My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 916 | Signed 617 | Pitchers Signed 315 | Position Players Signed 302
Total WAR 344.2
Total Players to MLB 85
Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.
1998 | 7 to MLB | WAR 53.9 | High WAR 18.9, 3B Pat Burrell, 1st rd
1999 | 3 to MLB | WAR 39.9 | High WAR 25.3, OF Marlon Byrd, 10th rd
2000 | 3 to MLB | WAR 67.5 | High WAR 65.4, 2B Chase Utley, 1st rd
2001 | 3 to MLB | WAR 30.6 | High WAR 15.6, RHP Gavin Floyd, 1st rd
2002 | 4 to MLB | WAR 54.9 | High WAR 56.4, LHP Cole Hamels, 1st rd
2003 | 3 to MLB | WAR 40.5 | High WAR 22.8, OF Michael Bourn, 4th rd
2004 | 5 to MLB | WAR 21.0 | High WAR 20.8, LHP J.A. Happ, 3rd rd
2005 | 5 to MLB | WAR (1.7) | High WAR 2.6, LHP Josh Outman, 10th rd
2006 | 6 to MLB | WAR 0.9 | High WAR 1.4, SS Jason Donald, 3rd rd
2007 | 7 to MLB | WAR 3.3 | High WAR 2.1, C Travis d'Arnaud, 1st rd
2008 | 10 to MLB | WAR 11.1 | High WAR 5.1, RHP Vance Worley, 3rd rd
2009 | 4 to MLB | WAR 0.1 | High WAR 2.5, OF Aaron Altherr, 34th rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 3.7 | High WAR 3.0, C Cameron Rupp, 3rd rd
2011 | 9 to MLB | WAR 2.9 | High WAR 5.3, RHP Ken Giles, 7th rd
2012 | 4 to MLB | WAR (0.7) | High WAR 0.7, LHP Hoby Milner, 7th rd
2013 | 3 to MLB | WAR (0.4) | High WAR 0.8, SS J.P. Crawford, 1st rd
2014 | 3 to MLB | WAR 18.2 | High WAR 15.5, RHP Aaron Nola, 1st rd
2015 | 1 to MLB | WAR (1.5) | High WAR (1.5), 2B Scott Kingery, 2nd rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
The high total WAR is from 2000 and is almost exclusively fueled by the highest individual WAR, that of 2B Chase Utley (1st round, 65.4 WAR). Utley's 13 seasons with the Phillies provided the bulk of his WAR (61.8). He was traded to the Dodgers in August 2015 and was released by them in November 2018. Utley earned four Silver Sluggers, six All-Star nods and one World Series ring (2008).
2018 DRAFT
38 Drafted | 32 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 16 Position Players
21 College | 20 Signed | 8 Pitchers | 12 Position Players
6 JC/CC | 5 Signed | 4 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
11 HS/NS | 7 Signed | 4 Pitchers | 3 Position Players
Notable: The Phillies forfeited their second and third round picks in exchange for signing 1B Carlos Santana and RHP Jake Arrieta. The Phillies failed to sign two of their top 25 picks (HS RHP Daniel Carpenter, 15th round and HS RHP Jake Smith, 21st round).
PITCHERS
Of the 16 pitchers signed (13 RHP, 3 LHP), all but one (40th round junior college RHP Waylon Richardson) logged at least some playing time. Two of these pitchers received playing time above the Short Season A* level, both at Full Season A (and both for only one appearance at the end of the regular season). Two of these pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Phillies.
Top Prospects
RHP Colton Eastman, 4th round, California State University Fullerton, SSA
18 IP | 8 G / 8 GS | 3.00 ERA | 1.389 WHIP | 7 BB : 23 K
RHP Dominic Pipkin, 9th round, Pinole Valley HS (CA), Rk
29.2 IP | 10 G / 8 GS | 3.64 ERA | 1.180 WHIP | 8 BB : 18 K
RHP James McArthur, 12th round, University of Mississippi, A
33.1 IP | 10 G / 6 GS | 0.54 ERA | 0.810 WHIP | 11 BB : 35 K
LHP Keylan Killgore, 17th round, Wichita State University, A
23 IP | 15 G / 0 GS | 0.78 ERA | 0.696 WHIP | 5 BB : 29 K | 10 Saves
In total, the Philadelphia 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.05 ERA and a 1.221 WHIP over 298 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 16 position players signed (2 1B, 3 3B, 3 SS, 4 OF, 4 C) logged at least some playing time in 2018. Two players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, both to Full Season A. One of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Phillies (in the Top 10).
Top Prospects
🔟 Alec Bohm (R/R), 1st round, Wichita State University, SSA
40 G | .252/.335/.324/.659 | 12 BB : 23 K
🔟 Top 10 Prospect
OF Matt Vierling (R/R), 5th round, University of Notre Dame, A
62 G | .321/.365/.496/.860 | 13 BB : 40 K | 7 SB : 6 CS | 18 2B / 1 3B / 7 HR
(50 of Vierling's 62 games were with Full Season A)
1B Madison Stokes (R/R), 10th round, University of South Carolina, A
55 G | .299/.372/.433/.805 | 20 BB : 41 K | 1 SB : 1 CS | 14 2B / 3 3B / 2 HR
In total, the Phillies 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .271/.352/.393/.745 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.
GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.
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