My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 937 | Signed 603 | Pitchers Signed 311 | Position Players Signed 292
Total WAR 236.7
Total Players to MLB 81
Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.
1998 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR 0.2, OF Tim Raines, 6th rd
1999 | 7 to MLB | WAR 53.7 | High WAR 30.4, SS Brian Roberts, 1st rd
2000 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.5) | High WAR (0.5), OF Kurt Birkins, 33rd rd
2001 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.5 | High WAR 8.1, RHP Jim Johnson, 5th rd
2002 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.6) | High WAR 3.9, RHP John Maine, 6th rd
2003 | 5 to MLB | WAR 32.1 | High WAR 32.4, OF Nick Markakis, 1st rd
2004 | 3 to MLB | WAR 3.1 | High WAR 2.9, RHP Brad Bergesen, 4th rd
2005 | 4 to MLB | WAR 6.4 | High WAR 6.5, RHP David Hernandez, 16th rd
2006 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.4 | High WAR 11.7, LHP Zach Britton, 3rd rd
2007 | 4 to MLB | WAR 42.3 | High WAR 24.5, RHP Jake Arrieta, 5th rd
2008 | 8 to MLB | WAR 6.2 | High WAR 4.5, C Caleb Joseph, 7th rd
2009 | 4 to MLB | WAR 6.0 | High WAR 5.8, SS Mychal Givens, 2nd rd
2010 | 4 to MLB | WAR 35.8 | High WAR 33.8, SS Manny Machado, 1st rd
2011 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.4 | High WAR 5.5, RHP Zach Davies, 26th rd
2012 | 3 to MLB | WAR 14.9 | High WAR 11.3, RHP Kevin Gausman, 1st rd
2013 | 8 to MLB | WAR 4.3 | High WAR 2.5, 1B Trey Mancini, 8th rd
2014 | 4 to MLB | WAR 0.1 | High WAR 0.8, RHP David Hess, 5th rd
2015 | 3 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 0.5, OF D. J. Stewart, 1st rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.5) | High WAR (0.5), OF Austin Hayes, 3rd rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
The highest WAR to date goes to 3B Manny Machado (2010, 1st round, 33.8 WAR) with 1999 representing the high total WAR. The most productive players of the 1999 Orioles Draft class were 2B Brian Roberts (1st round, 30.4 WAR) and LHP Erik Bedard (6th round, 17.3 WAR). The Orioles certainly got their money's worth out of two-time All-Star Roberts who spent 13 of his 14 MLB seasons with Baltimore. However, Bedard actually earned the Orioles more overall value than Roberts when one considers that, after providing 12.8 WAR in five seasons with Baltimore, Bedard was straight up traded to the Mariners for five players, two of whom went on to play several years for the team -- OF Adam Jones (31.5 WAR over 11 seasons) and RHP Chris Tillman (9.3 WAR over 10 seasons). Machado was also involved in a straight up trade (with the Dodgers in July 2018) for five players, but since four of the five players are still minor leaguers, it will likely take a long time to determine how that trade works out for the Orioles. However, the trade did not work as intended for the Dodgers; they obtained Machado as a rental player to help them in the World Series, but they fell short and Machado is now a free agent.
2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 32 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 16 Position Players
26 College | 23 Signed | 10 Pitchers | 13 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
12 HS/NS | 8 Signed | 6 Pitchers | 2 Position Players
Notable: The Orioles received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A), but forfeited their second round pick by signing free agent RHP Alex Cobb. Baltimore signed their first 19 picks; the first holdout was 20th round RHP Caleb Kilian out of Texas Tech.
PITCHERS
All of the 16 pitchers signed (10 RHP, 6 LHP) logged at least some playing time. None of these players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. Two of the pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Orioles, both as Top 10 prospects.
Top Prospects
🔟 RHP Grayson Rodriguez, 1st round, Central Heights HS (TX), Rk
19.1 IP | 9 G / 8 GS | 1.40 ERA | 1.241 WHIP | 7 BB : 20 K
🔟 RHP Blaine Knight, 3rd round, University of Arkansas, SSA
10.1 IP | 4 G / 4 GS | 2.61 ERA | 1.548 WHIP | 3 BB : 8 K
🔟 Top 10 Prospect
Noteworthy Debut
LHP Kevin Magee, 9th round, St. John's University, SSA
38 IP | 15 G / 3 GS | 1.66 ERA | 1.000 WHIP | 10 BB : 35 K
In total, the Orioles 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.97 ERA and a 1.449 WHIP over 330.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
POSITION PLAYERS
Of the 16 position players signed (1B, 2B, 2 3B, 3 SS, 6 OF, 3 C), all but two logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A). Two players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Orioles, one as a Top 10 prospect.
Top Prospects
🔟 SS Cadyn Grenier (R/R), 1st round, Oregon State University, A
43 G | .216/.297/.333/.630 | 17 BB : 53 K
OF Robert Neustrom (L/L), 5th round, University of Iowa, SSA
61 G | .272/.313/.404/.716 | 13 BB : 45 K
🔟 Top 10 Prospect
In total, the Orioles 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .219/.298/.322/.619 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 937 | Signed 603 | Pitchers Signed 311 | Position Players Signed 292
Total WAR 236.7
Total Players to MLB 81
Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.
1998 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR 0.2, OF Tim Raines, 6th rd
1999 | 7 to MLB | WAR 53.7 | High WAR 30.4, SS Brian Roberts, 1st rd
2000 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.5) | High WAR (0.5), OF Kurt Birkins, 33rd rd
2001 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.5 | High WAR 8.1, RHP Jim Johnson, 5th rd
2002 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.6) | High WAR 3.9, RHP John Maine, 6th rd
2003 | 5 to MLB | WAR 32.1 | High WAR 32.4, OF Nick Markakis, 1st rd
2004 | 3 to MLB | WAR 3.1 | High WAR 2.9, RHP Brad Bergesen, 4th rd
2005 | 4 to MLB | WAR 6.4 | High WAR 6.5, RHP David Hernandez, 16th rd
2006 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.4 | High WAR 11.7, LHP Zach Britton, 3rd rd
2007 | 4 to MLB | WAR 42.3 | High WAR 24.5, RHP Jake Arrieta, 5th rd
2008 | 8 to MLB | WAR 6.2 | High WAR 4.5, C Caleb Joseph, 7th rd
2009 | 4 to MLB | WAR 6.0 | High WAR 5.8, SS Mychal Givens, 2nd rd
2010 | 4 to MLB | WAR 35.8 | High WAR 33.8, SS Manny Machado, 1st rd
2011 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.4 | High WAR 5.5, RHP Zach Davies, 26th rd
2012 | 3 to MLB | WAR 14.9 | High WAR 11.3, RHP Kevin Gausman, 1st rd
2013 | 8 to MLB | WAR 4.3 | High WAR 2.5, 1B Trey Mancini, 8th rd
2014 | 4 to MLB | WAR 0.1 | High WAR 0.8, RHP David Hess, 5th rd
2015 | 3 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 0.5, OF D. J. Stewart, 1st rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.5) | High WAR (0.5), OF Austin Hayes, 3rd rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
The highest WAR to date goes to 3B Manny Machado (2010, 1st round, 33.8 WAR) with 1999 representing the high total WAR. The most productive players of the 1999 Orioles Draft class were 2B Brian Roberts (1st round, 30.4 WAR) and LHP Erik Bedard (6th round, 17.3 WAR). The Orioles certainly got their money's worth out of two-time All-Star Roberts who spent 13 of his 14 MLB seasons with Baltimore. However, Bedard actually earned the Orioles more overall value than Roberts when one considers that, after providing 12.8 WAR in five seasons with Baltimore, Bedard was straight up traded to the Mariners for five players, two of whom went on to play several years for the team -- OF Adam Jones (31.5 WAR over 11 seasons) and RHP Chris Tillman (9.3 WAR over 10 seasons). Machado was also involved in a straight up trade (with the Dodgers in July 2018) for five players, but since four of the five players are still minor leaguers, it will likely take a long time to determine how that trade works out for the Orioles. However, the trade did not work as intended for the Dodgers; they obtained Machado as a rental player to help them in the World Series, but they fell short and Machado is now a free agent.
2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 32 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 16 Position Players
26 College | 23 Signed | 10 Pitchers | 13 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
12 HS/NS | 8 Signed | 6 Pitchers | 2 Position Players
Notable: The Orioles received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A), but forfeited their second round pick by signing free agent RHP Alex Cobb. Baltimore signed their first 19 picks; the first holdout was 20th round RHP Caleb Kilian out of Texas Tech.
PITCHERS
All of the 16 pitchers signed (10 RHP, 6 LHP) logged at least some playing time. None of these players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. Two of the pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Orioles, both as Top 10 prospects.
🔟 RHP Grayson Rodriguez, 1st round, Central Heights HS (TX), Rk
19.1 IP | 9 G / 8 GS | 1.40 ERA | 1.241 WHIP | 7 BB : 20 K
🔟 RHP Blaine Knight, 3rd round, University of Arkansas, SSA
10.1 IP | 4 G / 4 GS | 2.61 ERA | 1.548 WHIP | 3 BB : 8 K
🔟 Top 10 Prospect
LHP Kevin Magee, 9th round, St. John's University, SSA
38 IP | 15 G / 3 GS | 1.66 ERA | 1.000 WHIP | 10 BB : 35 K
In total, the Orioles 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.97 ERA and a 1.449 WHIP over 330.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
POSITION PLAYERS
Of the 16 position players signed (1B, 2B, 2 3B, 3 SS, 6 OF, 3 C), all but two logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A). Two players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Orioles, one as a Top 10 prospect.
Top Prospects
🔟 SS Cadyn Grenier (R/R), 1st round, Oregon State University, A
43 G | .216/.297/.333/.630 | 17 BB : 53 K
OF Robert Neustrom (L/L), 5th round, University of Iowa, SSA
61 G | .272/.313/.404/.716 | 13 BB : 45 K
🔟 Top 10 Prospect
In total, the Orioles 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .219/.298/.322/.619 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced
GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of early January and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.
PREVIOUSLY
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary
NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
NL West 2018 Draft Summary
COMING NEXT
Boston Red Sox
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary
NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
NL West 2018 Draft Summary
COMING NEXT
Boston Red Sox
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