MLB Draft Deep Dive: Houston Astros

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

HOUSTON ASTROS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 904 | Signed 630 | Pitchers Signed 293 | Position Players Signed 337
Total WAR 251.4
Total Players to MLB 76

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 6 to MLB | WAR 28.8 | High WAR 13.8, 3B Morgan Ensberg, 9th rd
1999 | 3 to MLB | WAR 4.6 | High WAR 2.1, SS Chris Sampson, 8th rd
2000 | 5 to MLB | WAR 5.0 | High WAR 5.9, RHP Chad Qualls, 2nd rd
2001 | 7 to MLB | WAR 1.8 | High WAR 2.7, RHP Matt Albers, 23rd rd
2002 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR 0.4, LHP Mark McLemore, 4th rd
2003 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR 0.4, OF Josh Anderson, 4th rd
2004 | 6 to MLB | WAR 77.9 | High WAR 45.3, 2B Ben Zobrist, 6th rd
2005 | 3 to MLB | WAR 1.4 | High WAR 2.0, LHP Brian Bogusevic, 1st rd
2006 | 2 to MLB | WAR 4.5 | High WAR 5.3, RHP Bud Norris, 6th rd
2007 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2008 | 3 to MLB | WAR 6.6 | High WAR 11.4, C Jason Castro, 1st rd
2009 | 4 to MLB | WAR 45.4 | High WAR 20.4, OF J.D. Martinez, 20th rd
2010 | 4 to MLB | WAR 13.2 | High WAR 4.7, RHP Vince Velasquez, 2nd rd
2011 | 4 to MLB | WAR 20.5 | High WAR 18.7, OF George Springer, 1st rd
2012 | 9 to MLB | WAR 24.3 | High WAR 18.3, SS Carlos Correa, 1st rd
2013 | 3 to MLB | WAR 2.0 | High WAR 1.7, 3B Tyler White, 33rd rd
2014 | 7 to MLB | WAR 3.6 | High WAR 2.1, OF Ramon Laureano, 16th rd
2015 | 3 to MLB | WAR 12.0 | High WAR 12.7, SS Alex Bregman, 1st rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date, both total and individual, is from 2004. There were a couple productive players at the top of this class in 2B Ben Zobrist (6th round, 45.3 WAR) and OF Hunter Pence (2nd round, 29.7 WAR). In July 2006, Zobrist was traded (along with RHP Mitch Talbot) to Tampa Bay for a half season and 0.2 WAR of Aubrey Huff. Sigh.

Pence played in five seasons for Houston (16.2 WAR) before being traded to the Phillies in July 2011 for RHP Jarred Cosart, 1B Jon Singleton, RHP Josh Zeid and OF Domingo Santana. There were more ripple effects from all of this as Cosart's July 2014 trade to the Marlins (along with OF Austin Wates and 2B Kiké Hernandez) got the Astros OF Jake Marisnick, RHP Frances Martes, 3B Colin Moran and a competitive balance pick which turned into OF Daz Cameron who was in turn traded to the Tigers in August 2017 to get the Astros RHP Justin Verlander. (And Moran was part of the January 2018 trade to the Pirates that got the Astros RHP Gerrit Cole in return.) And one more ripple effect of all this ... Santana went to the Brewers (along with LHP Josh Hader, OF Brett Phillips and RHP Adrian Houser) in July 2015 for OF Carlos Gomez and RHP Mike Fiers. Double sigh.

The 2004 Astros class was rounded out with LHP Troy Patton (9th round, 3.2 WAR), OF Drew Sutton (15th round, 0.1 WAR), C J.R. Towles (20th round, -0.1 WAR) and RHP Chad Reineke (13th round, -0.3).

2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 30 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 14 Position Players
31 College | 28 Signed | 15 Pitchers | 13 Position Players
3 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
6 HS/NS | 1 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 0 Position Players

Notable: The Astros signed their top 20 picks (and 27 of their top 28). The top holdout was 21st round RHP Dalton Roach, Minnesota State.

PITCHERS
All of the 16 pitchers signed (15 RHP, 1 LHP) logged at least some playing time. None of these pitchers were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. One player debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Astros.

Top Prospects

RHP Jayson Schroeder, 2nd round, Juanita HS (WA), Rk
18 IP | 7 G / 5 GS | 1.50 ERA | 1.222 WHIP | 9 BB : 18 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Brett Daniels, 17th round, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, SSA
33.1 IP | 11 G / 2 GS | 1.62 ERA | 0.840 WHIP | 7 BB : 36 K

In total, the Astros 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 2.74 ERA and a 1.207 WHIP over 364.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 14 position players signed (1B, 2B, 3B, 2 SS, 6 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. Nine players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, eight to Full Season A and one to Advanced A. Three players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Astros, one as a Top 10 prospect. (Note: OF Ross Adolph, drafted by the Mets in the 12th round in 2018 came to the Astros via trade in January 2019 and was included on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 prospect list for the Astros following the trade.)

Top Prospects

🔟 OF Seth Beer (L/R), 1st round, Clemson University, A+
67 G | .304/.389/.496/.885 | 25 BB : 49 K | 14 2B / 12 HR | 42 RBI

SS Jeremy Pena (R/R), 3rd round, University of Maine at Orono, SSA
36 G | .250/.340/.309/.649 | 18 BB : 19 K

OF Alex McKenna (R/R), 4th round, Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo, A
44 G | .311/.394/.512/.906 | 14 BB : 40 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

In total, the Astros 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .232/.324/.362/.686 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of early January and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
NL West 2018 Draft Summary

AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
AL East 2018 Draft Summary

AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
AL Central 2018 Draft Summary

COMING NEXT
Los Angeles Angels