My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
ATLANTA BRAVES
Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 964 | Signed 562 | Pitchers Signed 303 | Position Players Signed 259
Total WAR 356.2
Total Players to MLB 93
Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.
1998 | 7 to MLB | WAR 10.0 | High WAR 7.2, RHP Matt Belisle, 2nd rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 3.9 | High WAR 3.0, 1B Garrett Jones, 14th rd
2000 | 9 to MLB | WAR 71.7 | High WAR 38.2, RHP Adam Wainwright, 1st rd
2001 | 6 to MLB | WAR (1.9) | High WAR 0.1, RHP Kyle Davies, 4th rd
2002 | 5 to MLB | WAR 42.6 | High WAR 31.7, C Brian McCann, 2nd rd
2003 | 8 to MLB | WAR 14.8 | High WAR 8.9, LHP Matt Harrison, 3rd rd
2004 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.9) | High WAR (0.1), RHP James Parr, 4th rd
2005 | 7 to MLB | WAR 39.3 | High WAR 27.1, SS Yunel Escobar, 2nd rd
2006 | 4 to MLB | WAR 7.3 | High WAR 8.3, RHP Kris Medlen, 10th rd
2007 | 4 to MLB | WAR 71.2 | High WAR 34.9, OF Jason Heyward, 1st rd
2008 | 5 to MLB | WAR 22.5 | High WAR 20.2, RHP Craig Kimbrel, 3rd rd
2009 | 3 to MLB | WAR 10.5 | High WAR 10.2, LHP Mike Minor, 1st rd
2010 | 7 to MLB | WAR 47.9 | High WAR 34.9, SS Andrelton Simmons, 2nd rd
2011 | 8 to MLB | WAR 6.1 | High WAR 5.7, SS Nick Ahmed, 2nd rd
2012 | 3 to MLB | WAR 11.6 | High WAR 11.7, LHP Alex Wood, 2nd rd
2013 | 3 to MLB | WAR (0.5) | High WAR 0.1, C Victor Caratini, 2nd rd
2014 | 2 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 0.4, RHP Chad Sobotka, 4th rd
2015 | 4 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR 1.1, LHP A.J. Minter, 2nd rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR (0.1), RHP Bryse Wilson, 4th rd
2017 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR 0.0, RHP Kyle Wright, 1st rd
The highest WAR to date is that of RHP Adam Wainwright (2000, 1st round). The high total WAR is also from 2000 and includes top performers 2B Kelly Johnson (17.9, 1st round) and 1B Adam LaRoche (14.2, 29th round) in addition to Wainwright. 2000 is closely followed by the 2007 draft which is led by OF Jason Heyward (34.9, 1st round) and 1B Freddie Freeman (33.1, 2nd round). Freeman is the only one of these players who has played his entire career with the Braves. Wainwright never played a single game for the Braves at the MLB level, having been traded to the Cardinals (along with LHP Ray King and RHP Jason Marquis) in December 2003 for one season of OF J.D. Drew and one season of OF Eli Marrero. Atlanta did get to the NLDS that following season (losing to the Astros in five games), but did so by sacrificing the future value of Wainwright.
2018 DRAFT
39 Drafted | 33 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 15 Position Players
29 College | 27 Signed | 13 Pitchers | 14 Position Players
5 JC/CC | 5 Signed | 4 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
5 HS/NS | 1 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 0 Position Players
Notable: The Braves lost their third round pick as a penalty for circumventing international signing rules. Their first round pick (8th overall) Florida HS RHP Carter Stewart went unsigned. The next unsigned pick was 28th round.
PITCHERS
Of the 18 pitchers signed (12 RHP, 6 LHP), all but one (college right-hander Ty Harpenau, 16th round) logged at least some playing time. Four players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, two to Full Season A and two to Advanced A. Two of the pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Braves.
Top Prospects
RHP Tristan Beck, 4th round, Stanford University, Rk
2.2 IP | 2 G / 1 GS | 0.00 ERA | 2.222 WHIP | 2 BB : 7 K
RHP Trey Riley, 5th round, John A. Logan College (JC/CC), Rk
9 IP | 6 G / 2 GS | 8.00 ERA | 2.222 WHIP | 10 BB : 13 K
Noteworthy Debut
RHP Brooks Wilson, 7th round, Stetson University, A
27.2 IP | 17 G / 0 GS | 1.30 ERA | 1.048 WHIP | 9 BB : 25 K
In total, the Atlanta 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.00 ERA and a 1.439 WHIP over 346.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
POSITION PLAYERS
All 15 of the position players signed (2 1B, 2B, 3 3B, SS, 5 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. Seven players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, five to Full Season A and two to Advanced A. One of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Braves.
Top Prospects
OF Greyson Jenista (L/R), 2nd round, Wichita State University, A+
61 G | .265/.328/.395/.723 | 23 BB : 41 K
Noteworthy Debut
3B C.J. Alexander (L/R), 20th round, State College of Florida (JC/CC), A+
52 G | .352/.429/.495/.924 | 27 BB : 42 K
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.
GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.
Coming Next: Miami Marlins
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