The past year has been a very difficult one for me personally and, at times, that has kept me from doing some of the things I would like to have done with the blog, this season in particular. I have far more ideas than I have time to bring them to fruition. I do, after all, have that pesky "real job" that pays the bills while I follow my passion. I would much prefer to do this all day long, but a couple hundred dollars a year in ad revenue doesn't exactly pay the mortgage.
But I digress, as is often the case. When I started the blog, I quickly recognized that there were some very talented players in the organization, but that they were few and far between. For example, when I looked at minor league depth at the end of the 2011 minor league season, the depth chart for lefty starters at AA and above included only Dallas Keuchel, the recently acquired Brett Oberholtzer, Xavier Cedeno who had since been converted to relief, 28-year old Ryan Rowland-Smith and 31-year old Andy Van Hekken who pitched about half of his games in relief. That was it at the higher levels.
Fast forward to 2014. Keuchel and Oberholtzer have graduated. Rudy Owens is in the mix. Luis Cruz, Tommy Shirley, David Rollins, Josh Hader and Colton Cain populate the upper rungs of lefty starter depth with other pitchers such as Kent Emanual, Evan Grills and Brian Holmes nipping at their heels. The lower rungs of the system have interesting lefties such as Reymin Guduan, Chris Lee, Salvador Montano, Cristopher Santamaria, Austin Nicely and knuckleballer Blaine Sims in their midst. Before, we were hoping and praying that Keuchel and Oberholtzer could take the reins from Wandy and Happ because there was no one else in the system even close to being ready. That is, thankfully, no longer the case. The Astros have options.
Which brings me to this thought. Fall in love with a minor league player in the Astros system (or a major league player for that matter) at your own risk. There are still so many changes to come before the perennially contending Astros of the future are more or less in place. Look at the outfield. Who will be on that team in 3 to 5 years? Will Dexter Fowler, L.J. Hoes and Alex Presley be long gone? Will Marisnick and Grossman stick? We all assume that Springer and Santana will be on that future team. But where does that leave Aplin, Tucker, DeShields and Teoscar Hernandez? What about the next wave of players, including Brett Phillips and Danry Vasquez? And don't forget about Derek Fisher, Jason Martin and others that are still on short season teams. Where will they be at this point next year?
I've alluded to this before, but I'll mention it again. Last May after my trip to Lancaster, I ran into Jeff Luhnow at Minute Maid Park. He asked me about my trip, and I gushed over Andrew Aplin. In my enthusiasm for Aplin, I asked Luhnow, "Can we keep him?" He laughed, but he knew what I meant. The Astros are not going to carry 8 outfielders. Springer, Santana, Teoscar Hernandez, Aplin, Tucker, Phillips, DeShields and Vasquez aren't all going to stick with the team. Minor league fans will lose favorite players, just like we did last week losing Austin Wates and Kiké Hernandez, as well as Jarred Cosart. There just aren't enough spots for all the players we want to see in an Astros uniform.
The good news is that these players aren't being blocked. They are being given the opportunity to succeed with other teams. I will miss some of them dreadfully, but at the same time, I am so very happy for the opportunity that they have been given.
There will be regrets at times. I'm hoping that the Astros don't lose another Johan Santana, but the reality is that it could happen. Because knowing who will succeed at the major league level is an inexact science that even the best of the Decision Scientists will not be able to predict with 100% accuracy. But it is a good problem to have. When I spoke with Lancaster Manager Rodney Linares two years ago about Kiké, he predicted that there would be some tough decisions ahead for the Astros when it came to players like Kiké. He called it "a good mess."
And that's what's happened over the last three years that I've been following these young men. The Astros system has gone from simply being a mess to being "a good mess." And I'm happy to have witnessed the transformation.
I'd be lying if I told you that I know what the next year will bring for the Astros, for this blog or for me personally, but I hope that you will continue to join me for the ride. Thank you for reading. And thank you for your support.
Best of luck to those friends of WTHB to whom we've had to say goodbye this season. Thanks for sharing your time and your stories with me. Godspeed.
Kiké Hernandez
Bobby Doran
Andy Simunic
Austin Wates
Alex Sogard
Michael Dimock
Andrew Robinson
Chris Epps
Dan Gulbransen
Erik Castro
Jarred Cosart
Justin Gomiskey
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