Tuesday, January 22, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Colorado Rockies

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

COLORADO ROCKIES

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 952 | Signed 592 | Pitchers Signed 319 | Position Players Signed 273
Total WAR 327.8
Total Players to MLB 88

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 8 to MLB | WAR 68.9 | High WAR 44.8, 3B Matt Holliday, 7th rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 15.8 | High WAR 11.2, RHP Jason Jennings, 1st rd
2000 | 9 to MLB | WAR 23.0 | High WAR 15.6, SS Clint Barmes, 10th rd
2001 | 2 to MLB | WAR 2.8 | High WAR 1.9, SS Jayson Nix, 1st rd
2002 | 7 to MLB | WAR 11.2 | High WAR 9.6, LHP Jeff Francis, 1st rd
2003 | 3 to MLB | WAR 5.2 | High WAR 3.0, 3B Ian Stewart, 1st rd
2004 | 12 to MLB | WAR 44.2 | High WAR 17.9, OF Dexter Fowler, 14th rd
2005 | 2 to MLB | WAR 45.4 | High WAR 44.1, SS Troy Tulowitzski, 1st rd
2006 | 3 to MLB | WAR 6.4 | High WAR 5.6, RHP Will Harris, 9th rd
2007 | 3 to MLB | WAR (1.7) | High WAR 2.7, LHP Matt Reynolds, 20th rd
2008 | 3 to MLB | WAR 15.0 | High WAR 16.1, OF Charlie Blackmon, 2nd rd
2009 | 6 to MLB | WAR 41.4 | High WAR 33.1, 3B Nolan Arenado, 2nd rd
2010 | 6 to MLB | WAR 12.4 | High WAR 12.6, OF Corey Dickerson, 8th rd
2011 | 4 to MLB | WAR 19.6 | High WAR 11.4, SS Trevor Story, 1st rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 1.4 | High WAR 2.5, RHP Scott Oberg, 15th rd
2013 | 6 to MLB | WAR 4.6 | High WAR 6.6, RHP Jon Gray, 1st rd
2014 | 4 to MLB | WAR 11.9 | High WAR 11.5, LHP Kyle Freeland, 1st rd
2015 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.3 | High WAR 0.3, SS Garrett Hampson, 3rd rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date, both individual and total, is from 1998 with OF Matt Holliday leading the way. Holliday started his MLB career with the Rockies (2004 through 2008) before being traded to Oakland for OF Carlos GonzalezRHP Huston Street and LHP Greg Smith. The value that the Rockies received in that trade (mostly due to Gonzalez's long tenure with the Rockies) worked out to be fairly equivalent to their loss of Holliday. Holliday was a three-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger during his time with the Rockies. After only a short time with Oakland, Holliday was traded to the Cardinals where he continued to have success for several years. Most recently Holliday re-signed with the Rockies as a free agent in July 2018. He is currently a free agent.

After Holliday, the two most productive players from the Rockies 1998 Draft class are OF Juan Pierre (13th round, 17.1 WAR) and OF Jody Gerut (2nd round, 7.2 WAR). Gerut never played for the Rockies, having been traded to the Indians in 2001, but Pierre played for Colorado from 2000 through 2002 before being traded to the Marlins.

Nipping at Holliday's heels for high individual WAR is SS Troy Tulowitski (1st round, 2005, 44.1 WAR). Tulowitzki played for the Rockies for 10 seasons prior to his July 2015 trade to the Blue Jays. He was a five-time All-Star, earning two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers during his time with Colorado.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 33 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 15 Position Players
31 College | 31 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 13 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
8 HS/NS | 1 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 1 Position Player

Notable: The Rockies received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A). They forfeited their second round pick for signing free agent RHP Wade Davis, but that was offset by a second round compensation pick awarded to them for losing free agent RHP Greg Holland to the Cardinals. Colorado signed all of their top 33 picks. The first miss was 33rd round Florida HS RHP Nick Pogue.

PITCHERS
Of the 18 pitchers signed (10 RHP, 8 LHP), all but two (college right-handers Mitchell Kilkenny, 2nd round and Andrew Quezada, 7th round) logged at least some playing time. None of these players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. One player debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Rockies, in the Top 10.

Top Prospects

🔟 LHP Ryan Rolison, 1st round, University of Mississippi, Rk
29 IP | 9 G / 9 GS | 1.86 ERA | 0.793 WHIP | 8 BB : 34 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Ryan Feltner, 4th round, The Ohio State University, Rk
30.2 IP | 9 G / 9 GS | 0.88 ERA | 0.652 WHIP | 4 BB : 39 K

In total, the Rockies 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.70 ERA and a 1.322 WHIP over 435.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All but one the 15 position players signed (1B, 4 2B, 2 3B, SS, 5 OF, 2 C) logged at least some playing time, with the exception being 25th round college 2B Robbie Metz. None of the players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. Two of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Rockies, one as a Top 10 prospect.

Top Prospects

🔟 1B Grant Lavigne (L/R), 1st round, Bedford HS (NH), Rk
59 G | .350/.477/.519/.996 | 45 BB : 40 K

SS Terrin Vavra (L/R), 3rd round, University of Minnesota, SSA
44 G | .302/.396/.467/.863 | 26 BB : 40 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

There were actually quite a few noteworthy debuts, but my enthusiasm is somewhat tempered by the lack of promotion of these college players.

OF Niko Decolati (R/R), 6th round, Loyola Marymount University, Rk
69 G | .327/.414/.532/.947 | 34 BB : 56 K | 15 2B / 3 3B / 11 HR | 56 RBI

2B Coco Montes (R/R), 15th round, University of South Florida, Rk
69 G | .333/.413/.513/.926 | 35 BB : 69 K | 18 2B / 3 3B / 8 HR | 42 RBI

In total, the Rockies 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .291/.371/.479/.850 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks

COMING NEXT
Los Angeles Dodgers

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