Top 100 Prospect List

When Jonathan Mayo published his Top 100 Pre-Season Prospect List in 2013, there were four Astros players among them:

27. Jon Singleton
30. Carlos Correa
57. George Springer
89. Jarred Cosart

This year's list includes seven Astros, with three repeating and Cosart graduating to the big leagues.

8. Carlos Correa
17. Mark Appel
21. George Springer
50. Jon Singleton
52. Lance McCullers
54. Mike Foltynewicz
66. Delino DeShields


Only one team, the Red Sox with nine, has more players in the Top 100 than Houston. The Cubs tie Houston with seven in the Top 100. They are followed by the Pirates with six and the Twins with five. And here is how the AL West stacks up:

Astros - 7
Rangers - 5
Mariners - 2
A's - 1
Angels - 0

The Angels are the only team with zero in the Top 100, followed by the Brewers and A's with one each.

More on the July 2012 Astros/Blue Jays Trade

Yesterday I posted a piece showing the net gains for the two teams in the July 2012 Astros/Blue Jays trade. Today, I continue my look at the trade with a little input from Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. The second piece is posted at The Futurists blog if you are so inclined as to mosey on over there for a peek.

2013 MLB Top 100 Prospects - Don't Worry, Be Happy

I first started writing about the Astros minor league system out of frustration and, dare I say, desperation back in August of 2011. The big league club was falling apart on its way to the first 100+ loss season in Astros history. I kept hearing how absolutely bereft the farm system was. I decided to look for myself and share my findings. Frankly, I'm very glad that I didn't look sooner. The farm system at the time was not without talent, but the lack of depth was startling, to say the least.

When Jonathan Mayo published what was then a Top 50 prospect list before the 2011 season, there was only one Astro on the list - Jordan Lyles at #31. Prior to the 2012 season, there were three Astros on what evolved to become the MLB Top 100 Prospect list: Jonathan Singleton (44), Jarred Cosart (61) and George Springer (84). On Tuesday the 2013 pre-season Top 100 list came out. Singleton went from #44 in 2012 to #27 in 2013. Carlos Correa debuted on the list at #30. Springer went from #84 to #57. Only Cosart actually dropped somewhat on the list from #61 in 2012 to #89 in 2013.

That makes four elite prospects on the list. Only nine teams had more top prospects on the list than the Astros did. The former head of scouting and development for one of those nine teams is currently the Astros General Manager. Things are looking up. We're not just looking at the beginnings of depth in the organization, we're looking at quality depth.

But I have seen some angst in the twitterverse over what was seen as a snub against Delino DeShields. The Astros Minor League Player of the Year had a terrific season and ended the year on Mayo's post-season 2012 Top 100 at #77 yet didn't make the 2013 pre-season Top 100. Let me explain why that is not necessarily a snub.

First of all, Mayo's list is not static. It evolves throughout the season as prospects make it to the big leagues, are no longer considered prospects and come off the list. DeShields did not start 2012 on the list at all. Mayo added him at some point during the season and DeShields moved up as others came off the list. After the season, Mayo did get some input from scouts, scouting directors, etc. to establish the post-season list, but the input he gets at the end of the season is not nearly as extensive as that he gets when he prepares the pre-season list. Comparing the post-season list to the next year's pre-season list is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison.

Secondly, the Top 100 list that came out Tuesday is absolutely loaded with close to MLB-ready talent. A total of 71 of the 100 players are projected to reach the majors in 2013 or 2014. DeShields is not projected to get to the bigs until 2015; presumably, that was a factor for some of those polled as they want to see DeShields succeed at the higher levels. If he can do that, he will undoubtedly start moving up the ranks as others fall off.

DeShields wasn't the only Astros player "snubbed," by the way. The Astros Minor League Pitcher of the Year Mike Foltynewicz wasn't on the list. Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz were missing as well. Several players are awaiting their debut on the list. Two years ago, we couldn't say that we had many players poised to become elite prospects. But now we can. And that's a good thing.

The only "bad" news from the 2013 Top 100 list is that there are still doubts about whether or not Jarred Cosart will make it as a top of the rotation starter. He may only make it as an elite closer. Cosart will undoubtedly make his major league debut in 2013. If he spends enough time in the majors to graduate from this list, he won't be on the 2014 pre-season Top 100 list, but a very good case could be made that the Astros will have seven players or more on that 2014 list, and that doesn't even include anyone from the 2013 draft. Again, that's a good thing.

If you're still feeling a little disconsulate, I will leave you with this comment from Jonathan Mayo, "Why not focus on the fact that the Astros have four guys in the top 100, a much, much deeper farm system than they’ve had in years and a guy as GM who deserves a lot of credit for building the Cardinals’ system into what it is today."

Why not, indeed?

First (Round) Things First

I don't know if you've noticed this or not, but Jeff Luhnow loves to roll the dice on former first round draft picks from other teams, whether he picks them up via free agency, waiver claims or trades. Some former first rounders that he brought into the Astros organization (including one who didn't stick for long) include Travis Buck, Jack Cust (the non-stickee), Jed Lowrie, Scott Moore, Landon Powell, Brad Snyder, Bobby Borchering, Matt Dominguez, Tyler Greene, Asher Wojciechowski, Joe Musgrove, Kevin Comer and his latest pick-ups, Trevor Crowe and Phil Humber.

With that said, it occurred to me that if there were any former first round picks available in this week's Rule 5 draft, Mr. Luhnow and company are undoubtedly giving them an extra long look. It turns out there are two such players listed on Jonathan Mayo's Top 20 list of Rule 5 prospects:

RHP Kyle Heckathorn

Heckathorn was a first round supplemental pick (47th overall) by the Brewers in 2009 out of Kennesaw State University in Georgia. His numbers at AA for the Brewers in 2012 were marginal, but Mayo indicated that he improved slightly when he was moved to the bullpen after having command issues as a starter. His strikeout numbers leave something to be desired, but that is to be expected for someone who has a tendency to pitch to contact and to induce groundball outs with sink on his fastball. Heckathorn is 24 and is listed as 6'6" 225 lbs. (And he has a "Heck"uva great name!)

RHP Josh Fields

Granted Fields is a bit old at 27, but the former first round 2008 pick by the Mariners out of the University of Georgia (traded to the Red Sox in July 2011) had great numbers in his time with Boston's AA and AAA affiliates in 2012. In 42 games out of the bullpen, he had a combined 2.01 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP. As Mayo notes, he substantially reduced his walk rate from the prior year while putting up an impressive 12 strikeouts per nine innings.

According to Mayo, both of these players have had command issues in the past, but may be getting past those. Seeing as the easiest area for a Rule 5 player to "stick" is out of the bullpen and seeing as the Astros bullpen for 2013 will be a work in progress and seeing as Jeff Luhnow really, really likes those former first round picks, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he decides to take a flyer on one of these players.

Astros Farm System Gets More "Elite"

Ahem, it's not every day that I get a shoutout from Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, but I'm really just linking this to show the improvement in the Astros system in terms of elite prospects. Really. (Did I convince you?)

Lots-O-Links

This has been one crazy, busy off-season with tons of things being reported, talked about, analyzed, etc.  Links to recent goings-on below.

A great article from Jonathan Mayo on how Kim Ng is working to improve the international signings process

Jonathan Mayo's take on the Astros prospects participating in the Arizona Fall League

The latest blog posting from Josh Zeid on his experiences in the Arizona Fall League

Jason Castro talks about the progress he's making in coming back from his knee surgery

Brian Bogusevic's nomination for a GIBBY award

Kody Hinze talking about his Arizona Fall League experience

Dallas Keuchel talking about the pitches he's working on in the Arizona Fall League

Appy Astros looks at where the 2008 Greeneville Astros players are and how they're doing

Josh Magee gets a Milby award

I just assume that anyone who reads WTHB is also reading the Crawfishboxes site, but in case you missed it, I recorded a podcast with Tim, Sean and David to talk about top 30 prospects and more.  Here is Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.

Baseball Prospectus' top 11+ Astros prospect rankings

Top Prospect Alert's top 15 Astros prospect rankings

Enjoy!