Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Corpus Christi Season Preview and Corpus Christi Roster

Yesterday I posted a season preview for Oklahoma City and I felt quite comfortable in my projections for the team. Corpus Christi isn't going to be quite so easy. There will be significant talent on the team, but many of the players will be getting their first taste of AA and the very tough Texas League.

Of the pitchers, Ross Seaton at 23 will be the grizzled veteran of the group as he starts his third season at AA. He ended the 2012 season strongly and looks to be a strong anchor on the rotation. Jake Buchanan struggled in his first season at AA in 2012, but I think he can make the adjustments he needs to make to remind us why he was the Astros minor league pitcher of the year in 2011 despite pitching in the hitter friendly confines of The Hangar in Lancaster that year. Bobby Doran, Matt Heidenreich and Asher Wojciechowski all handled their mid-season promotions to AA very well and should build on their 2012 experience.

Three pitchers, however, will be getting their first taste of AA - R.J. Alaniz, David Martinez and Nick Tropeano. Tropeano has met every challenge he has been handed thus far. I think he will continue to do so. Martinez was the one constant in the 2012 Lancaster rotation and ended the season very strongly. I can see him struggling initially at AA and then making the necessary adjustments much as he did at High A. I'll admit that I was surprised by Alaniz' promotion to AA. The 21-year old went on the DL on July 26th and did not pitch again last season. He is the biggest wild card in the rotation.

As to the bullpen, Jason Stoffel dominated at Corpus Christi in 2012. I see no reason for that to change. Andrew Robinson struggled early at Lancaster last season, but then became their most effective bullpen arm for much of the season. Alex Sogard will be getting a second season at AA, while fellow lefty Pat Urckfitz is getting back to AA for the first time since 2011. Both had solid seasons in 2012. The wild card in the bullpen is Jorge de Leon. De Leon had a very tough year in 2012 as the Astros experimented with using him in the rotation, an experiment which I felt failed miserably. He settled in to be much more effective later in the season when he was used solely out of the bullpen.

In 2012, the team ERA was 4.06 and the WHIP was 1.332. I think that Ross Seaton, Nick Tropeano and Asher Wojciechowski will outperform those numbers, but the group as a whole will likely put up numbers that are slightly north of those.

The only position players who spent significant time at AA in 2012 are Austin Wates and minor league Rule 5 pick Michael Burgess. Ben Orloff, Enrique Hernandez, George Springer, Rene Garcia and Ryan McCurdy all got their feet wet at AA, but that's about it. None of them had enough at-bats at the level to draw any conclusions about how they will ultimately handle it.

To complicate things further, one never knows how hitting stats at wind-blown Lancaster will translate when a player is promoted to the less hitter-friendly Corpus Christi park. We will soon find that out with Erik Castro, Jonathan Meyer, Jiovanni Mier and Domingo Santana. They all spent the entire season at Lancaster and they all had pretty healthy slugging numbers. I think we can safely say that there will be some regression. The question is how much. Finally, Carlos Perez only played in 26 games at High A before getting promoted to AA. He may be in above his head offensively, at least to start, but his defensive skills are excellent.

The team batting line for 2012 was .268/.342/.410. I think that this team will put up a better batting average than that while putting up fairly equivalent on-base numbers. The slugging number will be driven in large part by the seasons that George Springer and Domingo Santana have.

This one is really, really difficult for me to predict. There are so many variables, but here goes nothing. I think this team will struggle in the first half, similar to last season, but catch on fire in the second half, also similar to last season. I think they will make it to the playoffs, but with fewer wins than last season. In 2012, they were 81-59. In 2013, I predict 78-62.


This is the opening day roster as we know it today. I will update it with any changes that may be made before Thursday's opening game which will be at home vs. Springfield. The schedule can be found here and all games will be available on MiLB.tv.

PITCHERS
Ruben (R.J.) Alaniz
Jake Buchanan
Jorge De Leon
Bobby Doran
Matt Heidenreich
David Martinez
Andrew Robinson
Ross Seaton
Alex Sogard*
Jason Stoffel
Nick Tropeano
Pat Urckfitz*
Asher Wojciechowski

CATCHERS
Rene Garcia
Ryan McCurdy
Carlos Perez

INFIELDERS
Erik Castro*
Enrique Hernandez
Jonathan Meyer
Jiovanni Mier
Ben Orloff

OUTFIELDERS
Michael Burgess*
Domingo Santana
George Springer
Austin Wates

*Left-handed

Next Up: The High A Lancaster JetHawks (tomorrow if I get it written)

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