MLB Draft Deep Dive: Seattle Mariners

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

SEATTLE MARINERS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 941 | Signed 603 | Pitchers Signed 329 | Position Players Signed 274
Total WAR 200.9
Total Players to MLB 71

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 2 to MLB | WAR 14.2 | High WAR 13.4, LHP Matt Thornton, 1st rd
1999 | 6 to MLB | WAR 14.0 | High WAR 13.1, RHP J. J. Putz, 6th rd
2000 | 2 to MLB | WAR (0.1) | High WAR 0.0, OF Jamal Strong, 6th rd
2001 | 3 to MLB | WAR 2.0 | High WAR 2.1, C Rene Rivera, 2nd rd
2002 | 3 to MLB | WAR 0.3 | High WAR 0.3, OF T. J. Bohn, 30th rd
2003 | 3 to MLB | WAR 34.8 | High WAR 32.4, SS Adam Jones, 1st rd
2004 | 4 to MLB | WAR 4.5 | High WAR 5.6, RHP Michael Saunders, 11th rd
2005 | 3 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 1.8, RHP Anthony Varvaro, 12th rd
2006 | 7 to MLB | WAR 41.1 | High WAR 19.7, RHP Doug Fister, 7th rd
2007 | 3 to MLB | WAR 2.6 | High WAR 3.5, RHP Shawn Kelley, 13th rd
2008 | 3 to MLB | WAR (1.5) | High WAR 1.8, RHP Josh Fields, 1st rd
2009 | 7 to MLB | WAR 34.4 | High WAR 27.9, 2B Kyle Seager, 3rd rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 14.4 | High WAR 10.9, LHP James Paxton, 4th rd
2011 | 4 to MLB | WAR 10.4 | High WAR 6.2, SS Brad Miller, 2nd rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 24.6 | High WAR 9.5, SS Chris Taylor, 5th rd
2013 | 7 to MLB | WAR 3.0 | High WAR 1.4, OF Tyler O'Neill, 3rd rd
2014 | 2 to MLB | WAR 1.8 | High WAR 0.9, LHP Ryan Yarborough (4th rd) & RHP Dan Altavilla (5th rd)
2015 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR 0.0, RHP Andrew Moore, 2nd rd
2016 | 1 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 0.2, RHP Matt Festa, 7th rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest total WAR to date is from 2006 while the high individual WAR goes to OF Adam Jones (1st round 2003, 32.4 WAR). Jones appeared in only 73 games for Seattle at the MLB level before being included in a February 2008 trade (along with RHP Chris Tillman and three other players) to Baltimore for LHP Erik Bedard. Bedard's WAR in three seasons with Seattle was 4.2 while Jones (11 seasons) and Tillman (10 seasons) have produced a combined 40.8 WAR for the Orioles in their time with that team. Jones has been a five-time All-Star for Baltimore and has collected four Gold Gloves and one Silver Slugger award. The Mariners didn't do much better with their 2006 draft class. The three most productive players from that 2006 group are RHP Doug Fister (7th round, 19.7 WAR), RHP Brandon Morrow (1st round, 11.4 WAR) and RHP Chris Tillman (2nd round, 9.3 WAR). Tillman was traded prior to making his MLB debut (see above) and both Fister and Morrow were traded early in their careers (with the returns on both of those trades rather underwhelming). All in all, the seven players from this class to make it to the MLB produced 6.2 WAR for the Mariners.

2018 DRAFT
40 Drafted | 34 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 18 Position Players
30 College | 29 Signed | 11 Pitchers | 18 Position Players
3 JC/CC | 3 Signed | 3 Pitchers | 0 Position Players
7 HS/NS | 2 Signed | 2 Pitchers | 0 Position Player

Notable: The Mariners signed all of their top 34 draft picks with the first miss being 35th round HS RHP Will Gambino (NJ).

PITCHERS
All but one of the 16 pitchers signed (11 RHP, 5 LHP) logged at least some playing time. Six of these pitchers were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, two to Full Season A, three to Advanced A and one to AAA. (The one player "promoted" to AAA was sent there all the way from a rookie league club at the very end of the season for one appearance and shows all the signs of being a "warm body" appearance.) Two of them debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Mariners, one as a Top 10 prospect. Two pitchers (see Noteworthy Debut below) were traded over the offseason.

Top Prospects

🔟 RHP Logan Gilbert, 1st round, Stetson University, DNP

RHP Joey Gerber, 8th round, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, A
25.2 IP | 22 G / 0 GS | 2.10 ERA | 1.130 WHIP | 11 BB : 43 K | 8 Saves

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

LHP Michael Plassmeyer, 4th round, University of Missouri Columbia, SSA
24 IP | 13 G / 12 GS | 2.25 ERA | 0.833 WHIP | 4 BB : 44 K
Plassmeyer was traded to the Rays in November 2018.

RHP Noah Zavolas, 18th round, Harvard University, A+
38.2 IP | 19 G / 0 GS | 3.03 ERA | 1.086 WHIP | 11 BB : 41 K
Zavolas was traded to the Brewers in December 2018.

In total, the Seattle 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.44 ERA and a 1.378 WHIP over 316.1 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All of the 18 position players signed (1B, 3 2B, 3 3B, 2 SS, 6 OF, 3 C) logged at least some playing time. Seven players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level, one to Full Season A, three to Advanced A, one to AA and two to AAA. (One of the AAA promotions was temporary and lasted for only one game. The other was a "promotion" directly from rookie league at the very end of the season, another "warm body" promotion for all appearances.) Two players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Mariners, but one of those (2nd round college OF Josh Stowers) was traded to the Yankees in January 2019. In addition, 2018 Mets 1st round pick OF Jarred Kelenic made the Mariners Top 10 list following his December 2018 trade to the organization.

Top Prospects

C Cal Raleigh (S/R), 3rd round, Florida State University, SSA
38 G | .288/.367/.534/.902 | 18 BB : 29 K | 10 2B / 3B / 8 HR

Noteworthy Debut

OF Keegan McGovern (L/R), 9th round, University of Georgia, A
69 G | .271/.351/.518/.868 | 28 BB : 69 K | 14 2B / 2 3B / 15 HR | 46 RBI

3B Bobby Honeyman (L/R), 29th round, Stoney Brook University, A+
64 G | .336/.370/.460/.830 | 12 BB : 27 K

In total, the Seattle 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .263/.346/.386/.732 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of early January and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
NL West 2018 Draft Summary

AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
AL East 2018 Draft Summary

AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
AL Central 2018 Draft Summary

AL WEST
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics

COMING NEXT
Texas Rangers