Wednesday, January 16, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Milwaukee Brewers

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 938 | Signed 616 | Pitchers Signed 332 | Position Players Signed 284
Total WAR 356
Total Players to MLB 84

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 2 to MLB | WAR 9.5 | High WAR 9.7, SS Bill Hall, 6th rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 23.4 | High WAR 23.3, RHP Ben Sheets, 1st rd
2000 | 2 to MLB | WAR 14.6 | High WAR 14.4, OF Corey Hart, 11th rd
2001 | 6 to MLB | WAR 26.4 | High WAR 28.4, SS J.J. Hardy, 2nd rd
2002 | 6 to MLB | WAR 32.0 | High WAR 23.6, 1B Prince Fielder, 1st rd
2003 | 6 to MLB | WAR 18.1 | High WAR 11.8, 2B Rickie Weeks, 1st rd
2004 | 5 to MLB | WAR 57.3 | High WAR 34.0, OF Lorenzo Cain, 17th rd
2005 | 6 to MLB | WAR 68.8 | High WAR 46.4, 3B Ryan Braun, 1st rd
2006 | 3 to MLB | WAR 7.2 | High WAR 7.8, RHP Jeremy Jeffress, 1st rd
2007 | 7 to MLB | WAR 19.8 | High WAR 19.1, C Jonathan Lucroy, 3rd rd
2008 | 6 to MLB | WAR 24.2 | High WAR 15.1, 3B Brett Lawrie, 1st rd
2009 | 8 to MLB | WAR 32.5 | High WAR 12.1, OF Khris Davis, 7th rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 7.4 | High WAR 4.1, RHP Jimmy Nelson, 2nd rd
2011 | 7 to MLB | WAR 1.3 | High WAR 1.1, RHP Taylor Jungman, 1st rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.1 | High WAR 9.2, OF Mitch Haniger, 1st rd
2013 | 3 to MLB | WAR (0.2) | High WAR 0.1, 1B Garrett Cooper, 6th rd
2014 | 1 to MLB | WAR 1.0 | High WAR 1.0, RHP Brandon Woodruff, 11th rd
2015 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR (0.1), RHP Eric Hanhold, 6th rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.7 | High WAR 0.7, RHP Corbin Burnes, 4th rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of OF Ryan Braun (2005, 1st round, 46.4 WAR) and the high total WAR is also from 2005. Braun has spent his entire career with the Brewers (12 seasons to date), appearing in six All-Star games and earning five Silver Sluggers, the National League Rookie of the Year in 2007 and the National League MVP in 2011. The only other big impact player signed in the Brewers 2005 Draft class is OF Michael Brantley (7th round, 22.7 WAR). Brantley was traded to Cleveland (along with three other players) as the PTBNL in a July 2008 deal that sent LHP C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers. Sabathia was a rental player who ultimately was not able to help the Brewers in their postseason efforts (the Brewers lost the NLDS to the Phillies 3-1). Since the other players in that trade had minimal or no impact in the majors, that trade can be seen as a very good half season of pitching for the Brewers up against all or parts of 10 seasons, three All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger for Cleveland. If the Brewers had gone deep into the postseason in 2008, they would likely have taken that deal every time ... but they didn't. Brantley signed with the Astros as a free agent in December 2018.

2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 22 Signed | 13 Pitchers | 9 Position Players
11 College | 9 Signed | 7 Pitchers | 2 Position Players
7 JC/CC | 3 Signed | 2 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
22 HS/NS | 10 Signed | 4 Pitchers | 6 Position Players

Notable: The Brewers received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round B) and forfeited one pick (third round) for signing free agent OF Lorenzo Cain. They signed their top 10 picks, but only signed 5 of their next 10. The highest unsigned pick was 11th round college RHP Davis Daniel.

PITCHERS
Of the 13 pitchers signed (9 RHP, 4 LHP), all but one (college right-hander Drew Rasmussen, 6th round) logged at least some playing time. Four players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (all to Full Season A) and two of them debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Brewers.

Top Prospects

LHP Aaron Ashby, 4th round, Crowder College (CC), A
57.2 IP | 13 G / 10 GS | 3.59 ERA | 1.301 WHIP | 17 BB : 66 K

RHP Justin Jarvis, 5th round, Lake Norman HS (NC), Rk
19 IP | 10 G / 3 GS | 6.63 ERA | 1.474 WHIP | 4 BB : 18 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP J.T. Hintzen, 10th round, Florida Southern College, A
39.2 IP | 17 G / 1 GS | 2.95 ERA | 1.109 WHIP | 11 BB : 48 K

In total, the Brewers 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.86 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP over 330.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 9 position players signed (2 SS, 4 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A). Three of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Brewers, two as Top 10 prospects.

Top Prospects

🔟 SS Brice Turang (L/R), 1st round, Santiago HS (CA), Rk
42 G | .283/.396/.352/.748 | 31 BB : 34 K | 14 SB : 2 CS

🔟 OF Joe Gray (R/R), 2nd round, Hattiesburg HS (MS), Rk
24 G | .182/.347/.325/.672 | 18 BB : 25 K

OF Micah Bello (R/R), 2nd round, Hilo HS (HI), Rk
39 G | .240/.324/.325/.648 | 18 BB : 41 K | 10 SB : 1 CS

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

C David Fry (R/R), 7th round, Northwestern State University of Louisiana, A
63 G | .312/.400/.550/.950 | 29 BB : 45 K | 15 2B / 2 3B / 12 HR | 57 RBI

In total, the Brewers 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .254/.360/.369/.729 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds

COMING NEXT
Pittsburgh Pirates

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