My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 939 | Signed 568 | Pitchers Signed 306 | Position Players Signed 262
Total WAR 376
Total Players to MLB 85
Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.
*1998 | 2 to MLB | WAR 11.5 | High WAR 11.0, OF Brad Wilkerson, 1st rd
*1999 | 5 to MLB | WAR 28.9 | High WAR 31.1, SS Brandon Phillips, 2nd rd
*2000 | 7 to MLB | WAR 95.8 | High WAR 43.5, LHP Cliff Lee, 4th rd
*2001 | 4 to MLB | WAR (0.4) | High WAR 0.9, LHP Mike Hinckley, 3rd rd
*2002 | 3 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 0.8, RHP Darrell Rasner, 2nd rd
*2003 | 7 to MLB | WAR 6.5 | High WAR 7.3, RHP Chad Cordero, 1st rd
*2004 | 5 to MLB | WAR 17.4 | High WAR 16.4, SS Ian Desmond, 3rd rd
2005 | 6 to MLB | WAR 70.5 | High WAR 38.0, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, 1st rd
2006 | 3 to MLB | WAR 3.1 | High WAR 4.2, RHP Brad Peacock, 41st rd
2007 | 7 to MLB | WAR 36.6 | High WAR 21.8, RHP Jordan Zimmerman, 2nd rd
2008 | 6 to MLB | WAR 6.8 | High WAR 7.6, SS Danny Espinosa, 3rd rd
2009 | 7 to MLB | WAR 37.4 | High WAR 27.3, RHP Stephen Strasburg, 1st rd
2010 | 7 to MLB | WAR 37.5 | High WAR 27.4, OF Bryce Harper, 1st rd
2011 | 7 to MLB | WAR 23.6 | High WAR 21.1, 3B Anthony Rendon, 1st rd
2012 | 3 to MLB | WAR (0.2) | High WAR 0.5, C Spencer Kieboom, 5th rd
2013 | 2 to MLB | WAR 1.5 | High WAR 1.6, RHP Nick Pivetta, 4th rd
2014 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.3) | High WAR 0.0, RHP Austen Williams, 6th rd
2015 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.4) | High WAR 0.2, RHP Koda Glover, 8th rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
*1998-2004 = Montreal Expos
The highest WAR to date is that of LHP Cliff Lee (2000, 4th round, 43.5 WAR). The high total WAR for the Expos from this time period is also from 2000 and includes top performers OF Grady Sizemore (27.3 WAR, 3rd round) and OF Jason Bay (24.6 WAR, 22nd round) in addition to Lee. All of these players were drafted by the Expos in the pre-Nationals days and none of them played for either the Expos or the Nationals at the MLB level. Lee and Sizemore were traded to Cleveland in June 2002 (along with 2B Brandon Phillips and 1B Lee Stevens) for RHP Bartolo Colon and RHP Tim Drew. Colon and Drew provided Montreal with a total 1.6 WAR (less when you consider what the Expos received in return when they traded away Colon). Lee went on to play for Cleveland for eight seasons, earning the American League Cy Young award in 2008. Three-time All-Star Sizemore also played eight seasons for Cleveland, earning two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Yeah, that was a really bad trade. Bay was traded to the Mets for one very forgettable season from SS Lou Collier.
The first draft class by the Nationals in 2005 has the highest total WAR (70.5) as well as the top individual WAR (3B/1B Ryan Zimmerman, 38.0 WAR, 1st round) to date. Zimmerman has spent his entire career (10 seasons) with the Nationals, making two All-Star appearances and earning two Silver Sluggers and one Gold Glove. He was also a close second place in Rookie of the Year voting in 2006, losing to SS Hanley Ramirez by only four points. Other MLB-ers from the 2005 class include RHP Marco Estrada (13.1 WAR, 6th round); RHP Craig Stammen (7.5 WAR, 12th round); LHP John Lannen (6.3 WAR, 11th round); LHP Ryan Buchter (3.0 WAR, 33rd round); and OF Justin Maxwell (2.6 WAR, 4th round). All of those players played multiple seasons for Washington with the exception of Buchter.
2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 29 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 13 Position Players
30 College | 27 Signed | 15 Pitchers | 12 Position Players
3 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
7 HS/NS | 1 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 0 Position Players
Notable: The Nationals failed to sign three of their top 20 picks, all college right-handers (Graham Lawson, 12th round; Ridge Chapman, 17th round; Zach Linginfelter, 19th round).
PITCHERS
Of the 16 pitchers signed (11 RHP, 5 LHP), all but one (1st round HS RHP Mason Denaburg) logged at least some playing time. Two of these pitchers received playing time above the Short Season A* level, both at Full Season A. Four of these pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Nationals, including two Top 10 prospects in Denaburg and Cate.
Top Prospects
🔟 RHP Mason Denaburg, 1st round, Merritt Island HS (FL), DNP
🔟 LHP Tim Cate, 2nd round, University of Connecticut, A
52 IP | 13 G / 12 GS | 5.02 ERA | 1.404 WHIP | 16 BB : 45 K
RHP Reid Schaller, 3rd round, Vanderbilt, SSA
40.2 IP | 12 G / 12 GS | 4.65 ERA | 1.254 WHIP | 12 BB : 32 K
RHP Jake Irvin, 4th round, University of Oklahoma, SSA
20.2 IP | 11 G / 7 GS | 1.74 ERA | 1.113 WHIP | 7 BB : 15 K
🔟 Top 10 Prospect
LHP Carson Teel, 16th round, Oklahoma State University, SSA
37.2 IP | 14 G / 6 GS | 2.39 ERA | 1.115 WHIP | 7 BB : 30 K
In total, the Nationals 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.43 ERA and a 1.318 WHIP over 374 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 13 position players signed (1B, 2 2B, 2 3B, SS, 5 OF, 2 C) logged at least some playing time in 2018. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, to Full Season A. One of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Nationals (in the Top 10).
Top Prospects
🔟 OF Gage Canning (L/R), 5th round, Arizona State University, A
45 G | .253/.319/.470/.789 | 16 BB : 54 K | 12 2B / 3 3B / 6 HR
🔟 Top 10 Prospect
Noteworthy Debut
OF Pablo O'Connor (R/R), 27th round, Azusa Pacific University, SSA
62 G | .300/.338/.457/.796 | 14 BB : 53 K | 18 2B / 3 3B / 5 HR
In total, the Washington 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .274/.355/.382/.736 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.
GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.
Previously:
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Coming Next:
NL East 2018 Draft Summary
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