My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 938 | Signed 626 | Pitchers Signed 326 | Position Players Signed 300
Total WAR 260
Total Players to MLB 103
Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.
1998 | 4 to MLB | WAR 14.1 | High WAR 7.5, SS Felipe Lopez, 1st rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 44.4 | High WAR 27.4, 3B Alex Rios, 1st rd
2000 | 4 to MLB | WAR 1.9 | High WAR 1.7, RHP Dustin McGowan, 1st rd
2001 | 5 to MLB | WAR 6.3 | High WAR 4.6, OF Gabe Gross, 1st rd
2002 | 7 to MLB | WAR 2.5 | High WAR 3.6, RHP Dave Bush, 2nd rd
2003 | 7 to MLB | WAR 41.5 | High WAR 23.7, SS Aaron Hill, 1st rd
2004 | 6 to MLB | WAR 22.2 | High WAR 11.9, 1B Adam Lind, 3rd rd
2005 | 2 to MLB | WAR 10.0 | High WAR 9.9, LHP Ricky Romero, 1st rd
2006 | 3 to MLB | WAR 3.6 | High WAR 4.3, OF Travis Snider, 1st rd
2007 | 8 to MLB | WAR 8.8 | High WAR 6.6, LHP Brett Cecil, 1st rd
2008 | 7 to MLB | WAR 0.5 | High WAR 1.8, OF Eric Thames, 7th rd
2009 | 10 to MLB | WAR 34.8 | High WAR 11.7, C Yan Gomes, 10th rd
2010 | 10 to MLB | WAR 25.1 | High WAR 13.2, RHP Noah Syndergaard, 1st rd
2011 | 9 to MLB | WAR 22.7 | High WAR 14.3, OF Kevin Pillar, 32nd rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.3 | High WAR 10.9, RHP Marcus Stroman, 1st rd
2013 | 9 to MLB | WAR 10.3 | High WAR 5.5, RHP Kendall Graveman, 8th rd
2014 | 3 to MLB | WAR (1.0) | High WAR 0.1, RHP Justin Shafer, 8th rd
2015 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
The highest WAR to date, both total and individual, is from 1999. 3B Alex Rios (1st round, 27.4 WAR) spent all or part of six seasons with Toronto and those years, including his two All-Star seasons in 2006 and 2007 were among his most productive seasons. The Blue Jays lost Rios to the White Sox on the waiver wire in August 2009. The other three players from that 1999 class to make it to the bigs were OF Reed Johnson (17th round, 10.3 WAR), RHP Brandon Lyon (14th round, 6.3 WAR) and LHP Matt Ford (3rd round, 0.4 WAR). Lyon was also lost to a waiver claim (after two seasons with the Blue Jays) and ended up bouncing around among four teams before being traded back to Toronto 10 years later. Johnson was released after five years with the Blue Jays and went on to play for five other clubs over eight seasons. And Ford was lost to the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft and never played for Toronto at the major league level.
2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 32 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 14 Position Players
29 College | 26 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 10 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 2 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 1 Position Player
9 HS/NS | 4 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 3 Position Players
Notable: The Blue Jays signed all of their first 20 draft picks (and 25 of the top 26) with the first miss being California HS LHP Kobby Lopez in the 21st round.
PITCHERS
All but two of the 18 pitchers signed (17 RHP, 1 LHP) logged at least some playing time. None of these pitchers were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. One of the pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Blue Jays. One player, 33rd round RHP Matt Harris voluntarily retired in October.
Top Prospects
RHP Adam Kloffenstein, 3rd round, Magnolia HS (TX), Rk
2 IP | 2 G / 2 GS | 0.00 ERA | 1.500 WHIP | 2 BB : 4 K
Noteworthy Debut
RHP Joey Pulido, 32nd round, University of Houston, SSA
36.2 IP | 23 G / 0 GS | 0.98 ERA | 0.873 WHIP | 11 BB : 32 K
In total, the Blue Jays 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.22 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP over 389 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 14 position players signed (1B, 2B, 3B, 3 SS, 4 OF, 4 C) logged at least some playing time. (Note: One additional 1B can be added to the totals breakdown to account for two-way player Andy McGuire. Also, although I have included Jordan Groshans as a SS in the totals, he actually played an identical number of games at 3B.) One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, to Full Season A. Two players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Blue Jays, one as a Top 10 prospect.
Top Prospects
🔟 SS/3B Jordan Groshans (R/R), 1st round, Magnolia HS (TX), Rk
48 G | .296/.353/.446/.799 | 15 BB : 37 K
OF Griffin Conine (L/R), 2nd round, Duke University, SSA
57 G | .243/.314/.430/.744 | 20 BB : 65 K | 15 2B / 2 3B / 7 HR
Currently serving a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned stimulant.
Noteworthy Debut
OF Cal Stevenson (L/L), 10th round, University of Arizona, Rk
59 G | .369/.511/.523/1.034 | 64 BB : 24 K | 21 SB : 1 CS | 15 2B / 6 3B / 2 HR / 73 R
Although Stevenson should have been challenged to a higher level than the Rookie level Appy League, there is no denying that he had an excellent freshman season, including leading the entire 2018 Draft class in walks and runs scored.
In total, the Blue Jays 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .245/.348/.371/.719 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 938 | Signed 626 | Pitchers Signed 326 | Position Players Signed 300
Total WAR 260
Total Players to MLB 103
Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.
1998 | 4 to MLB | WAR 14.1 | High WAR 7.5, SS Felipe Lopez, 1st rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 44.4 | High WAR 27.4, 3B Alex Rios, 1st rd
2000 | 4 to MLB | WAR 1.9 | High WAR 1.7, RHP Dustin McGowan, 1st rd
2001 | 5 to MLB | WAR 6.3 | High WAR 4.6, OF Gabe Gross, 1st rd
2002 | 7 to MLB | WAR 2.5 | High WAR 3.6, RHP Dave Bush, 2nd rd
2003 | 7 to MLB | WAR 41.5 | High WAR 23.7, SS Aaron Hill, 1st rd
2004 | 6 to MLB | WAR 22.2 | High WAR 11.9, 1B Adam Lind, 3rd rd
2005 | 2 to MLB | WAR 10.0 | High WAR 9.9, LHP Ricky Romero, 1st rd
2006 | 3 to MLB | WAR 3.6 | High WAR 4.3, OF Travis Snider, 1st rd
2007 | 8 to MLB | WAR 8.8 | High WAR 6.6, LHP Brett Cecil, 1st rd
2008 | 7 to MLB | WAR 0.5 | High WAR 1.8, OF Eric Thames, 7th rd
2009 | 10 to MLB | WAR 34.8 | High WAR 11.7, C Yan Gomes, 10th rd
2010 | 10 to MLB | WAR 25.1 | High WAR 13.2, RHP Noah Syndergaard, 1st rd
2011 | 9 to MLB | WAR 22.7 | High WAR 14.3, OF Kevin Pillar, 32nd rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.3 | High WAR 10.9, RHP Marcus Stroman, 1st rd
2013 | 9 to MLB | WAR 10.3 | High WAR 5.5, RHP Kendall Graveman, 8th rd
2014 | 3 to MLB | WAR (1.0) | High WAR 0.1, RHP Justin Shafer, 8th rd
2015 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
The highest WAR to date, both total and individual, is from 1999. 3B Alex Rios (1st round, 27.4 WAR) spent all or part of six seasons with Toronto and those years, including his two All-Star seasons in 2006 and 2007 were among his most productive seasons. The Blue Jays lost Rios to the White Sox on the waiver wire in August 2009. The other three players from that 1999 class to make it to the bigs were OF Reed Johnson (17th round, 10.3 WAR), RHP Brandon Lyon (14th round, 6.3 WAR) and LHP Matt Ford (3rd round, 0.4 WAR). Lyon was also lost to a waiver claim (after two seasons with the Blue Jays) and ended up bouncing around among four teams before being traded back to Toronto 10 years later. Johnson was released after five years with the Blue Jays and went on to play for five other clubs over eight seasons. And Ford was lost to the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft and never played for Toronto at the major league level.
2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 32 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 14 Position Players
29 College | 26 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 10 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 2 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 1 Position Player
9 HS/NS | 4 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 3 Position Players
Notable: The Blue Jays signed all of their first 20 draft picks (and 25 of the top 26) with the first miss being California HS LHP Kobby Lopez in the 21st round.
PITCHERS
All but two of the 18 pitchers signed (17 RHP, 1 LHP) logged at least some playing time. None of these pitchers were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. One of the pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Blue Jays. One player, 33rd round RHP Matt Harris voluntarily retired in October.
RHP Adam Kloffenstein, 3rd round, Magnolia HS (TX), Rk
2 IP | 2 G / 2 GS | 0.00 ERA | 1.500 WHIP | 2 BB : 4 K
Noteworthy Debut
RHP Joey Pulido, 32nd round, University of Houston, SSA
36.2 IP | 23 G / 0 GS | 0.98 ERA | 0.873 WHIP | 11 BB : 32 K
In total, the Blue Jays 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.22 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP over 389 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 14 position players signed (1B, 2B, 3B, 3 SS, 4 OF, 4 C) logged at least some playing time. (Note: One additional 1B can be added to the totals breakdown to account for two-way player Andy McGuire. Also, although I have included Jordan Groshans as a SS in the totals, he actually played an identical number of games at 3B.) One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, to Full Season A. Two players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Blue Jays, one as a Top 10 prospect.
Top Prospects
🔟 SS/3B Jordan Groshans (R/R), 1st round, Magnolia HS (TX), Rk
48 G | .296/.353/.446/.799 | 15 BB : 37 K
OF Griffin Conine (L/R), 2nd round, Duke University, SSA
57 G | .243/.314/.430/.744 | 20 BB : 65 K | 15 2B / 2 3B / 7 HR
Currently serving a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned stimulant.
🔟 Top 10 Prospect
Noteworthy Debut
OF Cal Stevenson (L/L), 10th round, University of Arizona, Rk
59 G | .369/.511/.523/1.034 | 64 BB : 24 K | 21 SB : 1 CS | 15 2B / 6 3B / 2 HR / 73 R
Although Stevenson should have been challenged to a higher level than the Rookie level Appy League, there is no denying that he had an excellent freshman season, including leading the entire 2018 Draft class in walks and runs scored.
In total, the Blue Jays 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .245/.348/.371/.719 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced
GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of early January and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.
PREVIOUSLY
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary
NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
NL West 2018 Draft Summary
AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
COMING NEXT
AL East 2018 Draft Summary
PREVIOUSLY
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary
NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
NL West 2018 Draft Summary
AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
COMING NEXT
AL East 2018 Draft Summary
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