Looking at the Evan Gattis Trade

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution published this article on Tuesday focusing on former Astros RHP Mike Foltynewicz and his road to recovery from a blood clot and related surgery last year. His first appearance of the spring season in a split squad game was rated a solid "Holy Cow!"

Mike Foltynewicz - March 2013

Photo by Jayne Hansen

That led me to wonder how all the players from that January 2015 trade with Atlanta are faring since they left the Astros fold.

RHP Mike Foltynewicz is, according to the above article, expected to be able to join the Braves as soon as mid-April. He split his 2015 season between AAA Gwinnett and Atlanta. With Gwinnett, he was 1-6 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.376 WHIP. He walked 26 and struck 63 in 56.2 innings. For the Braves, Folty was 4-6 with a 5.71 ERA and a 1.627 WHIP, walking 29 and striking out 77 in 86.2 innings. Through two Spring Training appearances, Foltynewicz has a 4.76 ERA and a 0.882 WHIP in his 5.2 innings of work. He is 24.

RHP Andrew Thurman has only appeared in one Spring Training game with the big league club at this point, but he was perfect in that one inning. The former 2013 second rounder's 2015 season was a tale of two seasons. He was putting up very nice numbers in his first six appearances in High A (2.51 ERA and 1.206 WHIP in 32.2 IP), but then this happened. Thurman missed almost two months to the disabled list after the bus accident. After coming back, he put up a 5.02 ERA and a 1.413 WHIP in his final 13 appearances of the season and his Arizona Fall League Campaign was mostly forgettable. Thurman was ranked #28 in the Braves system in Baseball America's 2016 Prospect Handbook. He is also 24.

3B Rio Ruiz struggled in his first taste of AA for the Braves (.229/.331/.318 in 126 games), but this article from the Atlanta paper reports a newly focused and more mature Ruiz showed up for Spring Training this year. In six games with the big league club, he has hit .400/.455/.500. Ruiz, who turns 22 in May, was ranked #17 in the Braves system by Baseball America going in to the 2016 season.

In return for Foltynewicz, Thurman and Ruiz, the Astros obtained DH Evan Gattis and minor league right-hander James Hoyt. Gattis hit .246/.285/.463 with 20 doubles, a mind-boggling 11 triples and 27 home runs in his first season for the Astros in 2015. He is currently working his way back from an injury (sports hernia) and is not expected to be ready by opening day. Gattis is 29.

Hoyt's 3.49 ERA and 1.204 WHIP for AAA Fresno in 2015 is somewhat misleading as he was significantly stronger in the second half of the season. He built on that with an excellent showing in Venezuelan winter ball which I spoke with him about in this December 2015 interview. In eight Spring Training appearances, Hoyt is 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA and a 0.840 WHIP. He has held hitters to a .071 batting average. He was ranked #27 in the Astros system by Baseball America going in to the 2016 season despite being much older than the average prospect at 29 years of age (see the linked interview for more on that as well).

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Nothing but 5-star reviews for the 2016 Houston Farm System Handbook!!! Get yours today.

A Four-for-One Trade for RHP Ken Giles

UPDATE: Reports now indicate that the fourth player being traded is RHP Thomas Eshelman, the 2015 second round draft pick who signed for $1.1 million. I had already written Eshelman's chapter for my upcoming 2016 Astros Farm System Handbook:

The second round pick didn’t get much playing time after signing, appearing in only four games in August before being shut down for the season. The Astros were likely playing it safe with Eshelman, a workhorse who had pitched 137 innings in his third season at Cal State Fullerton.

Thankfully, one need not rely on his 2015 pro output in order to determine what type of pitcher Eshelman is as there are numerous scouting reports on him. The one thing you will take away from every one of those reports is that Eshelman has command far beyond his age and experience. In his 137 college innings in 2015, he allowed seven walks to 139 strikeouts, a strikeout to walk rate just below 20:1. (How much of his fantastic control/command is attributable to his older brother Sam’s experiments with him as a child is debatable, but having been subjected to a dog shock collar by Sam, Eshelman likely learned quickly what not to do!)

Eshelman doesn’t throw heat, relying on a upper 80’s to low 90’s fastball with movement which sometimes touches 93, but rather on his impeccable ability to control his location, the ability to hide the ball well and a repeatable delivery and arm slot. In addition to the fastball, Eshelman features a solid changeup and a developing curveball which flashes plus.

Eshleman’s advanced control and command make him a good candidate to fast track through the system. He will likely start his 2016 season with the Low A full season Quad Cities team, but he will probably not linger at that level long and could very well earn a couple of promotions, landing him at AA Corpus Christi to end the season.

You can see what I wrote about the others below, but with the addition of Eshelman, that seems a very high price to pay for Giles. Naturally, one can't really judge a trade for years (at least not normally), but suffice it to say that Giles had better be channeling his inner Mariano Rivera for that haul. Luhnow traded from depth, though. There is a lot of pitching and outfield depth in the system. That depth may get a little bit shallower after the Rule 5 draft today, but nonetheless I understand where he was coming from. We'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out. In the meantime, I wish only the best for Vince, Brett, Derek and Thomas in their life after Astros.

Here is the updated off-season transaction list with these changes.

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The Astros are working on finalizing a trade with the Phillies that will bring 25-year old RHP Ken Giles, a hard-throwing closer (think 100-mph regularly but with better command ... and hopefully less baggage ... than Aroldis Chapman) to the team in exchange for four players, only three of whom have been identified at this point: RHP Vince Velasquez, LHP Brett Oberholtzer and OF Derek Fisher.

It's hard for me to weigh in at this point without knowing the fourth piece to the puzzle, but my initial reaction is that it will be a good move for Brett Oberholtzer who will benefit from a fresh start after becoming persona non grata for not hitting A-Rod with a pitch but coming close (which has always mystified me, but I digress). Oberholtzer grew up a Phillies fan and will now be closer to his family in Delaware. Pennsylvania-born Derek Fisher will also be closer to home, but more importantly, he will likely get a better chance in the Phillies organization than in his current situation with so many outfielders surrounding him on the depth charts.

Velasquez is another story. I see so much potential in him that his being traded is tough for me. But that's the problem. Luhnow is betting Velazquez's potential against the more demonstrable track record of Giles. Velasquez could, conceivably, be that special arm out of the 'pen for the Astros, but frankly, he should be given every opportunity to start first. In any event, if the Astros are going to lose him, which seems certain to be the case, I am very happy that he is going to the National League so the Astros won't have to face him often once he realizes his potential.

With the pieces that we know, I would lean toward saying that this is a fair trade, but I won't go quite that far without knowing the final piece of the puzzle.

Weighing in on the Carlos Gomez Trade

I'll be honest. I wasn't very happy when I saw this late this afternoon.

Astros announce trade with Brewers: OF Carlos Gomez and RHP Mike Fiers and int'l slot 76 in exchange for Phillips, Santana, Hader, Houser.

— Brian McTaggart ⚾️ (@brianmctaggart) July 30, 2015

I have nothing against Carlos Gomez. And I'd never even heard of Mike Fiers until a couple of hours ago. I want the Astros to be better and if this trade helps them get better, I'm all for it. But let me tell you a little about the players we're losing.

I love Adrian Houser. He's a competitor. I did my first interview with him when he was only 18. The first time I watched him pitch, he was just a kid about 30 pounds lighter than he is now, but showed great rhythm and athleticism on the mound. He was fun to watch. And then I saw him grow and develop and find his command. Each time I saw him, he had matured as a man and as a pitcher.

Domingo Santana was the opposite, physically at least. He was HUGE the first time I saw him at High A in 2012, the year after the trade, but he was what I called a little "doughy." By the time he got to Corpus Christi the next season, he had transformed himself. He was nothing but muscle and incredibly strong at the plate. And he had also started to transform himself defensively. I'll admit that I occasionally cringed when I saw him in right field. But he worked hard and started to learn what routes to take to balls and how to play smarter in the outfield. In late May in Fresno, there was a constant chatter going in Spanish between he and Carlos Correa on either side of the batting cage. I have no idea what they were talking about, but they were having a whole lot of fun together.

Josh Hader is just a good kid who likes sweet tea and country music ... until he gets on the mound. Then he's as hard-nosed and competitive a pitcher as you will ever see. He once told me that he wanted to "assassinate" the hitter. A little hyperbole, sure, but to see him go from laidback country guy to a ninja assassin with a deceptive delivery was quite entertaining.

I did like and do like all three of those players very much, but I will honestly tell you that I think they will all have a clearer path to the majors with another organization. If you haven't noticed, things are getting a little crowded at the top. There are a lot of moving parts as the Astros are having to get more and more and more creative with the 40-man roster. Houser would likely be lost in the Rule 5 draft this coming year if not protected, and Santana would not make it through waivers if he was removed from the 40-man roster. It makes sense to get something for those players now rather than losing them for nothing later.

However, I had three players in the minor league system that were, to me, untouchables. I won't reveal the other two because I don't want Jeff Luhnow to get any more ideas and further break my heart. But Brett Phillips was at the top of that list of three players.

Brett Phillips is a phenomenal talent. Quick twitch athleticism, speed, a canon arm, the ability to hit for average and for power. I see Phillips as becoming a legit 5-tool player in the major leagues and I think he will make his debut by the end of 2016 if not sooner. And I'm not the only one. MLB Pipeline had Phillips as the number 2 prospect in the Astros system. More than that, though, is Phillips' special ability to connect with everyone and to lead a team. He is going to become a very special player, one that can become the heart and soul of a team. And, yes, I am very sad to see him go. This one is going to hurt. It already does. As one person said, in a trade you have to give up good players, but you should make sure you keep the ones that can be great.

Revisiting the December 2011 Mark Melancon Trade

This is the first in a series looking back at the trades made by Jeff Luhnow since he became the General Manager of the Astros in December 2011.

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On December 14, 2011, brand new General Manager Jeff Luhnow traded RHP Mark Melancon to the Red Sox in exchange for SS Jed Lowrie and RHP Kyle Weiland.

Melancon spent one season for the Red Sox in 2012, putting up a 6.20 ERA, a 1.267 WHIP and a negative WAR of -0.5 in 45 appearances over 41 innings at the major league level. In the minors that season, Melancon had a 0.83 ERA and a 0.831 WHIP in 21 appearances over 21.2 innings.

Melancon was then traded by the Red Sox to the Pirates in December 2012. He flourished with the Pirates in 2013 (1.39 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in 72 appearances; 2.1 WAR; All-Star appearance) and in 2014 (1.90 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in 72 appearances; 2.0 WAR).

Jed Lowrie played in 97 games for the Astros in 2012, hitting .244/.331/.438 with 18 doubles, 16 home runs, 42 RBI, 43 walks and 65 strikeouts. He had a 2.2 WAR (2.4 oWar and 0.2 dWar). Lowrie was then traded to Oakland, along with RHP Fernando Rodriguez, for 1B Chris Carter, RHP Brad Peacock and C Max Stassi. (I'll look at this trade in-depth in due course.)

Kyle Weiland, on the other hand, only pitched in 3 games for Houston at the major league level before heading to the DL. In 17.2 innings, he had a 6.62 ERA, a 1.755 WHIP and a negative WAR of -0.2. Weiland did not make another official appearance until the summer of 2014, pitching in 14 minor league games between June and August. Weiland recently retired.

Although it would have been nice to have had the 2013 and 2014 version of Mark Melancon in the Houston bullpen to offset some of the struggles from those two years, and despite the disappointment of never having a completely healthy Weiland, there is really no way to see this trade as anything but a win for Luhnow after considering Lowrie's 2012 contributions and the return received after trading him.

Astros Trade with Altanta

The Astros announced on Wednesday (several hours after it first leaked out) that they had completed a trade that will send RHP Mike Foltynewicz, 3B Rio Ruiz and RHP Andrew Thurman to the Braves for C Evan Gattis and RHP James Hoyt.

Those who follow me on twitter probably already know that I'm not wild about this trade. Partly because I agree with Adam Everett ...

Adam Everett, who measures his words, once told me Rio Ruiz & Carlos Correa could one day be remembered like Bagwell & Biggio. High praise.
— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) January 14, 2015

... and partly because I'm not convinced that Colin Moran will stick at third base. And third base has been a problem for the Astros for a very long time. I loved Rio Ruiz's high energy and infectious enthusiasm. And I loved that sweet swing of his. I think he will be a star. And you don't let future stars go.

I was also very disturbed that Vince Velasquez's name was associated with this trade at one point. It's bad enough that the Astros are losing Foltynewicz who I think would ultimately become the team closer, they were considering letting a guy go who has the potential of being the staff ace.

Gattis has a great story and the fans in Atlanta love him. I got an email from an Atlanta fan who follows me that said, "Not since the steroid era has a hitter excited a fan base like he has where every BP session is like hearing a canon go off and each AB is a chance to witness sheer power at the plate. Atlanta fans love El Oso Blanco and I’m sure you all will too." But there are health concerns with him that already have him moving to left field or first base or DH because of those issues. Nothing is guaranteed, but I really don't want this trade to go down in history as another Bagwell for Andersen.

With that said, if you haven't already, it is time to acquaint yourself with the Evan Gattis story. I also found this article on Hoyt which makes me like him. Plus I heard this from former Astros farmhand Alex Todd had this to say about him.

@JayneWTHB read up on Jimmy Hoyt. Amazing story himself and should be a new favorite. Known him since college
— Alex Todd (@AlexToddriguez) January 15, 2015

I think the worst thing about this whole trade is that it will force me to follow the Braves. And I hate the Braves. But it is now time to say fare-thee-well. You will be missed.

Thanks to the @astros for making my dream come true and molding me as a player & person. Excited for this new chapter with the @Braves!
— Mike Foltynewicz (@Folty25) January 15, 2015

Thank you @astros for the opportunity of fulfilling my dream, I will be forever grateful.
— Rio Ruiz (@ruiz_rio) January 15, 2015

Fire Sale! Everything Must Go!

Before I talk about the Wandy Rodriguez trade, I just want to say that I have always been a fan of Wandy's. It always irked me that he never got the recognition that he deserved from the national sports media, from the previous front office and even from a lot of Astros fans. When Wandy was on, he was one of the best out there. I hate to see him go, but it is the best thing for the Astros team and, more importantly, it is the best thing for Wandy as he has had to deal with constant uncertainty for a couple of years now. I do hope that Wandy pitches for the Pirates on Saturday because I will be there and I will stand and I will cheer and I will thank him for his time as an Astro. Then I hope we beat him.

With that said, Wandy Rodriguez was dealt to the Pirates during last night's Astros game. My sister and I were at the game and she had her binoculars trained on the dugout as the rumors flew, watching Wandy. The second he left the dugout, we knew the trade was done. Then he came back to the dugout in a few minutes and started shaking hands and hugging players so there was no doubt.

What did the Astros receive in return? Three top 20 prospects from the Pirates organization! (Click on the player's name to see their current stats.)

OF Robbie Grossman - Grossman was ranked by Jonathan Mayo as #7 in the Pirates organization while Baseball America ranked him at #8 coming in to the season. The 22-year old switch hitter had a breakout season in 2011 with the Pirates Hi-A team, and excelled in the Arizona Fall League before suffering a broken hamate bone in his hand. According to Baseball America, he was the first minor leaguer to reach double digits in walks and runs since Nick Swisher did so in 2004. One thing he brings to the organization that is in short supply is his selectivity at the plate. He will report to Corpus Christi.

LHP Colton Cain - Cain was ranked by Mayo as #16, but BA ranked him higher at #13. Cain throws a low 90's fastball that touches the mid-90's and a curveball and changeup that are still works in progress but show much promise. He is described as fearless with a deceptive delivery and a frame built for durability. Baseball America projected him as a #3 or #4 starter coming in to the season. The 21-year old will also make a lateral move from the Pirates Hi-A team to the Astros Hi-A team in Lancaster.

LHP Rudy Owens - Baseball America ranked Owens as #16 in the Pirates organization going into the season while Jonathan Mayo has him at #12. Owens suffered from shoulder fatigue and reduced velocity in 2011 after being named as the Pirates minor league pitcher of the year in the two prior seasons. The 24-year old appears to be bouncing back this season. When he was at his most effective, he was throwing a 90-93 mph fastball with a "slurvy curveball" and a changeup that were still works in progress. He will report to AAA Oklahoma City.

With the infusion of new talent, there will be a lot of roster moves forthcoming as the existing rosters are full to bursting. I will try to keep a handle on the moves and post them as I have confirmed information.