AL East 2018 Draft Summary

In conjunction with the MLB Draft Deep Dive series that I've been rolling out over the last few weeks (see links below), the following is a down and dirty summary of the early 2018 draft results for the AL East.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST 2018 DRAFT SUMMARY

PITCHING

Pitcher Breakdown
TBR: 20 Signed | 17 C | 1 JC/CC | 2 HS | 14 RHP | 6 LHP
NYY: 19 Signed | 18 C | 1 JC/CC | 18 RHP | 1 LHP

TOR: 18 Signed | 16 C | 1 JC/CC | 1 HS | 17 RHP | 1 LHP

BAL: 16 Signed | 10 C | 6 HS | 10 RHP | 6 LHP
BOS: 13 Signed | 10 C | 2 JC/CC | 1 NS | 10 RHP | 3 LHP

Cumulative Stats for 2018 Draft Class (Pitchers)
BOS: 2.83 ERA | 1.239 WHIP | 295.1 IP | 13 Active Pitchers

TBR: 3.07 ERA | 1.179 WHIP | 563.1 IP | 20 Active Pitchers

TOR: 3.22 ERA | 1.149 WHIP | 389 IP | 16 Active Pitchers
NYY: 3.85 ERA | 1.274 WHIP | 301.1 IP | 16 Active Pitchers
BAL: 3.97 ERA | 1.449 WHIP | 330.1 IP | 16 Active Pitchers

Position Player Breakdown
BAL: 16 Signed | 13 C | 1 JC/CC | 2 HS | 1B | 2B | 2 3B | 3 SS | 6 OF | 3 C
BOS: 15 Signed | 9 C | 6 HS | 1B | 2B | 3 3B | 2 SS | 6 OF | 2 C
NYY: 15 Signed | 10 C | 1 JC/CC | 4 HS | 1B | 3 2B | 3B | 2 SS | 4 OF | 4 C
TBR: 15 Signed* | 10 C | 2 JC/CC | 3 HS | 2 1B | 2 2B | 3B | SS | 6 OF* | 3 C
TOR: 14 Signed* | 10 C | 1 JC/CC | 3 HS | 1B* | 2B | 3B | 3 SS | 4 OF | 4 C

*Add one to the totals to account for two-way players already counted in the pitching totals.

Cumulative Stats for 2018 Draft Class (Position Players)
BOS: .266/.347/.374/.721 | 15 Active Players

TBR: .265/.368/.388/.756 | 16 Active Players

TOR: .245/.348/.371/.719 | 15 Active Players
NYY: .237/.335/.363/.698 | 15 Active Players
BAL: .219/.298/.322/.619 | 14 Active Players

MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects
BOS: 5 Total (C RHP, HS 3B*, 2 HS 3B, HS OF)
BAL: 4 Total (C RHP*, HS RHP*, C SS*, C OF)
NYY: 4 Total (C RHP, JC/CC C, HS C*, HS OF)
TBR: 4 Total (C LHP*, HS LHP*, C 2B, HS OF)
TOR: 3 Total (HS RHP, HS SS/3B*, C OF)

*Top 10

AL EAST DRAFT CLASS NOTES: PITCHERS

Tampa Bay signed the most pitchers from this group and got both quantity and quality in their initial results. The Rays' top pick, a high school lefty, had a particularly good debut as did their second round pick (a two-way player). But it was the middle of the pack that really impressed me and could portend good depth from this college-heavy group going forward. Only one player was promoted beyond Short Season A, but this group combined to pitch a lot of innings in their inaugural season and that should provide a good foundation. All of the remaining affiliates were college-heavy as well with the exception of the Orioles who signed six high school pitchers. Most of the high school players pitched well and performed as expected in rookie league. However, only two of the college players (both with good numbers) had much of a track record at the Short Season A level and none were promoted above that level. And four of the college players pitched 13.1 innings or fewer. It's hard to get much of a feel for the class, but my initial impressions are ambivalent. Three of the Yankees draft picks didn't play at all and ten of their college picks didn't play beyond rookie league. The top three picks performed well at Short Season A, but most of the rest of the class gets an incomplete until they actually put up a few innings and show some success at a higher level. The Blue Jays class doesn't look quite as strong as Tampa, but it does appear to have some nice depth with several lower round pitchers performing nicely. Their top pick, a high school right-hander, only pitched two innings and two other players did not appear in 2018. Boston had the smallest pitching class, but had one of only two players to advance beyond Short Season A out of the entire group. RHP Durbin Feltman made 11 relief appearances at Advanced A in 2018 and appears to be on the fast track for the Sox. Beyond Feltman, it was more of a mixed bag, but there were definitely a couple of bright spots in that mix. However, it is definitely Tampa Bay that stands out in the initial results.

AL EAST DRAFT CLASS NOTES: POSITION PLAYERS


The Red Sox probably have the most interesting group of position players from the 2018 draft. Four of their high school picks appear on their Top 30 prospect list (although the top two only appeared in two games each in 2018) and several of their college players had very strong starts as well. If even a couple of these high school prospects pan out, this could turn out to be a very strong group for Boston. None of the college players were hidden away in rookie ball and two of them were promoted to full season teams. The Yankees also have some interesting younger players at the top of their class who performed as could be expected (and received much more playing time than the Red Sox top players). Further down in the draft, the results are mixed, but there are a few bright spots peppered throughout the group. Tampa Bay and Toronto also picked high school players as their top position player picks. Toronto's SS/3B Jordan Groshans got off to the best start of any of the top high school players out of this group, but there doesn't appear to be much depth in the Blue Jays class based on the early results despite a couple of very nice debuts among the lower picks. On the other hand, Tampa Bay's high school picks didn't exactly wow me in their inaugural seasons, but they had several college players up and down the ranks who showed good promise. The Orioles had two players who didn't appear in 2018 and seven more who batted under the composite group batting average of .219. Not exactly inspiring. Only three players batted over .250 and one of those three was a college player appearing in low rookie league. So once again, not inspiring. Boston does inspire me with their early results, just edging out the Rays as the most interesting group to watch.

Baltimore Orioles Draft Review
Boston Red Sox Draft Review
New York Yankees Draft Review
Tampa Bay Rays Draft Review
Toronto Blue Jays Draft Review

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Baltimore Orioles

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 937 | Signed 603 | Pitchers Signed 311 | Position Players Signed 292
Total WAR 236.7
Total Players to MLB 81

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR 0.2, OF Tim Raines, 6th rd
1999 | 7 to MLB | WAR 53.7 | High WAR 30.4, SS Brian Roberts, 1st rd
2000 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.5) | High WAR (0.5), OF Kurt Birkins, 33rd rd
2001 | 5 to MLB | WAR 12.5 | High WAR 8.1, RHP Jim Johnson, 5th rd
2002 | 5 to MLB | WAR (0.6) | High WAR 3.9, RHP John Maine, 6th rd
2003 | 5 to MLB | WAR 32.1 | High WAR 32.4, OF Nick Markakis, 1st rd
2004 | 3 to MLB | WAR 3.1 | High WAR 2.9, RHP Brad Bergesen, 4th rd
2005 | 4 to MLB | WAR 6.4 | High WAR 6.5, RHP David Hernandez, 16th rd
2006 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.4 | High WAR 11.7, LHP Zach Britton, 3rd rd
2007 | 4 to MLB | WAR 42.3 | High WAR 24.5, RHP Jake Arrieta, 5th rd
2008 | 8 to MLB | WAR 6.2 | High WAR 4.5, C Caleb Joseph, 7th rd
2009 | 4 to MLB | WAR 6.0 | High WAR 5.8, SS Mychal Givens, 2nd rd
2010 | 4 to MLB | WAR 35.8 | High WAR 33.8, SS Manny Machado, 1st rd
2011 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.4 | High WAR 5.5, RHP Zach Davies, 26th rd
2012 | 3 to MLB | WAR 14.9 | High WAR 11.3, RHP Kevin Gausman, 1st rd
2013 | 8 to MLB | WAR 4.3 | High WAR 2.5, 1B Trey Mancini, 8th rd
2014 | 4 to MLB | WAR 0.1 | High WAR 0.8, RHP David Hess, 5th rd
2015 | 3 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 0.5, OF D. J. Stewart, 1st rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR (0.5) | High WAR (0.5), OF Austin Hayes, 3rd rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date goes to 3B Manny Machado (2010, 1st round, 33.8 WAR) with 1999 representing the high total WAR. The most productive players of the 1999 Orioles Draft class were 2B Brian Roberts (1st round, 30.4 WAR) and LHP Erik Bedard (6th round, 17.3 WAR). The Orioles certainly got their money's worth out of two-time All-Star Roberts who spent 13 of his 14 MLB seasons with Baltimore. However, Bedard actually earned the Orioles more overall value than Roberts when one considers that, after providing 12.8 WAR in five seasons with Baltimore, Bedard was straight up traded to the Mariners for five players, two of whom went on to play several years for the team -- OF Adam Jones (31.5 WAR over 11 seasons) and RHP Chris Tillman (9.3 WAR over 10 seasons). Machado was also involved in a straight up trade (with the Dodgers in July 2018) for five players, but since four of the five players are still minor leaguers, it will likely take a long time to determine how that trade works out for the Orioles. However, the trade did not work as intended for the Dodgers; they obtained Machado as a rental player to help them in the World Series, but they fell short and Machado is now a free agent.

2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 32 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 16 Position Players
26 College | 23 Signed | 10 Pitchers | 13 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 1 Position Player
12 HS/NS | 8 Signed | 6 Pitchers | 2 Position Players

Notable: The Orioles received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A), but forfeited their second round pick by signing free agent RHP Alex Cobb. Baltimore signed their first 19 picks; the first holdout was 20th round RHP Caleb Kilian out of Texas Tech.

PITCHERS
All of the 16 pitchers signed (10 RHP, 6 LHP) logged at least some playing time. None of these players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. Two of the pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Orioles, both as Top 10 prospects.

Top Prospects

🔟 RHP Grayson Rodriguez, 1st round, Central Heights HS (TX), Rk
19.1 IP | 9 G / 8 GS | 1.40 ERA | 1.241 WHIP | 7 BB : 20 K

🔟 RHP Blaine Knight, 3rd round, University of Arkansas, SSA
10.1 IP | 4 G / 4 GS | 2.61 ERA | 1.548 WHIP | 3 BB : 8 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

LHP Kevin Magee, 9th round, St. John's University, SSA
38 IP | 15 G / 3 GS | 1.66 ERA | 1.000 WHIP | 10 BB : 35 K

In total, the Orioles 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.97 ERA and a 1.449 WHIP over 330.2 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
Of the 16 position players signed (1B, 2B, 2 3B, 3 SS, 6 OF, 3 C), all but two logged at least some playing time. One player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A). Two players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Orioles, one as a Top 10 prospect.

Top Prospects

🔟 SS Cadyn Grenier (R/R), 1st round, Oregon State University, A
43 G | .216/.297/.333/.630 | 17 BB : 53 K

OF Robert Neustrom (L/L), 5th round, University of Iowa, SSA
61 G | .272/.313/.404/.716 | 13 BB : 45 K

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

In total, the Orioles 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .219/.298/.322/.619 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of early January and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
NL West 2018 Draft Summary

COMING NEXT
Boston Red Sox