Showing posts with label San Diego Padres. Show all posts
Showing posts with label San Diego Padres. Show all posts

Saturday, January 26, 2019

NL West 2018 Draft Summary

In conjunction with the MLB Draft Deep Dive series that I've been rolling out over the last few weeks (see links below), the following is a down and dirty summary of the early 2018 draft results for the NL West.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST 2018 DRAFT SUMMARY

PITCHING

Pitcher Breakdown
SFG: 19 Signed | 14 C | 5 JC/CC | 16 RHP | 3 LHP
ARI: 18 Signed | 17 C | 1 HS | 17 RHP | 1 LHP
COL: 18 Signed | 18 C | 10 RHP | 8 LHP
SDP: 16 Signed | 10 C | 1 JC/CC | 5 HS | 9 RHP | 7 LHP
LAD: 13 Signed | 10 C | 1 JC/CC | 2 HS | 8 RHP | 5 LHP

Cumulative Stats for 2018 Draft Class (Pitchers)
ARI: 3.09 ERA | 1.230 WHIP | 422 IP | 17 Active Pitchers
LAD: 3.65 ERA | 1.306 WHIP | 285.2 IP | 11 Active Pitchers
COL: 3.70 ERA | 1.322 WHIP | 435.2 IP | 16 Active Pitchers
SFG: 4.04 ERA | 1.348 WHIP | 437 IP | 18 Active Pitchers
SDP: 4.09 ERA | 1.345 WHIP | 297.1 IP | 13 Active Pitchers

Position Player Breakdown
LAD: 19 Signed | 15 C | 4 JC/CC | 2 1B | 2 2B | 3B | SS | 10 OF | 3 C
SFG: 16 Signed | 9 C | 3 JC/CC | 4 HS | 3 3B | 3 SS | 6 OF | 4 C
COL: 15 Signed | 13 C | 1 JC/CC | 1 HS | 1B | 4 2B | 2 3B | SS | 5 OF | 2 C
SDP: 13 Signed | 9 C | 4 HS | 2 1B | 2 2B | 3B | 2 SS | 5 OF | C
ARI: 11 Signed | 9 C | 2 HS | 2 1B | 2 2B | 3B | 2 SS | 2 OF | 2 C

Cumulative Stats for 2018 Draft Class (Position Players)
COL: .291/.371/.479/.850 | 15 Active Players
ARI: .288/.374/.440/.815 | 11 Active Players
LAD: .275/.367/.433/.800 | 19 Active Players
SDP: .264/.349/.379/.728 | 13 Active Players
SFG: .248/.333/.384/.717 | 16 Active Players

MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects
ARI: 6 Total (2 C RHP, HS RHP, HS SS, C OF*, HS OF*)
SDP: 5 Total (C RHP, HS LHP*, C SS, HS SS, C OF)
SFG: 4 Total (C RHP*, C RHP, JC/CC RHP, C C*)
LAD: 3 Total (C RHP, HS RHP, C LHP)
COL: 3 Total (C LHP*, HS 1B*, C SS)

*Top 10

NL WEST DRAFT CLASS NOTES: PITCHERS

The Diamondbacks pitching class put up the best numbers of this group which is not surprising given that all but one of these players were college picks. I would be more impressed had the D'Backs challenged any of these top picks to the higher levels (the 18th round pick was the only player to pitch above Short Season A), but they did have a good number of pitchers who saw a lot of action and that should help them get a jump start on their professional development. Similarly, the Colorado's entire class consisted of college players and none of them were promoted to the higher levels. Three of their five top pitching draft picks were not promoted beyond rookie league clubs (and the other two from the top five didn't play at all) which makes their good cumulative numbers a little less impressive. But this group as a whole also made enough appearances to really get their feet wet as professionals. The Giants pitching class was a mix of college and juco. A few of their higher picks had pedestrian starts to their professional career while several mid and lower round picks performed extremely well. San Francisco's 28th, 31st, 35th and 39th round picks were all promoted to High A by the end of the season for limited time with mostly good results. The performance of some of these mid and lower round pitchers could portend some nice depth to this class. Los Angeles drafted the fewest pitchers from this group and of that already smaller class, two pitchers did not appear in 2018 and one was traded in January 2019. However, the Dodgers were fairly aggressive with those who did play, promoting five of them to Full Season A with mostly good results. The Padres were also aggressive with promoting players, including the promotion of their top pick (a high school lefty) to Full Season A. However, three players from this class didn't play in 2018 and, of those who did play, only two pitched more than 30 innings. I'll be interested to see how these pitchers fare when faced with a full workload in 2019. Overall, I would give Arizona the edge on initial results albeit a very slight edge.

NL WEST DRAFT CLASS NOTES: POSITION PLAYERS

As to position players, Colorado had the best overall numbers as they probably should have given that the group is very college heavy and no one was promoted beyond Short Season A. Their top prospects, including a high school first baseman, got off to a very good start as well. The Diamondbacks had the smallest group, but it was a very solid group overall including excellent starts from those in the Top 30 prospect group. However, none of the players in this group were promoted to full season clubs. Two of those top prospects were high school players; all remaining players in the class were college picks. Conversely, the Dodgers had the largest class of position players. Their cumulative numbers fall in the middle of the group, but actually play up since Los Angeles was much more aggressive than the other clubs in promoting several of these players to a higher level of competition. This class was made up of 15 college players and four juco players. The Padres position players, a mix of college and high school players, had somewhat lackluster debuts with a few exceptions, most notably two of their Top 30 prospects, both shortstops (one high school and one college). Two players of the group were promoted to full season teams. Aside from their number one overall top prospect (C Joey Bart), I was thoroughly underwhelmed by the initial results from San Francisco's draft class. Yes, almost half of the group are high school and juco players, but a total of 11 players were not promoted beyond rookie level and six players didn't make it over the Mendoza line. Obviously, they can all develop into very good players, but the initial results were not impressive. I will give the Rockies the slightest of edges on initial results, but I like the depth of the Dodgers group and the high risk/high reward potential of the Diamondbacks high school draft picks as well.

Arizona Diamondbacks Draft Review
Colorado Rockies Draft Review
Los Angeles Dodgers Draft Review
San Diego Padres Draft Review
San Francisco Giants Draft Review

Thursday, January 24, 2019

MLB Draft Deep Dive: San Diego Padres

In order to satisfy my innate curiosity as it pertains to the MLB Draft, I have taken a comprehensive look at the 2018 draft for each of the 30 MLB organizations. But I also wanted to get an idea of what each of the teams had done for the 20 years prior so that is included as a prelude to the 2018 information. I'll be looking first at each team in each division, starting with the National League East, and then I'll follow up with a an overall look at both the historical draft results to date and the early 2018 results.

My goal is to get a better idea of the big picture as to how the systems compare in terms of draft results, as well as how a good or bad draft class affects a system, the overall impact of the draft on the baseball talent pool and the circuitous ways in which draft picks are used to bolster a system for which they may never even play. This project is just a first step. I intend to expand on this information over time (including a later revisit of the 2018 class and the addition of the 2019 class next offseason) and I will share my findings as I do so.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Historical Draft Results from 1998 through 2017 (TO DATE)
Drafted 912 | Signed 623 | Pitchers Signed 306 | Position Players Signed 317
Total WAR 282.3
Total Players to MLB 118

Note: The following players are listed at the position at which they were originally drafted.

1998 | 7 to MLB | WAR 12.7 | High WAR 8.0, RHP Brian Lawrence, 17th rd
1999 | 4 to MLB | WAR 37.4 | High WAR 39.6, RHP Jake Peavy, 15th rd
2000 | 6 to MLB | WAR 3.4 | High WAR 3.8, 3B Xavier Nady, 2nd rd
2001 | 4 to MLB | WAR 22.2 | High WAR 18.3, SS Jason Bartlett, 13th rd
2002 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.7 | High WAR 8.5, SS Khalil Greene, 1st rd
2003 | 6 to MLB | WAR 3.8 | High WAR 3.7, RHP Tim Stauffer, 1st rd
2004 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.4 | High WAR 4.4, RHP Brandon Kintzler, 40th rd
2005 | 8 to MLB | WAR 46.0 | High WAR 26.1, 3B Chase Headley, 2nd rd
2006 | 7 to MLB | WAR 32.6 | High WAR 15.7, 3B David Freese, 9th rd
2007 | 10 to MLB | WAR 38.3 | High WAR 33.6, RHP Corey Kluber, 4th rd
2008 | 14 to MLB | WAR 20.9 | High WAR 12.7, 3B Logan Forsythe, 1st rd
2009 | 6 to MLB | WAR 1.4 | High WAR 3.6, RHP Miles Mikolos, 7th rd
2010 | 6 to MLB | WAR 12.2 | High WAR 10.9, 2B Jedd Gyorko, 2nd rd
2011 | 11 to MLB | WAR 6.3 | High WAR 3.9, RHP Joe Ross, 1st rd
2012 | 5 to MLB | WAR 10.4 | High WAR 6.2, OF Mallex Smith, 5th rd
2013 | 6 to MLB | WAR 4.8 | High WAR 3.7, OF Hunter Renfroe, 1st rd
2014 | 2 to MLB | WAR 10.8 | High WAR 10.4, SS Trea Turner, 1st rd
2015 | 4 to MLB | WAR (2.2) | High WAR 0.1, RHP Trey Wingenter, 17th rd
2016 | 2 to MLB | WAR 0.2 | High WAR 0.5, LHP Joey Lucchesi, 4th rd
2017 | 0 to MLB | WAR 0.0 | High WAR N/A

The highest WAR to date is that of RHP Jake Peavy (1999, 15th round, 39.6 WAR). Peavy played for the Padres for eight seasons, earning two All-Star nods and the National League Cy Young Award in 2007, before being traded to the White Sox in July 2009. Peavy was named an All-Star for the third time in 2012 while with the White Sox and won World Series hardware in 2013 (Boston) and 2014 (Giants) before hanging it up at the end of the 2016 season.

The total high WAR to date is from 2005, with 3B Chase Headley (2nd round, 26.1 WAR), OF Will Venable (7th round, 12.5 WAR) and C Nick Hundley (2nd round, 7.2 WAR) the most productive members of the class. All three of these players spent several years playing for the Padres, providing San Diego with a solid return on the draft.

2018 DRAFT
41 Drafted | 29 Signed | 16 Pitchers | 13 Position Players
20 College | 19 Signed | 10 Pitchers | 9 Position Players
3 JC/CC | 1 Signed | 1 Pitcher | 0 Position Players
18 HS/NS | 9 Signed | 5 Pitcher | 4 Position Players

Notable: The Padres received one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round A) and one additional draft pick for Competitive Balance (Round B) as well through a trade with the Twins, but forfeited their second round pick by signing free agent 1B Eric Hosmer. San Diego failed to sign three of their top 20 picks with the top holdout being 13th round Illinois HS LHP Antoine Kelly.

PITCHERS
Of the 16 pitchers signed (9 RHP, 7 LHP), all but three logged at least some playing time. Seven of the pitchers were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (five to Full Season A and two to Advanced A). Two debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Padres, one as a Top 10 prospect.

Top Prospects

🔟 LHP Ryan Weathers, 1st round, Loretta HS (TN), A
18.1 IP | 7 G / 7 GS | 3.44 ERA | 1.255 WHIP | 4 BB : 18 K

RHP Dylan Coleman, 4th round, Missouri State University, A
22.2 IP | 18 G / 0 GS | 3.18 ERA | 1.368 WHIP | 11 BB : 29 K | 4 Saves

🔟 Top 10 Prospect

Noteworthy Debut

RHP Gabe Mosser, 27th round, Shippensburg University of Pennsylvania, A
42.1 IP | 19 G / 0 GS | 1.70 ERA | 1.039 WHIP | 10 BB : 59 K

In total, the Padres 2018 Draft pitchers combined for a 4.09 ERA and a 1.345 WHIP over 297.1 innings as compared to the 3.67 ERA and 1.299 WHIP (average of 376.2 innings per affiliate) compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

POSITION PLAYERS
All 13 position players signed (2 1B, 2 2B, 3B, 2 SS, 5 OF, C) logged at least some playing time. Two were promoted beyond the Short Season A* level (one to Full Season A and one to Advanced A). Three of the position players debuted on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospect list for the Padres.

Top Prospects

SS Xavier Edwards (S/R), 1st round, North Broward Prep HS (FL), SSA
45 G | .346/.453/.409/.862 | 31 BB : 25 K | 22 SB : 1 CS

OF Grant Little (R/R), 2nd round, Texas Tech University, SSA
39 G | .262/.351/.315/.666 | 20 BB : 28 K

SS Owen Miller (R/R), 3rd round, Illinois State University, A
75 G | .336/.386/.460/.846 | 19 BB : 41 K | 19 2B / 3 3B / 4 HR

Noteworthy Debut

1B Nick Gatewood (L/R), 11th round, Georgia State University, SSA
60 G | .275/.315/.429/.744 | 14 BB : 59 K | 20 2B / 3B / 5 HR
(Gatewood played most of his games at DH)

In total, the Padres 2018 Draft position players combined to hit .264/.349/.379/.728 as compared to .261/.349/.386/.735 batting line compiled by the total 2018 Draft class in 2018.

*Notes on players include the highest level achieved for the 2018 season using the following abbreviations:
Rk = Rookie
SSA = Short Season A
A = Full Season A
A+ = Full Season A Advanced

GENERAL NOTES: Information was obtained from Baseball-Reference and the MLB Draft History site. The occasional discrepancy in historical information was resolved to the best of my ability by delving into the player information available on B-R. On the historical information, the player position in the totals reflects the position at which the player was drafted (and not any subsequent change of position). On the 2018 information, the player position reflects the primary position played in 2018 for all players who were signed and the position at which the player was drafted for those who did not sign. Prospect listings on MLB Pipeline were as of late December and may not reflect any subsequent changes to that site.

PREVIOUSLY

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
NL East 2018 Draft Summary

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central 2018 Draft Summary

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers

COMING NEXT
San Francisco Giants