Part 2 of 4 - Are We Getting Any Better?

For Part 1 of this analysis, go here.

Based on a look at the historical make-up of the AAA and AA Astros teams, I was able to determine when drafted players are most likely to make it to those levels on average.  Obviously there will be over-achievers like J.D. Martinez that will zoom through the system and there will be younger players like Javaris Reynolds that may very well take a bit longer, but on average this is when most of the drafted players got to or are projected to get to those levels:

AAA

2002 – 1997 to 1999 drafts

2003 – 1998 to 2000 drafts

2004 – 1999 to 2001 drafts

2005 – 2000 to 2002 drafts

2006 – 2001 to 2003 drafts

2007 – 2002 to 2004 drafts

2008 – 2003 to 2005 drafts

2009 – 2004 to 2006 drafts

2010 – 2005 to 2007 drafts

2011 – 2006 to 2008 drafts

2012 – 2007 to 2009 drafts

2013 – 2008 to 2010 drafts

AA

2002 – 1998 to 2000 drafts

2003 – 1999 to 2001 drafts

2004 – 2000 to 2002 drafts

2005 – 2001 to 2003 drafts

2006 – 2002 to 2004 drafts

2007 – 2003 to 2005 drafts

2008 – 2004 to 2006 drafts

2009 – 2005 to 2007 drafts

2010 – 2006 to 2008 drafts

2011 – 2007 to 2009 drafts

2012 – 2008 to 2010 drafts

In looking at these projections, starting in 2012 in Corpus Christi and starting in 2013 in Oklahoma City, Bobby Heck will have to own those teams in terms of performance as his own draft picks work their way up the food chain.

But as you well know, no minor league team is made up completely of draft picks.  This led me to look at the historical make-up of the minor league teams to see if I could find any factors there that impacted performance of the system as a whole.

These percentages are based on the approximately 24-29 players on any given team in any given season who got the majority of the IP, AB’s and games played.  It does not include every player listed on the roster for the entire season.  Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.  “Other” includes free agents, waiver claims, players obtained by trades and non-Latin NDFA’s.  I did not include the GCL team as it only started in 2009 or the DSL team for obvious reasons.

Some observations based on this table:

The 2007 draft class (highlighted for your convenience) quickly fizzles out.  In particular you can look at Salem/Lancaster for an illustration of this.  Each year in High-A, the draft class from two years prior is the largest group until 2009 when the 2008 class was pressed into early service.

The poor draft classes from 2002 forward take a toll on the AA and AAA teams as well.  In 2007, 52% of the primary players on the Round Rock team were players who had been drafted.  The average of drafted players from 2008 to 2011 was 32%.  In Corpus, drafted players made up 60% and 70% of the primary players on the 2007 and 2008 teams, and then averaged 48% in 2009 to 2011 (with a slight uptick in 2011).

There are probably other observations that can be taken from the table, but I will leave that to the reader at this point.  In summary, the 2002 through 2007 draft classes have had a definite negative impact on the farm system, but that impact is starting to fade as the new players make their way through the system.

In Part 3, we will look at age, injuries and other factors that have impacted the farm system.