DeLome, Kyle Greenwalt, Colton Pitkin

Notable players – None

Let’s carry this forward and look at Bobby Heck’s first two drafts

2008

44% out of system in three years

Still in system – 18 players (3 in majors)

Notable players (to date) – Jason Castro, Jordan Lyles, J.B. Shuck

2009

50% out of system in three years

Still in system – 18 players (1 in majors)

Notable players (to date) – J.D. Martinez, Dallas Keuchel

I think it is safe to argue that the farm system bottomed out in 2007 and that we are still feeling the repercussions from those earlier bad drafts in terms of depth in the system.  Because of that, I will be using 2007 as the starting point in the next portions of my analysis.

I will leave you with one last stat in this part of my analysis – average win percentage of Astros farm system teams, as a whole.

From 2002 to 2006 - .525 Average Win Percentage

From 2007 to 2011 - .427 Average Win Percentage

In Part 2, we will look at the historical make-up of the farm teams and how that may reflect the strength of the draft classes and other circumstances.