What the Heck, Bobby?: 2018 Draft Summary

Earlier this month, I posted a summary of draft results to date for 20 years, starting in 1998 and continuing through 2017. Now it's time to look at the early results of the 2018 draft class. (These summaries emanate from a much deeper team-by-team analysis that was rolled out earlier this year. Links to the team-by-team information can be found at the end of this post.)

This post is an attempt to summarize the initial results of the 2018 draft in order to get an idea as to how a particular draft class plays out over time. This is just the start of an ongoing analysis that will follow this draft class going forward, looking at both the success (or failure) of individual players and how those players may ultimately benefit the team that drafted them (even if the player never plays for the drafting team and that benefit comes in the form of trade value), the makeup of the class, the likelihood of making it to the majors and other such minutiae. I plan to revisit and update information on both the historical and newer draft classes in the next offseason and I'll just see where the data takes me. This project stems from my curiosity about the draft in general and my enjoyment in sorting through myriad pixels in order to ultimately access the bigger picture. (I know. I'm a little weird.)

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference. The player position reflects the primary position at which the player actually played in 2018 (and not necessarily the position at which he was drafted).

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:

Rk = Rookie

SSA = Short Season A

A = Full Season A

A+ = Full Season A Advanced

2018 DRAFT PICKS IN 2018 (POSITION PLAYERS)

Overall: .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line

8 Position Players did not play in 2018 (6 C, 2 HS)

High OPS
Rockies: .291/.371/.479/.850 | 14 Active Players
D'Backs: .288/.374/.440/.815 | 11 Active Players
Dodgers: .275/.367/.433/.800 | 19 Active Players
Twins: .281/.366/.427/.793 | 16 Active Players
Indians: .276/.373/.409/.783 | 14 Active Players
Royals: .282/.364/.412/.776 | 13 Active Players

Low OPS
Orioles: .219/.298/.322/.619 | 14 Active Players
Angels: .239/.317/.350/.667 | 9 Active Players
Cubs: .251/.333/.337/.670 | 15 Active Players
Athletics: .243/.339/.343/.682 | 18 Active Players
Astros: .232/.324/.362/.686 | 14 Active Players
Rangers: .253/.339/.347/.686 | 11 Active Players

2018 INDIVIDUAL DRAFT PICKS IN 2018 (POSITION PLAYERS)

Player's highest level played in 2018 noted*

High Individual Average (Minimum 200 PA)
OF Cal Stevenson (Blue Jays): .369/.511/.523/1.034 | Rk
OF Jarren Duran (Red Sox): .357/.394/.516/.910 | A
1B Zach Shannon (D'Backs): .354/.439/.677/1.116 | Rk
OF Nathan Eaton (Royals): .354/.427/.581/1.008 | Rk
3B C.J. Alexander (Braves): .352/.429/.495/.924 | A+
1B Grant Lavigne (Rockies): .350/.477/.519/.996 | Rk
C Ryan Jeffers (Twins): .344/.444/.502/.946 | A
3B Bobby Honeyman (Mariners): .336/.370/.460/.830 | A+
SS Owen Miller (Padres): .336/.386/.460/.846 | A
2B Coco Montes (Rockies): .333/.413/.513/.926 | Rk
OF Alek Thomas (D'Backs): .333/.395/.463/.858 | Rk

High Individual OPS (Minimum 200 PA)
1B Zach Shannon (D'Backs): .354/.439/.677/1.116 | Rk

OF Nathan Eaton (Royals): 20 2B | 66 G | Rk
1B Nick Gatewood (Padres): 20 2B | 60 G | SSA
1B Dillon Paulson (Dodgers): 20 2B | 58 G | Rk

High Individual Triples
OF Nathan Eaton (Royals): 12 3B | 66 G | Rk
OF Ross Adolph (Mets/Traded to Astros): 12 3B | 61 G | SSA
OF Jarren Duran (Red Sox): 11 3B | 67 G | A
OF Justin Dean (Braves): 9 3B | 60 G | A

High Individual Home Runs
3B Nolan Gorman (Cardinals): 17 HR | 63 G | A
OF Keegan McGovern (Mariners): 15 HR | 69 G | A
1B Chris Williams (Twins): 15 HR | 62 G | Rk
OF Jordan Qsar (Rays): 14 HR | 62 G | SSA
1B Zach Shannon (D'Backs): 14 HR | 54 G | Rk

High Individual RBI
1B Dillon Paulson (Dodgers): 61 RBI | 58 G | Rk
OF Drew Mount (Reds): 58 RBI | 65 G | Rk
C David Fry (Brewers): 57 RBI | 63 G | A
OF Niko Decolati (Rockies): 56 RBI | 69 G | Rk
1B Zach Shannon (D'Backs): 55 RBI | 54 G | Rk

High Individual Stolen Bases
OF Danny Amaral (Pirates): 25 SB | 58 G | SSA
OF Jarren Duran (Red Sox): 24 SB | 67 G | A
OF Kyle Isbel (Royals): 24 SB | 64 G | A
SS Frainyer Chavez (Rangers): 23 SB | 45 G | Rk
OF Adrian Ramos (Blue Jays): 23 SB | 44 G | Rk

High Individual Walks
OF Cal Stevenson (Blue Jays): 64 BB | 59 G | Rk
OF Jordan Qsar (Rays): 50 BB | 62 G | SSA
OF Chandler Taylor (Astros): 46 BB | 63 G | A
1B Grant Lavigne (Rockies): 45 BB | 59 G | Rk
OF Cade Harris (Rockies): 43 BB | 59 G | SSA

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:

Rk = Rookie

SSA = Short Season A

A = Full Season A

A+ = Full Season A Advanced

OVERVIEW

I'm not going to rank the affiliates as to the strength of their draft classes (to this point) because, with so many variables, comparing one system to another can often be the equivalent of comparing apples and kumquats. But there were still a few systems that stood out to me in terms of early results, depth, short-term potential, longer-term potential or a combination of all of those factors. And, although there were several franchises who stood out for pitching, but not position players (or vice versa), these are the ones that impressed me early by showing strength in both areas. (These are in no particular order.)

DIAMONDBACKS
There aren't any projected superstars among the Diamondbacks 2018 pitching class, but their overall initial results up and down the pecking order was suggestive of very good depth from their pitching ranks. And with all but one pitcher having been drafted out of college, this group could start factoring into the Diamondbacks plans in a couple of years. Balancing that out are a trio of Top 10 prospects on the position player front (two high school signees) who got off to great starts in their pro careers (plus an intriguing 15th rounder). Based on initial results, you could see a star or two emerge from the group.

RAYS
Based on initial results, the Rays look to have good depth with both pitching and offense as players throughout the draft impressed me with their inaugural seasons. As both groups were college-heavy, it won't take too long to see how much help this draft class will be able to offer the Rays at the major league level. On top of that, you can add a Top 100 high school lefty with potential star power (Matthew Liberatore) who got off to an excellent start. This could ultimately prove to be a very strong group.

PHILLIES
I really like the depth of the Phillies 2018 pitching draft class, particularly with the good mix of college, juco and high school players performing well at a variety of levels. And with college 3B Alec Bohm leading the way as the Phillies top prospect (and #59 overall in the top 100), most position players performed as well or better than expected in their first seasons.

TIGERS
Again, depth is the key with the Tigers as they went for both quality and quantity in 2018, signing 38 of 40 picks (and all of their top 37 picks). Their pitching was particularly strong with the Tigers top prospect overall RHP Casey Mize (ranked #2 RHP prospect as well) handling himself well against the early challenge to High A competition and strong results throughout the class, including the 35th and 36th round picks. The Tigers were very aggressive in promoting several of their position players and a number of them responded well to the challenge. This early exposure to higher competition could move up the timetable for some of these players to help out in Detroit sooner rather than later.

INDIANS
On the flip side of the coin, I am probably more intrigued by the long-term potential of Cleveland's 2018 draft class than I am by any more immediate success. With that said, there were a number of college-drafted pitchers who performed very nicely in 2018 and were promoted to full season teams as a result. But their top two high school pitching picks (currently #9 and #12 prospects in the system) could ultimately help write the story of how successful this draft class will prove to be. In addition, there are a few high school and juco players on the position player side that could portend longer-term success, particularly Cleveland's #4 prospect C Bo Naylor. This draft class will take a little longer to come into focus, but has the potential to generate a star or two.

RANGERS (WILD CARD)
In my mind, the Rangers 2018 draft class is the most uncertain of all in outcome, but should be extremely interesting to watch play out. The Rangers drafted heavily among high school and juco players and currently have four high schoolers numbering in their Top 30 prospect list, including their #3 prospect RHP Cole Winn (who also resides on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list). A total of 11 of their 31 signed draft picks (including 10 of their pitchers) did not play in 2018 so there's not much of a track record to go by at this point. This draft class could be boom or bust, but in any event, it will likely take a while for it to all play out.

I singled out the above teams because I found the draft classes to have the most potential in both pitching and offense, but there are a number of teams that showed very strongly in one area or the other, but not necessarily in both.

On the pitching side, the Pirates college-heavy 2018 draft class has a number of pitchers who could move quickly through the system. The Blue Jays and Astros both showed good depth with a number of lower round pitchers performing nicely in their inaugural seasons. The Royals had mixed results, but with a whopping six pitching prospects in their Top 30 prospects (and four of those in the Top 10), I certainly expect more from some of these prospects moving forward even if they may have underperformed initially.

On the position player side, the Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers were all very aggressive in promoting players and those players responded well. The Marlins, Brewers and Angels, with so many younger players, may be slower to promote players, but will have a lot of high risk/high reward long-term potential. The Rockies had excellent initial results throughout their 2018 draft class. Boston has a good mix of highly touted high school prospects and college players with very good early success; the Yankees group has a similar mix but more uneven initial results. Even with the (apparent) defection of Kyler Murray to football, the top of the Athletics draft class is impressive (although the lower depth may be a bit questionable). On the other hand, I like the depth of the Mariners class and can see a number of their college-drafted players make fast work of the minors.

Other 2018 draft classes will likely achieve success ultimately, but the initial results may have been less than stellar. And there will certainly be individual players who have the chance to be stars who will emerge from draft classes that boast little else of lasting impact. The story of the 2018 draft is really just starting to be written. Stay tuned ...

PREVIOUS POSTS

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
NL West 2018 Draft Summary

AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
AL East 2018 Draft Summary

AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
AL Central 2018 Draft Summary

AL WEST
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
AL West 2018 Draft Summary

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Thursday, March 21, 2019

2018 Draft Summary

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