Angst in Astros Land

And there was great wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending of garments far and wide across Astros land today. And for the life of me, I cannot figure out why.

The Astros did not sign Masahiro Tanaka. The Astros were never going to be able to sign Masahiro Tanaka, not with the free agent market running as wildly as it has this winter. Didn't this signing have New York Yankees written all over it even before the deal was announced?

So, $155 million for 7 years and that doesn't even include the $20 million posting fee. For a pitcher who hasn't thrown an MLB pitch yet. Yes, he has astonishing numbers in Japan. He may very well turn out to be the love child of Walter Johnson and Cy Young, or his arm may have been cloned in a Petri dish from Roger Clemens' DNA. Or his arm may fall off next year. Either way, it is a $175,000,000.00 gamble.

And it is a gamble. Even though Tanaka is young and presumably healthy, that is still a lot of coin. But some Astros fans are livid that Jim Crane didn't put $175,000,000.00 on red and wait for the ball to finish bouncing.

Crane is reported to have offered in excess of $100,000,000.00. Let's say for grins that he offered around $115 to $120 million which I find highly likely from some of the reports I've read. Add into that around $13,000,000+ that Tanaka would have saved in state income tax by playing in Texas and you're looking at around $128 to $133 million. That was a competitive bid. And Crane took The Rocket himself along for the ride to try to sweet talk Tanaka. But when all was said and done, Tanaka wanted to be a Yankee. Like it or not, the Yankees are a storied franchise and many will be seduced by that siren song. Even with a lucrative television deal, Crane would have been hard-pressed to get past that obstacle.

But I'm hearing Astros fans out there accuse Crane of just putting on a show, bidding just enough to get the good publicity with no intention of getting a deal done, perpetuating the "Jim Crane won't spend any money" meme. The problem is, I don't believe that ... at all.

When Crane first purchased the team, he made a number of missteps. He seemed to think that owning a baseball team was just like owning any other business. I don't think that he understood initially that a baseball team is really owned by the city and the fans who support that team. A good team owner is someone who understands that he is first and foremost the custodian of a sacred trust. Sacred. I mean that. A 50+ year old franchise becomes a part of the heart and soul of the community and the fans whose lives and personal histories become intertwined with the team's history. We remember when children were born based on what the Astros did that year. But I digress.

One year ago, I had my doubts about the direction of the team on the business side. A lot of them. But Crane seemed to realize that things weren't going well and he took steps to address the problem. Starting with the hiring of Reid Ryan, the problems started to go away. The fans felt like someone was listening, really listening, to them again. The tone changed completely. There were still issues on the field and off the field, but they started getting addressed. Just recently with the news that the left field eyesore signage is being moved and that the front office is working diligently with MLB to get games back on the air, one can see that things really are changing for the better. And with Jeff Luhnow's direction, the play on the field will be getting better as well and I believe that Jim Crane will pay to make that a reality. I think he has earned that benefit of a doubt with what he has done over this last year.

Call me Pollyanna if you wish, say I'm wearing rose-colored glasses, but I do believe that Crane's bid for Tanaka was a serious bid. If Tanaka wanted, in his heart of hearts, to be a Yankee, there was not much that could be done about that. But there is one thing I don't want to see. I DO NOT WANT CRANE TO SPEND MONEY JUST TO SPEND MONEY. That is how the Astros ended up spending far too much money on rapidly dwindling returns for Carlos Lee's contract. Teams such as the Yankees, Angels, Mariners and others may pay in the long run for their "must win today at any cost" strategy in paying free agents.

I do believe that Crane will spend money, but I don't think that he will ever do so recklessly, thoughtlessly or carelessly, and I'm OK with that.

Besides, five of the Astros Top 10 prospects from the just released Baseball America list are right-handed pitchers. Just think, one of those pitchers could be as good or better than Masahiro Tanaka over an entire career. One of those guys could be turning down $155,000,000 from the Yankees one of these days because, in his heart of hearts, he wants to be an Astro.

My soapbox is now being stored away for the time being. Thanks for hearing me out even if you disagree with me, especially if you disagree with me.

Reid Ryan as Astros President

With the semi-official news this morning that Reid Ryan will be replacing George Postolos as the Astros President, I am finally seeing something I haven't seen in a very long while. I'm seeing a glimmer of hope. Hope that Ryan, as a baseball man with good business acumen, will understand the frustrations of Astros fans who understand re-building the team on the field, but don't understand the wholesale destruction of the Astros image off the field. Hope that the constant PR disasters will either come to an abrupt end or at least slow to a trickle. Hope that I can once again take pride in my Astros off the field as well as on the field.

Ryan is a class act all the way. He runs fantastic operations in Round Rock and in Corpus Christi. And he understands baseball. And baseball fans. He will be friendly, approachable and sensitive to the fans' needs while also being a good steward of the business operations for Jim Crane.

I am hard-pressed to think of a better choice. Jim Crane deserves a great deal of credit for this choice. It is a chance to re-set the narrative for the Astros, a narrative which has been on a downward spiral for quite some time.

As far as I'm concerned, Jim Crane now gets a clean slate. This is his mulligan. Let's do this right this time.

Some Thoughts on the CSN Houston Deal

Let me preface this by giving my belated stamp of approval to the Astros front office for hiring Alan Ashby to replace Jim Deshaies on the Astros TV broadcasts. No one can truly replace JD, but having someone with vast experience in broadcasting who also has a history with the team will at least alleviate some of the heartache. The news that Geoff Blum will be in the mix too as Bill Brown scales back his schedule is, in my opinion, gravy. Blummer's sense of humor will be a welcome addition.

With that said, I'm afraid I'm going to have to take the Astros' business office to the proverbial woodshed ... again. It really seems that for every positive move the business side has made, they have taken two giant leaps backward in other ways.

Today, Brian Smith of the Houston Chronicle tweeted out a link to this piece from David Barron, also of the Chronicle. I'm well aware that the new Astros/Rockets regional sports network, CSN Houston, is not available to 60% of Houston viewing households since I am a DirecTV subscriber. What galls me about the article is the characterization by CSN President Matt Hutchings and Astros President George Postolos that DirecTV (and by implication, Dish Network and U-Verse) is being unreasonable and that CSN Houston only wants what is fair.

Let's look at a few facts. First of all, this Reuters article gives us an idea of what some of the monthly subscriber fees are which are currently being charged by various regional sports networks. Keep in mind that CSN Houston is asking for $3.40 per month per subscriber and is requiring that the network be placed on the basic level tier. It was reported that the previous fee charged by FSN Houston was estimated at $2.50 per subscriber per month.

• YES Network (Yankees and Nets) - $2.99 per month
• Time Warner Sportsnet (Lakers and Galaxy) - $3.95 per month for some subscribers/reportedly $3.40 for DirecTV
• Fox Sports North (Vikings, Twins, Timberwolves, Wild, Gophers and Lynx) - $3.68 per month (the most expensive of all the Fox regional sports networks) 

Granted, the YES Network rates have been in place for quite some time and are slated to go up soon, but this is where they currently stand. I saw reports that most subscription fees fell in the range of $2.00 to $3.00, but was unable to find anything definitive.

Next, let's look at ratings information.

• The Yes Network, currently $2.99 per month for subscribers, has been the most watched RSN for 10 straight years.
• Time Warner Sportsnet, currently reported to be $3.40 per month for DirecTV subscribers, features the top TV draw in the NBA as the Laker's ratings from last year show.
• Fox Sports North has the highest subscription rate of all, but includes football, hockey, the WNBA and college sports in addition to baseball and basketball. I wasn't able to find specific ratings information, but the above link shows that the Timberwolves had one of the fastest growing viewerships last season.

The Astros and the Rockets, however, have had a precipitous drop in viewership since 2007 with this article from Sport Business Daily showing a 35% drop in Astros viewership during the 2012 season alone. And lest we forget, Barron reported that a low of 1092 average households viewed the September 9, 2012 Astros game on FSN Houston.

It is unfortunate for Jim Crane that he purchased the Astros at a time when the team (and its viewership) has reached such a low point. In a better year, he would have much more leverage in these negotiations. In any event, I really cannot see how DirecTV is being unreasonable unless they are making other demands of which I am unaware. DirecTV most likely fails to see the value in charging ALL of its subscribers almost a dollar a month more than it did for FSN Houston so that 1092 average households can watch a Sunday game in September. I simply do not see how $3.40 per month, which would be one of the highest fees charged for an RSN, constitutes fair market value, and apparently DirecTV agrees with me.

Crane is responsible to his ownership group to get the best offer he can get with the holdouts. I understand that and I can respect that. But he cannot allow the situation to continue into the season. It is difficult enough to be an Astros fan right now. The Astros front office is threatening to make it more difficult. In addition to the threat of no televised games to 60% of Houston households, there is still no radio team in place with only 34 days to go until the first Spring Training game.

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around, will it make a sound? If a game is broadcast to no one, will there be anyone left to hear it when it is finally broadcast to someone?

New Owner Checklist

2011 Attendance - 2,067,016

_____ Start major rebuild

_____ Announce move to American League

_____ Suggest a name change

_____ Erect hideously ugly sign that everyone hates

2012 Attendance - 1,607,733 (22% decline)
2012 FSN Houston Viewers, according to Neilsen - 1046 households on 9/9/12

_____ Fire radio team and allude to their fantastic replacements
           (Two months later *crickets*)

_____ Start up a fancy new regional sports network that 60% of Houston doesn't get

_____ Don't re-sign Jim Deshaies to a long-term contract, again alluding to great replacement

_____ Continue rebuilding

_____ Move to the American League

_____ 9:00 West Coast games

_____ Pretend you care how this all affects the fans

2013 Estimated Attendance - 1,559,680 or lower (the lowest in 2012 was 1,559,681 - I think we can beat that easily)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Seriously, I love what Luhnow is doing on the baseball side, but Crane needs to start getting some good PR and he needs to start getting it soon. Other than the uniforms, it's been the drip, drip, drip of Chinese water torture on Astros fans. Get a couple of former players in the radio and TV broadcast booth that people can get excited about and do it soon for the love of Milo and all that's holy!

I want to get excited about the Astros again, but frankly I'm just numb at this point. For the first time ever, I can honestly say that I don't care if I miss a bunch of games next year because they won't be available on my provider. I'll have more time to watch the minor leagues on my computer. And if I'm saying that, if I'm feeling that way, you have a serious PR problem.

Stupid Is As Stupid Does

And, if true, this is yet another stupid move on the part of the Astros so-called business side. I thought that being a business person meant building up your business, not tearing your business down and giving your fans "the business."

Jim Deshaies was the only thing keeping most fans watching through the last two abysmal seasons. If the Astros do not re-sign him, it will be a monument to stupidity. It will be the Mount Rushmore of stupidity. Jim Deshaies and Bill Brown are simply a fantastic broadcast team and should be kept at any cost.

Less than two months ago at a season ticket holder function, George Postolos said that the Astros wanted to be a first-class franchise. Why then, would you let a first-class broadcast team walk out the door? I can understand if Bill Brown decides to retire, but Jim Deshaies is obviously not ready to retire or he wouldn't be interviewing elsewhere. So the Astros just need to make the man an offer, a fair offer. And they need to do it now!

Please make your voices heard by filling out this Astros feedback form or you can contact them as follows: 

Mailing Address:
501 Crawford St.
Houston, TX 77002

Phone Number:
(713) 259-8000

Season Tickets:

1-800-ASTROS2 (Season Tickets)

Also, you can contact CSN Houston here:

To contact Comcast SportsNet Houston:

713.457.6700
Comcast SportsNet Houston
1201 San Jacinto Street, Suite 200
Houston, TX. 77002

Some Thoughts on Jim Crane & Roger Clemens

Back in January I got up on my soapbox to give Jim Crane a little warning friendly advice about trifling with the Houston fanbase. I'm sure he never read it, but it made me feel better. Since then, I have mostly left him to his devices, both good and bad. As much as I hate that thing in left center, I understand why it's there as I look around at all the empty seats. Until the Astros are competitive again, Crane needs to make money somehow.

But I left him alone because it appeared that he was committed to re-building the team the right way, from the bottom up. He has spent wisely, focusing the Astros dollars on the farm system rather than quick-fix free agents. He has hired, in Jeff Luhnow, a General Manager who has publicly stated that he has no interest in making moves that would risk mortgaging the future.

Yes, the current Astros team is doing badly by any definition of the word. Some of the current players will be a part of the future and are slowly adjusting to the major league level. Some players are, to put it bluntly, placeholders until younger players are ready to stake their claim. Re-building is not for the faint of heart. But it appeared that Jim Crane and company were committed to the philosophy at hand.

Then the Roger Clemens circus came to town. I have no ax to grind with Roger Clemens. Leaving the unproven steroid allegations completely out of it, there have been other issues over the years that have kept me from really liking Clemens as a person. Whether it's fair or unfair, I'll admit it. BUT I can put that aside, and I will be the first to acknowledge that he is one of the greatest pitchers to have ever played the game. Hands down. And I will never forget the sight of him warming up in the bullpen to pitch the 16th, 17th and 18th innings for the win in the 2005 NLDS. It still gives me chills.

With that said, it appears I am in the minority when I say that Jim Crane should not sign Roger Clemens to pitch for the Houston Astros. It is a bad idea on several different levels. As a matter of fact, I think even Jim Crane knows it's a bad idea. In this article, Crane goes out of his way several times in saying that Clemens wouldn't be a part of the long-term plans. Then why do it? If it admittedly doesn't advance the long-term plans of the organization, what is the reason for doing it?

He would be doing it for money, pure and simple. Crane may protest that he will give most of the money to charity, but so many people would come to see Roger Clemens pitch that there would be a lot of extra cash coming in the door via concessions and the $250 specialty jerseys that I feel certain would be made available.

So what's wrong with that, you may ask? What are you, a communist or something? No, but I am a purist. Bringing in someone who in no way advances your long-term goals (or even short-term goals for that matter) just to bring people in cheapens the game of baseball, the Astros franchise and the efforts of those players who are working their tails off to be a part of the team moving forward. There is no shame in losing. There is, however, shame in bringing in an Eddie Gaedell or a Herb Washington or a Roger Clemens just to put butts in seats.

Another reason I am against the idea is that Clemens would, by necessity, take up a 40-man roster spot. I was presented with a whole list of individuals who some think could easily be removed from the 40-man roster to make room for him. That may or may not be true but it misses the point entirely. Here is just a short list of pitchers who should at least be considered for a September call-up and a 40-man roster spot over Roger Clemens:

Brett Oberholtzer
Jason Stoffel
Kevin Chapman
Jarred Cosart
Jose Cisnero
Ross Seaton

Every one of those pitchers has the potential for being a part of the Astros' future. Roger Clemens does not. He should not be taking developmental innings away from any pitcher in this organization.

Roger Clemens can make a difference for the Astros and he can contribute to the Astros' long-term development, but not as a player. He can be coach, consultant, mentor or cheerleader under the personal services contract that is already in place and I would love to see that happen.

I'm sure that there are other teams that are in need of his services as a pitcher now. We are not one of them. Let another team deal with the circus atmosphere that would accompany a Roger Clemens comeback. Please. Let the Astros retain at least a shred of dignity.

I know there are many who won't agree with me, but I just wanted to let you know my reasons.

It's Not That We Don't Trust You ...

Dear Mr. Crane ~

Here's the deal.  During the lead up to your purchase of the Astros, your name was dragged through the mud.  Fairly or unfairly, many Astros fans really didn't trust you from the start because of this.  I have tried to keep an open mind because, having been in the business world for many years now, I know that things are rarely black and white.

Then came the whole American League thing.  Personally, I believe that you had no choice in the matter.  I firmly believe that whether you bought the Astros, another entity bought the Astros or McLane retained ownership of the Astros, the Astros were going to the American League.  Bud Selig decided it and it was so.  But there are a lot of fans who don't believe that was the case.  They think you sold them out.

Now, after long-time fans have had to swallow the AL move and have just started coming to terms with that, you throw out as kind of an after-thought that you're looking at possibly changing the Astros name.  I have no defense for you on this one.  The whole idea is simply indefensible.  We have had our 50+ year National League history ripped from us and now you're thinking of voluntarily changing the name?  The only possible reason to change the name is for money, pure and simple.  Merchandising revenues are down so why not stir things up a little?  Really bad idea.

Let me give you a little free advice.  John McMullen is still universally detested for asking Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan to take a pay cut and chasing him out of town.  Bud Adams is still hated for, among other things, demanding that the Astrodome scoreboard be removed to make room for more seats.  If you push through a name change, Houstonians will never forgive you.

If, as has been suggested, the idea of a name change was simply a trial balloon and a way of getting a free focus group, shame on you.  You have not earned our trust yet.   If you continue to do things like this, you never will.

An Astros Meet & Greet with the Powers that Be

This morning I had the opportunity to speak with Jim Crane, George Postolos and Jeff Luhnow at a season ticket holders Meet & Greet at Minute Maid Park.  I was very encouraged by the direction and tone of the meeting and wanted to share some of the high points.

Following some brief introductory remarks by Crane and Postolos, Jeff Luhnow took the microphone.   His main points were that he intends to devote considerable resources to the front office for analytics, devote considerable resources to the June draft, emphasize effective player development and expand the Astros relationship with the Mexican Pacific League in particular.  As he has stated before, he is intent on building a strong farm system so that the Astros will be able to compete year in and year out.  This was emphasized by Postolos as well.

It was also announced that there will be some type of season ticket holder event in conjunction with the June draft.  I am unclear on the details of this, but I am incredibly excited by the prospect.

There were several good questions/comments during the Q&A.  I made a comment about how some feel that the season ticket experience has been devalued with the proliferation of cheap deals to the non-season ticket holder, and how upset people were when "Sweet Caroline" was played during a Red Sox game at Minute Maid Park (which led Astros fans to feel that they weren't as valued as the Red Sox fans).  Jim Crane took the question and came extremely close to guaranteeing that season ticket holders would be getting a partial credit on their tickets, and did guarantee that a decision would be made by February 15th.  And, although the "Sweet Caroline" incident wasn't specifically addressed by Crane, I think from the comments that were made, you could safely bet that incident will never be repeated.

Other questions involved the no outside food/drink policy (Postolos indicated that they will probably loosen that policy), the minor league affiliates (no changes anticipated at this time), and other such.

In response to one question, Jim Crane did explain more about how the American League move came down.  He was told in no uncertain terms that, if he wanted to own the team, he had to agree to the move.  No buyer was going to be approved without that condition being met; it was part and parcel of the new CBA and he was outnumbered.

Finally, I did talk to Jeff Luhnow briefly and I asked him about better avenues of communication with regard to minor league players, particularly as it pertains to the status of injured players (such as Vincent Velasquez) and the almost total lack of information on the DSL players.  He told me that he would think about how to facilitate better communication in those areas.

Overall, I came away from that meeting feeling that the Astros franchise is in good hands and that, although the process will not be a quick one, we are headed in the right direction.

Soapbox - Demonizing Jim Crane

It seems that demonizing Jim Crane is all the fashion on twitter, the blogs and the fan sites these days.  "Run him out of town on a rail."  "Tar and feather him."  What many people seemed to have missed is this.  THE ASTROS WERE GOING TO THE AMERICAN LEAGUE WHETHER JIM CRANE BOUGHT THE TEAM OR NOT.  The die was cast a long time ago.

Drayton McLane has always done everything that Bud Selig told him to do.  He closed the roof during the World Series in 2005.  He allowed a home game against Chicago to be played in Milwaukee in 2007.  Heck, it's only been the last couple of years that McLane has paid over slot in the draft.  With that in mind, do you really think that, had the deal with Jim Crane fallen through, McLane wouldn't have agreed to appease Bud and make the move?  Do you really think an owner that would allow "Sweet Caroline" to be played during a game against the Red Sox IN MINUTE MAID PARK really gives a big whoop what the fans think?

Well, you say, Jim Crane didn't have to agree to the move.  Of course he did.  If he wanted to buy the team, he had no choice.  Bud Selig has the power and he wasn't ever going to let the ownership deal come to a vote unless Jim Crane agreed.  You can call it extortion.  You can call it morally bankrupt.  You can call it unfair.  But Bud Selig never had any intention of approving Jim Crane OR ANYONE ELSE unless they agreed to the AL move.

That doesn't mean that you don't have a right, as an Astros fan, to be angry or frustrated or upset or depressed (although if you never sent a letter or e-mail or made a phone call protesting the move, maybe you don't have that right after all).  I've already been through the 5 stages of grief.

But there were only going to be two possible outcomes to this situation.  Either Jim Crane was going to be approved and the Astros would go to the American League.  Or Drayton McLane was going to retain ownership and the Astros would still go to the American League.  So, the real choice is do you want an owner who knows and loves baseball or an owner who has become totally disengaged and doesn't care anymore?  Those were your only two choices, thanks to Bud Selig - that's who you should be demonizing.

Jim Crane hasn't even been approved yet.  Other than getting George Postolos involved, we really have no idea what his plans are.  How about we give him a little time and see what happens.  He may turn out to be a terrible owner.  He may turn out to be the best owner the Astros have ever seen.  I suspect that he will fall somewhere in between, but let's at least give him a chance.  The good news is that the Astros can finally emerge from the purgatory they've been in since May and we should be able to see some real direction.  At least I hope so.

Finally, for those of you who intend to abandon the Astros over the move to the American League, I have a little unsolicited advice.  You're only punishing yourself.  Baseball will go on with you or without you and despite Bud Selig.  If you liked Jose Altuve, Bud Norris, J.D. Martinez and Jordan Lyles yesterday, you'll still like them tomorrow.  If you love Houston today, warts and all, as I do, you will still love Houston tomorrow.  Give it a chance.  But, Mr. Crane, no more "Sweet Caroline" please.

Off Soapbox ----------->  Exit Stage Right

Anatomy of a Cluster-You-Know-What

May 19th Smooth Sailing Eyed

June 1st
Deal expected to be approved by early July

June 12th
Expecting sale to be approved before trade deadline

June 29th
Expecting sale to be final in 2-3 weeks

July 8th
Approval could be delayed to mid-August meetings

July 9th
McLane hoping for approval by end of July

July 12th
Selig says approval is on track

July 14th
Approval not likely until late July or early August

August 2nd
Approval expected on August 18th

August 3rd
Approval likely at the annual owners meetings 8/18 & 8/19

August 9th
McLane expects transfer of team on August 22nd

August 15th
August 15th
McLane says Selig indicated approval should come in 2 weeks

August 29th
McClane says approval will be in a week to 10 days

August 30th
McClane expects approval by the middle of the next week

September 8th
McClane says the matter will reach a resolution in a few days

September 24th
McClane expects approval to be complete in 3-4 weeks

October 10th
McClane hoping to see some action in the next week

October 12th
Approval expected in mid-November

November 3rd
Approval is two weeks away