2015 Lancaster Offensive Efficiency

2015 Lancaster Offensive Efficiency

By Jeremy Schmidt ( @Jeremy_IP_TTM and @TXLScouting )

When you think about the Cal League, Lancaster in particular, a launching pad offensive environment comes to mind. The 2015 Lancaster JetHawks took full advantage of their extreme hitter friendly ballpark to lead the league with 6.34 runs per game and 174 homeruns. When looking at the offensive efficiency numbers in a league with such polar extreme hitting conditions as the Cal League the averages relative to the league average will usually have a wide spread. The 2015 edition of the JetHawks had a team OE of 48.43 which was nearly 19% better than the league average of 40.72. As talented as the team was the park effects of The Hangar further inflated the offensive numbers. Below are the OE numbers for the JetHawk players that had at least 100 plate appearances. [Click here for the Offensive Efficiency formula.]

1. A.J. Reed - 62.03
2. Sean McMullen - 58.85
3. Chase McDonald - 57.12
4. Brett Phillips - 55.87
5. Derek Fisher - 53.00
6. J.D. Davis - 50.86
7. Ronnie Mitchell - 50.05
8. Jamie Ritchie - 48.25
9. James Ramsay - 47.54
10. Mott Hyde - 46.64
11. Jack Mayfield - 46.55
12. Danry Vasquez - 45.85
13. Marc Wik - 43.88
14. Alex Bregman - 43.06
15. Alfredo Gonzalez - 42.26
16. Brian Holberton - 37.59
17. Jose Fernandez - 28.05

A.J. Reed really took off to start the season and played his way to AA where he continued to mash. Sean McMullen took full advantage of the positive run scoring environment in his short stint with the team; he should start next season back in Lancaster. Chase McDonald finished second in the league in homeruns with 30; aside from his power numbers, McDonald’s stats are nearly identical to last season at Quad Cities. Brett Phillips was spectacular, although he was hurt on the base paths getting caught stealing 43% of the time. Derek Fisher was very good after joining the team; he showed a great power and speed combination in spite of a lower than expected batting average. J.D. Davis matched his numbers from 2014 at a higher level which is a very good sign going forward. Ronnie Mitchell finished with double digit totals in doubles, triples, and homeruns. Jamie Ritchie after his late season call up racked up 25 walks against just 27 strikeouts in only 164 plate appearances; he is another in a very deep catching position for the Astros’ farm system. James Ramsay led the team in hits with 160 but his efficiency number was hurt by being caught stealing 12 times. Mott Hyde in half a season at Lancaster played very well, improving his stock as a 26th round pick. Danry Vasquez played his way to a AA promotion even though his traditional stats didn’t line up with his OE number. Vasquez struggled with the Hooks. Marc Wik is a solid on base player, but it looks like he will end up being squeezed out by other outfielders with louder tools. [Note from Jayne: Wik is being used as a super utility player. As long as he continues to do a lot of things reasonably well, I think he has the opportunity to fill that niche role for some team at some point.] Alex Bregman, the Astros’ first pick in the 2015 draft, played very well in Lancaster. His OE number was hurt by 4 caught stealing and grounding into 5 double plays in limited plate appearances in Lancaster. Alfredo Gonzalez didn’t hit for much power in limited time. Brian Holberton walked at a good rate but did not do much else at the plate. Jose Fernandez did not have a very good year at the plate and was subsequently demoted to Quad Cities.

Traditional statistics for the above players can be found here http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/cYote

Stay tuned for more covering the other Astros farm clubs.

2015 Fresno Grizzlies Offensive Efficiency

WTHB contributor Jeremy Schmidt has started a new blog in which he will be Scouting the Texas League. His first post focused on the 2015 Corpus Christi Hooks Offensive Efficiency. He has offered to look at the other Astros affiliates to see how the players performed offensively. First up, he'll be looking at the Fresno Grizzlies.

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2015 Fresno Grizzlies Offensive Efficiency

By Jeremy Schmidt ( @Jeremy_IP_TTM )

The 2015 Fresno Grizzlies were an offensive juggernaut for good stretches of the season on their way to the AAA National Championship. This is a look at how efficient the individual Astros farmhands were over the course of their time with Fresno. Essentially I boiled down the basic offensive and base running statistics readily available for minor league players and created a formula that shows how well each player controlled what they could control. I choose to leave Runs and Runs Batted In out of the formula because those stats are largely based on team performance. For the formula see this post on the Hooks.

1. Domingo Santana 58.47
2. Tyler White 57.17
3. Jon Singleton 53.04
4. Preston Tucker 52.76
5. Jonathan Villar 47.39
6. Matt Duffy 46.76
7. L.J. Hoes 45.56
8. Carlos Correa 44.95
9. Andrew Aplin 44.80
10. Nolan Fontana 41.76
11. Alex Presley 41.20
12. Max Stassi 40.06
13. Tony Kemp 38.91
14. Robbie Grossman 38.30
15. Joe Sclafani 36.96
16. Matt Dominguez 34.54
17. Tyler Heineman 33.86

For reference the Grizzlies as a whole had an OE score of 44.16. The PCL average was 42.91, so the Grizzlies were roughly 3% more efficient than the league. Four players were better than 20% more efficient than the league average player. Domingo Santana and Tyler White both had incredible seasons each posting an OPS over 1.000. Singleton continues to show his game is power and patience. Preston Tucker gave a preview to his rookie season. League MVP Matt Duffy was only the 6^th most efficient player on his team. Carlos Correa’s power did not present in his short AAA stint. Aplin and Fontana both walk a ton but don’t hit for much power, Fontana was hurt by a terrible base stealing year going only 6 for 17. Presley and Grossman underperformed what you would expect from guys with big league experience. Tony Kemp struggled to adjust to AAA, this could be an example of getting BABIP’d as his walk and strikeout numbers aren’t out of line with his track record, but I don’t have those numbers.

Ivy Leaguer Joe Sclafani’s OE number reflects his extreme lack of power this season. Matt Dominguez is the Brewers problem now. Tyler Heineman is around for his work behind the plate not at it. [Note from Jayne: I disagree with Jeremy on this point. Heineman had a slow start at AAA, but I think his offense will ultimately prove to be more than enough to make him above average offensively for the position.]

Stay tuned for more covering the other Astros farm clubs.

Before They Were Astros: 3B/1B Matt Duffy

Jeremy Schmidt is back with another entry in his "Before They Were Astros" series, this time looking back at Matt Duffy on the heels of the news that Duffy will be joining the Astros tomorrow in Arlington. You can also read more about Duffy in my February 2012 interview with him and this June 2013 one as well. You can find Schmidt on twitter at @Jeremy_IP_TTM.

Matt Duffy - May 2015

Photo by Jayne Hansen

Before They Were Astros: Matt Duffy

Matt Duffy has been called up to the Astros and is set to make his major league debut in Arlington against the Rangers this week. Duffy is a 6’3” 215 pound right handed corner infielder who the Astros drafted in the 20th round of the 2011 draft out of the University of Tennessee. Duffy, in what has become a trademark of Houston drafts, is a high OBP player. How did he get to this point in his career? Keep reading to find out.

Matt Duffy played his high school baseball at a small all boys parochial school in Needham, Massachusetts named St. Sebastian’s School. It is a small school by many standards supporting an enrollment of only 375. While there Duffy batted .542 with 7 home runs to lead his team to the Massachusetts Independent School League title in 2007. He also pitched a shutout in the championship game.

Duffy went on to enroll at the University of Vermont where, as a freshman, he played all 51 games for the Catamounts. He acquitted himself quite well slashing .308/.363/.455 as a 19 year old. Duffy also pitched in 5 games picking up 2 saves with a 2.57 ERA. Despite Duffy’s impressive season the Catamounts didn’t make it to postseason play after finishing the season 27-24 and in the middle of the pack in conference play.

Returning to Vermont for the 2009 season Duffy continued his excellent performance and exceeded his freshman numbers rather easily. As a sophomore Duffy lead the team hitting .388 with a near .500 on base percentage. He hit 13 homeruns while driving in 57 in 50 games all while walking more than he struck out. Again the team’s success did not match Duffy’s as they missed postseason play. Duffy was named the American East Player of the Year to put a cap on his season. Early in that sophomore season, Duffy found out that Vermont would be ending its baseball program which resulted in his transfer to Tennessee to finish out his college career.

Matt Duffy’s first season at the University of Tennessee would see him move from shortstop to third base as he started 53 of 56 games. Duffy responded well to tougher competition hitting .304/.382/.444 on the season. He performed better as the season progressed hit .348 in SEC play. The Vols didn’t fair quite so well finishing conference play 12-18 finishing 10 games back of Preston Tucker and Nolan Fontana’s Florida Gators.

Duffy after going undrafted as a junior returned to Tennessee for his senior season. Much like the improvement between his freshman and sophomore years at Vermont, Duffy improved on his previous year’s performance by upping his slash line .312/.429/.497 again while walking more than he struck out. There wasn’t much more Duffy could do for his team as he lead the Vols in doubles, RBIs, walks, HBP, and OPS all while starting all 54 games.

Matt Duffy was selected with the 610th pick of the 2011 draft by the Astros and began his pro career with the short season Tri-City Valley Cats after signing. He would preform well to finish in his first taste of pro ball sporting an OPS of .787. 2012 would see Duffy promoted to the A level Lexington Legends in the South Atlantic league. Here Duffy would solidify himself as an interesting prospect as his power began to develop turning in 16 homeruns and 32 doubles. He posted a .387 OBP aided by 41 (yes 41) HBP.

2013 would see Duffy’s timeline sped up as he continued to prove himself capable at each level. Duffy began 2013 in hitter friendly Lancaster where he slashed .323/.397/.553 with 19 homeruns and 84 RBI in exactly 100 games. That performance led to a promotion to AA Corpus Christi for the final month of the season. Duffy’s 2014 season would begin with 2 more months with the Hooks where he improved on his final month of 2013 to post a AA total of 73 games with a line of .285/.326/.457. Following his promotion to AAA Oklahoma City to finish 2014, Duffy hit a quality .279/.333/.448 with 12 homeruns.

Matt Duffy returned to AAA for the start of the 2015 season, only this time to the new Astros’ AAA affiliate Fresno Grizzlies. Duffy’s 5th minor league season would be different than his first 4, oddly enough it would be a breakout season that somehow didn’t get him elected to a mid-season all-star team as he did in his first 4 seasons. Duffy’s season at Fresno was part of juggernaut team that will have to play for the PCL championship without him. He hit .294 with 20 homeruns and 104 RBI while scoring 94 runs on the way to winning the PCL MVP award and leading the Grizzlies to a franchise best 84-59 record and first playoff appearance since 1998.

Over the past few seasons the Astros’ marketing team has dubbed the day a highly touted prospect gets called up as the name of that prospect –day (SpringerDay, CorreaDay). In Duffy’s case the city of Fresno beat the Astros to the punch in proclaiming September 9th Matt Duffy day in recognition of his outstanding season and MVP award. Happy DuffyDayPartDuex Astros fans.

- Jeremy Schmidt -

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Before They Were Astros: LHP Dallas Keuchel

Before They Were Astros: LHP Dallas Keuchel

[The first in a series by WTHB Contributor Jeremy Schmidt ( @Jeremy_IP_TTM )]

Dallas Keuchel is an All-Star for the first time; it would not be a surprise if he started the game. This would have been a statement that would get weird looks sent in the direction of anyone who said it a mere 15 months ago. Coming into the 2014 season Dallas Keuchel won the 5th spot in the starting rotation after a rather pedestrian 2013 season spent as starter and reliever. He established himself as a very good major league starter during a three game stretch in May of 2014 when he pitched 26.2 innings against AL West opponents where he allowed only two earned runs while striking out 21.

Before the Beard - March 2013

Photo by Jayne Hansen

The momentum built during that stretch was sustained by Keuchel en route to a 200-inning season, Houston’s first since Brett Myers in 2011. Keuchel entered 2015 as the Astros’ clear number one starter. He, thus far, has lived up to and exceeded all expectations coming into the season. The Astros’ 7th round pick in 2009 has succeeded without the hype and overpowering stuff of guys like Matt Harvey or Jose Hernandez, but by overcoming failure in what has become a trend for Keuchel.

As you would imagine future major league players usually dominate in high school; Dallas Keuchel was no exception. Keuchel as a sophomore pitched a two-hit shutout to win the class 5A championship in 2004. The following season he again pitched in the championship game. This time his Bishop Kelley Comets fell 0-1 on a final inning run. In his senior season Keuchel led his team back to the Oklahoma state championship game for the 3rd straight season, this time going the distance and striking out eight in a 3-1 victory. Also his school’s starting quarterback, Keuchel was not drafted out of high school.

Keuchel, after his stellar high school career, matriculated at the University of Arkansas where he pitched on scholarship. According to www.hognation.net Keuchel featured a mid 80’s fastball, curveball, and a screwball. As a freshman Keuchel pitched in 24 games, starting 9. He struggled for most of the season as Arkansas could not find a compliment to pair with staff ace Nick Schmidt. Most notably Keuchel took the loss, giving up 4 runs in a 1-inning start against Vanderbilt in the SEC Championship game. The Razorback season ended in disappointing fashion as they failed to make it out of the regionals.

In 2008 Dallas Keuchel entered his sophomore season at Arkansas following a good previous summer in the Cape Cod League. Keuchel struggled early in the season until April 11th when manager Dave Van Horn, in an attempt to shake up a struggling team, inserted Dallas as the Friday night starter. Keuchel pitched the Razorbacks to a 2-1 victory over the Top 25 Florida Gators, and continued to pitch well as the Friday night starter the remainder of the season. Although Keuchel pitched well down the stretch, the Razorbacks season ended in disappointment again as Keuchel took the loss to Stanford in the regionals to end the season.

Keuchel entered his junior season at Arkansas poised for a big year. After his sophomore year Keuchel returned to the wood bat Cape Cod League and pitched to an improved 2.63 ERA. Keuchel opened the season as the Friday night starter and pitched to a 9-3 record with a (pre BBCOR bat) 3.92 ERA. He teamed with Drew Smyly to lead the Razorbacks to the final 8 of the College World Series; Keuchel was the winning pitcher of both games won by Arkansas in the World Series. Following an exit to the hands of the eventual champion LSU Tigers, Keuchel went on to begin his professional career after being drafted 221st overall by Houston.

Keuchel began his professional career with the Tri-City Valley Cats of the New York-Penn League. He pitched very well and earned himself a promotion to the Lancaster Jethawks to begin the next season. Keuchel again pitched well earning a midseason promotion this time to AA Corpus Christi where he struggled to finish the season, his first full season in pro ball. Keuchel returned to Corpus Christi to begin the 2011 season. He went 9-7 with a 3.17 ERA over 20 starts earning an All-Star selection to the Texas League South team. Once again Keuchel earned a midseason promotion. In AAA Keuchel struggled to finish the season as he did at the end of the 2010 season. He ended 2011 with a 7.50 ERA at Oklahoma City.

After starting the 2012 season at AAA Oklahoma City, Dallas Keuchel made his Major League debut on June 17, 2012. He would continue to have ups and downs as he did on his journey to the Majors. Keuchel spent time on the shuttle between AAA and majors until May of 2013 when he became a full time Major Leaguer. The legend of Kid Kuechy will continue next week in Cincinnati.

Texas League All-Star Game Report

Devenski Shines in All-Star Game Start

By Jeremy Schmidt (@Jeremy_IP_TTM)

WHATABURGER FIELD, CORPUS CHRISTI - The 79th Texas League All-Star Game was held Tuesday at Whataburger Field, the home of the Houston Astros’ AA affiliate the Corpus Christi Hooks. The festivities kicked off with a homerun derby; an unusual scoring system was used granting 10 points for a homerun, 5 points for hitting various targets set up in the outfield, and a 2 point deduction for a foul ball. All possible point totals doubled on the final out. The Hooks were represented by 3B/DH Tyler White. Prior to the derby Hooks pitcher Chris Devenski picked White to win stating “Tyler has enough power to put it out there on the berm.” These words held true as White led all competitors with 76 points on 7 homeruns in the first round. White went on to face Springfield catcher Michael Ohlman (66 points on 7 homeruns) in the championship final. White did not disappoint the home crowd as he defeated Ohlman 18 points to 6 by hitting 2 homeruns to Ohlman’s 1.

Tyler White - May 2015

Photo by Jayne Hansen

In the All-Star game the South division team fell to the North 9-4 under a beautiful coastal sky. Starting for the South team was Hooks pitcher Chris Devenski, who the Astros acquired from the Chicago White Sox in the Brett Myers trade in 2012. Devenski earned the start by pitching to 7-1 record while allowing a very low ERA of 1.16 over 14 games and 70 innings pitched. He also combined with Hooks teammate Josh Hader on a rain shortened no-hitter. Devenski in his first all-star game planned to “give the home town crowd a good little show, have fun, and not hold anything back.” That is exactly what he did in his two perfect innings, striking out the final two batters he faced.

1B Conrad Gregor, the Astros 4th round pick in 2013, was the only Hooks position player to start. He played all nine innings going 0 for 3 with a walk and stolen base.

With runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out in the 5th inning Hooks manager Rodney Linares, who will also be participating in next week’s Futures Game, turned to Hooks reliever and Texas State alum Travis Ballew. Facing the game’s first high leverage situation Ballew allowed a single to the first batter he faced to score both inherited runners. Ballew was able to finish the inning without further runs scoring by sandwiching another single between a groundout and caught stealing.

Homerun Derby champ Tyler White and terrific defensive catcher Roberto Pena both entered as defensive replacements in the top of the 6th inning. Neither player contributed offensively going a combined 0 for 3.

The game got somewhat ugly in the top of the 9th when Hooks closer Jandel Gustave, whose control was off, only recorded one out while walking three and hitting a batter. Three runs, all earned, were charged to him. Linares turned to Aaron West, the last Hooks player available, to relieve Gustave of the bases loaded situation. West was a late addition to the South team; he did not learn of his selection until the morning of the game when pitching coach Doug Brocail informed his of his addition. West escaped the jam allowing only the final run of the game, an inherited run to score on a sacrifice fly.

Game Notes

Current Astros pitchers Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez as well as Fresno utility man Tony Kemp were also selected as Texas League All-Stars.

Former Astro pitcher David Martinez pitched a scoreless 7th inning for the South team, he was representing Texas Rangers’ affiliate Frisco.

Travis Jankowski, college teammate of former Astro pitcher Nick Tropeano, hit a leadoff homerun for the South team. It was only his 4th professional homerun.

Royals prospect Jorge Bonifacio was named the MiLB.com Top Star of the Game after hitting a tie breaking 2-run homerun in the 8th inning.


Chris Devenski - 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K

Travis Ballew - 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K

Jandel Gustave - 1/3 IP, 0 H, 3 BB, HBP, K, 3 R

Aaron West - 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K, 0 R

Conrad Gregor - 0-3 BB, SB, K

Tyler White - 0-2

Roberto Pena - 0-1