Showing posts with label Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Draft. Show all posts

Thursday, February 13, 2020

A Conversation with Astros Scout Jim Stevenson

The one constant that I’ve found throughout my years of writing about baseball is this. Baseball people love to talk about baseball. This was definitely the case last week when I talked with Astros Scout Jim Stevenson. A professional scout since 1994, Stevenson previously scouted for Cleveland and Milwaukee and has been with the Astros since November of 2007, a remarkable tenure given the comings and goings of Astros staff over the last several years.

The 2007 draft was, in my mind, the worst draft in Astros history prompting a change to the scouting department. Bobby Heck was brought in as Director of Scouting under General Manager Ed Wade and Heck, in turn, brought in Stevenson to serve as an Area Scout. The five years in which Heck and Stevenson worked side by side were productive years, culminating with 11 drafted players peppering the 2015 Astros postseason roster. In addition, several players drafted under Heck were traded for players instrumental to the success of that team.

Jim Stevenson - Twitter profile photo

Since coming to the Astros, Stevenson (who lives in Tulsa) has been the Area Scout for Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and north and west Texas (roughly north of I-20). He has had several success stories, but none quite so prominent as 2015 Cy Young winner LHP Dallas Keuchel. As a Friday night pitcher in the SEC, it isn’t surprising to Stevenson that Keuchel went on to have success in the big leagues, but he says, “At the same time, we didn’t get a whole lot of looks at him. I really banged the table for that one and Bobby was great. He trusted me.”

But Stevenson is very excited about another of his signings who he sees as having the chance to be a real impact player. Unfortunately, that impact will not benefit the Astros. Stevenson signed OF Ramon Laureano in the 16th round in 2014 out of Northeast Oklahoma A&M College (the Astros were the only team to actually call him to talk). Laureano was traded to the A’s in November 2017 for RHP Brandon Bailey (who was claimed by the Orioles in the Rule 5 Draft in December). Laureano went on to make his MLB debut in August 2018 and has since made quite an impression. As Stevenson puts it, “He was hurt last year and still hit .288 with 24 home runs.”

Laureano’s performance came as a surprise to a lot of people but not to Stevenson. Stevenson has a close bond with Laureano that is uncommon between scout and player. They still keep in close touch and it has given Stevenson the opportunity to really get to know the type of player and type of person Laureano is. Needless to say, Stevenson wasn’t a fan of the trade.

Laureano had struggled badly to start the 2017 season in AA. According to Stevenson, Laureano was his own worst enemy in that he was putting so much pressure on himself to succeed and, in retrospect, getting invited to big league camp that year probably added to the pressure he was feeling. At this point, some in the Astros front office had cooled on Laureano, but Stevenson felt that the team had overlooked the X factor of Laureano’s makeup. “That’s what separates the guys who get to the big leagues and stick and the guys who don’t. It’s the makeup. We knew he had great makeup. Hinch called him a machine in Spring Training that year,” said Stevenson. Despite Laureano’s turnaround later in the season, the Astros chose to make a trade within their division that may very well come back to haunt them.

The period from August 2018 through August 2019 was a particularly gratifying time for Stevenson as five players he signed made their major league debuts. Four of those five were from the 11th round or lower. “Your success when you look at yourself and you pride yourself in who have you drafted and gotten to the big leagues and then second, who have you drafted and gotten to the big leagues that was a later round pick. Those are the guys that really give you pride and make you want to go out and work harder at finding other ones,” said Stevenson. In addition to Laureano (16th round), Stevenson also signed RHP Dean Deetz (11th round, September 2018 debut); RHP Josh James (34th round, September 2018 debut); IF Jack Mayfield (NDFA, May 2019 debut); and 3B Abraham Toro (5th round, August 2019). Stevenson continued, “I was blessed. Toro was a fifth rounder, but still he was from a juco, a Canadian kid, not a real high profile guy. That five guys went to the big leagues over two years was pretty special. It never happens.”

Of those debuts, Mayfield is definitely the best feel-good story of the bunch. Stevenson “begged and begged and begged” to take Mayfield all day on Day 3 of the draft in 2013, but he went unsigned. According to Stevenson, he kept after (former Astros Director of Decision Sciences) Sig Mejdal about Mayfield, “I said, Sig please, just sign this kid. He’s a great player. His makeup’s off the charts. He’s bilingual. His teammates will love him. His coaches will love him.” Ultimately Stevenson prevailed in getting Mayfield signed as a non-drafted free agent. “He was always a really good player. You want to talk about just a baseball player. His tools don’t stand out. Nothing he does is great. But what he does, he brings his A game every night. He makes all the plays that he’s supposed to make. And he’s got some pop in his bat. And he’s always liked being there in the moment, the guy that you want up at bat. At all the levels, he’s like the team MVP that goes unrecognized every year with every club. And he’s one of the greatest human beings in baseball,” said Stevenson.

I also asked Stevenson if there was a player that stood out as one who got away and he told me a very entertaining story about A.J. Burnett. Back when Burnett was drafted in 1995, the scouting world was a lot different than it is now. Stevenson described the days before social media, before the showcase events when “you carried a pocketful of dimes and quarters” because you relied on payphones to make phone calls. “You went and found guys on your own. And now everyone knows who the top kids are. It’s on social media. It’s on twitter. It’s on the baseball blogs. Now you know who the kids are,” said Stevenson. But in the mid 90’s it was different.

On scouting Burnett, Stevenson said, “I thought this is a guy that I’m going to get. Nobody knows about him and it’s (only) weeks before the draft. He comes out of a tiny little Christian school in the middle of Arkansas.” At that time, only a few small college coaches had seen Burnett plus a bird dog scout for the Royals who “couldn’t keep a secret” and tipped Stevenson off. “I went and saw him and I was like, oh my God. You can dream on this guy all you want. He was only (throwing) 90, 91, nothing great, but the kid was 6’4” or 6’5”. You could just dream on him. His arm worked. He could spin the curveball. He had a feel for the changeup. But he was so immature on the mound. He had no idea what he was doing. He was green.” Even so, Stevenson had seen enough that he called for his crosschecker to take a look at Burnett.

Stevenson continued the story, “So now it’s three weeks before the draft. I kid you not. A.J. was great that day (when the crosschecker came to see him). If you watched his mannerisms during the game … he was playing air guitar on the mound … you have to overlook all that. He didn’t even know what professional baseball was. I was working with the Cleveland Indians at the time. I was the area guy. And I sat down and talked to him and we had a great talk and I really got to know him.” Stevenson went back to see Burnett for one last game, got to the parking lot and saw the Scouting Director for the Mets. “And I’m thinking, Oh my God, what is he doing here? He and the area guy are going to see another guy in Arkansas. They were at the wrong field and happened to stumble into this kid by accident. Everything I had in me was kind of deflated. That was the guy that I thought, I’ve got this one for sure. They ended up taking him in the 8th round that year.”

“That was before the internet and all this stuff that goes on now where everyone knows who everyone is. And that was the fun of it when we started. You had to go find your own. Now they give me a list of a hundred guys and (tell me to) go find some juco guys if you want to. They give me all the top high school names and the top D1 guys (to scout). We don’t have any information on the juco guys and we don’t have any information on any D2, D3 guys so those guys I can go find on my own. But that’s what it used to be like in the whole draft. Now you go to high school games with the top tiers, there are 50-60 guys there (scouting).”

Scouting has changed a lot with the advance of analytics, but it’s not just the Astros. The changes are industry wide. Scouts are encouraged to turn in reports on as many players as they can with the front office doing more of the "sifting out" than the area scouts do. The scouts still look for the unheralded players out there, but the scout’s influence in getting players signed has diminished somewhat. Stevenson’s opinion still counts, but maybe not as much as it did in the pre-analytics days. But that won’t stop him from looking for that diamond in the rough, that guy that nobody knows about. It won’t stop him from banging the table on Day 3 to get a Josh James or a Jack Mayfield signed.

Stevenson has just rolled with all of the changes in the industry. The fact that he has lasted 12 years in an Astros organization that has seen scores of people come and go is evidence enough that he must be doing something right. “I love the Houston Astros. I love all the guys I work with. It’s not the Houston Astros have changed. The whole industry has changed,” said Stevenson. He’s looking forward to working with the new GM, but most of all he’s looking forward to the draft. “Our Super Bowl is the draft. That’s what I’m looking forward to. I still enjoy the hunt, the hunt out looking for that guy. You may not get him, but I like finding that guy every year who’s flying under the radar. Those are the fun ones, the late round guys. I’m going to keep going and hopefully find some this year.”

>>>>>>><<<<<<<

I truly enjoyed my conversation with Stevenson. We ended up on so many tangents that I didn't even get to all of my questions. But I have a feeling I'll be talking with Stevenson again and can get some of those other questions answered plus others that may come up because baseball people love talking about baseball. Thanks for your time, Jim!


Tuesday, June 4, 2019

2019 Astros Draft Picks/Undrafted Free Agents on Social Media

Welcome to the Houston Astros 2019 Draft class! What the Heck, Bobby? would like to wish you nothing but the best in your endeavors as you begin your own personal journeys to Minute Maid Park.

This page contains the Twitter (or Instagram) accounts of the 2019 draft class and will be updated as the Draft progresses. Accounts for non-drafted free agents will also be included here. In the event that they are not on Twitter, their Instagram accounts (if they have one) will be listed instead. If you find a player on social media that we may have missed, please leave a note in the comments.

The Astros Player Twitter list will be updated as each player officially signs. Those who have signed are shown in bold.

Round 1, Pick 32: Korey Lee, C, Cal - @koreyleeeeee
Round 2, Pick 68: Grae Kessinger, SS, Ole Miss - @Swagulater15
Round 3, Pick 106: Jordan Brewer, CF, Michigan - @B_R_5_5_Z_Y
Round 4, Pick 136: Colin Barber, CF, Pleasant Valley High School (Chico, California) -  on Instagram @barber9_ (Private account); committed to Oregon
Round 5, Pick 166: Hunter Brown, RHP, Wayne State - @xhunterbrownx
Round 6, Pick 196: Matthew Barefoot, CF, Campbell - @Mattfoot8
Round 7, Pick 226: Blair Henley, RHP, Texas - @blairhenley17
Round 8, Pick 256: Luis Guerrero, CF, Miami-Dade College; commited to South Florida
Round 9, Pick 286: Peyton Battenfield, RHP, Oklahoma State - @PBattenfield; has not tweeted since 2015
Round 10, Pick 316: C.J. Stubbs, C, Southern Cal - @cj_stubbs1
Round 11, Pick 346: Ryan Gusto, RHP, Florida Southwestern State College - @ryangusto11; has not tweeted since 2017, committed to Western Kentucky
Round 12, Pick 376: Garrett Gayle, RHP, Rice - @GarrettGayle37 (Private account)
Round 13, Pick 406: Kevin Holcomb, RHP, Glendale College (California); committed to UCLA
Round 14, Pick 436: Derek West, RHP, Pittsburgh - @DWestPitt
Round 15, Pick 466: Cole McDonald, RHP, Iowa - @mcdonald_cole
Round 16, Pick 496: Dexter Jordan, 2B, Pearl River Community College - @dexjordan20 (signed according to Baseball America)
Round 17, Pick 526: Danny Cody, RHP, Baldwin Wallace - @DannyCody13 (Private account)
Round 18, Pick 556: Justin Campbell, RHP, Simi Valley High School (Simi Valley, California) - @juhjuh162710; committed to Tulane
Round 19, Pick 586: Tyler Krabbe, C, Montevallo - @Tkrabbe22 (signed according to Baseball America)
Round 20, Pick 616: Alex Palmer, RHP, Stephen F. Austin - @Theliontails (Private account)
Round 21, Pick 646: Davis Vainer, RHP, Alabama - @the_bald_buddha
Round 22, Pick 676: Shea Barry, RHP, UC Santa Barbara - @smbarry7
Round 23, Pick 706: Zach Biermann, 1B, Coastal Carolina - @ZBiermann45
Round 24: Pick 736: Preston Pavlica, CF, Grand Canyon - @CallMePav
Round 25, Pick 766: E.P. Reese, CF, Winston-Salem State - @epreese_iv
Round 26, Pick 796: Chandler Casey, RHP, Lubbock Christian - @chandler24_SL
Round 27, Pick 826: Kevin Dickey, LHP, Seminole State (Oklahoma) - @15kevindickey; committed to Texas Tech
Round 28, Pick 856: Bryan Arias, 2B, Texas-San Antonio - @TheBryanArias
Round 29, Pick 886: Whit Drennan, LHP, Rollins College - @WhitDrennan
Round 30, Pick 916: Michael Horrell, RHP, Campbell - @mhorrell106
Round 31, Pick 946: Peyton Plumlee, RHP, Mississippi State - @Peytonplum1
Round 32, Pick 976: Oscar Carvajal, RHP, Fresno State - @OscarOskie
Round 33, Pick 1006: Bryan Martinez, LHP, Connors State College - @BryanMa50247503 (Private account)
Round 34, Pick 1036: A.J. Lee, SS, Maryland - @AJ_Lee02
Round 35, Pick 1066: James Nix, RF, College of Central Florida - @jamesnix40; committed to South Carolina
Round 36, Pick 1096: Chandler Murphy, RHP, Liberty High School (Peoria, Arizona) - @chandler2233; committed to Arizona
Round 37, Pick 1126: Max Dias, 3B, Porter High School (Porter, Texas) - @MDD_5; committed to New Orleans
Round 38, Pick 1156: J.C. Correa, SS, Lamar - @Jc_Correa1
Round 39, Pick 1186: Brock Rudy, C, Northgate High School (Walnut Creek, California) - @rudy17_brock; committed to Utah
Round 40, Pick 1216: Dillon Plew, 1B, Washington State - @LilPlewy22

Undrafted Free Agents

In the past, there were several players who had apparently signed with the Astros and had received congratulatory messages from old coaches/family/teammates/etc., but they never actually appeared in a game in the organization. We will withhold UDFA social media information until they have appeared on the roster of an Astros minor league affiliate.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

2018 Draft Summary

Earlier this month, I posted a summary of draft results to date for 20 years, starting in 1998 and continuing through 2017. Now it's time to look at the early results of the 2018 draft class. (These summaries emanate from a much deeper team-by-team analysis that was rolled out earlier this year. Links to the team-by-team information can be found at the end of this post.)

This post is an attempt to summarize the initial results of the 2018 draft in order to get an idea as to how a particular draft class plays out over time. This is just the start of an ongoing analysis that will follow this draft class going forward, looking at both the success (or failure) of individual players and how those players may ultimately benefit the team that drafted them (even if the player never plays for the drafting team and that benefit comes in the form of trade value), the makeup of the class, the likelihood of making it to the majors and other such minutiae. I plan to revisit and update information on both the historical and newer draft classes in the next offseason and I'll just see where the data takes me. This project stems from my curiosity about the draft in general and my enjoyment in sorting through myriad pixels in order to ultimately access the bigger picture. (I know. I'm a little weird.)

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference. The player position reflects the primary position at which the player actually played in 2018 (and not necessarily the position at which he was drafted).

2018 DRAFT RESULTS

1214 Drafted | 960 Signed (79.1%)
658 Pitchers Drafted | 510 Signed (77.5%)
556 Position Players Drafted | 450 Signed (80.9%)
805 College Players Drafted | 752 Signed (93.4%)
104 JC/CC Players Drafted | 67 Signed (64.4%)
305 HS/NS Players Drafted | 141 Signed (46.2%)
7 Players Released/Retired as of 12/31/18 (0.73% of Signed Players)

POSITION BREAKDOWN (Primary Position in 2018*)

391 RHP Signed: 322 C | 27 JC/CC | 42 HS/NS
119 LHP Signed: 96 C | 9 JC/CC | 14 HS/NS
84 C Signed: 60 C | 9 JC/CC | 15 HS
38 1B Signed: 34 C | 1 JC/CC | 3 HS
49 2B Signed: 44 C | 1 JC/CC | 4 HS
52 3B Signed: 40 C | 4 JC/CC | 8 HS
57 SS Signed: 35 C | 2 JC/CC | 20 HS
170 OF Signed: 121 C | 14 JC/CC | 35 HS

*Two additional OF and one additional 1B can be added to the position player totals to account for two-way players who are included in the pitcher totals.

2018 DRAFT OVERALL BY AFFILIATE (PITCHERS)

Overall: 3.67 ERA | 1.299 WHIP
376.2 Avg IP Per Affiliate
25 Avg IP Per Active Pitcher

59 Pitchers did not pitch in 2018 (44 C, 5 JC/CC, 10 HS)

Lowest WHIP
Indians: 2.41 ERA | 1.138 WHIP | 336.2 IP | 14 Active Pitchers
Blue Jays: 3.22 ERA | 1.149 WHIP | 389 IP | 17 Active Pitchers
Rays: 3.07 ERA | 1.179 WHIP | 563.1 IP | 20 Active Pitchers
Rangers: 3.27 ERA | 1.201 WHIP | 170.2 IP | 9 Active Pitchers
Astros: 2.74 ERA | 1.207 WHIP | 364.2 IP | 16 Active Pitchers

Highest WHIP
Orioles: 3.97 ERA | 1.449 WHIP | 330.2 IP | 16 Active Pitchers
Braves: 3.98 ERA | 1.431 WHIP | 348.2 IP | 17 Active Pitchers
Angels: 4.63 ERA | 1.399 WHIP | 281.2 IP | 12 Active Pitchers
Reds: 4.73 ERA | 1.396 WHIP | 467.2 IP | 16 Active Pitchers
Seattle: 4.44 ERA | 1.378 WHIP | 316.1 IP | 15 Active Pitchers

Highest Average Innings Pitched
Cardinals: 36.1 IP | 17 Active Pitchers
White Sox: 35 IP | 15 Active Pitchers
Tigers: 33.1 IP | 15 Active Pitchers
Royals: 30.1 IP | 18 Active Pitchers
Pirates: 29.2 IP | 16 Active Pitchers
Reds: 29.1 IP | 16 Active Pitchers

Lowest Average Innings Pitched
Mets: 16.1 IP | 15 Active Pitchers
Yankees: 18.2 IP | 16 Active Pitchers
Rangers: 19 IP | 9 Active Pitchers
Cubs: 19.1 IP | 13 Active Pitchers
Marlins: 19.1 IP | 17 Active Pitchers
Phillies: 19.2 IP | 15 Active Pitchers

Lowest Hits Per Nine Innings
Astros: 6.64 H/9 | 16 Active Pitchers
Blue Jays: 6.76 H/9 | 16 Active Pitchers
Mets: 7.12 H/9 | 15 Active Pitchers
Athletics: 7.23 H/9 | 14 Active Pitchers
Rangers: 7.38 H/9 | 9 Active Pitchers

Lowest Walks Per Nine Innings
Indians: 2.30 BB/9 | 14 Active Pitchers
Cardinals: 2.42 BB/9 | 17 Active Pitchers
Red Sox: 2.44 BB/9 | 13 Active Pitchers
White Sox: 2.68 BB/9 | 15 Active Pitchers
Tigers: 2.71 BB/9 | 15 Active Pitchers
Nationals: 2.74 BB/9 | 15 Active Pitchers

Highest Strikeouts Per Nine Innings
Indians: 11.63 SO/9 | 14 Active Pitchers
Angels: 11.22 SO/9 | 12 Active Pitchers
Padres: 11.08 SO/9 | 13 Active Pitchers
Mets: 10.85 SO/9 | 15 Active Pitchers
Yankees: 10.57 SO/9 | 16 Active Pitchers

2018 INDIVIDUAL DRAFT PICKS IN 2018 (PITCHERS)

Player's highest level played in 2018 noted*

Lowest WHIP (Minimum 30 IP)
LHP Michael Mediavilla (Brewers): 0.59 ERA | 0.626 WHIP | 30.1 IP | Rk
RHP Ryan Feltner (Rockies): 0.88 ERA | 0.652 WHIP | 30.2 IP | Rk
RHP Simon Rosemblum-Larson (Rays): 1.16 ERA | 0.724 WHIP | 38.2 IP | A
RHP Connor Coward (Cardinals): 0.88 ERA | 0.732 WHIP | 41 IP | Rk
RHP Michael Baird (Cardinals): 1.61 ERA | 0.739 WHIP | 44.2 IP | SSA
RHP Ethan DeCaster (Tigers): 0.84 ERA | 0.781 WHIP | 32 IP | A+
RHP James McArthur (Phillies): 0.54 ERA | 0.810 WHIP | 33.1 IP | A
RHP Gus Varland (Athletics): 0.95 ERA | 0.816 WHIP | 38 IP | A
RHP Brett Daniels (Astros): 1.62 ERA | 0.840 WHIP | 33.1 IP | SSA
LHP Drew Rom (Orioles): 1.76 ERA | 0.848 WHIP | 30.2 IP | Rk

Lowest Hits Per Nine Innings (Minimum 30 IP)
RHP Cole Uvila (Rangers): 3.69 H/9 | 31.2 IP | SSA
RHP Austin Hansen (Astros): 4.11 H/9 | 30.2 IP | SSA
LHP Michael Mediavilla (Brewers): 4.15 H/9 | 30.1 IP | Rk
RHP James McArthur (Phillies): 4.32 H/9 | 33.1 IP | A
RHP Simon Rosenblum-Larson (Rays): 4.42 H/9 | 38.2 IP | A
RHP Ryan Feltner (Rockies): 4.70 H/9 | 30.2 IP | Rk
RHP Josiah Gray (Reds/Traded to Dodgers): 4.99 H/9 | 52.1 IP | Rk
RHP Connor Coward (Cardinals): 5.05 H/9 | 41 IP | Rk
RHP Joey Pulido (Blue Jays): 5.15 H/9 | 36.2 IP | SSA
LHP Will Tribucher (Rockies): 5.23 H/9 | 31 IP | Rk

Highest Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (Minimum 30 IP)
RHP Kyler Stout (D'Backs): 14.75 SO/9 | 32.1 IP | A
LHP Clayton Andrews (Brewers): 14.73 SO/9 | 33 IP | A
RHP Simon Rosemblum-Larson (Rays): 14.43 SO/9 | 38.2 | A
RHP Austin Ross (Phillies): 14.01 SO/9 | 35.1 | SSA
LHP Austin Cox (Royals): 13.77 SO/9 | 33.1 | Rk
RHP Cole Uvila (Rangers): 13.64 SO/9 | 31.2 IP | SSA
LHP Eli Lingos (Indians): 13.22 SO/9 | 32 IP | SSA
RHP Austin Hansen (Astros): 13.21 SO/9 | 30.2 IP | SSA
RHP Perry DellaValle (Cardinals): 13.20 SO/9 | 45.2 IP | Rk
RHP Daniel Bies (Yankees): 12.90 SO/9 | 30 IP | SSA

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

2018 DRAFT PICKS IN 2018 (POSITION PLAYERS)

Overall: .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line

8 Position Players did not play in 2018 (6 C, 2 HS)

High OPS
Rockies: .291/.371/.479/.850 | 14 Active Players
D'Backs: .288/.374/.440/.815 | 11 Active Players
Dodgers: .275/.367/.433/.800 | 19 Active Players
Twins: .281/.366/.427/.793 | 16 Active Players
Indians: .276/.373/.409/.783 | 14 Active Players
Royals: .282/.364/.412/.776 | 13 Active Players

Low OPS
Orioles: .219/.298/.322/.619 | 14 Active Players
Angels: .239/.317/.350/.667 | 9 Active Players
Cubs: .251/.333/.337/.670 | 15 Active Players
Athletics: .243/.339/.343/.682 | 18 Active Players
Astros: .232/.324/.362/.686 | 14 Active Players
Rangers: .253/.339/.347/.686 | 11 Active Players

2018 INDIVIDUAL DRAFT PICKS IN 2018 (POSITION PLAYERS)

Player's highest level played in 2018 noted*

High Individual Average (Minimum 200 PA)
OF Cal Stevenson (Blue Jays): .369/.511/.523/1.034 | Rk
OF Jarren Duran (Red Sox): .357/.394/.516/.910 | A
1B Zach Shannon (D'Backs): .354/.439/.677/1.116 | Rk
OF Nathan Eaton (Royals): .354/.427/.581/1.008 | Rk
3B C.J. Alexander (Braves): .352/.429/.495/.924 | A+
1B Grant Lavigne (Rockies): .350/.477/.519/.996 | Rk
C Ryan Jeffers (Twins): .344/.444/.502/.946 | A
3B Bobby Honeyman (Mariners): .336/.370/.460/.830 | A+
SS Owen Miller (Padres): .336/.386/.460/.846 | A
2B Coco Montes (Rockies): .333/.413/.513/.926 | Rk
OF Alek Thomas (D'Backs): .333/.395/.463/.858 | Rk

High Individual OPS (Minimum 200 PA)
1B Zach Shannon (D'Backs): .354/.439/.677/1.116 | Rk
OF Cal Stevenson (Blue Jays): .369/.511/.523/1.034 | Rk
OF Jonah Davis (Pirates): .306/.398/.612/1.010 | Rk
OF Nathan Eaton (Royals): .354/.427/.581/1.008 | Rk
1B Grant Lavigne (Rockies): .350/.477/.519/.996 | Rk
OF Jordan Qsar (Rays): .289/.422/.573/.996 | SSA
OF Niko Hulsizer (Dodgers): .281/.426/.531/.957 | Rk
SS Blaze Alexander (D'Backs): .329/.417/.538/.955 | Rk
OF Matt Cogen (Dodgers): .313/.403/.550/.953 | A
C Joey Bart (Giants): .294/.364/.588/.952 | SSA

High Individual Runs Scored
OF Cal Stevenson (Blue Jays): 73 R | 59 G | Rk
OF Nathan Eaton (Royals): 59 R | 66 G | Rk
OF Will Golsan (Rockies): 58 R | 63 G | Rk
OF Kyle Isbel (Royals): 57 R | 64 G | A
OF Niko Decolati (Rockies): 55 R | 69 G | Rk
2B Coco Montes (Rockies): 55 R | 69 G | Rk

High Individual Doubles
3B David Villar (Giants): 23 2B | 62 G | SSA
OF Kyle Isbel (Royals): 22 2B | 64 G | A
OF Nathan Eaton (Royals): 20 2B | 66 G | Rk
1B Nick Gatewood (Padres): 20 2B | 60 G | SSA
1B Dillon Paulson (Dodgers): 20 2B | 58 G | Rk

High Individual Triples
OF Nathan Eaton (Royals): 12 3B | 66 G | Rk
OF Ross Adolph (Mets/Traded to Astros): 12 3B | 61 G | SSA
OF Jarren Duran (Red Sox): 11 3B | 67 G | A
OF Justin Dean (Braves): 9 3B | 60 G | A

High Individual Home Runs
3B Nolan Gorman (Cardinals): 17 HR | 63 G | A
OF Keegan McGovern (Mariners): 15 HR | 69 G | A
1B Chris Williams (Twins): 15 HR | 62 G | Rk
OF Jordan Qsar (Rays): 14 HR | 62 G | SSA
1B Zach Shannon (D'Backs): 14 HR | 54 G | Rk

High Individual RBI
1B Dillon Paulson (Dodgers): 61 RBI | 58 G | Rk
OF Drew Mount (Reds): 58 RBI | 65 G | Rk
C David Fry (Brewers): 57 RBI | 63 G | A
OF Niko Decolati (Rockies): 56 RBI | 69 G | Rk
1B Zach Shannon (D'Backs): 55 RBI | 54 G | Rk

High Individual Stolen Bases
OF Danny Amaral (Pirates): 25 SB | 58 G | SSA
OF Jarren Duran (Red Sox): 24 SB | 67 G | A
OF Kyle Isbel (Royals): 24 SB | 64 G | A
SS Frainyer Chavez (Rangers): 23 SB | 45 G | Rk
OF Adrian Ramos (Blue Jays): 23 SB | 44 G | Rk

High Individual Walks
OF Cal Stevenson (Blue Jays): 64 BB | 59 G | Rk
OF Jordan Qsar (Rays): 50 BB | 62 G | SSA
OF Chandler Taylor (Astros): 46 BB | 63 G | A
1B Grant Lavigne (Rockies): 45 BB | 59 G | Rk
OF Cade Harris (Rockies): 43 BB | 59 G | SSA

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

OVERVIEW

I'm not going to rank the affiliates as to the strength of their draft classes (to this point) because, with so many variables, comparing one system to another can often be the equivalent of comparing apples and kumquats. But there were still a few systems that stood out to me in terms of early results, depth, short-term potential, longer-term potential or a combination of all of those factors. And, although there were several franchises who stood out for pitching, but not position players (or vice versa), these are the ones that impressed me early by showing strength in both areas. (These are in no particular order.)

DIAMONDBACKS
There aren't any projected superstars among the Diamondbacks 2018 pitching class, but their overall initial results up and down the pecking order was suggestive of very good depth from their pitching ranks. And with all but one pitcher having been drafted out of college, this group could start factoring into the Diamondbacks plans in a couple of years. Balancing that out are a trio of Top 10 prospects on the position player front (two high school signees) who got off to great starts in their pro careers (plus an intriguing 15th rounder). Based on initial results, you could see a star or two emerge from the group.

RAYS
Based on initial results, the Rays look to have good depth with both pitching and offense as players throughout the draft impressed me with their inaugural seasons. As both groups were college-heavy, it won't take too long to see how much help this draft class will be able to offer the Rays at the major league level. On top of that, you can add a Top 100 high school lefty with potential star power (Matthew Liberatore) who got off to an excellent start. This could ultimately prove to be a very strong group.

PHILLIES
I really like the depth of the Phillies 2018 pitching draft class, particularly with the good mix of college, juco and high school players performing well at a variety of levels. And with college 3B Alec Bohm leading the way as the Phillies top prospect (and #59 overall in the top 100), most position players performed as well or better than expected in their first seasons.

TIGERS
Again, depth is the key with the Tigers as they went for both quality and quantity in 2018, signing 38 of 40 picks (and all of their top 37 picks). Their pitching was particularly strong with the Tigers top prospect overall RHP Casey Mize (ranked #2 RHP prospect as well) handling himself well against the early challenge to High A competition and strong results throughout the class, including the 35th and 36th round picks. The Tigers were very aggressive in promoting several of their position players and a number of them responded well to the challenge. This early exposure to higher competition could move up the timetable for some of these players to help out in Detroit sooner rather than later.

INDIANS
On the flip side of the coin, I am probably more intrigued by the long-term potential of Cleveland's 2018 draft class than I am by any more immediate success. With that said, there were a number of college-drafted pitchers who performed very nicely in 2018 and were promoted to full season teams as a result. But their top two high school pitching picks (currently #9 and #12 prospects in the system) could ultimately help write the story of how successful this draft class will prove to be. In addition, there are a few high school and juco players on the position player side that could portend longer-term success, particularly Cleveland's #4 prospect C Bo Naylor. This draft class will take a little longer to come into focus, but has the potential to generate a star or two.

RANGERS (WILD CARD)
In my mind, the Rangers 2018 draft class is the most uncertain of all in outcome, but should be extremely interesting to watch play out. The Rangers drafted heavily among high school and juco players and currently have four high schoolers numbering in their Top 30 prospect list, including their #3 prospect RHP Cole Winn (who also resides on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list). A total of 11 of their 31 signed draft picks (including 10 of their pitchers) did not play in 2018 so there's not much of a track record to go by at this point. This draft class could be boom or bust, but in any event, it will likely take a while for it to all play out.

I singled out the above teams because I found the draft classes to have the most potential in both pitching and offense, but there are a number of teams that showed very strongly in one area or the other, but not necessarily in both.

On the pitching side, the Pirates college-heavy 2018 draft class has a number of pitchers who could move quickly through the system. The Blue Jays and Astros both showed good depth with a number of lower round pitchers performing nicely in their inaugural seasons. The Royals had mixed results, but with a whopping six pitching prospects in their Top 30 prospects (and four of those in the Top 10), I certainly expect more from some of these prospects moving forward even if they may have underperformed initially.

On the position player side, the Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers were all very aggressive in promoting players and those players responded well. The Marlins, Brewers and Angels, with so many younger players, may be slower to promote players, but will have a lot of high risk/high reward long-term potential. The Rockies had excellent initial results throughout their 2018 draft class. Boston has a good mix of highly touted high school prospects and college players with very good early success; the Yankees group has a similar mix but more uneven initial results. Even with the (apparent) defection of Kyler Murray to football, the top of the Athletics draft class is impressive (although the lower depth may be a bit questionable). On the other hand, I like the depth of the Mariners class and can see a number of their college-drafted players make fast work of the minors.

Other 2018 draft classes will likely achieve success ultimately, but the initial results may have been less than stellar. And there will certainly be individual players who have the chance to be stars who will emerge from draft classes that boast little else of lasting impact. The story of the 2018 draft is really just starting to be written. Stay tuned ...

Monday, March 4, 2019

Twenty Years of MLB Draft History: 1998 - 2017

A couple months back, I started a team-by-team deep dive into 20 years worth of draft history (from 1998 through 2017) in order to get a better handle on the relative success (or failure) of the various franchises over that time period. Links to the team-by-team information can be found at the end of this post. (In addition, there are write-ups looking even more closely at the initial results of the 2018 draft for each team in those posts, but that information will be summarized separately.)

This post is an attempt to summarize the results of the drafts from 1998 through 2017 (to date) in order to see what impact the draft has had on the various affiliates over that time period, which teams and players have had the most success thus far (and which teams and players are seeing the most early success in the later drafts), which years produced the most talent thus far and just how likely it is that a drafted, signed player will make it to The Show. Obviously since there are players from even the early years of this period still playing (I'm looking at you, Sabathia!), this information will evolve as players from all of these draft classes continue to write their baseball histories. I plan to revisit and update this information again during the next offseason in order to watch that evolution.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical draft information, the player position reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). The use of WAR to rank players and teams is simply an attempt to keep the rankings as objective as possible.

HISTORICAL DRAFT RESULTS 1998 - 2017 (TO DATE)

28162 Drafted
18079 Signed
64.2% of Drafted Players Signed
9377 Pitchers Signed
8702 Position Players Signed
9372.5 Total WAR
15.6 Average WAR per Affiliate per Year
2730 Total Players to MLB
15.1% of Players Signed made it to the MLB

HISTORICAL DRAFT RESULTS 1998 - 2007 (TO DATE)

Since many of the players signed in the last few years are still working their way up through the system, let's look at that same data from the first 10 years that I researched to get a better idea of the likelihood of a drafted player getting to the big leagues since presumably most, if not all, the players drafted from 1998 through 2007 will have already made it to the big leagues by now if they're going to make it at all.

14772 Drafted
8653 Signed
58.6% of Drafted Players Signed
4398 Pitchers Signed
4255 Position Players Signed
6852.5 Total WAR
22.8 Average WAR per Affiliate per Year
1521 Total Players to MLB
17.6% of Players Signed made it to the MLB

17.6% of drafted, signed players made it to the majors (albeit some just for a cup of coffee) which translates into a slightly less than 1-in-6 chance of making it to the big leagues.

YEAR-BY-YEAR HISTORIC DRAFT RESULTS 1998 - 2017 (TO DATE)
Highs in each category are in bold.

1998 | 1445 Drafted | 827 Signed | 143 to MLB (17.3%) | 700.3 WAR
1999 | 1474 Drafted | 857 Signed | 147 to MLB (17.2%) | 831.9 WAR
2000 | 1452 Drafted | 847 Signed | 141 to MLB (16.6%) | 688.8 WAR
2001 | 1485 Drafted | 836 Signed | 140 to MLB (16.7%) | 551.1 WAR
2002 | 1482 Drafted | 851 Signed | 152 to MLB (17.9%) | 789.4 WAR
2003 | 1480 Drafted | 829 Signed | 147 to MLB (17.7%) | 552.3 WAR
2004 | 1498 Drafted | 914 Signed | 162 to MLB (17.7%) | 669.2 WAR
2005 | 1501 Drafted | 857 Signed | 150 to MLB (17.5%) | 723.6 WAR
2006 | 1502 Drafted | 889 Signed | 175 to MLB (19.7%) | 714.0 WAR
2007 | 1453 Drafted | 946 Signed | 154 to MLB (16.3%) | 631.9 WAR
2008 | 1504 Drafted | 969 Signed | 196 to MLB (20.2%) | 444.1 WAR
2009 | 1521 Drafted | 926 Signed | 167 to MLB (17.5%) | 650.9 WAR
2010 | 1525 Drafted | 993 Signed | 181 to MLB (18.2%) | 496.4 WAR
2011 | 1529 Drafted | 974 Signed | 193 to MLB (19.8%) | 434.0 WAR
2012 | 1237 Drafted | 919 Signed | 160 to MLB (17.4%) | 246.8 WAR
2013 | 1215 Drafted | 900 Signed | 155 to MLB (17.2%) | 123.2 WAR
2014 | 1214 Drafted | 904 Signed | 90 to MLB (10.0%) | 89.8 WAR
2015 | 1214 Drafted | 948 Signed | 56 to MLB (5.9%) | 32.5 WAR
2016 | 1216 Drafted | 924 Signed | 10 to MLB (1.1%) | 2.3 WAR
2017 | 1215 Drafted | 939 Signed | 1 to MLB (0.1%) | 0.0 WAR

HISTORIC DRAFT RESULTS BY AFFILIATE 1998 - 2017 (TO DATE)
Ranked by WAR; highs in each category are bolded.

Cardinals | 939 Drafted | 742 Signed | 122 to MLB (16.4%) | 502.4 WAR
Red Sox | 946 Drafted | 540 Signed | 94 to MLB (17.4%) | 433.9 WAR
D'Backs | 954 Drafted | 656 Signed | 104 to MLB (15.9%) | 400.2 WAR
Rays | 951 Drafted | 596 Signed | 82 to MLB (13.8%) | 399.8 WAR
Rangers | 947 Drafted | 584 Signed | 94 to MLB (16.1%) | 391.5 WAR
Nationals | 939 Drafted | 568 Signed | 85 to MLB (15.0%) | 376.0 WAR
Braves | 964 Drafted | 562 Signed | 93 to MLB (16.5%) | 356.2 WAR
Brewers | 938 Drafted | 616 Signed | 84 to MLB (13.6%) | 356.0 WAR
Phillies | 916 Drafted | 617 Signed | 85 to MLB (13.8%) | 344.2 WAR
Athletics | 889 Drafted | 601 Signed | 93 to MLB (15.5%) | 341.2 WAR
Angels | 944 Drafted | 667 Signed | 90 to MLB (13.5%) | 331.4 WAR
Rockies | 952 Drafted | 592 Signed | 88 to MLB (14.9%) | 327.8 WAR
Royals | 946 Drafted | 611 Signed | 94 to MLB (15.4%) | 316.7 WAR
Tigers | 912 Drafted | 623 Signed | 92 to MLB (14.8%) | 303.4 WAR
Dodgers | 935 Drafted | 553 Signed | 86 to MLB (15.6%) | 299.5 WAR
Pirates | 937 Drafted | 553 Signed | 86 to MLB (15.6%) | 297.9 WAR
Reds | 951 Drafted | 599 Signed | 83 to MLB (13.9%) | 289.6 WAR
Marlins | 944 Drafted | 628 Signed | 84 to MLB (13.4%) | 288.8 WAR
Cubs | 945 Drafted | 572 Signed | 90 to MLB (15.7%) | 282.3 WAR
Padres | 912 Drafted | 623 Signed | 118 to MLB (18.9%) | 282.3 WAR
Twins | 961 Drafted | 551 Signed | 79 to MLB (14.3%) | 281.0 WAR
White Sox | 946 Drafted | 596 Signed | 87 to MLB (14.6%) | 275.0 WAR
Blue Jays | 938 Drafted | 626 Signed | 103 to MLB (16.5%) | 260.0 WAR
Giants | 944 Drafted | 635 Signed | 115 to MLB (18.1%) | 255.0 WAR
Indians | 952 Drafted | 565 Signed | 79 to MLB (14.0%) | 252.0 WAR
Mets | 931 Drafted | 605 Signed | 95 to MLB (15.7%) | 251.5 WAR
Astros | 904 Drafted | 630 Signed | 76 to MLB (12.1%) | 251.4 WAR
Orioles | 937 Drafted | 603 Signed | 81 to MLB (13.4%) | 236.7 WAR
Mariners | 941 Drafted | 603 Signed | 71 to MLB (11.8%) | 200.9 WAR
Yankees | 947 Drafted | 562 Signed | 97 to MLB (17.3%) | 187.9 WAR

Although the Cardinals have had a great deal of success in the draft over this time period, the numbers are somewhat skewed by "The Pujols Effect." Roughly one-fifth of the total WAR accumulated by all Cardinals drafted players over that time period can be attributed to the outsized contribution of one Albert Pujols.

Further breaking down these results into the earlier 10-year period and the latter 10-year period ...

TOP 5 TOTAL WAR 1998 - 2007 (TO DATE)
(Earlier 10-year period)

Cardinals | 487 Drafted | 376 Signed | 69 to MLB (18.4%) | 378.6 WAR
Red Sox | 497 Drafted | 268 Signed | 49 to MLB (18.3%) | 364.2 WAR
Rays | 495 Drafted | 259 Signed | 50 to MLB (19.3%) | 347.9 WAR
Rangers | 498 Drafted | 279 Signed | 51 to MLB (18.3%) | 326.0 WAR
Phillies | 470 Drafted | 315 Signed | 46 to MLB (14.6%) | 310.8 WAR

BOTTOM 5 TOTAL WAR 1998 - 2007 (TO DATE)
(Earlier 10-year period)

Mariners | 497 Drafted | 254 Signed | 36 to MLB (14.2%) | 113.6 WAR
Astros | 453 Drafted | 291 Signed | 39 to MLB (13.4%) | 123.8 WAR
Giants | 504 Drafted | 314 Signed | 67 to MLB (21.3%) | 132.2 WAR
Blue Jays | 484 Drafted | 305 Signed | 50 to MLB (16.4%) | 155.3 WAR
Indians | 509 Drafted | 292 Signed | 43 to MLB (14.7%) | 156.6 WAR

TOP 5 TOTAL WAR 2008 - 2017 (TO DATE)
(Latter 10-year period)

D'Backs | 452 Drafted | 335 Signed | 42 to MLB (12.5%) | 138.3 WAR
Angels | 445 Drafted | 359 Signed | 40 to MLB (11.1%) | 135.2 WAR
Astros | 451 Drafted | 339 Signed | 37 to MLB (10.9%) | 127.6 WAR
Cardinals | 452 Drafted | 366 Signed | 53 to MLB (14.5%) | 123.8 WAR
Giants | 440 Drafted | 321 Signed | 48 to MLB (15.0%) | 122.8 WAR

BOTTOM 5 TOTAL WAR 2008 - 2017 (TO DATE)
(Latter 10-year period)

Yankees | 443 Drafted | 284 Signed | 49 to MLB (17.3%) | 30.4 WAR
Phillies | 446 Drafted | 302 Signed | 39 to MLB (12.9%) | 33.4 WAR
Tigers | 439 Drafted | 308 Signed | 38 to MLB (12.3%) | 46.6 WAR
Rays | 456 Drafted | 337 Signed | 32 to MLB (9.5%) | 51.9 WAR
Reds | 447 Drafted | 293 Signed | 36 to MLB (12.3%) | 52.8 WAR

TOP 20 DRAFT CLASSES BY HIGH TOTAL WAR 1998 - 2017 (TO DATE)

1999 | Cardinals | 8 to MLB | 133.6 WAR
2000 | Expos | 7 to MLB | 95.8 WAR
2009 | Angels | 6 to MLB | 95.0 WAR
1998 | White Sox | 6 to MLB | 89.2 WAR
2003 | Rangers | 5 to MLB | 87.4 WAR
2004 | Astros | 6 to MLB | 77.9 WAR
2006 | Rays | 7 to MLB | 77.8 WAR
2000 | Braves | 9 to MLB | 71.7 WAR
2007 | Braves | 4 to MLB | 71.2 WAR
1999 | Rays | 6 to MLB | 70.9 WAR
2009 | D'Backs | 12 to MLB | 70.5 WAR
2005 | Nationals | 6 to MLB | 70.5 WAR
2002 | Reds | 2 to MLB | 69.3 WAR
2001 | Rangers | 2 to MLB | 69.2 WAR
1998 | Rockies | 8 to MLB | 68.9 WAR
2005 | Brewers | 6 to MLB | 68.8 WAR
2000 | Pirates | 5 to MLB | 68.1 WAR
2000 | Phillies | 3 to MLB | 67.5 WAR
2006 | Yankees | 10 to MLB | 67.2 WAR
2006 | Dodgers | 2 to MLB | 67.1 WAR

MY NOMINEES FOR THE 5 WORST DRAFT CLASSES 1998 - 2017 (TO DATE)

2001 | Reds | 50 Drafted | 23 Signed | 0 to MLB | N/A WAR
2007 | Astros | 42 Drafted | 34 Signed | 0 to MLB | N/A WAR
1998 | Angels | 50 Drafted | 35 Signed | 1 to MLB | -0.7 WAR
2000 | Orioles | 43 Drafted | 21 Signed | 1 to MLB | -0.5 WAR
2005 | Cubs | 51 Drafted | 33 Signed | 1 to MLB | -0.1 WAR

YEAR-BY-YEAR HIGH TOTAL WAR 1998 - 2017 (TO DATE)

1998 | White Sox | 6 to MLB | 89.2 WAR
1999 | Cardinals | 8 to MLB | 133.6 WAR
2000 | Expos | 7 to MLB | 95.8
2001 | Rangers | 2 to MLB | 69.2 WAR
2002 | Reds | 2 to MLB | 69.3 WAR
2003 | Rangers | 5 to MLB | 87.4 WAR
2004 | Astros | 6 to MLB | 77.9 WAR
2005 | Nationals | 6 to MLB | 70.5 WAR
2006 | Rays | 7 to MLB | 77.8 WAR
2007 | Braves | 4 to MLB | 71.2 WAR
2008 | Giants | 8 to MLB | 63.0 WAR
2009 | Angels | 6 to MLB | 95.0 WAR
2010 | White Sox | 5 to MLB | 53.6 WAR
2011 | Red Sox | 8 to MLB | 61.1 WAR
2012 | Athletics | 7 to MLB | 29.0 WAR
2013 | Cubs | 4 to MLB | 24.4 WAR
2014 | Phillies | 3 to MLB | 18.2 WAR
2015 | Astros | 3 to MLB | 12.0 WAR
2016 | Indians | 1 to MLB | 1.1 WAR
2017 | Braves | 1 to MLB | 0.0 WAR

YEAR-BY-YEAR HIGH INDIVIDUAL WAR 1998 - 2017 (TO DATE)

(Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.)

1998 | 62.7 WAR, LHP C.C. Sabathia, 1st rd | Indians
1999 | 100.0 WAR, 3B Albert Pujols, 13th rd | Cardinals
2000 | 65.4 WAR, 2B Chase Utley, 1st rd | Phillies
2001 | 55.1 WAR, C Joe Mauer, 1st rd | Twins
2002 | 65.7 WAR, RHP Zach Greinke, 1st rd | Royals
2003 | 57.3 WAR, SS Ian Kinsler, 17th rd | Rangers
2004 | 63.4 WAR, RHP Justin Verlander, 1st rd | Tigers
2005 | 46.4 WAR, 3B Ryan Braun, 1st rd | Brewers
2006 | 64.6 WAR, LHP Clayton Kershaw, 1st rd | Dodgers
2007 | 39.2 WAR, 1B Giancarlo Stanton, 2nd rd | Marlins
2008 | 41.3 WAR, C Buster Posey, 1st rd | Giants
2009 | 64.3 WAR, OF Mike Trout, 1st rd | Angels
2010 | 43.1 WAR, LHP Chris Sale, 1st rd | White Sox
2011 | 35.2 WAR, SS Mookie Betts, 5th rd | Red Sox
2012 | 18.3 WAR, SS Carlos Correa, 1st rd | Astros
2013 | 21.6 WAR, 3B Kris Bryant, 1st rd | Cubs
2014 | 15.5 WAR, RHP Aaron Nola, 1st rd | Phillies
2015 | 12.7 WAR, SS Alex Bregman, 1st rd | Astros
2016 | 1.1 WAR, RHP Shane Bieber, 4th rd | Indians
2017 | 0.0 WAR, RHP Kyle Wright*, 1st rd | Braves

*Wright is the only 2017 drafted player to have made his MLB debut as of the end of the 2018 season.

HIGH INDIVIDUAL WAR OVERALL 1998 - 2017

(Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.)

1999 | 100.0 WAR, 3B Albert Pujols, 13th rd | Cardinals
2002 | 65.7 WAR, RHP Zach Greinke, 1st rd | Royals
2000 | 65.4 WAR, 2B Chase Utley, 1st rd | Phillies
2006 | 64.6 WAR, LHP Clayton Kershaw, 1st rd | Dodgers
2009 | 64.3 WAR, OF Mike Trout, 1st rd | Angels
2004 | 63.4 WAR, RHP Justin Verlander, 1st rd | Tigers
1998 | 62.7 WAR, LHP C.C. Sabathia, 1st rd | Indians
1998 | 59.3 WAR, LHP Mark Buehrle, 38th rd | White Sox
2002 | 58.8 WAR, C Joey Votto, 2nd rd | Reds
2003 | 57.3 WAR, SS Ian Kinsler, 17th rd | Rangers
2002 | 56.4 WAR, LHP Cole Hamels, 1st rd | Phillies
2001 | 55.1 WAR, C Joe Mauer, 1st rd | Twins
2006 | 54.5 WAR, RHP Max Scherzer, 1st rd | D'Backs
2004 | 52.1 WAR, SS Dustin Pedroia, 2nd rd | Red Sox
2006 | 51.9 WAR, 3B Evan Longoria, 1st rd | Rays
2001 | 51.8 WAR, 3B Mark Teixeira, 1st rd | Rangers
2001 | 50.4 WAR, 3B David Wright, 1st rd | Mets
2002 | 47.7 WAR, OF Curtis Granderson, 3rd rd | Tigers
2005 | 46.4 WAR, 3B Ryan Braun, 1st rd | Brewers
2004 | 45.3 WAR, 2B Ben Zobrist, 6th rd | Astros

YEAR-BY-YEAR TOP 5 INDIVIDUAL WAR 1998 - 2017 (TO DATE)

(Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.)

1998
62.7 WAR, LHP C.C. Sabathia, 1st rd | Indians
59.3 WAR, LHP Mark Buehrle, 38th rd | White Sox
44.9 WAR, OF J.D. Drew, 1st rd | Cardinals
44.8 WAR, 3B Matt Holliday, 7th rd | Rockies
25.1 WAR, 1B Carlos Pena, 1st rd | Rangers

1999
100.0 WAR, 3B Albert Pujols, 13th rd | Cardinals
39.6 WAR, RHP Jake Peavy, 15th rd | Padres
39.2 WAR, OF Carl Crawford, 2nd rd | Rays
37.7 WAR, RHP John Lackey, 2nd rd | Angels
35.7 WAR, RHP Josh Beckett, 1st rd | Marlins

2000
65.4 WAR, 2B Chase Utley, 1st rd | Phillies
43.5 WAR, LHP Cliff Lee, 4th rd | Expos
42.2 WAR, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, 1st rd | Marlins
38.9 WAR, C Yadier Molina, 4th rd | Cardinals
38.2 WAR, RHP Adam Wainwright, 1st rd | Braves

2001
55.1 WAR, C Joe Mauer, 1st rd | Twins
51.8 WAR, 3B Mark Teixeira, 1st rd | Rangers
50.4 WAR, 3B David Wright, 1st rd | Mets
35.0 WAR, RHP Dan Harren, 2nd rd | Cardinals
32.6 WAR, 3B Kevin Youkilis, 8th rd | Red Sox

2002
65.7 WAR, RHP Zach Greinke, 1st rd | Royals
58.8 WAR, C Joey Votto, 2nd rd | Reds
56.4 WAR, LHP Cole Hamels, 1st rd | Phillies
47.7 WAR, OF Curtis Granderson, 3rd rd | Tigers
43.8 WAR, LHP Jon Lester, 2nd rd | Red Sox

2003

57.3 WAR, SS Ian Kinsler, 17th rd | Rangers
32.4 WAR, SS Adam Jones, 1st rd | Mariners
32.4 WAR, OF Nick Markakis, 1st rd | Orioles
23.7 WAR, SS Aaron Hill, 1st rd | Blue Jays
23.5 WAR, RHP Jonathan Papelbon, 4th rd | Red Sox

2004
63.4 WAR, RHP Justin Verlander, 1st rd | Tigers
52.1 WAR, SS Dustin Pedroia, 2nd rd | Red Sox
45.3 WAR, 2B Ben Zobrist, 6th rd | Astros
34.4 WAR, RHP Jered Weaver, 1st rd | Angels
34.0 WAR, OF Lorenzo Cain, 17th rd | Brewers

2005
46.4 WAR, 3B Ryan Braun, 1st rd | Brewers
44.1 WAR, SS Troy Tulowitzski, 1st rd | Rockies
42.0 WAR, OF Andrew McCutchen, 1st rd | Pirates
38.0 WAR, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, 1st rd | Nationals
37.5 WAR, OF Brett Gardner, 3rd rd | Yankees

2006
64.6 WAR, LHP Clayton Kershaw, 1st rd | Dodgers
54.5 WAR, RHP Max Scherzer, 1st rd | D'Backs
51.9 WAR, 3B Evan Longoria, 1st rd | Rays
24.1 WAR, 2B Justin Turner, 7th rd | Reds
24.0 WAR, OF Josh Reddick, 17th rd | Red Sox

2007
39.2 WAR, 1B Giancarlo Stanton, 2nd rd | Marlins
38.5 WAR, C Josh Donaldson, 1st rd | Cubs
37.9 WAR, LHP David Price, 1st rd | Rays
34.9 WAR, OF Jason Heyward, 1st rd | Braves
34.2 WAR, LHP Madison Bumgarner, 1st rd | Giants

2008

41.3 WAR, C Buster Posey, 1st rd | Giants
23.3 WAR, SS Brandon Crawford, 4th rd | Giants
20.2 WAR, RHP Craig Kimbrel, 3rd rd | Braves
17.4 WAR, RHP Tanner Roark, 25th rd | Rangers
16.1 WAR, OF Charlie Blackmon, 2nd rd | Rockies

2009
64.3 WAR, OF Mike Trout, 1st rd | Angels
40.1 WAR, 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 8th rd | D'Backs
33.1 WAR, 3B Nolan Arenado, 2nd rd | Rockies
27.9 WAR, 2B Kyle Seager, 3rd rd | Mariners
27.3 WAR, RHP Stephen Strasburg, 1st rd | Nationals

2010
43.1 WAR, LHP Chris Sale, 1st rd | White Sox
34.9 WAR, SS Andrelton Simmons, 2nd rd | Braves
33.8 WAR, SS Manny Machado, 1st rd | Orioles
27.4 WAR, OF Bryce Harper, 1st rd | Nationals
27.2 WAR, RHP Jacob deGrom, 9th rd | Mets

2011

35.2 WAR, SS Mookie Betts, 5th rd | Red Sox
23.9 WAR, SS Francisco Lindor, 1st rd | Indians
21.1 WAR, 3B Anthony Rendon, 1st rd | Nationals
18.7 WAR, OF George Springer, 1st rd | Astros
17.4 WAR, RHP Gerrit Cole, 1st rd | Pirates

2012
18.3 WAR, SS Carlos Correa, 1st rd | Astros
13.7 WAR, SS Corey Seager, 1st rd | Dodgers
12.0 WAR, SS Addison Russell, 1st rd | Athletics
11.7 WAR, LHP Alex Wood, 2nd rd | Braves
11.3 WAR, RHP Kevin Gausman, 1st rd | Orioles

2013
21.6 WAR, 3B Kris Bryant, 1st rd | Cubs
13.2 WAR, OF Aaron Judge, 1st rd | Yankees
8.3 WAR, 1B Cody Bellinger, 4th rd | Dodgers
7.4 WAR, LHP Sean Manaea, 1st rd | Royals
6.6 WAR, RHP Jon Gray, 1st rd | Rockies

2014
15.5 WAR, RHP Aaron Nola, 1st rd | Phillies
11.7 WAR, 3B Matt Chapman, 1st rd | Athletics
11.5 WAR, LHP Kyle Freeland, 1st rd | Rockies
10.4 WAR, SS Trea Turner, 1st rd | Padres
9.1 WAR, OF Michael Conforto, 1st rd | Mets

2015
12.7 WAR, SS Alex Bregman, 1st rd | Astros
7.0 WAR, OF Andrew Benintendi, 1st rd | Red Sox
6.5 WAR, 3B Paul DeJong, 4th rd | Cardinals
3.3 WAR, RHP Walker Buehler, 1st rd | Dodgers
2.9 WAR, SS Dansby Swanson, 1st rd | D'Backs

2016
1.1 WAR, RHP Shane Bieber, 4th rd | Indians
0.7 WAR, RHP Corbin Burnes, 4th rd | Brewers
0.5 WAR, RHP Dakota Hudson, 1st rd | Cardinals
0.5 WAR, LHP Joey Lucchesi, 4th rd | Padres
0.3 WAR, SS Garrett Hampson, 3rd rd | Rockies

2017
0.0 WAR, RHP Kyle Wright, 1st rd | Braves

TOP 5 INDIVIDUAL WAR 1998 - 2017 BY TEAM (TO DATE)

(Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.)

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

ATLANTA BRAVES
2000 | 38.2 WAR, RHP Adam Wainwright, 1st rd
2007 | 34.9 WAR, OF Jason Heyward, 1st rd
2010 | 34.9 WAR, SS Andrelton Simmons, 2nd rd
2007 | 33.1 WAR, 1B Freddie Freeman, 2nd rd
2002 | 31.7 WAR, C Brian McCann, 2nd rd

MIAMI MARLINS
2000 | 42.2 WAR, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, 1st rd
2007 | 39.2 WAR, 1B Giancarlo Stanton, 2nd rd
1999 | 35.7 WAR, RHP Josh Beckett, 1st rd
2010 | 26.2 WAR, 1B Christian Yelich, 1st rd
2002 | 24.3 WAR, RHP Josh Johnson, 4th rd

NEW YORK METS
2001 | 50.4 WAR, 3B David Wright, 1st rd
2010 | 27.2 WAR, RHP Jacob deGrom, 9th rd
2002 | 22.8 WAR, LHP Scott Kazmir, 1st rd
2006 | 18.8 WAR, 3B Daniel Murphy, 13th rd
1999 | 17.2 WAR, OF Angel Pagan, 4th rd

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
2000 | 65.4 WAR, 2B Chase Utley, 1st rd
2002 | 56.4 WAR, LHP Cole Hamels, 1st rd
1999 | 25.3 WAR, OF Marlon Byrd, 10th rd
2003 | 22.8 WAR, OF Michael Bourn, 4th rd
2004 | 20.8 WAR, LHP J.A. Happ, 3rd rd

WASHINGTON NATIONALS/MONTREAL EXPOS*
*2000 | 43.5 WAR, LHP Cliff Lee, 4th rd
2005 | 38.0 WAR, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, 1st rd
*1999 | 31.1 WAR, SS Brandon Phillips, 2nd rd
2010 | 27.4 WAR, OF Bryce Harper, 1st rd
*2000 | 27.3 WAR, OF Grady Sizemore, 3rd rd
2009 | 27.3 WAR, RHP Stephen Strasburg, 1st rd

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

CHICAGO CUBS
2007 | 38.5 WAR, C Josh Donaldson, 1st rd
2013 | 21.6 WAR, 3B Kris Bryant, 1st rd
2000 | 19.7 WAR, LHP Dontrelle Willis, 8th rd
2009 | 17.6 WAR, IF D.J. LeMahieu, 2nd rd
2001 | 16.6 WAR, RHP Mark Prior, 1st rd

CINCINNATI REDS
2002 | 58.8 WAR, C Joey Votto, 2nd rd
2006 | 24.1 WAR, 2B Justin Turner, 7th rd
2007 | 23.8 WAR, 3B Todd Frazier, 1st rd
2005 | 18.9 WAR, OF Jay Bruce, 1st rd
1998 | 17.4 WAR, OF Adam Dunn, 2nd rd

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
2005 | 46.4 WAR, 3B Ryan Braun, 1st rd
2004 | 34.0 WAR, OF Lorenzo Cain, 17th rd
2001 | 28.4 WAR, SS J.J. Hardy, 2nd rd
2002 | 23.6 WAR, 1B Prince Fielder, 1st rd
1999 | 23.3 WAR, RHP Ben Sheets, 1st rd

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2005 | 42.0 WAR, OF Andrew McCutchen, 1st rd
2000 | 35.6 WAR, 3B Jose Bautista, 20th rd
2004 | 20.5 WAR, C Neil Walker, 1st rd
2011 | 17.4 WAR, RHP Gerrit Cole, 1st rd
2000 | 17.3 WAR, RHP Chris Young, 3rd rd

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
1999 | 100.0 WAR, 3B Albert Pujols, 13th rd
1998 | 44.9 WAR, OF J.D. Drew, 1st rd
2000 | 38.9 WAR, C Yadier Molina, 4th rd
2001 | 35.0 WAR, RHP Dan Harren, 2nd rd
1999 | 28.5 WAR, 2B Coco Crisp, 7th rd

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
2006 | 54.5 WAR, RHP Max Scherzer, 1st rd
2009 | 40.1 WAR, 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 8th rd
2005 | 35.0 WAR, SS Justin Upton, 1st rd
2000 | 31.0 WAR, RHP Brandon Webb, 8th rd
2009 | 20.0 WAR, OF A.J. Pollock, 1st rd

COLORADO ROCKIES
1998 | 44.8 WAR, 3B Matt Holliday, 7th rd
2005 | 44.1 WAR, SS Troy Tulowitzski, 1st rd
2009 | 33.1 WAR, 3B Nolan Arenado, 2nd rd
2004 | 17.9 WAR, OF Dexter Fowler, 14th rd
1999 | 17.1 WAR, OF Juan Pierre, 13th rd

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
2006 | 64.6 WAR, LHP Clayton Kershaw, 1st rd
2002 | 37.1 WAR, 2B Russell Martin, 17th rd
1999 | 31.6 WAR, OF Shane Victorino, 6th rd
2003 | 22.2 WAR, OF Matt Kemp, 6th rd
2003 | 17.3 WAR, RHP Chad Billingsley, 1st rd

SAN DIEGO PADRES
1999 | 39.6 WAR, RHP Jake Peavy, 15th rd
2007 | 33.6 WAR, RHP Corey Kluber, 4th rd
2005 | 26.1 WAR, 3B Chase Headley, 2nd rd
2001 | 18.3 WAR, SS Jason Bartlett, 13th rd
2006 | 15.7 WAR, 3B David Freese, 9th rd

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
2008 | 41.3 WAR, C Buster Posey, 1st rd
2007 | 34.2 WAR, LHP Madison Bumgarner, 1st rd
2002 | 29.1 WAR, RHP Matt Cain, 1st rd
2008 | 23.3 WAR, SS Brandon Crawford, 4th rd
2009 | 22.7 WAR, 1B Brandon Belt, 5th rd

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
2010 | 33.8 WAR, SS Manny Machado, 1st rd
2003 | 32.4 WAR, OF Nick Markakis, 1st rd
1999 | 30.4 WAR, SS Brian Roberts, 1st rd
2007 | 24.5 WAR, RHP Jake Arrieta, 5th rd
2007 | 18.0 WAR, C Matt Wieters, 1st rd

BOSTON RED SOX
2004 | 52.1 WAR, SS Dustin Pedroia, 2nd rd
2002 | 43.8 WAR, LHP Jon Lester, 2nd rd
2011 | 35.2 WAR, SS Mookie Betts, 5th rd
2001 | 32.6 WAR, 3B Kevin Youkilis, 8th rd
2005 | 31.1 WAR, OF Jacoby Ellsbury, 1st rd

NEW YORK YANKEES
2005 | 37.5 WAR, OF Brett Gardner, 3rd rd
2005 | 22.1, OF Austin Jackson, 8th rd
2006 | 16.0 WAR, RHP David Robertson, 17th rd
2006 | 15.4 WAR, RHP Ian Kennedy, 1st rd
2003 | 13.7 WAR, RHP Tyler Clippard, 9th rd

TAMPA BAY RAYS
2006 | 51.9 WAR, 3B Evan Longoria, 1st rd
1999 | 39.2 WAR, OF Carl Crawford, 2nd rd
2007 | 37.9 WAR, LHP David Price, 1st rd
2000 | 30.6 WAR, RHP James Shields, 16th rd
1999 | 28.3 WAR, OF Josh Hamilton, 1st rd

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
1999 | 27.4 WAR, 3B Alex Rios, 1st rd
2003 | 23.7 WAR, SS Aaron Hill, 1st rd
2011 | 14.3 WAR, OF Kevin Pillar, 32nd rd
2003 | 13.5 WAR, RHP Shaun Marcum, 3rd rd
2010 | 13.2 WAR, RHP Noah Syndergaard, 1st rd

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
1998 | 59.3 WAR, LHP Mark Buehrle, 38th rd
2010 | 43.1 WAR, LHP Chris Sale, 1st rd
2004 | 27.5 WAR, LHP Gio Gonzalez, 1st rd
1998 | 20.9 WAR, OF Aaron Rowand, 1st rd
2001 | 16.1 WAR, OF Chris Young, 16th rd

CLEVELAND INDIANS
1998 | 62.7 WAR, LHP C.C. Sabathia, 1st rd
2011 | 23.9 WAR, SS Francisco Lindor, 1st rd
2009 | 21.8 WAR, OF Jason Kipnis, 2nd rd
2002 | 17.9 WAR, RHP Jeremy Guthrie, 1st rd
2006 | 12.6 WAR, RHP Chris Archer, 5th rd

DETROIT TIGERS
2004 | 63.4 WAR, RHP Justin Verlander, 1st rd
2002 | 47.7 WAR, OF Curtis Granderson, 3rd rd
1998 | 19.2 WAR, C Brandon Inge, 2nd rd
2007 | 18.8 WAR, RHP Rick Porcello, 1st rd
1998 | 15.2 WAR, RHP Jeff Weaver, 1st rd

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
2002 | 65.7 WAR, RHP Zach Greinke, 1st rd
2005 | 35.2 WAR, 3B Alex Gordon, 1st rd
1999 | 33.6 WAR, SS Mark Ellis, 9th rd
2000 | 23.2 WAR, OF David DeJesus, 4th rd
2008 | 15.6 WAR, 1B Eric Hosmer, 1st rd

MINNESOTA TWINS
2001 | 55.1 WAR, C Joe Mauer, 1st rd
1999 | 27.2 WAR, C Justin Morneau, 3rd rd
2002 | 26.3 WAR, OF Denard Span, 1st rd
2009 | 23.9 WAR, SS Brian Dozier, 8th rd
2003 | 15.6 WAR, RHP Scott Baker, 2nd rd

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

HOUSTON ASTROS
2004 | 45.3 WAR, 2B Ben Zobrist, 6th rd
2004 | 29.7 WAR, OF Hunter Pence, 2nd rd
2009 | 20.4 WAR, OF J.D. Martinez, 20th rd
2011 | 18.7 WAR, OF George Springer, 1st rd
2012 | 18.3 WAR, SS Carlos Correa, 1st rd

LOS ANGELES ANGELS
2009 | 64.3 WAR, OF Mike Trout, 1st rd
1999 | 37.7 WAR, RHP John Lackey, 2nd rd
2004 | 34.4 WAR, RHP Jered Weaver, 1st rd
2002 | 30.3 WAR, 2B Howie Kendrick, 10th rd
2000 | 27.4 WAR, C Mike Napoli, 17th rd

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
1999 | 32.0 WAR, LHP Barry Zito, 1st rd
2002 | 22.0 WAR, 1B Nick Swisher, 1st rd
2003 | 21.2 WAR, OF Andre Ethier, 2nd rd
1998 | 20.1 WAR, LHP Mark Mulder, 1st rd
2004 | 19.9 WAR, C Kurt Suzuki, 2nd rd

SEATTLE MARINERS
2003 | 32.4 WAR, SS Adam Jones, 1st rd
2009 | 27.9 WAR, 2B Kyle Seager, 3rd rd
2006 | 19.7 WAR, RHP Doug Fister, 7th rd
1998 | 13.4 WAR, LHP Matt Thornton, 1st rd
1999 | 13.1 WAR, RHP J. J. Putz, 6th rd

TEXAS RANGERS
2003 | 57.3 WAR, SS Ian Kinsler, 17th rd
2001 | 51.8 WAR, 3B Mark Teixeira, 1st rd
2000 | 32.2 WAR, 3B Edwin Encarnacion, 9th rd
1998 | 25.1 WAR, 1B Carlos Pena, 1st rd
2003 | 20.2 WAR, LHP John Danks, 1st rd

Obviously, not all of these players have earned all of that WAR for the team that drafted them. In the team-by-team posts (linked below), I touch on this somewhat by showing how much the signing team has benefited from the success of the top player and top draft class signed by them. While some teams received a lot of bang for their buck from their top players (Pujols for the Cardinals, Verlander for the Tigers, Kershaw for the Dodgers, Trout for the Angels, Wright for the Mets, Votto for the Reds, Braun for the Brewers, McCutchen for the Pirates, Pedroia for the Red Sox, Posey for the Giants, Longoria for the Rays, Buehrle for the White Sox, Mauer for the Twins and others), there were other teams whose top player never played for them at the major league level (Zobrist/Astros, Wainwright/Braves, Gonzalez/Marlins, Lee/Expos, Donaldson/Cubs) or played for that team for only a limited time before being traded away (Scherzer/Diamondbacks, Jones/Mariners).

Others fall somewhere in between. Sabathia's WAR for the Indians and the Yankees is roughly equivalent to date with the Yankees taking a slight edge. Matt Holliday played a few seasons for the Rockies before being traded, and the return value of that trade was comparable to Holliday's subsequent success for other teams. Zach Greinke also provided good value for the Royals both pre-trade and post-trade through the value of the acquired players.

You can refer to the links below to see how some of the top draft classes have played out over time, including trade value received (or not) when some of those players were traded away. Some of these trades paid off, some were very lopsided in retrospect and some have yet to play out.

I haven't ranked these draft classes because I don't want to insert my own bias into the equation, but I think you can see which teams have done well over the years, which teams have drafted poorly and which teams are on the rise (or on the decline) in terms of their draft results.

Another post summarizing the early results of the 2018 draft class will be coming soon.

PREVIOUS TEAM-BY-TEAM POSTS COVERING THE 1998 - 2018 DRAFTS