Astros Minor League Depth - Right-Handed Starters, Part 1

[4/13/14 UPDATE: Alex Gillingham is no longer with the organization.]

As we continue to look at the depth in the Astros minor league system, let's move to right-handed starting pitchers. Due to the sheer number of pitchers involved, I will be breaking this up into two posts. This one will address those who finished their seasons at Advanced A Lancaster or above. I did not include any pitchers who made their major league debuts in 2013, such as Jarred Cosart and David Martinez. I did include Matt Heidenreich because I still consider him to be a starter despite his extensive use out of the bullpen in 2013.




I have ranked the pitchers by WHIP, from low to high. Topping the list is 2010 eighth round draft pick Jake Buchanan. The minor league pitcher of the year in 2011, Buchanan was unable to duplicate that success in 2012. Fast forward to 2013 and Buchanan was extremely effective once again as he split his time between Corpus Christi and Oklahoma City. He had one of the highest groundball rates out of this group and had the lowest BB/9 rate, a very stingy 1.25 walks per nine innings. His ERA was also the lowest out of the group.

Asher Wojciechowski was another real success story from the 2013 season. Wojo picked right up where he left off in Corpus Christi in 2012 after being acquired in the big July 2012 10-player trade with the Blue Jays. The former first round 2010 draft pick started the season back in Corpus and dominated at the level, leading to his promotion in early May to AAA Oklahoma City. Hitters only managed a .223 batting average against him, the best mark for this group. Wojo also had the lowest groundball rate of the group with a 0.66 GO/AO rate, a rate that was lower than he has had in past seasons.

Vincent Velasquez spent the vast majority of his season at Quad Cities, landing in Lancaster for his final three starts. Velasquez, a second round 2010 draft pick, appears to be fully back from the Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the 2011 season. He pitched 124+ innings in 2013. Velasquez was a close second to Wojo in batting average against, with hitters managing only .225 against him and he leads this group in SO/9, getting 10.25 strikeouts per nine innings.

Vincent Velasquez - April 2013

Photo by Jayne Hansen

Bobby Doran, yet another 2010 draft pick (fourth round), seems to always fly under the radar. He doesn't have the flashiest stuff out of the group, but he is a big (6'6" 235#), healthy innings-eater who rarely has a really bad outing and manages to keep his team in the game. His 11-2 record is reflective of that.

The last of this group to have been drafted in 2010 is Mike Foltynewicz, another first rounder. Folty started the season in Lancaster, but was promoted to AA Corpus Christi in early May. He barely trailed Wojo and Velasquez in terms of batting average against with hitters putting up a .226 mark against him and his strikeout rate was rather healthy as he managed to strike out 8.6 batters per nine innings. The one area upon which Folty will need to improve is his walk rate. He had the highest walk rate of the group at 4.6 per nine innings. But at only 22 in October, he has plenty of time to make those adjustments.

The 2011 draft class is represented in this group by Kyle Smith, Nick Tropeano and Alex Gillingham. Smith, obtained from the Royals in the Justin Maxwell trade, excelled in the Advanced A Carolina League before the trade and had mixed results in Advanced A Lancaster in five appearances afterwards. Smith struggled at times, but one of his appearances just happened to be a complete game two-hit shutout. Tropeano had a solid, albeit unremarkable season, with uneven results at times as he tried to adjust to the Texas League. Tropeano and Smith both managed more than eight strike outs per nine innings over the season. Gillingham, who came from the Rockies in the Wilton Lopez trade in December 2012 gets an incomplete. After only three appearances, he was shelved for the season. I had looked forward to seeing what he could do in Lancaster with his historically high groundball rate.

Three 2012 draft picks made it to Advanced A in only their second year pitching professionally -- Brady Rodgers, Aaron West and Mike Hauschild. Rodgers and West spent the full season at Lancaster and put up numbers that are fairly typical for the hitter-friendly venue, while Hauschild was promoted there from Quad Cities in mid-July and (aside from one very tough outing) adjusted well to the level. Hauschild and Rodgers have two of the highest groundball rates from this group and West has one of the lowest. West and Rodgers both had low walk rates and West, with his 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, had one of the best strikeout to walk ratios in the Astros system.

Brady Rodgers - September 2013

Photo by Jayne Hansen

R.J. Alaniz, a non-drafted free agent who signed in 2009, was young for the AA level, having only turned 22 in June and his youth showed at times. For whatever reason, Alaniz fared better as a reliever than as a starter out of the tandem, putting up a 3.51 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP in that role. Matt Heidenreich, obtained in the July 2012 White Sox trade for Brett Myers, struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness in 2013, but a healthy Heidenreich excelled in the Arizona Fall League where he was 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and a 1.095 WHIP. Ross Seaton, drafted in 2008, did not fare well in Oklahoma City in 2013 and ended up back at AA Corpus Christi for nine games before being recalled to Oklahoma City to end the season. He had more success in his final three appearances in OKC than in his earlier stint. Hopefully, he can build on those later outings when he presumably starts the 2014 season back in Oklahoma City.

Astros Minor League Depth - RH Relievers Pt. 2

As Spring Training approaches, I've been looking at the Astros minor league depth, position by position. Because of the sheer number of pitchers in the organization, I needed to break them down into groups. Today, we look at the right-handed relief pitchers who had the best seasons pitching at either A level or in the rookie league for the organization.

The embedded chart shows the pitchers ranged from low to high in terms of WHIP. I have noted their current age and the last level at which they played. I limited inclusion on the list to those who pitched a minimum of 25 innings.

As I noted before, Chia-Jen Lo will likely start the season at AA and move up quickly if he continues to show that his comeback from TJ surgery is complete. In addition, Carlos Quevedo, who started the season at Lexington, and Andrew Robinson, who dominated most of the season after a mostly dreadful April, are both good candidates for promotion.

Cameron Lamb is new to the organization after being selected in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft from the Giants organization. He has the lowest strikeout rate of the group, but one of the highest groundball out rates.

Mike Hauschild has Lamb beat, though, in terms of his groundball rate with an incredible 5.20 GO/AO ratio to go with a very impressive 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Jordan Jankowski's 14.8 strikeouts per nine is the best among right-handed relievers in the Astros minor league system. Hauschild, Jankowski, Travis Ballew, Michael Dimock and Erick Gonzalez (community college) were all drafted in 2012 out of college and were expected to do well at the lower levels. They will now need to prove that they can do so at the higher levels.

Murilo Gouvea was a workhouse for Lexington, making 50 appearances out of the bullpen. Gouvea also played for Team Brazil in the WBC Qualifiers in November and was instrumental in Brazil's upset of the host Panamanian team.

I had to draw the line somewhere on this list, but there are a few other pitchers I will be keeping my eye on in 2013. John Neely had a somewhat uneven season, but finished very strongly. Another pitcher who intrigues me is Christian Garcia due to reports that his fastball sits in the low 90's and tops out in the mid-90's. He was frequently used in longer relief outings with mixed results. Both Neely and Garcia were lower round draft picks in 2012 and will need to set themselves apart in Spring Training. Jamaine Cotton was outstanding early in his season at Tri-City, but faltered down the stretch.

The most noteworthy candidate to follow, though, will be Jack Armstrong, the Astros 2011 third round pick, as he comes back from TJ surgery.

The fact of life in the minor leagues is that a right-handed relief pitcher, particularly at the lower levels, is at the bottom of the food chain. They have the toughest time of all in establishing themselves and are given the slimmest chance to re-establish themselves if they struggle. Each and every one of them will have to continue to prove themselves time after time after time, level after level after level. This post really just reflects a moment in time as we look at the relief corps because predicting the road ahead for any of these pitchers would be difficult at best.

Monday: Starting RHP for Full Season Clubs
Tuesday: Starting RHP for Short Season Clubs
Wednesday: RH Relievers at AA and AAA

Astros Minor League Depth - RH Relievers Pt. 1

As Spring Training approaches, I've been looking at the Astros minor league depth, position by position. Because of the sheer number of pitchers in the organization, I really needed to break them down into groups. Today, we're doing something a little different because I was a bit shocked when I realized this and I wanted to share.

The embedded chart shows ALL of the right-handed relief pitchers in the organization who finished their seasons at AA or AAA who remain in the Astros organization. ALL OF THEM PLUS TWO. Chuckie Fick (who apparently now goes by C.J.) and Jose Valdez actually ended their seasons in Houston, but neither is on the 40-man roster currently so I'm including them on this list.  Hector Ambriz was also used in relief at AAA in 2012, but remains on the 40-man roster after finishing his season in Houston so I'm not including him.

Where did everyone go, you ask? Arcenio Leon and Brian Sanches were lost to free agency and five others who pitched in relief at those levels in 2012 are unsigned free agents - Erick Abreu, Henry Villar, Adalberto Flores, Sergio Perez and Enerio Del Rosario.

I suppose that bodes well for Carlos Quevedo and Andrew Robinson from Lancaster. And Chia-Jen Lo will probably start the season at AA with the intent of moving him quickly, but it's still pretty slim on available, experienced arms.

Which brings me back to something I noted earlier this week about how crowded AA and AAA are likely to get in the way of starting pitchers. I really think that we will see some of our starters converted to the bullpen.  I can see David Martinez and Jose Cisnero converted to relievers (although I know of no plans to do so) and the possibility of Jarred Cosart as a closer has been bandied about for the last couple of years. And you'll note that I included Jake Buchanan as a relief pitcher as he was used out of the bullpen in the latter part of the season, despite being used exclusively in a starting role previously.

With that said, who exactly are the few, the proud, the brave? Jason Stoffel had a terrific season and led the Astros organization in saves with 27, and he managed to maintain a sub-1.00 WHIP over his 55 appearances. Jose Valdez numbers are inflated by the struggles he encountered mid-season before being placed on the DL. He was second in saves in 2012. [Note on Valdez: Mike at Farmstros astutely observed that Valdez is no longer shown as a non-roster invitee and has an option in his contract that may land him in Japan. If that happens, the depth of experienced relievers at AA and AAA dwindles even further.]

Josh Zeid has good stuff, but in my opinion he lacks confidence. He had a Jekyll and Hyde season and it was often difficult to know which Zeid would be showing up. His last few regular season appearances in August and September were excellent, though. Zeid is another pitcher who I think will benefit from working with Roger Clemens on his mental approach.

Mark Hamburger started the season with the Rangers, then was claimed off waivers by the Padres and then finally claimed by Houston. He struggled with the Rangers and Padres, but pitched closer to his 2011 AAA form in his 17 appearances at Oklahoma City.

Monday: Starting RHP for Full Season Clubs
Tuesday: Starting RHP for Short Season Clubs
Coming Thursday: RH Relievers - A and below

Astros Minor League Depth - Starting RHP Pt. 2

As Spring Training approaches, I've been looking at the Astros minor league depth, position by position. Because of the sheer number of pitchers in the organization, I really needed to break them down into groups. Today, we look at the right-handed starting pitchers in the organization who had the best seasons in 2012 playing on short season clubs.

Lance McCullers - August 2012

Photo by Jayne Hansen

The embedded chart shows the pitchers ranged from low to high in terms of WHIP. I have noted their current age and the last level at which they played.

2012 college draft picks Aaron West, Daniel Minor and Brady Rodgers had simply outstanding first seasons in the organization, as did NDFA Lance Day.

Astros supplemental first rounder, Lance McCullers, was kept on a strict pitch count, but was nonetheless impressive in his limited time. The Blue Jays supplemental first rounder from 2011, Kevin Comer, came to the organization very late in the season as the PTBNL in the 10-player July trade. Adrian Houser, the Astros second rounder from 2011 showed definite improvement over his freshman season.

Samil de los Santos in his second season and Elieser Hernandez in his first both had good seasons for the DSL Astros. Agapito Barrios and Edison Frias both made the transition from the DSL in their first season to the GCL in their second quite nicely, although Barrios needs to work on his control (8 hit batters and 11 wild pitches for the short season).

Both Raul Rivera and Vincent Velasquez missed the 2011 season completely due to injury which makes their 2012 results that much more impressive.

Michael Feliz' ERA and WHIP for the GCL Astros was practically microscopic before his promotion to Greeneville. Feliz, who only turned 19 in September, will likely start the season back at Greeneville.

Juri Perez had fantastic numbers at Tri-City, and made five appearances (three starts) for Lexington. I look for him to start the season with Quad Cities.

There are two other pitchers that I will be keeping an eye on in 2013 that were with the Greeneville squad in 2012. Francis Ramirez had a fairly average season, but his strikeout rate was worthy of notice. Unfortunately, his walk rate caught my notice too, but not the good kind of notice. The other is Joe Musgrove, another 2011 first round supplemental pick by the Blue Jays who came to the Astros organization in the July trade. Musgrove was limited to only 17 innings coming off an injury in 2012. I assume that Musgrove will still be groomed to be a starter, at least for now, but that isn't necessarily a given.

I'm not making many predictions as to where these players will be playing in 2013, but most of those who played at Tri-City will probably go to full season A at Quad Cities. Most of the others will likely play at some level of short season ball after spending time in extended spring training.

Monday: Starting RHP in Full Season Clubs
Coming on Wednesday: Right-Handed Relief Pitchers at AA and AAA

Astros Minor League Depth - Starting RHP Pt. 1

As Spring Training approaches, I've been looking at the Astros minor league depth, position by position. Because of the sheer number of pitchers in the organization, I really needed to break them down into groups. Today, we look at the right-handed starting pitchers in the organization who had the best seasons in 2012 and played on full season clubs.

Ross Seaton - June 2012

Photo by Jayne Hansen

The embedded chart shows the pitchers ranged from low to high in terms of WHIP. I have noted their current age and the last level at which they played. I am including Edgar Gonzalez as he was taken off of the 40-man roster and will likely start the season with AAA. His stats are a combination of his minor league and Mexican League numbers.

Asher Wojciechowski, obtained in the Blue Jays 10-player trade in July, and Matt Heidenreich, obtained in the Brett Myers trade, both started their seasons with the Hi-A affiliate of their respective organizations. Heidenreich had already been promoted to AA at the time of his trade, but Wojo was only promoted when he came into the Houston organization. Their stats on the above chart include their time at the lower level, but they both had great success in their somewhat limited time at AA Corpus Christi. Look for both to start the season at AA.

Ross Seaton had the break-through season that I had been waiting for, and he generally got stronger as the season progressed. Seeing him pitch the first week of June and again during the first week of September was like seeing two different pitchers. I would like to see him start the season at AAA and, frankly, I believe that will be the case.

Bobby Doran started the season at Hi-A Lancaster, but pitched 10 starts at AA Corpus where he definitely held his own. He is an innings-eater who pitches to contact. He should start the season at AA where he can refine his command and build on his 2012 success.

Jarred Cosart and Jose Cisnero both had great seasons at Corpus leading to their September promotions to AAA. Cosart adapted better than Cisnero to the level, but I think that both need more time at AAA before making their major league debuts. Although he came a long way in 2012, Cosart still needs to fine-tune his command and his mental approach to the game. I think working with Roger Clemens will help him with both immensely. Cisnero's walk rate ticked up and his strikeout rate ticked down at AAA, but I think that will correct itself given more time and experience at the level.

At the lower levels, you have David Martinez, whose numbers may not look all that impressive until you consider that he is the only one on this list who pitched the entire season in the very tough environs of the California League. Nick Tropeano started the season at Lexington, but spent his second half at Lancaster as well. His ERA and WHIP were slightly higher at the Hangar, but he more than held his own after the promotion. I believe Tropeano will start the season at AA. It will be difficult for Martinez to get a promotion to start the season, though, simply because the upper levels are starting to get crowded with talent. However, I can see him being one of the first to be promoted if someone struggles or is injured. Alternatively, he may be moved to the bullpen.

Mike Foltynewicz, of course, dominated the Sally League in many categories and won the Astros Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award. Personally, I would like to see him skip Lancaster and go straight to Corpus Christi, but the Astros are going to have to do some juggling to find room for all of the pitchers that need to see action at AA and AAA. Finally, Chris Devenski didn't see as much time as a starter as these other pitchers, having pitched out of the bullpen for a substantial part of the season before he came over in the Myers trade. That is the only reason I can see him starting the season at Quad Cities instead of Lancaster, but I think he will be promoted quickly if he can sustain the success he showed after the trade. Much may depend on his Spring Training performance.

There are many more pitchers to keep an eye on in 2013, including Kyle Weiland and Paul Clemens. Weiland is still rehabbing and trying to get his strength back from his surgery last spring. Clemens struggled at AAA most of the season, but was successful in his final seven starts back at AA Corpus. He was too highly regarded a prospect coming in to the 2012 season to simply give up on him. He is another pitcher who I think would benefit from working with Clemens.

Another couple of pitchers that I will be watching closely are Tyson Perez and R.J. Alaniz. Perez got promoted in 2012 from extended Spring Training directly to Lancaster after making only 13 starts in rookie league Greeneville in his first season in 2011. His season numbers weren't great, but he got stronger as the season progressed and he was extremely good in the post-season. And R.J. Alaniz was having a solid season before his year ended early due to injury. I believe that both will repeat at Lancaster.

Coming Tuesday: Right-handed starters in short season leagues

WTH 25-Man Roster - RHP Starter #1

First up, let's pick a RHP to start for us. Selecting one of these pitchers does not mean that we can't pick another pitcher from the same group later, nor does it necessarily mean that we consider that player to be WTH's ace of the staff. It's just a place to start.

I picked only right-handers used primarily as starting pitchers who had a minimum of 120 IP for full-season teams and a minimum of 50 IP for short-season teams. Andrew Robinson and Erick Abreu were included as they were used solely to start in the latter part of the season, but Jonnathan Aristil was not included because he was moved to the bullpen in the latter part of the season.

My personal favorite of the more established players is Jake Buchanan. Out of the rookie class, Nick Tropeano is my guy. Folty has a ways to go but he won't even be 20 until October and he has a great deal of upside. And I am also extremely intrigued by Jamaine Cotton and look forward to seeing what he will do next season. With that said, look over the numbers, pick your favorite and vote in the poll to help determine the first pitcher on the WTH 25-Man Roster.

RHP Starters - GO/AO

Here is the lowdown on the groundball/flyball ratio for all RHP in the Astros minor-league system who have been used primarily as starters this season. Stats are for current team only through 8/24 and are ranked from highest groundball ratio to lowest.