2018 Astros Consensus Top 32 Prospect Rankings

All of the major prospect rankings for 2018 are now in (see separate rankings from Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and FanGraphs below). I have taken all of these rankings and compiled them into this 2018 Astros Consensus Top Prospect list.

Forrest Whitley - August 2017

Photo by Jayne Hansen

The top 25 prospects were on at least three of the four rankings and the bottom seven were on two of the four rankings. The consensus rankings are, more or less, an average of the player's rankings on the list, with the exception of BP's "Next 10" which were all assigned a fixed median number (which was averaged with the other rankings) since they were not given an actual numerical ranking. Now that that's clear as mud, here is the consensus ranking list ...

CONSENSUS ASTROS TOP 32 LIST
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (on 4 of 4 ranking lists)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (4/4)
3T. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (4/4)
3T. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (4/4)
5. SS Freudis Nova (4/4)
6. RHP David Paulino (3/4)
7. RHP Jorge Alcala (3/4)
8T. RHP Hector Perez (4/4)
8T. RHP Rogelio Armenteros (4/4)
10. LHP Cionel Perez (4/4)
11. RHP Corbin Martin (4/4)
12. 3B J.D. Davis (4/4)

13. RHP Jairo Solis (4/4)

14. OF Gilberto Celestino (4/4)

15. 3B Joe Perez (3/4)

16. SS Jonathan Arauz (4/4)

17T. C Garrett Stubbs (4/4)

17T. LHP Framber Valdez (3/4)

19. OF Ronnie Dawson (3/4)

20. RHP Dean Deetz (3/4)

21. RHP Riley Ferrell (3/4)

22. OF J.J. Matijevic (4/4)

23. OF Myles Straw (4/4)

24. RHP Cristian Javier (3/4)

25. RHP Jandel Gustave (3/4)

The following players were included on only 2 of the 4 rankings used:

26. LHP Patrick Sandoval (2/4)

27. OF Carlos Machado (2/4)

28. RHP Brandon Bailey (2/4)

29. 3B/C Abraham Toro-Hernandez (2/4)

30. C Chuckie Robinson (2/4)

31. LHP Brett Adcock (2/4)

32. SS Miguelangel Sierra (2/4)

Others who were listed on only one of the four rankings: C Max Stassi (FG), C Nathan Perry (BP), OF Drew Ferguson (MLBP), LHP Reymin Guduan (FG), 1B A.J. Reed (BA), RHP Tyler Ivey (FG), RHP Elian Rodriguez (BA), RHP Nick Hernandez (FG), RHP Peter Solomon (FG), RHP Brandon Bielak (FG), IF Josh Rojas (FG), RHP Kyle Serrano (FG), 3B Randy Cesar (FG) and SS Deury Carrasco (FG).

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS - December 5, 2017
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (10th on the BP top 101 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (20th on the BP top 101 overall list)
3. RHP J.B. Bukauskas
4. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez
5. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
6. IF Jonathan Arauz
7. OF Gilberto Celestino
8. RHP David Paulino
9. 3B Colin Moran - traded to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole
10. RHP Corbin Martin

BP's Next 10 (not ranked; in alphabetical order)
3B J.D. Davis
OF Carlos Machado
SS Freudis Nova
LHP Cionel Perez
RHP Hector Perez
C Nathan Perry
LHP Patrick Sandoval
RHP Jairo Solis
OF Myles Straw
C Garrett Stubbs
Plus One
OF J.J. Matijevic

BASEBALL AMERICA - January 18, 2018 + Prospect Handbook released in early February
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (10th on the BA top 100 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (15th on the BA top 100 overall list)
3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (62nd on the BA top 100 overall list)
4. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (76th on the BA top 100 overall list)
5. SS Freudis Nova
6. RHP Jairo Solis
7. RHP Hector Perez
8. RHP Jorge Alcala
(3B Colin Moran was between Alcala and Paulino in Handbook; traded to Pittsburgh)
9. RHP David Paulino
10. 3B J.D. Davis
11. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
12. LHP Cionel Perez
13. LHP Framber Valdez
14. 3B Joe Perez
15. RHP Corbin Martin
16. OF Myles Straw
17. C Garrett Stubbs
(OF Jason Martin was between Stubbs and Celestino in Handbook; traded to Pittsburgh)
18. OF Gilberto Celestino
19. OF Ronnie Dawson
20. RHP Dean Deetz
21. SS Jonathan Arauz
22. 1B A.J. Reed
23. RHP Cristian Javier
24. OF J.J. Matijevic
25. RHP Riley Ferrell
26. RHP Jandel Gustave
27. RHP Elian Rodriguez
28. SS Miguelangel Sierra

Note that the above numbers were adjusted to exclude players who were traded.

MLB PIPELINE - February 23, 2018
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (9th on the MLBP top 100 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (17th on the MLBP top 100 overall list)
3. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (76th on the MLBP top 100 overall list)
4. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez
5. SS Freudis Nova
6. LHP Cionel Perez
7. RHP Jorge Alcala
8. RHP David Paulino
9. 3B J.D. Davis
10. RHP Corbin Martin
11. RHP Hector Perez
12. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
13. RHP Jairo Solis
14. 3B Joe Perez
15. OF Ronnie Dawson
16. LHP Framber Valdez
17. OF Drew Ferguson
18. RHP Dean Deetz
19. RHP Cristian Javier
20. RHP Riley Ferrell
21. OF Myles Straw
22. SS Jonathan Arauz
23. OF Gilberto Celestino
24. C Garrett Stubbs
25. OF J.J. Matijevic
26. RHP Jandel Gustave
27. C Chuckie Robinson
28. LHP Brett Adcock
29. 3B/C Abraham Toro-Hernandez
30. RHP Brandon Bailey

FANGRAPHS - February 23, 2018
1. RHP Forrest Whitley (8th on the FG top 100 overall list)
2. OF Kyle Tucker (10th on the FG top 100 overall list)
3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (44th on the FG top 100 overall list)
4. RHP J.B. Bukauskas
5. RHP Hector Perez
6. LHP Cionel Perez
7. SS Freudis Nova
8. RHP Corbin Martin
9. 3B J.D. Davis
10. OF Gilberto Celestino
11. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
12. RHP Jairo Solis
13. C Max Stassi
14. RHP Jorge Alcala
15. C Garrett Stubbs
16. SS Jonathan Arauz
17. RHP Riley Ferrell
18. RHP Brandon Bailey
19. 3B Joe Perez
20. LHP Reymin Guduan
21. RHP Dean Deetz
22. 3B/C Abraham Toro-Hernandez
23. OF Ronnie Dawson
24. OF J.J. Matijevic
25. LHP Framber Valdez
26. RHP Jandel Gustave
27. RHP Tyler Ivey
Other Prospects of Note, In Order of Preference
28. LHP Patrick Sandoval
29. RHP Cristian Javier
30. OF Carlos Machado
31. C Chuckie Robinson
32. RHP Nick Hernandez
33. RHP Peter Solomon
34. RHP Brandon Bielak
35. LHP Brett Adcock
36. SS Miguelangel Sierra
37. IF Josh Rojas
38. RHP Kyle Serrano
39. OF Myles Straw
40. 3B Randy Cesar
41. SS Deury Carrasco

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As a reminder, these were the players who were consensus prospects in 2017. Players had to appear on at least three of the four rankings used and are in order by averaged rankings.

2017 Consensus Top Prospect List

1. RHP Francis Martes - Graduated to MLB
2. OF Kyle Tucker
3. RHP David Paulino - Missed 80 games in 2017 for failed drug test; followed by surgery in October to remove a bone spur from his elbow
4. RHP Franklin Perez - Included in the trade for Justin Verlander
5. RHP Forrest Whitley
6. OF Derek Fisher - Graduated to MLB
7. OF Teoscar Hernandez - Included in the trade for Francisco Liriano
8. OF Ramon Laureano - Traded to A's for Brandon Bailey
9. C Garrett Stubbs
10. OF Daz Cameron - Included in the trade for Justin Verlander
11. SS Miguelangel Sierra
12. 3B J.D. Davis - Has not exceeded rookie limits
13. RHP Jandel Gustave - Missed the majority of the 2017 season after undergoing TJ surgery
14. 3B Colin Moran - Included in the trade for Gerrit Cole

Additionally, these players appeared on two of the four lists and are in order of averaged rankings.

IF Yulieski Gurriel - Graduated to MLB
1B A.J. Reed - Exceeded rookie limits in 2016
OF Gilberto Celestino
SS Anibal Sierra
LHP Cionel Perez
OF Ronnie Dawson
IF Jonathan Arauz
SS Freudis Nova
C Jake Rogers - Included in trade for Justin Verlander
OF Jason Martin - Included in the trade for Gerrit Cole
1B Yordan Alvarez
RHP Brady Rodgers - Had TJ surgery in May 2017
OF Stephen Wrenn
RHP James Hoyt - Graduated to MLB

Also, check out my series on players who are Beyond the Top 30
Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen
Third Basemen
Center Field
Right Field
Left Field
Catchers
Utility Players
LHP
RHP

Baseball America Astros Top 10 Prospect List

Unfortunately, no time for analysis or reflection, but here is BA's Top 10 Astros Prospect List "hot off the presses." Enjoy!

Baseball America Top 10 Astros Prospects

Baseball America unveiled their Top 10 Astros Prospects today and they are ... drumroll please ...

1. SS Carlos Correa (1)
2. OF George Springer (3)
3. RHP Mark Appel (N/A)
4. RHP Mike Foltynewicz (5)
5. RHP Lance McCullers (4)
6. RHP Vincent Velasquez (13)
7. 1B Jon Singleton (2)
8. OF Domingo Santana (11)
9. RHP Michael Feliz (Not ranked)
10. RHP Asher Wojciechowski (14)

In parentheses after the name, I have indicated the player's rank in last year's BA Prospect Handbook. Those who fell off the Top 10 list from last year are Delino DeShields (6), Rio Ruiz (8), Nick Tropeano (9) and Nolan Fontana (10). (Also, Jarred Cosart who was 7th on last year's list graduated by virtue of his time in the majors.)

Most of those who fell off the Top Ten did so due to the increased depth in the system, along with having several near major-league ready prospects climbing the list. They will likely still be in BA's Top 30 when the Handbook is released (which should be very soon).

The most notable inclusion in this year's Top Ten is Michael Feliz who garnered much attention for his excellent work in Tri-City in 2013. His addition to the list is not a big surprise for those who have followed him closely.

I recommend reading the entire article which includes a Best Tools list featuring a few players who didn't make the Top 10 (and who definitely bear watching).

Once the BA Handbook is released and Jonathan Mayo publishes his Astros Top 20 sometime over the next few weeks, I will once again pull together a consensus Top 10 list pulled from various sources. Here is the list from last year.

Talking Astros Prospects with John Manuel of Baseball America

Last week I caught up with John Manuel of Baseball America by phone to talk about the recently released Baseball America 2013 Prospect Handbook. Our conversation was wide-ranging as he helped me fill in the holes in my knowledge of several players, prospects and non-prospects alike. But there were four players who were the focus of much of our conversation.

Earlier this month, I posted a consensus Astros top prospect list which averaged rankings from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com and John Sickels of Minor League Ball (SBNation). One thing that stood out from that list was the complete agreement on eight of the top ten prospects:

SS Carlos Correa
1B Jonathan Singleton
OF George Springer
RHP Lance McCullers
RHP Mike Foltynewicz
2B Delino DeShields
RHP Jarred Cosart
3B Rio Ruiz

All five sources ranked these eight individuals in their Top 10 list without exception. After that the lists started to diverge. And not surprisingly, that divergence proved to be the focus of my discussion with Manuel. The next four prospects as ranked by Baseball America were:

RHP Nick Tropeano
SS Nolan Fontana
OF Domingo Santana
SS Jonathan Villar

We embarked on our discussion of these four players when I commented on his projected 2016 line-up. He showed Tropeano as the fifth starter and I remarked that a rotation with Tropeano as the fifth starter would be a very strong rotation in my opinion. Manuel isn't sold on Tropeano's breaking ball, but admits that he's a sucker for Trope, "I probably shouldn't be as high on him as I am, but the change-up, the body, the increased velocity ... he's got a little moxie. Tropeano has a starter's mentality, a starter's makeup."

Nick Tropeano - Lancaster August 2012

Photo by Jayne Hansen

Manuel admitted that one could have ranked Tropeano, Fontana, Santana and Villar in any order, but ultimately it came down to ranking the lower risk players (Tropeano and Fontana) over the higher ceiling players (Santana and Villar), "That Top 12 is a very stout Top 12, but the guys at nine and ten - Tropeano and Fontana - are much safer bets than the guys at 11 and 12 so that's why they made the Top 10."

Fontana was the hardest of the four for Manuel to grade and slot into the rankings, but ultimately Manuel noted, "I happen to think that Nolan Fontana will be the safest college player in the draft. I have zero doubt that he'll be a big league player. I should probably have some doubt because he only hit .225 but the .464 on-base mattered a lot more. Sure hands, all those kind of things."

Of Santana, Manuel says, "My biggest question is his feel for hitting and his athleticism." He is somewhat concerned about Santana's strikeout rate and wonders if playing in hitter-friendly Lancaster has skewed his numbers, but admits that Santana's ceiling is high. "He looks the way you want a right-fielder to look. If he had grown up in the U.S., he'd probably be an outside linebacker or a defensive lineman or maybe an offensive lineman because he's mammoth." But what it may very well come down to, according to Manuel, is whether or not Santana proves to have the athleticism as a right-handed hitter "to see right-handed breaking balls and respond to them and lay off of them or hit them."

We also discussed Jonathan Villar at length, mainly because of my personal concerns about Villar based on his level of development thus far. Manuel certainly understood my skepticism, "You'd like to see him be adding a little more polish considering his experience level now. I think the reason we're skeptical is there's a lot of swing and miss there. He hasn't really toned that down too much. His strikeout rate was a little bit better last year in terms of Double A than it was the first year."

But Manuel also knows that it depends greatly to whom you talk about Villar, "Some of the guys who saw him right before he got hurt thought he was turning the corner, thought he was making more consistent contact and [were] liking his swing better. The reason I dropped him from four [in 2012] to 12 [this year] was my increased skepticism in the bat." Manuel knows that the Astros front office would disagree. There is "no question" that the Astros consider Villar a Top 10 prospect.

Manuel went on to say, "The tools are pretty outstanding in every other way. He can help a team without being even an average offensive player. He has better defensive tools than anyone else on the 40-man roster who's an infielder. Better quickness, quick feet, arm strength, range to both sides." His defense can be erratic due to his tendency to speed up the game too much, but Manuel doesn't seem too concerned with that aspect of Villar's game.

When all is said and done, it is encouraging that the Astros system depth has grown to the point that experts are having trouble squeezing all of the talented lower risk and higher ceiling prospects into the Top 10. That is a problem that I can live with. I would encourage anyone interested in minor league prospects to buy a copy of the Baseball America 2013 Prospect Handbook which includes organization overviews and rankings, as well as the Top 30 prospects for each organization, complete with scouting reports.

Organizational Rankings of the Astros Farm System

Several baseball writers have come out with their organizational rankings of the baseball farm systems as of late. It is gratifying to see that those looking in from the outside are seeing the vast improvement in depth and talent in the Astros system.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball (SB Nation)
2012 Ranking - 25th
2013 Ranking - 10th (revised from 11th after the Jed Lowrie trade)

Baseball America (from the recently released Prospect Handbook)
2012 Ranking - 17th
2013 Ranking - 9th

Keith Law of ESPN (Insider only)
2012 Ranking - 27th
2013 Ranking - 4th

Baseball Prospectus
2012 Ranking - 26th
2013 Ranking - 9th

It is important to note that many of the Astros top prospects came into the system before GM Jeff Luhnow arrived on the scene. Luhnow has done a fantastic job in bringing in new talent and shoring up the depth of the system, but I'm sure that he would be the first to admit that he is also the beneficiary of the growth and maturation of prospects that he inherited. The combination is working.

Luhnow and his team did an incredible job with working the new draft system in 2012, and I expect nothing less from his team in 2013. I would not be surprised to see the Astros become a Top 5 farm system when these rankings come out next year about this time. It is my hope that, once we get there, we stay there for a long time to come.

Baseball America's Top Prospects

Buried in the angst of the AL move, this came out from Baseball America regarding the Astros top prospects.  I haven't even had the time or energy to read the full report yet.  Enjoy!

Baseball America's Prospect Review

In case you missed this from earlier in the week, Baseball America indicates that the Astros organization is showing much improvement down on the farm.  Based on all prospects, we're probably ranked around the bottom of the middle third of teams, but after erasing "graduates" from the equation and giving full-season players greater weight, we're right smack in the middle of the pack.  As the article states:

"The last time the Astros weren't in the bottom five of our organizational talent rankings was in 2007, when they ranked 22nd. They ranked 26th last year, 30th in 2009 and 2010 and 29th in 2008."

So things are looking up in the Astros minor-league system.  Give the full article a read if you have a chance.