Showing posts with label NL Central. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NL Central. Show all posts

Friday, January 18, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: St. Louis Cardinals

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 939 | Signed 742 | Pitchers Signed 385 | Position Players Signed 357
Total WAR 502.4
Total Players to MLB 122

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 7 to MLB | WAR 66.6 | High WAR 44.9, OF J.D. Drew, 1st rd
1999 | 8 to MLB | WAR 133.6 | High WAR 100.0, 3B Albert Pujols, 13th rd
2000 | 5 to MLB | WAR 39.4 | High WAR 38.9, C Yadier Molina, 4th rd
2001 | 6 to MLB | WAR 33.0 | High WAR 35.0, RHP Dan Harren, 2nd rd
2002 | 4 to MLB | WAR 3.3 | High WAR 2.4, RHP Kyle McClellan, 25th rd
2003 | 7 to MLB | WAR 29.1 | High WAR 15.1, SS Brendan Ryan, 7th rd
2004 | 4 to MLB | WAR (2.2) | High WAR 0.4, 2B Jarrett Hoffpauir, 6th rd
2005 | 6 to MLB | WAR 28.3 | High WAR 19.8, OF Colby Rasmus, 1st rd
2006 | 11 to MLB | WAR 50.5 | High WAR 14.0, OF John Jay, 2nd rd
2007 | 11 to MLB | WAR (3.0) | High WAR 1.9, 3B Daniel Descalso, 3rd rd
2008 | 9 to MLB | WAR 20.9 | High WAR 14.7, RHP Lance Lynn, 1st rd
2009 | 10 to MLB | WAR 51.3 | High WAR 25.9, 3B Matt Carpenter, 13th rd
2010 | 9 to MLB | WAR 3.7 | High WAR 3.3, SS Greg Garcia, 7th rd
2011 | 6 to MLB | WAR 14.8 | High WAR 10.9, 2B Kolton Wong, 1st rd
2012 | 8 to MLB | WAR 16.8 | High WAR 7.3, 3B Stephen Piscotty, 1st rd
2013 | 3 to MLB | WAR 2.9 | High WAR 2.4, LHP Marco Gonzalez, 1st rd
2014 | 4 to MLB | WAR 2.2 | High WAR 2.3, RHP Jack Flaherty, 1st rd
2015 | 3 to MLB | WAR 10.7 | High WAR 6.5, 3B Paul DeJong, 4th rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.5 | High WAR 0.5, RHP Dakota Hudson, 1st rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date (BY FAR!!) is that of 1B/DH Albert Pujols (1999, 13th round, 100.0 WAR) which, in turn, drives the high total WAR for 1999 as well. Seven other players signed by the Cards that year made it to the bigs, but only OF Coco Crisp (7th round, 28.5 WAR) made a really significant contribution to the total WAR for that year's draft class. Crisp, however, never played for the Cardinals, having been dealt to Cleveland in 2002 in return for one final season of LHP Chuck Finley in St. Louis. Five of the other six played for St. Louis for varying amounts of time with OF Chris Duncan (1st round, 2.8 WAR) the only of the non-Pujols seven to earn a World Series ring with the Cardinals in 2006. But obviously Pujols was the biggest contributor from that draft class and spent his most productive years with the Cardinals, compiling a 86.6 WAR with that team before signing with the Angels as a free agent in December 2011. Named National League Rookie of the Year in 2001, Pujols went on to make nine All-Star appearances as a Cardinal as well as earning six Silver Sluggers, two Gold Gloves and World Series rings in 2006 and 2011. He was also named National League MVP in 2005, 2008 and 2009. Not bad for a 13th rounder.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 38 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 20 Position Players
34 College | 34 Signed | 17 Pitchers | 17 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 0 Position Players
5 HS/NS | 3 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 3 Position Players

Notable: The Cardinals received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A). They also forfeited their second round pick as a result of signing free agent RHP Greg Holland, but received a supplemental second round pick as compensation for losing free agent RHP Lance Lynn to the Twins. St. Louis signed all of their first 29 picks and 38 of 41 picks. However, 37th round pick college C Christian Caudle was reported to have signed, but was immediately released when his physical showed heart irregularities.

PITCHERS
Of the 18 pitchers signed (14 RHP, 4 LHP), all but one (college lefty Steven Gingery) logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (although that consisted of only one inning at Advanced A) and two debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Cardinals, one as a Top 10 prospect. Unfortunately, that Top 10 prospect will be sitting out 50 games in 2019 (see below). Three of the Cardinal's lower round picks were released in December (RHP Troy Montemayor, 25th round; RHP Ty Cohen, 31st round; and RHP Chris Rivera, 33rd round).

Top Prospects

🔟 RHP Griffin Roberts, 1st round, Wake Forest University, A+
9.2 IP | 8 G / 2 GS | 5.59 ERA | 1.034 | 4 BB : 13 K
(Suspended 50 games for failing a second test for a drug of abuse)

LHP Steven Gingery, 4th round, Texas Tech, DNP
Gingery had Tommy John surgery in March 2018

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Michael Baird, 23rd round, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, SSA
44.2 IP | 12 G / 4 GS | 1.61 ERA | 0.739 WHIP | 5 BB : 44 K

In total, the Cardinals 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.03 ERA and a 1.304 WHIP over 618.1 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
With the exception of Caudle (see above), all remaining 19 position players signed (2 1B, 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 SS, 5 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. Six players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (four to Full Season A and two to Advanced A). Two of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Cardinals, one as a Top 10 prospect.

Top Prospects

🔟 3B Nolan Gorman (L/R), 1st round, Sandra Day O'Connor HS (AZ), A
63 G | .291/.380/.570/.949 | 34 BB : 76 K | 13 2B / 3B / 17 HR
(Gorman led the entire 2018 Draft class in home runs)

1B Luken Baker (R/R), 2nd round, Texas Christian University, A
45 G | .319/.386/.460/.846 | 19 BB : 35 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

OF Justin Toerner (L/L), 28th round, California State University Northridge, A+
67 G | .312/.410/.385/.795 | 34 BB : 45 K

In total, the Cardinals 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .260/.353/.392/.745 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates

COMING NEXT
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

Thursday, January 17, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Pirates

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 937 | Signed 553 | Pitchers Signed 287 | Position Players Signed 266
Total WAR 297.9
Total Players to MLB 86

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.2 | High WAR 7.0, LHP Joe Beimel, 18th rd
1999 | 3 to MLB | WAR 8.5 | High WAR 8.8, C Ryan Doumit, 2nd rd
2000 | 5 to MLB | WAR 68.1 | High WAR 35.6, 3B Jose Bautista, 20th rd
2001 | 8 to MLB | WAR 28.3 | High WAR 12.3, LHP Zach Duke, 20th rd
2002 | 6 to MLB | WAR 10.8 | High WAR 6.8, OF Nyjer Morgan, 33rd rd
2003 | 6 to MLB | WAR 17.4 | High WAR 11.9, LHP Paul Maholm, 1st rd
2004 | 3 to MLB | WAR 19.8 | High WAR 20.5, C Neil Walker, 1st rd
2005 | 3 to MLB | WAR 51.3 | High WAR 42.0, OF Andrew McCutchen, 1st rd
2006 | 6 to MLB | WAR 7.6 | High WAR 8.2, RHP Jared Hughes, 4th rd
2007 | 4 to MLB | WAR 12.4 | High WAR 11.7, LHP Tony Watson, 9th rd
2008 | 6 to MLB | WAR 22.2 | High WAR 7.5, SS Jordy Mercer, 3rd rd
2009 | 5 to MLB | WAR 5.7 | High WAR 6.6, 2B Brock Holt, 9th rd
2010 | 4 to MLB | WAR 7.1 | High WAR 7.8, RHP Jameson Taillon, 1st rd
2011 | 6 to MLB | WAR 18.8 | High WAR 17.4, RHP Gerrit Cole, 1st rd
2012 | 3 to MLB | WAR 1.1 | High WAR 0.6, SS Max Moroff, 16th rd
2013 | 6 to MLB | WAR 10.3 | High WAR 4.9, SS Adam Frazier, 6th rd
2014 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.3) | High WAR (0.1), RHP Alex McRae, 10th rd
2015 | 5 to MLB | WAR (1.4) | High WAR 0.3, LHP Daniel Zamora, 40th rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of OF Andrew McCutchen (2005, 1st round, 42.0 WAR), but the high total WAR is from 2000, a draft which featured OF/3B Jose Bautista (35.6 WAR, 20th round), RHP Chris Young (17.3 WAR, 3rd round), OF Nate McLouth (6.4 WAR, 25th round), LHP Sean Burnett (5.8 WAR, 1st round) and RHP Ian Snell (3.0 WAR, 26th round). Bautista was lost to the Orioles in the 2003 Rule 5 Draft, but eventually ended up being traded back to the Pirates (after enduring three more moves in the following few months) in July 2004. Unfortunately, Bautista wasn't All-Star Bautista until he headed to Toronto a few seasons later. Chris Young never played for the Pirates, having been traded to the Expos for RHP Matt Herges in December 2002 (Herges was released in March 2003 without throwing a pitch for the Pirates). McLouth had the most success of the group in a Pirates uniform, earning an All-Star nod and a Gold Glove in the fourth of his five seasons with the Pirates (5.1 WAR in 515 games), but the remaining trio (Bautista, Snell and Burnett) combined for a whopping 1.8 WAR in their limited time with the Bucs. McCutchen, however, definitely earned his keep in nine seasons with the Pirates, appearing in five All-Star games, collecting one Gold Glove and four Silver Sluggers and being named the National League MVP in 2013. McCutchen was traded to the Giants in January 2018 and signed with the Phillies as a free agent in December 2018.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 33 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 17 Position Players
31 College | 30 Signed | 14 Pitchers | 16 Position Players
0 JC/CC | 0 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 0 Position Players
10 HS/NS | 3 Signed | 2 Pitchers | 1 Position Player

Notable: The Pirates received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A), but failed to sign that pick (HS RHP Gunnar Hoglund).  They did, however, sign all remaining picks in the first 21 rounds.

PITCHERS
Of the 16 pitchers signed (13 RHP, 3 LHP), all logged at least some playing time. Two players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A) and one debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Pirates.

Top Prospects

RHP Braxton Ashcraft, 2nd round, Robinson HS (TX), Rk
17.2 IP | 5 G / 5 GS | 4.58 ERA | 1.189 WHIP | 5 BB : 12 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Logan Stoelke, 9th round, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, A
22.2 IP | 20 G / 0 GS | 1.59 ERA | 0.750 WHIP | 9 BB : 35 K | 7 Saves

In total, the Pirates 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.22 ERA and a 1.348 WHIP over 474 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 17 position players signed (2 1B, 2 2B, 3B, 2 SS, 7 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. Five players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (three to Full Season A and two to Advanced A). One of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Pirates as a Top 10 prospect.

Top Prospects

🔟 OF Travis Swaggerty (L/L), 1st round, University of South Alabama, A
52 G | .239/.322/.383/.705 | 22 BB : 58 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

OF Danny Amaral (R/R), 14th round, UCLA, SSA
58 G | .244/.329/.382/.712 | 23 BB : 46 K | 25 SB : 6 CS

There were several noteworthy debuts by college players at the rookie level as well, but Amaral played at a slightly higher level and led the entire 2018 draft class in stolen bases.

In total, the Pirates 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .255/.354/.389/.743 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers

COMING NEXT
St. Louis Cardinals

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Milwaukee Brewers

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 938 | Signed 616 | Pitchers Signed 332 | Position Players Signed 284
Total WAR 356
Total Players to MLB 84

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 2 to MLB | WAR 9.5 | High WAR 9.7, SS Bill Hall, 6th rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 23.4 | High WAR 23.3, RHP Ben Sheets, 1st rd
2000 | 2 to MLB | WAR 14.6 | High WAR 14.4, OF Corey Hart, 11th rd
2001 | 6 to MLB | WAR 26.4 | High WAR 28.4, SS J.J. Hardy, 2nd rd
2002 | 6 to MLB | WAR 32.0 | High WAR 23.6, 1B Prince Fielder, 1st rd
2003 | 6 to MLB | WAR 18.1 | High WAR 11.8, 2B Rickie Weeks, 1st rd
2004 | 5 to MLB | WAR 57.3 | High WAR 34.0, OF Lorenzo Cain, 17th rd
2005 | 6 to MLB | WAR 68.8 | High WAR 46.4, 3B Ryan Braun, 1st rd
2006 | 3 to MLB | WAR 7.2 | High WAR 7.8, RHP Jeremy Jeffress, 1st rd
2007 | 7 to MLB | WAR 19.8 | High WAR 19.1, C Jonathan Lucroy, 3rd rd
2008 | 6 to MLB | WAR 24.2 | High WAR 15.1, 3B Brett Lawrie, 1st rd
2009 | 8 to MLB | WAR 32.5 | High WAR 12.1, OF Khris Davis, 7th rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 7.4 | High WAR 4.1, RHP Jimmy Nelson, 2nd rd
2011 | 7 to MLB | WAR 1.3 | High WAR 1.1, RHP Taylor Jungman, 1st rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.1 | High WAR 9.2, OF Mitch Haniger, 1st rd
2013 | 3 to MLB | WAR (0.2) | High WAR 0.1, 1B Garrett Cooper, 6th rd
2014 | 1 to MLB | WAR 1.0 | High WAR 1.0, RHP Brandon Woodruff, 11th rd
2015 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR (0.1), RHP Eric Hanhold, 6th rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.7 | High WAR 0.7, RHP Corbin Burnes, 4th rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of OF Ryan Braun (2005, 1st round, 46.4 WAR) and the high total WAR is also from 2005. Braun has spent his entire career with the Brewers (12 seasons to date), appearing in six All-Star games and earning five Silver Sluggers, the National League Rookie of the Year in 2007 and the National League MVP in 2011. The only other big impact player signed in the Brewers 2005 Draft class is OF Michael Brantley (7th round, 22.7 WAR). Brantley was traded to Cleveland (along with three other players) as the PTBNL in a July 2008 deal that sent LHP C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers. Sabathia was a rental player who ultimately was not able to help the Brewers in their postseason efforts (the Brewers lost the NLDS to the Phillies 3-1). Since the other players in that trade had minimal or no impact in the majors, that trade can be seen as a very good half season of pitching for the Brewers up against all or parts of 10 seasons, three All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger for Cleveland. If the Brewers had gone deep into the postseason in 2008, they would likely have taken that deal every time ... but they didn't. Brantley signed with the Astros as a free agent in December 2018.

2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 22 Signed | 13 Pitchers | 9 Position Players
11 College | 9 Signed | 7 Pitchers | 2 Position Players
7 JC/CC | 3 Signed | 2 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
22 HS/NS | 10 Signed | 4 Pitchers | 6 Position Players

Notable: The Brewers received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round B) and forfeited one pick (third round) for signing free agent OF Lorenzo Cain. They signed their top 10 picks, but only signed 5 of their next 10. The highest unsigned pick was 11th round college RHP Davis Daniel.

PITCHERS
Of the 13 pitchers signed (9 RHP, 4 LHP), all but one (college right-hander Drew Rasmussen, 6th round) logged at least some playing time. Four players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (all to Full Season A) and two of them debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Brewers.

Top Prospects

LHP Aaron Ashby, 4th round, Crowder College (CC), A
57.2 IP | 13 G / 10 GS | 3.59 ERA | 1.301 WHIP | 17 BB : 66 K

RHP Justin Jarvis, 5th round, Lake Norman HS (NC), Rk
19 IP | 10 G / 3 GS | 6.63 ERA | 1.474 WHIP | 4 BB : 18 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP J.T. Hintzen, 10th round, Florida Southern College, A
39.2 IP | 17 G / 1 GS | 2.95 ERA | 1.109 WHIP | 11 BB : 48 K

In total, the Brewers 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.86 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP over 330.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 9 position players signed (2 SS, 4 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A). Three of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Brewers, two as Top 10 prospects.

Top Prospects

🔟 SS Brice Turang (L/R), 1st round, Santiago HS (CA), Rk
42 G | .283/.396/.352/.748 | 31 BB : 34 K | 14 SB : 2 CS

🔟 OF Joe Gray (R/R), 2nd round, Hattiesburg HS (MS), Rk
24 G | .182/.347/.325/.672 | 18 BB : 25 K

OF Micah Bello (R/R), 2nd round, Hilo HS (HI), Rk
39 G | .240/.324/.325/.648 | 18 BB : 41 K | 10 SB : 1 CS

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

C David Fry (R/R), 7th round, Northwestern State University of Louisiana, A
63 G | .312/.400/.550/.950 | 29 BB : 45 K | 15 2B / 2 3B / 12 HR | 57 RBI

In total, the Brewers 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .254/.360/.369/.729 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds

COMING NEXT
Pittsburgh Pirates

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Cincinnati Reds

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

CINCINNATI REDS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 951 | Signed 599 | Pitchers Signed 328 | Position Players Signed 271
Total WAR 289.6
Total Players to MLB 83

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 7 to MLB | WAR 45.4 | High WAR 17.4, OF Adam Dunn, 2nd rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 4.7 | High WAR 4.4, 1B Ben Broussard, 2nd rd
2000 | 4 to MLB | WAR (0.6) | High WAR 0.7, RHP Dustin Moseley, 1st rd
2001 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2002 | 2 to MLB | WAR 69.3 | High WAR 58.8, C Joey Votto, 2nd rd
2003 | 3 to MLB | WAR 3.0 | High WAR 3.4, OF Chris Dickerson, 16th rd
2004 | 4 to MLB | WAR 3.6 | High WAR 4.0, RHP Homer Bailey, 1st rd
2005 | 7 to MLB | WAR 31.0 | High WAR 18.9, OF Jay Bruce, 1st rd
2006 | 9 to MLB | WAR 36.8 | High WAR 24.1, 2B Justin Turner, 7th rd
2007 | 7 to MLB | WAR 43.6 | High WAR 23.8, 3B Todd Frazier, 1st rd
2008 | 5 to MLB | WAR 7.4 | High WAR 9.1, 1B Yonder Alonso, 1st rd
2009 | 6 to MLB | WAR 30.9 | High WAR 15.6, RHP Mike Leake, 1st rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.6 | High WAR 13.5, C Yasmani Grandal, 1st rd
2011 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.6) | High WAR 2.6, LHP Tony Cingrani, 3rd rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.9) | High WAR 0.4, OF Jesse Winker, 1st rd
2013 | 7 to MLB | WAR 4.2 | High WAR 3.4, RHP Michael Lorenzon, 1st rd
2014 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.3 | High WAR 0.3, SS Alex Blandino, 1st rd
2015 | 2 to MLB | WAR (1.1) | High WAR (0.1), SS Blake Trahan, 3rd rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of 1B Joey Votto (2002, 2nd round, 58.8 WAR) and the high total WAR is also from 2002. Votto has spent his entire career with the Reds (12 seasons to date), appearing in six All-Star games and earning the National League MVP in 2010 and a Gold Glove in 2011. The only other signed player from the Reds 2002 Draft class to appear in the big leagues is OF Chris Donorfia (19th round, 10.5 WAR). Donorfia played two seasons for the Reds before being traded to Oakland (April 2007) in a very lopsided trade which gave the Reds a total of 19.2 innings of MLB pitching and a -0.1 WAR.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 29 Signed | 17 Pitchers | 12 Position Players
23 College | 21 Signed | 14 Pitchers | 7 Position Players
3 JC/CC | 2 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 2 Position Players
15 HS/NS | 6 Signed | 3 Pitchers | 3 Position Players

Notable: The Reds received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round B). They signed their top 12 picks, but failed to sign seven of their next 12 picks with the top holdout being 12th round high school lefty Josiah Sightler (SC).

PITCHERS
Of the 17 pitchers signed (15 RHP, 2 LHP), all but one (college right-hander Noah Davis, 11th round) logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Advanced A) and one of them debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Reds. Another Reds 2018 Draft pick, RHP Josiah Gray (see below), was included in this December 2018 trade to the Dodgers and now appears among their Top 30 prospects.

Top Prospects

RHP Lyon Richardson, 2nd round, Jensen Beach HS (FL), Rk
29 IP | 11 G / 11 GS | 7.14 ERA | 1.828 WHIP | 16 BB : 24 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Josiah Gray, 2nd round, LeMoyne College, Rk
52.1 IP | 12 G / 12 GS | 2.58 ERA | 0.879 WHIP | 17 BB : 59 K
(Traded to the Dodgers in December 2018)

(I would have been more impressed by Gray's debut had the Reds promoted him above the rookie level during the season. But given that the Reds did not have a Short Season A affiliate in 2018, it's somewhat understandable. Byrne, on the other hand, spent his entire 2018 season with the Advanced A Florida State League which makes his numbers play up.)

RHP Mike Byrne, 14th round, University of Florida, A+
21.2 IP | 19 G / 0 GS | 1.25 ERA | 1.338 WHIP | 10 BB : 17 K

In total, the Reds 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.73 ERA and a 1.396 WHIP over 467.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 12 position players signed (1B, 3B, SS, 5 OF, 4 C) logged at least some playing time. Two players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, one to Full Season A and one to Advanced A. Two of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Reds, both as Top 10 prospects.

Top Prospects

🔟 3B Jonathan India (R/R), 1st round, University of Florida, A
44 G | .240/.380/.433/.814 | 28 BB : 44 K

🔟 OF Mike Siani (L/L), 4th round, William Penn Charter School (PA), Rk
46 G | .288/.351/.386/.737 | 16 BB : 35 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

OF Drew Mount (L/R), 16th round, Kansas State University, Rk
65 G | .310/.362/.488/.850 | 18 BB : 40 K | 19 2B / 8 HR | 58 RBI

1B Rylan Thomas (R/R), 26th round, University of Central Florida, Rk
55 G | .257/.400/.492/.892 | 41 BB : 49 K | 12 2B / 10 HR

(Again, these numbers would be more impressive had these two college players been promoted above rookie ball.)

In total, the Reds 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .258/.351/.396/.747 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs

COMING NEXT
Milwaukee Brewers

Monday, January 14, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Chicago Cubs

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

CHICAGO CUBS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 945 | Signed 572 | Pitchers Signed 282 | Position Players Signed 290
Total WAR 282.3
Total Players to MLB 90

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 4 to MLB | WAR 20.6 | High WAR 9.7, OF Corey Patterson, 1st rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR (1.9) | High WAR (0.1), OF Ray Sadler, 30th rd
2000 | 10 to MLB | WAR 15.8 | High WAR 19.7, LHP Dontrelle Willis, 8th rd
2001 | 7 to MLB | WAR 49.4 | High WAR 16.6, RHP Mark Prior, 1st rd
2002 | 6 to MLB | WAR 18.9 | High WAR 12.4, LHP Rich Hill, 4th rd
2003 | 4 to MLB | WAR 9.8 | High WAR 9.3, LHP Sean Marshall, 6th rd
2004 | 6 to MLB | WAR 8.8 | High WAR 6.0, LHP Jerry Blevins, 17th rd
2005 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR (0.1), LHP Donnie Veal, 2nd rd
2006 | 5 to MLB | WAR 15.5 | High WAR 12.0, RHP Jeff Samardzija, 5th rd
2007 | 5 to MLB | WAR 51.9 | High WAR 38.5, C Josh Donaldson, 1st rd
2008 | 10 to MLB | WAR 23.0 | High WAR 13.9, 2B Josh Harrison, 6th rd
2009 | 5 to MLB | WAR 25.3 | High WAR 17.6, IF D.J. LeMahieu, 2nd rd
2010 | 3 to MLB | WAR (1.0) | High WAR 0.2, LHP Eric Jokisch, 11th rd
2011 | 7 to MLB | WAR 12.0 | High WAR 11.9, SS Javier Baez, 1st rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 5.0 | High WAR 3.5, OF Albert Almora, 1st rd
2013 | 4 to MLB | WAR 24.4 | High WAR 21.6, 3B Kris Bryant, 1st rd
2014 | 3 to MLB | WAR 2.6 | High WAR 2.7, C Kyle Schwarber, 1st rd
2015 | 1 to MLB | WAR 2.3 | High WAR 2.3, OF Ian Happ, 1st rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest individual WAR to date is that of 3B Josh Donaldson (2007, 1st round, 38.5 WAR). The high total WAR is also from 2007. Donaldson never played for the Cubs, having been traded to Oakland (along with three other players) in July 2008 for an underwhelming half season of RHP Chad Gaudin and a solid season and a half of RHP Rich Harden. The Cubs efforts to bolster their postseason chances with the move failed as the Cubs lost the NLDS to the Dodgers in three games that season, making the Donaldson trade look particularly lopsided in retrospect. Three-time All-Star Donaldson was the American League MVP for Toronto in 2015 and he earned two Silver Sluggers with that organization as well. He recently signed as a free agent with the Braves. Other members of that 2007 class who did contribute at least a part of their careers in a Cubs uniform were 2B Darwin Barney (4th round. 9.3 WAR), LHP James Russell (14th round) and 3B Josh Vitters (1st round), but Barney's one Gold Glove and the 7.4 WAR he posted in parts of five seasons with the Cubs were the only really significant contributions for the Cubs from the entire 2007 class.

2018 DRAFT
42 Drafted | 32 Signed | 15 Pitchers | 17 Position Players
26 College | 24 Signed | 12 Pitchers | 12 Position Players
3 JC/CC | 3 Signed | 2 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
13 HS/NS | 5 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 4 Position Players

Notable: The Cubs earned two compensation picks in the second round (for failure to re-sign free agents RHP Wade Davis and RHP Jake Arrieta) and signed all 20 of their top picks. The first unsigned pick was 19th round college right-hander Layne Looney.

PITCHERS
Of the 15 pitchers signed (12 RHP, 3 LHP), all but two (college lefty Josh Sawyer, 16th round, and college right-hander Jake Reindl, 17th round) logged at least some playing time. None of the players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level and none of them debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Cubs.

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Paul Richan, 2nd round, University of San Diego, SSA
29.2 IP | 10 G / 9 GS | 2.12 ERA | 0.809 WHIP | 5 BB : 31 K

In total, the Cubs 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.34 ERA and a 1.282 WHIP over 250.1 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 17 position players signed (1B, 2 2B, 2 3B, 3 SS, 9 OF) logged at least some playing time. Three players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, all to Full Season A. Three of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Cubs, one as a Top 10 prospect. According to MiLB.com, 30th round pick OF Drew Wharton voluntarily retired in January 2019.

Top Prospects

🔟 SS Nico Hoerner (R/R), 1st round, Stanford University, A
14 G | .327/.450/.571/1.021 | 9 BB : 4 K
(Arizona Fall League: 21 G | .337/.362/.506/.867 | 2 BB : 16 K)

OF Brennen Davis (R/R), 2nd round, Basha HS (AZ), Rk
18 G | .298/.431/.333/.764 | 10 BB : 12 K

OF Cole Roederer (L/L), 2nd round, William S. Hart HS (CA), Rk
36 G | .275/.354/.465/.819 | 18 BB : 37 K | 13 SB : 4 CS

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

3B Luke Reynolds (L/R), 10th round, University of Southern Mississippi, SSA
48 G | .265/.366/.386/.752 | 26 BB : 46 K

In total, the Cubs 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .255/.338/.353/.690 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced.

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

Previously:
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

Coming Next:
Cincinnati Reds