MLB Draft Deep Dive: Cincinnati Reds

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

CINCINNATI REDS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 951 | Signed 599 | Pitchers Signed 328 | Position Players Signed 271
Total WAR 289.6
Total Players to MLB 83

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 7 to MLB | WAR 45.4 | High WAR 17.4, OF Adam Dunn, 2nd rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 4.7 | High WAR 4.4, 1B Ben Broussard, 2nd rd
2000 | 4 to MLB | WAR (0.6) | High WAR 0.7, RHP Dustin Moseley, 1st rd
2001 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2002 | 2 to MLB | WAR 69.3 | High WAR 58.8, C Joey Votto, 2nd rd
2003 | 3 to MLB | WAR 3.0 | High WAR 3.4, OF Chris Dickerson, 16th rd
2004 | 4 to MLB | WAR 3.6 | High WAR 4.0, RHP Homer Bailey, 1st rd
2005 | 7 to MLB | WAR 31.0 | High WAR 18.9, OF Jay Bruce, 1st rd
2006 | 9 to MLB | WAR 36.8 | High WAR 24.1, 2B Justin Turner, 7th rd
2007 | 7 to MLB | WAR 43.6 | High WAR 23.8, 3B Todd Frazier, 1st rd
2008 | 5 to MLB | WAR 7.4 | High WAR 9.1, 1B Yonder Alonso, 1st rd
2009 | 6 to MLB | WAR 30.9 | High WAR 15.6, RHP Mike Leake, 1st rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.6 | High WAR 13.5, C Yasmani Grandal, 1st rd
2011 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.6) | High WAR 2.6, LHP Tony Cingrani, 3rd rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.9) | High WAR 0.4, OF Jesse Winker, 1st rd
2013 | 7 to MLB | WAR 4.2 | High WAR 3.4, RHP Michael Lorenzon, 1st rd
2014 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.3 | High WAR 0.3, SS Alex Blandino, 1st rd
2015 | 2 to MLB | WAR (1.1) | High WAR (0.1), SS Blake Trahan, 3rd rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of 1B Joey Votto (2002, 2nd round, 58.8 WAR) and the high total WAR is also from 2002. Votto has spent his entire career with the Reds (12 seasons to date), appearing in six All-Star games and earning the National League MVP in 2010 and a Gold Glove in 2011. The only other signed player from the Reds 2002 Draft class to appear in the big leagues is OF Chris Donorfia (19th round, 10.5 WAR). Donorfia played two seasons for the Reds before being traded to Oakland (April 2007) in a very lopsided trade which gave the Reds a total of 19.2 innings of MLB pitching and a -0.1 WAR.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 29 Signed | 17 Pitchers | 12 Position Players
23 College | 21 Signed | 14 Pitchers | 7 Position Players
3 JC/CC | 2 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 2 Position Players
15 HS/NS | 6 Signed | 3 Pitchers | 3 Position Players

Notable: The Reds received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round B). They signed their top 12 picks, but failed to sign seven of their next 12 picks with the top holdout being 12th round high school lefty Josiah Sightler (SC).

PITCHERS
Of the 17 pitchers signed (15 RHP, 2 LHP), all but one (college right-hander Noah Davis, 11th round) logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Advanced A) and one of them debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Reds. Another Reds 2018 Draft pick, RHP Josiah Gray (see below), was included in this December 2018 trade to the Dodgers and now appears among their Top 30 prospects.

Top Prospects

RHP Lyon Richardson, 2nd round, Jensen Beach HS (FL), Rk
29 IP | 11 G / 11 GS | 7.14 ERA | 1.828 WHIP | 16 BB : 24 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Josiah Gray, 2nd round, LeMoyne College, Rk
52.1 IP | 12 G / 12 GS | 2.58 ERA | 0.879 WHIP | 17 BB : 59 K
(Traded to the Dodgers in December 2018)

(I would have been more impressed by Gray's debut had the Reds promoted him above the rookie level during the season. But given that the Reds did not have a Short Season A affiliate in 2018, it's somewhat understandable. Byrne, on the other hand, spent his entire 2018 season with the Advanced A Florida State League which makes his numbers play up.)

RHP Mike Byrne, 14th round, University of Florida, A+
21.2 IP | 19 G / 0 GS | 1.25 ERA | 1.338 WHIP | 10 BB : 17 K

In total, the Reds 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.73 ERA and a 1.396 WHIP over 467.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 12 position players signed (1B, 3B, SS, 5 OF, 4 C) logged at least some playing time. Two players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, one to Full Season A and one to Advanced A. Two of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Reds, both as Top 10 prospects.

Top Prospects

🔟 3B Jonathan India (R/R), 1st round, University of Florida, A
44 G | .240/.380/.433/.814 | 28 BB : 44 K

🔟 OF Mike Siani (L/L), 4th round, William Penn Charter School (PA), Rk
46 G | .288/.351/.386/.737 | 16 BB : 35 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

OF Drew Mount (L/R), 16th round, Kansas State University, Rk
65 G | .310/.362/.488/.850 | 18 BB : 40 K | 19 2B / 8 HR | 58 RBI

1B Rylan Thomas (R/R), 26th round, University of Central Florida, Rk
55 G | .257/.400/.492/.892 | 41 BB : 49 K | 12 2B / 10 HR

(Again, these numbers would be more impressive had these two college players been promoted above rookie ball.)

In total, the Reds 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .258/.351/.396/.747 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs

COMING NEXT
Milwaukee Brewers