Showing posts with label Arizona Diamondbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arizona Diamondbacks. Show all posts

Saturday, January 26, 2019

NL West 2018 Draft Summary

In conjunction with the MLB Draft Deep Dive series that I've been rolling out over the last few weeks (see links below), the following is a down and dirty summary of the early 2018 draft results for the NL West.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST 2018 DRAFT SUMMARY

PITCHING

Pitcher Breakdown
SFG: 19 Signed | 14 C | 5 JC/CC | 16 RHP | 3 LHP
ARI: 18 Signed | 17 C | 1 HS | 17 RHP | 1 LHP
COL: 18 Signed | 18 C | 10 RHP | 8 LHP
SDP: 16 Signed | 10 C | 1 JC/CC | 5 HS | 9 RHP | 7 LHP
LAD: 13 Signed | 10 C | 1 JC/CC | 2 HS | 8 RHP | 5 LHP

Cumulative Stats for 2018 Draft Class (Pitchers)
ARI: 3.09 ERA | 1.230 WHIP | 422 IP | 17 Active Pitchers
LAD: 3.65 ERA | 1.306 WHIP | 285.2 IP | 11 Active Pitchers
COL: 3.70 ERA | 1.322 WHIP | 435.2 IP | 16 Active Pitchers
SFG: 4.04 ERA | 1.348 WHIP | 437 IP | 18 Active Pitchers
SDP: 4.09 ERA | 1.345 WHIP | 297.1 IP | 13 Active Pitchers

Position Player Breakdown
LAD: 19 Signed | 15 C | 4 JC/CC | 2 1B | 2 2B | 3B | SS | 10 OF | 3 C
SFG: 16 Signed | 9 C | 3 JC/CC | 4 HS | 3 3B | 3 SS | 6 OF | 4 C
COL: 15 Signed | 13 C | 1 JC/CC | 1 HS | 1B | 4 2B | 2 3B | SS | 5 OF | 2 C
SDP: 13 Signed | 9 C | 4 HS | 2 1B | 2 2B | 3B | 2 SS | 5 OF | C
ARI: 11 Signed | 9 C | 2 HS | 2 1B | 2 2B | 3B | 2 SS | 2 OF | 2 C

Cumulative Stats for 2018 Draft Class (Position Players)
COL: .291/.371/.479/.850 | 15 Active Players
ARI: .288/.374/.440/.815 | 11 Active Players
LAD: .275/.367/.433/.800 | 19 Active Players
SDP: .264/.349/.379/.728 | 13 Active Players
SFG: .248/.333/.384/.717 | 16 Active Players

MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects
ARI: 6 Total (2 C RHP, HS RHP, HS SS, C OF*, HS OF*)
SDP: 5 Total (C RHP, HS LHP*, C SS, HS SS, C OF)
SFG: 4 Total (C RHP*, C RHP, JC/CC RHP, C C*)
LAD: 3 Total (C RHP, HS RHP, C LHP)
COL: 3 Total (C LHP*, HS 1B*, C SS)

*Top 10

NL WEST DRAFT CLASS NOTES: PITCHERS

The Diamondbacks pitching class put up the best numbers of this group which is not surprising given that all but one of these players were college picks. I would be more impressed had the D'Backs challenged any of these top picks to the higher levels (the 18th round pick was the only player to pitch above Short Season A), but they did have a good number of pitchers who saw a lot of action and that should help them get a jump start on their professional development. Similarly, the Colorado's entire class consisted of college players and none of them were promoted to the higher levels. Three of their five top pitching draft picks were not promoted beyond rookie league clubs (and the other two from the top five didn't play at all) which makes their good cumulative numbers a little less impressive. But this group as a whole also made enough appearances to really get their feet wet as professionals. The Giants pitching class was a mix of college and juco. A few of their higher picks had pedestrian starts to their professional career while several mid and lower round picks performed extremely well. San Francisco's 28th, 31st, 35th and 39th round picks were all promoted to High A by the end of the season for limited time with mostly good results. The performance of some of these mid and lower round pitchers could portend some nice depth to this class. Los Angeles drafted the fewest pitchers from this group and of that already smaller class, two pitchers did not appear in 2018 and one was traded in January 2019. However, the Dodgers were fairly aggressive with those who did play, promoting five of them to Full Season A with mostly good results. The Padres were also aggressive with promoting players, including the promotion of their top pick (a high school lefty) to Full Season A. However, three players from this class didn't play in 2018 and, of those who did play, only two pitched more than 30 innings. I'll be interested to see how these pitchers fare when faced with a full workload in 2019. Overall, I would give Arizona the edge on initial results albeit a very slight edge.

NL WEST DRAFT CLASS NOTES: POSITION PLAYERS

As to position players, Colorado had the best overall numbers as they probably should have given that the group is very college heavy and no one was promoted beyond Short Season A. Their top prospects, including a high school first baseman, got off to a very good start as well. The Diamondbacks had the smallest group, but it was a very solid group overall including excellent starts from those in the Top 30 prospect group. However, none of the players in this group were promoted to full season clubs. Two of those top prospects were high school players; all remaining players in the class were college picks. Conversely, the Dodgers had the largest class of position players. Their cumulative numbers fall in the middle of the group, but actually play up since Los Angeles was much more aggressive than the other clubs in promoting several of these players to a higher level of competition. This class was made up of 15 college players and four juco players. The Padres position players, a mix of college and high school players, had somewhat lackluster debuts with a few exceptions, most notably two of their Top 30 prospects, both shortstops (one high school and one college). Two players of the group were promoted to full season teams. Aside from their number one overall top prospect (C Joey Bart), I was thoroughly underwhelmed by the initial results from San Francisco's draft class. Yes, almost half of the group are high school and juco players, but a total of 11 players were not promoted beyond rookie level and six players didn't make it over the Mendoza line. Obviously, they can all develop into very good players, but the initial results were not impressive. I will give the Rockies the slightest of edges on initial results, but I like the depth of the Dodgers group and the high risk/high reward potential of the Diamondbacks high school draft picks as well.

Arizona Diamondbacks Draft Review
Colorado Rockies Draft Review
Los Angeles Dodgers Draft Review
San Diego Padres Draft Review
San Francisco Giants Draft Review

Monday, January 21, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Arizona Diamondbacks

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 954 | Signed 656 | Pitchers Signed 315 | Position Players Signed 341
Total WAR 400.2
Total Players to MLB 104

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 6 to MLB | WAR 12.6 | High WAR 8.1, LHP Javier Lopez, 4th rd
1999 | 5 to MLB | WAR 23.8 | High WAR 16.8, 1B Lyle Overbay, 18th rd
2000 | 8 to MLB | WAR 30.9 | High WAR 31.0, RHP Brandon Webb, 8th rd
2001 | 6 to MLB | WAR 32.3 | High WAR 17.5, 2B Dan Uggla, 11th rd
2002 | 5 to MLB | WAR 5.3 | High WAR 4.5, C Chris Snyder, 2nd rd
2003 | 4 to MLB | WAR 12.9 | High WAR 10.4, OF Carlos Quentin, 1st rd
2004 | 6 to MLB | WAR 25.2 | High WAR 17.1, SS Stephen Drew, 1st rd
2005 | 4 to MLB | WAR 40.3 | High WAR 35.0, SS Justin Upton, 1st rd
2006 | 9 to MLB | WAR 63.6 | High WAR 54.5, RHP Max Scherzer, 1st rd
2007 | 9 to MLB | WAR 15.0 | High WAR 7.1, RHP Josh Collmenter, 15th rd
2008 | 6 to MLB | WAR 18.5 | High WAR 9.2, LHP Wade Miley, 1st rd
2009 | 12 to MLB | WAR 70.5 | High WAR 40.1, 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 8th rd
2010 | 5 to MLB | WAR 14.3 | High WAR 17.4, OF Adam Eaton, 19th rd
2011 | 5 to MLB | WAR 21.5 | High WAR 14.2, RHP Trevor Bauer, 1st rd
2012 | 3 to MLB | WAR 7.5 | High WAR 6.4, 3B Jake Lamb, 6th rd
2013 | 7 to MLB | WAR 3.1 | High WAR 3.6, RHP Brad Keller, 8th rd
2014 | 2 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 0.3, RHP Touki Toussaint, 1st rd
2015 | 2 to MLB | WAR 2.7 | High WAR 2.9, SS Dansby Swanson, 1st rd
2016 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of RHP Max Scherzer (2006, 1st round, 54.5 WAR). Scherzer appeared in 46 games for the D'Backs between 2008 and 2009 (2.7 WAR) before being included in a three-team trade in December 2009 that sent Scherzer to the Tigers. The Diamondbacks ended up with a half season of RHP Edwin Jackson (0.2 WAR) and three and a half seasons of RHP Ian Kennedy (8.9 WAR) when all was said and done. Factoring in the players received when Jackson and Kennedy were traded doesn't alter the landscape very much and the trade looks very, very lopsided in retrospect. Scherzer broke through in a big way in 2013, winning the American League Cy Young Award that year. He has been named to the All-Star team every year from 2013 through 2018 and won two additional Cy Young Awards in 2016 and 2017 for the Nationals.

The high total WAR was in 2009, thanks in large part to the success of 1B Paul Goldscmidt (2009, 8th round, 40.1 WAR). Goldschmidt made his debut for Arizona in 2011 and played in eight seasons for the Diamondbacks prior to his December 2018 trade to the Cardinals. Goldschmidt was an All-Star from 2013 through 2018 and earned four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves for the D'Backs. 11 other players from that 2009 Draft Class made it to the bigs with the second most productive player being OF A. J. Pollock (1st round, 20.0 WAR). Pollock has spent his entire career to date with Arizona and is currently a free agent.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 29 Signed | 18 Pitchers | 11 Position Players
31 College | 26 Signed | 17 Pitchers | 9 Position Players
2 JC/CC | 0 Signed | 0 Pitchers | 0 Position Players
8 HS/NS | 3 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 2 Position Players

Notable: The Diamondbacks received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A). Arizona failed to sign their top pick (California HS SS Matt McLain), but signed the next 23 picks.

PITCHERS
Of the 18 pitchers signed (17 RHP, 1 LHP), all but one (college lefty Tyler Holton, 9th round) logged at least some playing time. Only one player was promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (to Full Season A). Three of the pitchers debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Diamondbacks.

Top Prospects

RHP Jackson Goddard, 3rd round, University of Kansas, SSA
29 IP | 14 G / 13 GS | 4.03 ERA | 1.069 WHIP | 12 BB : 27 K

RHP Matt Mercer, 5th round, University of Oregon, SSA
29 IP | 13 G / 13 GS | 3.10 ERA | 0.966 WHIP | 7 BB : 38 K

RHP Levi Kelly, 8th round, IMG Academy (FL), Rk
6 IP | 4 G / 4 GS | 0.00 ERA | 0.833 WHIP | 2 BB : 6 K

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Kyler Stout, 18th round, Oral Roberts University, A
32.1 IP | 23 G / 0 GS | 2.23 ERA | 1.206 WHIP | 17 BB : 53 K | 6 Saves

In total, the Diamondbacks 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 3.09 ERA and a 1.230 WHIP over 422 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All 11 position players signed (2 1B, 2 2B, 3B, 2 SS, 2 OF, 2 C) logged at least some playing time. None of the players were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level. Three of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Diamondbacks, two as Top 10 prospects.

Top Prospects

🔟 OF Jake McCarthy (L/L), 1st round, University of Virginia, SSA
58 G | .288/.375/.443/.818 | 23 BB : 41 K | 21 SB : 8 CS | 17 2B / 4 3B / 3 HR

🔟 OF Alek Thomas (L/L), 2nd round, Mount Carmel HS (IL), Rk
56 G | .333/.395/.463/.858 | 24 BB : 37 K | 12 SB : 5 CS | 14 2B / 6 3B / 2 HR

SS Blaze Alexander (R/R), 11th round, IMG Academy (FL), Rk
55 G | .329/.417/.538/.955 | 31 BB : 52 K | 10 SB : 3 CS | 19 2B / 5 3B / 5 HR

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

1B Zack Shannon (R/R), 15th round, Delta State University, Rk
54 G | .354/.439/.677/1.116 | 28 BB : 43 K | 17 2B / 3B / 14 HR | 55 RBI

In total, the Diamondbacks 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .288/.374/.440/.815 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

COMING NEXT
Colorado Rockies